JPY/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish Reversal in Play🔎 Technical Breakdown:
1. Rising Wedge Formation:
The pair has been trading within a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price makes higher highs and higher lows but with diminishing momentum. The wedge is visible from the swing low on May 13, where price began to climb aggressively but within increasingly narrow price action. This narrowing range signals weakening bullish strength.
2. Key Resistance Zone:
The wedge forms right below a Major Resistance Zone marked earlier in the chart (around 0.007050), where price had previously faced heavy selling pressure. This adds confluence to the bearish bias, as the zone historically acted as a turning point.
3. SR Interchange Zone:
Below the wedge lies a Support-turned-Resistance (SR) Interchange level, a critical price area where past support may now act as resistance if the price attempts to retrace. This is a commonly watched level by institutional and technical traders.
4. Breakdown Confirmation:
The price has broken below the wedge's lower trendline, which is often considered the breakdown signal. A valid breakdown typically includes a close outside the wedge body followed by a retest or continuation.
5. Bearish Target:
The projected move is toward 0.006796, derived by measuring the wedge height and applying it from the breakdown point. This level aligns with a historical support zone, adding more confluence to the target.
🧠 Psychological & Structural View:
Bullish exhaustion: Buyers pushed price higher into resistance, but momentum slowed, signaling exhaustion.
Trapped longs: Traders who entered late in the wedge may now be trapped, potentially accelerating a sell-off as they exit.
Smart money behavior: Rising wedges near resistance often signal distribution by smart money before a drop.
🛠️ Trading Plan Suggestion (Not Financial Advice):
Entry: After a clear wedge breakdown, consider short entries on a retest of the broken trendline or a bearish candle confirmation.
SL: Above the wedge high or major resistance zone.
TP: Staggered exits below 0.006850 and final target around 0.006796.
🔁 What to Watch For:
Retest of the wedge breakdown (potential short entry zone)
Momentum confirmation via volume or bearish candles
Price reaction at SR Interchange and final support target
🧠 Minds Section – Condensed Summary
JPY/USD formed a Rising Wedge below major resistance, signaling bullish exhaustion. Price has broken down from the wedge, confirming bearish momentum. A clean breakdown targets 0.006796, with SR interchange acting as a minor support. A retest of the wedge breakdown could offer a good short opportunity.
JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY – Bearish Channel Holds, Eyes on Support BreakUSDJPY is currently trading within a clearly defined bearish channel on the 3H timeframe, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. After a slight bounce from the 142.50 support zone, the price is now heading toward the 143.30 resistance area — which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This is a zone likely to face rejection and renewed selling pressure.
On the news front, Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over prolonged budget deficits, putting pressure on the USD. Although the interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ still favors the dollar, current market sentiment is making it harder for USDJPY to maintain a strong rally.
If the 143.30 resistance holds, the price is likely to be pushed back down to retest the 141.07 support zone — a previous low and the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed break below this level would signal further downside, with the next target below the 140.00 mark.
USDJPY Short Setup – Bearish Reversal AnticipatedI'm currently looking for short opportunities on USDJPY. Price action is showing signs of exhaustion near key resistance levels, and I expect a potential reversal in the coming sessions. I'm watching for confirmation via bearish candlestick patterns and possible breakdowns from support zones.
Entry - 142.740
Target area: 142.240
Stop-loss: 142.940
Long Entry Idea 📈 USD/JPY Weekly Swing Setup
🗓️ Bias: Long from Weekly Demand Zone
📍 Context: Price is approaching a higher-timeframe demand block with a strong reaction expected. Structure shows repeated sweeps and rejection near weekly EQ. Looking to catch the macro reversal from the lows before liquidity floods the upside.
🟦 ENTRY ZONE
141.300 – 140.900
Weekly demand + prior structural sweep + inside discount territory
🔻 STOP LOSS
139.700
Below major liquidity shelf + protected weekly low
🧨 Risk: ~160 pips
🛡 Use position sizing accordingly
🎯 TAKE PROFITS
Target Price Reason
TP1 143.951 High chance reclaim to minor resistance
TP2 144.921 Weekly EQ zone
TP3 146.178 Clean inefficiency + OB fill
TP4 149.385 Final premium zone / supply
📌 Trade Narrative
Looking for a long setup off weekly demand between 141.300–140.900.
Expecting bullish reversal and liquidity run through prior highs.
Structure is showing signs of exhaustion on the bearish leg, and weekly CHoCH zones have formed.
TP1 holds ~80% probability as it aligns with daily inefficiency and structure.
Remaining targets scale through unfilled FVGs into premium territory.
