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USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Money Heist (Bullish)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Market Heist. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk YELLOW MA Zone. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (143.000) Day trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 147.000 💰💵💸USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝ 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰🗞️🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
Japan's Bond Market Crisis: A Global WarningIntroduction: The Shattering of an Illusion Japan’s government bond market, the world’s second-largest, has long been a cornerstone of global financial stability. With a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 260%, Japan’s fiscal structure has relied on a captive bond market, a compliant central bank, and a political system willing to defer fiscal reckoning. Yet, in May 2025, this delicately balanced system began to unravel. For two consecutive days, Japan’s 30-year and 40-year government bonds (JGBs) found no buyers, marking a historic collapse in confidence. The 20-year JGB auction recorded its weakest demand since 2012, with yields on 20-, 30-, and 40-year bonds soaring to multi-decade highs. This isn’t a minor market hiccup—it’s a structural breakdown with global implications. This article explores the causes, consequences, and global ramifications of Japan’s bond market crisis, positioning it as a warning for other heavily indebted nations, particularly the United States. We’ll examine the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) yield curve control (YCC) policy, the erosion of fiscal credibility, the unwinding of the yen carry trade, and the ripple effects on global bond markets, the US dollar, and gold as a safe-haven asset. By dissecting these dynamics, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of why Japan’s crisis matters and how it could foreshadow a broader sovereign debt reckoning. The Anatomy of Japan’s Bond Market Breakdown A Captive Market Unravels Japan’s bond market has been a model of repression for decades. Domestic investors—pension funds, banks, and insurance companies—have been compelled to hold JGBs due to limited investment alternatives and cultural preferences for stability. The BoJ, holding 43.3% of JGBs as of January 2025, has underpinned this system through massive bond purchases, ensuring low yields even as debt ballooned to 1.35 quadrillion yen ($8.84 trillion). However, this captive market is no longer captive. The May 2025 auctions revealed a stark reality: investors are recoiling. The 20-year JGB auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio—the measure of demand—plummet to its lowest since 2012, with the spread between investor bids and government offers (the “tail”) reaching its worst level since 1987. Yields on 20-year bonds hit 2.555% (highest since 2000), 30-year bonds reached 3.185% (a record since 1999), and 40-year bonds surged to 3.635% (an all-time high). These spikes reflect a market no longer willing to absorb Japan’s debt at suppressed yields. The End of Yield Curve Control The BoJ’s yield curve control (YCC) policy, introduced in 2016, capped 10-year JGB yields to maintain low borrowing costs. By purchasing bonds en masse, the BoJ suppressed volatility and ensured market liquidity. However, as inflation rose above the BoJ’s 2% target (reaching 3.6% overall CPI in 2025), the central bank began tapering its purchases, signaling a shift from ultra-loose policy. This tapering has exposed the fragility of YCC. The long end of the yield curve—30- and 40-year bonds—is most sensitive to inflation and fiscal risk. As the BoJ steps back, market forces are driving yields higher, undermining the central bank’s control. The lack of buyers for super-long JGBs highlights a crisis of confidence in Japan’s fiscal sustainability, exacerbated by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s comparison of Japan’s fiscal state to Greece’s during its 2010 debt crisis. Fiscal Recklessness and Political Inertia Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio, at 263%, is among the highest globally. Decades of deficit spending, fueled by quantitative easing and political reluctance to implement austerity, have created a fiscal powder keg. Calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of the July 2025 upper house election further erode investor trust, as they signal increased borrowing without structural reforms. Prime Minister Ishiba’s resistance to these cuts has done little to restore confidence, as markets demand a credible path to fiscal balance. Global Implications: The Yen Carry Trade and Liquidity Shock The Collapse of the Yen Carry Trade The yen carry trade—borrowing in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets—has been a cornerstone of global liquidity since the 1990s. Japanese investors, seeking returns unavailable domestically, poured trillions into US Treasuries, emerging market bonds, and other assets. However, rising JGB yields are reversing this flow. As Japanese yields approach or exceed foreign yields (e.g., 30-year JGBs at 3.185% vs. US 30-year Treasuries at 5%), investors are repatriating capital, unwinding carry trades. This unwinding is a global margin call. Emerging markets, reliant on Japanese capital, face sudden outflows, increasing FX volatility. The yen’s strengthening, as capital returns to Japan, disrupts global currency markets. In the US, the Treasury market—dependent on foreign buyers like Japan—faces pressure as Japanese institutions sell or reduce purchases of US bonds. Echoes in the US Treasury Market The US is not immune. A recent 20-year Treasury auction saw weak demand, with primary dealers absorbing 17% of issuance—a sign of desperation. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1%, reflecting rising borrowing costs. Moody’s downgrade of US debt to Aa1 from Aaa, citing a $36 trillion debt burden and unsustainable deficits, has amplified concerns. President Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” reviving 2017 tax cuts, is projected to add $3.3 trillion to US debt by 2034, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 125%. With $9 trillion in US debt maturing within the next 12 months, the Treasury market faces a refinancing challenge of unprecedented scale. If foreign buyers, including Japanese institutions, step back, the US could face a structural demand breakdown, forcing higher yields and tightening financial conditions. The Sovereign Debt Crisis Blueprint Japan as the Fuse, US as the Bomb Japan’s bond market crisis is a blueprint for what could unfold in the US. Both nations share structural vulnerabilities: high debt-to-GDP ratios, reliance on central bank intervention, and political dysfunction. Japan’s breakdown demonstrates that even a captive market can rebel when trust erodes. The BoJ’s loss of control over the yield curve mirrors potential risks for the Federal Reserve, which faces rising long-end yields despite its efforts to manage expectations. The metaphor of Japan as the fuse and the US as the bomb is apt. Japan’s crisis is a warning shot, but the US—given its role as the world’s largest bond market ($51 trillion) and the dollar’s reserve currency status—represents a far larger systemic risk. A US debt crisis would disrupt global bond markets, equity valuations (e.g., the S&P 500’s recent wobble), and liquidity flows. The Role of Bond Vigilantes Bond vigilantes—investors who sell bonds to discipline profligate governments—are reawakening. In Japan, their absence from JGB auctions signals a rejection of fiscal recklessness. In the US, rising Treasury yields and weak auction demand suggest vigilantes are saddling up. Central banks’ ability to suppress yields is waning, exposing markets to the harsh reality of supply and demand. The US Dollar and Gold: A Shifting Landscape The Dollar’s Eroding Trust The US dollar’s dominance is not immediately threatened—neither the euro nor the renminbi offers a viable alternative due to fragmentation and control, respectively. However, self-inflicted wounds—fiscal recklessness, political gridlock, and the dollar’s weaponization in trade disputes—are eroding trust. A structural breakdown in Treasury demand, driven by Japan’s repatriation or global risk repricing, could push US borrowing costs higher, weakening the dollar’s appeal. Gold as a Judgment on Fiat Gold is resurging as a safe-haven asset amid this turmoil. Unlike sovereign bonds, gold offers no coupon, no intervention, and no deficits—it simply exists. As trust in central banks and fiat currencies falters, gold’s appeal grows. Bitcoin, another scarce asset, has hit $107,322, reflecting similar dynamics, but gold’s historical stability and lack of counterparty risk make it a preferred hedge. Analysts like Stack Hodler argue that central bank credibility is “shattering in real time,” driving demand for gold and other neutral assets. Conclusion: Preparing for the Exit Japan’s bond market breakdown is not an isolated event—it’s a warning for the global financial system. The BoJ’s loss of yield curve control, the collapse of the yen carry trade, and the erosion of fiscal credibility signal the end of an era of sovereign bond repression. The US, with its ballooning debt and reliance on foreign buyers, is on a similar trajectory. As trust in central planning wanes, capital will flee to assets like gold, which stand outside the fiat system. Investors must prepare an exit plan. Diversifying into gold, reducing exposure to long-dated bonds, and monitoring central bank actions are critical steps. Japan’s crisis is the fuse; the US could be the bomb. When trust in sovereign debt crumbles, the question isn’t whether the system will break—it’s how long until detonation. References Reuters: Japan's super-long bond yields soar to records as market frets about demand IndraStra: From Safe Haven to Fault Line: How Japan’s Bond Crisis Threatens Global Markets American Thinker: Bond Market Shock: Is a New Financial Crisis Looming? Wikipedia: National debt of Japan Wolf Street: Japan’s 30-Year and 40-Year Bonds Crater, Yields Spike @onechancefreedm: Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb @DarioCpx: The BOJ losing control of long-term JGB Yields
by RoadToAMillionClub