🧠 Risk-Reward
SL: 139.700
Entry: 141.300
TP1: 143.951 → ~2.6R
TP4: 149.385 → ~5R+
USD/JPY H4 | Overhead pressures remain?USD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 143.27 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 144.42 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 141.96 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.12
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 140.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 144.58
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Falling towards pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 140.70
1st Support: 137.16
1st Resistance: 145.54
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USDJPY: A bigger decline is expected in a broader pictureUSDJPY: A bigger decline is expected in a broader picture
On the USDJPY chart I have outlined some strong technical elements:
Key target levels are found near 141,200 and 138,000
Downward momentum is expected to increase, driven by macroeconomic factors related to Trump’s tariffs and the BOJ, which is also facing potential problems and may increase its bond-buying program.
Another topic is related to the BOJ’s interest rates. With the increase in CPI data reported last week, the chances of the BOJ raising rates again are increasing.
The price is currently around 142.55, and a break below the first support area found on the left side of the chart could signal further declines.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USD/JPY Breakdown Incoming? 4 Powerful Signals Say 'Short Now'! The current landscape for USD/JPY signals a potential bearish reversal, supported by a convergence of technical, sentiment, and fundamental factors. Following a strong bullish leg from the 140 zone, price has reached the 146–147 resistance area, where it is currently being rejected. Price action has broken below the ascending channel that began in early April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum and a possible transition into a deeper corrective phase.
From the COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective, the picture aligns with this bias. Non-commercials on the USD Index (DXY) are aggressively reducing exposure on both long and short sides, resulting in a net position of -615 contracts. This reflects growing uncertainty or waning confidence in dollar strength as U.S. monetary policy enters a potential pivot zone. Meanwhile, JPY futures still show a strong net long position by speculators (194,226 long vs. 21,958 short), even after a significant long liquidation of over 9,700 contracts. Commercial traders, typically positioned opposite to trend, remain heavily net short—hinting at possible strength ahead for the yen.
Seasonality adds further weight: May is historically a bearish month for USD/JPY. The 5, 10, and 15-year averages all show negative returns, with a structural downside tendency, especially in the final two weeks of the month.
Retail sentiment further supports this case. Data shows that 68% of retail traders are currently long USD/JPY. Interpreting this through a contrarian lens, it implies growing downside potential, as over-positioned retail traders often precede a move in the opposite direction.
Lastly, technical analysis (daily timeframe) reinforces the bearish scenario. The break below the bullish channel invalidates the recent structure, and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to move down before hitting oversold levels. Immediate support zones lie between 143 and 141. A potential retest of 145.80–146.30 would offer a favorable entry for fresh shorts in line with a developing bearish swing structure.
🎯 Conclusion
All elements—technical structure, COT data, seasonal weakness, and retail sentiment—are converging toward a bearish USD/JPY outlook. Institutional traders are cutting dollar longs, seasonal forces are negative, and retail positioning is overly long. With price structure now broken, the bearish bias is well supported, targeting 143 first and 141 as a deeper move, pending price action confirmation.
USDJPY Just Flipped — Liquidity Has a New Target🧠 Smart Money Breakdown: USDJPY | 15-Min Chart
We’ve got a textbook bearish reversal setup forming right now on USDJPY, and Smart Money traders are paying close attention.
🔄 1. Change of Character (ChoCh)
The first key sign was a ChoCh, which flipped the internal structure from bullish to bearish. This signals a potential shift in market control from buyers to sellers — Smart Money often initiates big moves after such a flip.
🟫 2. Bearish Order Block + Rejection Wick
Price pulled back right into a fresh bearish Order Block (OB) around the 148.056–148.337 zone. This OB lines up perfectly with the upper trendline + internal liquidity area.
Price is now rejecting hard from this level, signaling Smart Money sell-side pressure.
🕳 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Below
Below current price lies a clean FVG, serving as a magnet for price. Smart Money often targets these imbalances to rebalance the market.
The gap extends from around 146.200 to 147.400 — with Sell Side Liquidity resting right below at 145.872. That’s the likely kill zone. 💀
📐 4. Trade Setup (R:R Approx. 3.5:1)
🔼 Entry Zone: 147.980–148.050 (inside OB)
❌ Stop Loss: Just above OB: 148.400
✅ Target: 145.872 (Sell Side Liquidity sweep)
Perfect for swing traders and intraday SMC setups.
📊 Strategy:
Look for:
Bearish engulfing candle confirmation
Break of minor internal low (lower TF BOS)
Entry on OB rejection with tight SL above high
Bonus: Enter partials on FVG fill, hold runner to liquidity.
📎 Confluences:
✅ ChoCh confirmed
✅ Bearish OB
✅ Price rejecting from premium zone
✅ FVG below = imbalance magnet
✅ Sell-side liquidity clearly marked
⚠️ Risk Reminder:
Let price show intent before jumping in
Use confirmation, not assumption
Trade what the chart says, not what you hope
🔚 Summary:
Smart Money has flipped the script. With a strong ChoCh, OB rejection, and an FVG inviting price lower, this setup screams bearish continuation.
🔻 Expecting a clean run into liquidity. Stay sharp. 🧠
💬 Drop a “💀” if you’re eyeing the same setup.
📈 Follow for more clean SMC plays weekly.
USDJPY: Smart Money Reloads at Demand ZoneThis pair is showing some next-level institutional behavior right now, and the play is looking ripe for a long position — here's why:
📉 Previous Sell-Off = Liquidity Engineering
USDJPY had a strong downward leg creating a perfect internal liquidity pool, then took out that internal high (marked by triple liquidity tags 💵💵💵) just above a descending channel. That was your classic fakeout / inducement trap.
🎯 Price Tapped Into a Fresh Bullish Order Block
Price dipped deep into a refined OB (purple zone) aligned with the lower channel and then wicked hard out of it. That move created a bullish rejection wick, confirming buyer interest from smart money.
You can see price forming a micro HL structure at the edge of the demand zone — premium setup for continuation.
📍 Key Confluences:
✅ OB sits right around the mid-channel EQ
✅ Demand zone is built on top of a strong low (142.680 area)
✅ Strong risk-to-reward setup aiming for weak high and buy-side liquidity
✅ Rejection aligns with a bullish change of character (ChoCh) from lower timeframes
💥 Targets:
🔹 TP1 - Weak High at 144.400
🔹 TP2 - Buy Side Liquidity sweep at 145.514
🔹 Extended Target - Ride it to channel top / HTF imbalance fill above 146.000
📈 Trade Idea Summary:
Entry Zone: Anywhere in the OB range from 143.554 to 143.189
Stop Loss: Below 143.000 or the strong low
Risk-Reward: Easily 1:5+ if targeting full range move
🚨 Why It Matters:
This chart screams smart money accumulation at the bottom of a channel. Retail traders might still be shorting the retracement — but smart money is loading longs while price consolidates at demand.
If price clears the weak high, it could ignite a bullish rally into the upper supply zones where liquidity lies.
💬 Comment "UJ MOVE" if you're entering this sniper long!
🔁 Repost this if you’re tracking it with your team!
USDJPY 4HFollowing last week’s analysis , the 143.82 target was reached and the bearish trend is continuing.
However, a pullback up to 144.5 is possible, which may offer a better price for selling.
Next downside targets are:
141.83
140.32
139.00
And further down: 136.15, where we expect a strong bullish reaction and a possible buy opportunity.
Longer-term targets like 130.00 and even below 124.40 are also in the picture, but we move step by step.
The analysis will be updated with new data.
USD-JPY Free Signal For Monday! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY is about to retest
A horizontal support level
Around 142.000 and after
The retest on Monday we
Will be able to go long on
The pair with the Take
Profit of 143.331 and the
Stop Loss of 141.939
Buy!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Bank Bullish Heist Plan (Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
Place buy limit orders most recent or swing, low level for Pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (138.500) Day/Swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 147.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💸USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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USDJPY Short Setup – Bearish Breakout WatchBias: ✅ Strong Sell
Timeframe: 4H
Pair: USDJPY
Week: 26–30 May 2025
🔍 Technical Setup:
USDJPY is sitting on a critical support zone around 142.55. A decisive break and 4H close below this level would confirm a bearish continuation.
Entry: Break below 142.55
Stop Loss: Above resistance at 142.80
Take Profit: Major support around 140.05
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~4R
Structure: Lower highs, pressure on demand – momentum building
🧠 Macro Confluence:
📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed, worsening macro (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓)
💴 JPY Strength: Seasonal bias, bullish COT positioning, risk-off sentiment
🧾 COT: JPY net long positions at 92% RSI
📊 Conditional Scores: JPY ↑, USD ↓
⚠️ Risk Sentiment: VIX 22.68 – risk-off favors JPY
⚠️ Risk Notes:
Wait for confirmation candle before entry
Watch FOMC + GDP (USD) for volatility spikes
Consider scaling in on retest of broken support
📌 Let the level break before jumping in. Precision matters.
Share your thoughts or charts below 👇