USDJPYJGB and US Treasury Bond Yield Differential and Upcoming Fundamental Data . Current Bond Yields Overview Bond Type Yield (%) Notes Japan 10-year JGB ~1.24% to 1.55% Yields have risen slightly amid faster inflation in Japan (CPI around 3.5% YoY in April), highest in over a month. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a low policy rate (~0.5%) but is expected to tighten further due to inflation pressures. US 10-year Treasury ~4.5% US yields remain significantly higher, reflecting tighter Federal Reserve policy and stronger economic growth expectations. Yield Differential The interest rate differential between US and Japanese 10-year bonds is roughly 3.0% to 3.3% in favor of the US. This large spread reflects divergent monetary policies: the Fed’s tightening vs. BoJ’s cautious normalization amid inflation concerns. The differential supports USD strength versus JPY and underpins carry trade strategies borrowing JPY to invest in USD assets. Recent Trends in JGB Yields JGB yields, especially long-dated maturities (20-year, 30-year, 40-year), have surged to multi-decade or all-time highs (e.g., 20-year at ~2.55%, 30-year at ~3.14%, 40-year at ~3.6%) due to fiscal concerns and poor auction results. The 10-year JGB yield rose modestly by about 0.5 basis points recently, reaching around 1.24%–1.55%. Inflation pressures in Japan, with CPI rising faster than expected, are prompting expectations for further BoJ policy tightening this year. Upcoming Fundamental Data and Events to Watch Japan: Inflation data updates (CPI and PPI) expected to confirm ongoing upward pressure on prices. Trade data and export/import figures amid US-China trade tensions and tariff negotiations. Bank of Japan policy meetings and statements for clues on monetary tightening pace. G7 finance ministers’ summit discussions, including currency and fiscal policy coordination. United States: US Treasury auctions and debt ceiling developments influencing bond supply and yields. Federal Reserve statements and economic data (inflation, employment) guiding interest rate expectations. Fiscal policy updates, including government spending and debt outlook affecting bond market sentiment. Summary Aspect Japan (JGB) United States (Treasury) 10-Year Yield ~1.24%–1.55%, rising with inflation ~4.5%, elevated due to Fed tightening Yield Differential (US - JP) ~3.0% to 3.3% — Monetary Policy BoJ cautiously tightening, inflation rising Fed aggressively tightening Market Concerns Fiscal deficits, auction demand, inflation Debt ceiling, inflation, Fed policy Key Upcoming Data Inflation, trade, BoJ meetings, G7 summit Inflation, employment, Fed policy, auctions Conclusion The large yield differential between US Treasuries and JGBs reflects diverging monetary policies amid rising inflation in both countries but more aggressive tightening in the US. JGB yields have risen sharply, especially on the long end, due to inflation and fiscal concerns, but remain well below US levels. Upcoming inflation data, central bank meetings, and fiscal developments in both Japan and the US will be critical in shaping bond yield trajectories and the USD/JPY exchange rate in the near term.
by Shavyfxhub
2
USD/JPY - H1 - Channel Breakout (17.05.2025) The Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 142.40 2nd Support – 140.17 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
62
JPY/USD Weekly Chart – Bullish Triangle Breakout Pattern Forming🔍 Chart Pattern Breakdown: The chart is showing a symmetrical triangle pattern forming on the weekly timeframe of JPY/USD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar). This triangle is developing after a massive multi-year downtrend, which started all the way back in 2021. Such a triangle at the bottom of a trend often signals a potential reversal or a strong trend shift. Here's what's happening technically: 🔺 Triangle Formation (Consolidation Phase): Lower highs and higher lows indicate a clear symmetrical triangle. The price has been bouncing between these converging trendlines for months. This compression is like a spring — it’s storing energy and getting ready to break out. The triangle pattern is nearing its apex, which means a breakout is likely soon. 📉 Previous Trend Context: Before the triangle, the market had a strong bearish move — a downtrend that brought the pair into a major weekly support zone. This support zone (marked in light blue) around 0.0062–0.0063 has been tested and respected multiple times. 📊 Key Technical Zones: Support Zone: 0.0062 – 0.0063 — this is where price bounced and formed the base of the triangle. Resistance Zone / Triangle Top: Around 0.0071 – this is the upper boundary of the triangle. A breakout above this will confirm the bullish scenario. Target Area: 0.00829 – derived from measuring the height of the triangle and projecting it from the breakout point. Major BOS (Break of Structure): Once price breaks above the triangle and the BOS line, it confirms a shift from bearish to bullish structure. SL Zone: Stop loss area is just below the support zone at 0.00629 to protect against false breakouts. 🔁 Retest Setup: After the breakout, it's common to see a pullback to retest the previous resistance (now turned support). That retest often provides a high-probability entry for swing and position traders. If it happens — that’s your golden moment! 🎯 Trade Plan (Example for Education): Entry Criteria Value/Zone Breakout Entry Above 0.0071 (confirmed candle close) Retest Entry 0.0069 – 0.0070 (support flip) Stop-Loss (SL) Below 0.00629 Target (TP) 0.00829 ✅ Why This Setup Matters: Clear structure on the weekly chart. Multi-touch points on both trendlines = strong pattern. Support zone backing the triangle base gives extra conviction. A breakout from such consolidation patterns often results in sharp movements. Risk/reward ratio is highly favorable. ⚠️ Risk Management Reminder: Always trade with a plan, use a stop-loss, and don’t jump into the breakout blindly. Volume confirmation or retest confirmation will help increase the success rate. These kinds of setups are powerful, but only when approached with discipline. 🧠 Final Thoughts: This JPY/USD triangle on the weekly chart is a textbook example of potential bullish reversal from a major downtrend. It’s showing signs of a structural shift, supported by strong support, tightening price action, and the chance for a breakout to deliver a major upside move toward 0.00829. If you’re a swing or position trader, keep this on your radar. Momentum is building — don’t miss the move when the breakout hits. 📈🔥
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY Channel Down rejection aiming for the 2024 Support.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 10 2025 High and right now is on its latest Bearish Leg, an outcome of the rejection near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This has also been confirmed by the 1D MACD Bearish Cross and the next technical Support is on 139.600. By the time it gets tested, the price may also make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Our short-term Target is 139.600. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USD/JPY Bears Hit Back in a Big WayIt was a painful week for both USD and USD/JPY bulls as both markets retreated massively following four-week spurts of strength. In both, a Monday breakout in the prior week was soundly rebuffed, but it still seems as though USD/JPY is driving USD markets and the prospect of greater carry unwind can keep that as a force to be reckoned with. There could be repercussions if we see greater carry unwind, like what showed up in Q3 of last year when USD/JPY fell by as much as 13% while global equity markets sold-off aggressively. Of note from the weekly chart is the comparison between up and down weeks: When both USD and USD/JPY topped in January, the down weeks showed large moves and the up weeks far more tepid. This week has been another aggressive sell-off, which opens the door for that theme to continue. And on that front, the 140.00 level still presents as a massive spot of importance - and not just for USD/JPY but also USD and equity markets, as a break of that level indicates larger unwind of the carry trade which could serve as a de-leveraging event, globally. Notably, the long-term trendline of prior support has remained as resistance. With that said - be careful of chasing breakouts in USD/JPY, as there have been several traps on both sides of the pair this year, including that last trip down to 140.00 which reversed dramatically in the four weeks that followed, by more than 800 pips, trough to peak. - js
by FOREXcom
USDJPY Technical Analysis.This chart shows a 2-hour timeframe for the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen) currency pair on FXCM. It represents a bearish trade setup with key elements marked: Entry Zone: Near 144.075 (current price level). Stop Loss: Placed at approximately 144.796 (red zone above the entry). Target (Take Profit): Set around 143.506 (green zone below the entry), marked with the target symbol. Expected Price Action: The red arrow indicates a potential upward move (false breakout or retracement), followed by the green zigzag indicating a downtrend continuation toward the target. Interpretation: The setup anticipates a short position—selling USD/JPY near current levels in expectation of a price decline. Risk-to-reward appears favorable, with a tighter stop loss compared to the potential downside. Would you like a combined strategy summary comparing both BTC/USD and USD/JPY setups?
Short
by XAUUSD_EXPERT_Team
USDJPY Will Move Lower! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 142.577. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 141.626 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Yen Strengthens on Dollar WeaknessThe Japanese yen firmed to around 143.6 per dollar, heading for a weekly gain of over 1% as inflation data came in stronger than expected. Core inflation surged to 3.5%, its highest in more than two years, while headline inflation held at 3.6%, reinforcing expectations that the BoJ may maintain its tightening stance. The yen also benefited from continued dollar weakness tied to U.S. fiscal worries. Earlier, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato denied discussing exchange rates with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent at the G7 summit, dismissing rumors of joint currency intervention. USD/JPY faces resistance at 148.60, with further upside levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Key support lies at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
USDJPY Will Explode! BUY! My dear subscribers, USDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 143.33 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 143.66 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
4