What is a Liquidity Void?This study goes over what Liquidity Voids look like and a live example of how to trade off of them - Charting back from early May 2010
JPYUSD trade ideas
Indentifying Bullish/Bearish Orderblocks & Mitigation Blocks Orderblocks and Mitigation Block Live Study - Looking at live example going back to early May of 2010. There was news on May 6th that caused the market to plunge but interestingly enough - Price Action manages to be find a floor around the Orderblocks indentified on the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Charts (HTF)
USDJPYBOJ will increase interest rate to boost yen appeal in global financial window, this could come this year and it will alter trade direction to favor Javanese yen
BearishLooks like this could continue lower on the rejection of the 0.786 fib line and the trend line.
USD/JPY Daily Chart AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair is currently moving within an upward channel, demonstrating a steady uptrend since the recent lows around 139.56. The pair has been respecting key Fibonacci retracement levels, which could act as areas of support and resistance.
Key Levels to Watch:
0.236 Fibonacci Retracement (156.67): This level has served as a resistance zone, and a breakout above could pave the way for a test of the recent highs around 157.84.
Support Zones: Immediate support is seen at the 0.382 retracement (153.40), with additional support at the 0.618 level (148.12). A break below the channel could see a retest of these supports.
Indicators & Trends:
Moving Averages: The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are acting as dynamic support levels, supporting the current bullish trend.
Volume: There was a recent increase in volume as the pair rallied, suggesting strong buying interest. However, watch for any drop in volume, as it could signal weakening momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is approaching overbought territory, so caution is advised as the pair nears resistance zones.
Outlook:
The pair may experience consolidation between the 153.40 support and 156.67 resistance levels in the short term. A breakout above 156.67 could lead to a potential test of 157.84 and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below the support trendline may shift momentum towards the downside, targeting lower Fibonacci levels and potentially the key support near 143.88.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Bias: Wait for a confirmed breakout above 156.67, aiming for the 157.84 level.
Bearish Bias : A confirmed break below the channel could signal a trend reversal, with initial targets near 150.75 and 148.12.
Always consider using appropriate risk management.
USDJPY: Buy opportunity inside the 1H MA200 and 4H MA100.USDJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.138, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 50.518) which perfectly explains the Channel Up it's been trading in since October 8th. At the moment the price is on an aggressive bearish wave, which got accelerated today as it was rejected on the 1H MA50. The result is so far a direct hit on the 1H MA200 for the first time since Nov 10th. The last two HL were on the 4H MA100 however, so there is still some more room to fall but even on the current level the reward largely outweighs the risk. We are just over the 0.5 Fibonacci level afterall, which is where the November 5th low was formed. We're long, aiming for a +3.20% rise (TP = 158.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USD/JPY: Bearish Setup Triggered – Major Reversal Underway?The USD/JPY currency pair reached a pivotal high in July 2024 at 161.951, followed by a significant drop to 139.581. We interpret this as wave 1, unfolding through an A, B, and C corrective countertrend. As of 15 November 2024, we estimate that wave C peaked around the 156.7 level.
From here, we project a substantial bearish reversal, with the pair potentially breaking below the 130 level. The invalidation level for this bearish scenario is set at 161.951. Should this resistance hold, traders could anticipate sustained downside momentum. This bearish forecast is supported by technical indicators aligning with broader macroeconomic factors.
Key resistance lies at the 156.7 level, with traders advised to monitor this zone closely. Strategic positioning could offer opportunities for profit while mitigating risks, as this move signals a significant market shift.
USDJPY short idea 1H high risk! Looking to sell USDJPY, possible 1:5 RR
Entry , Stop ,take profit on the chart
Consolidation Midweek Rally #7 Daily fractal tuesday tradeAfter Friday touched the daily Orderblock formed during election week, I saw the perfect opportunity for a daily fractal trade. I waited for the London session's move, and since price dropped below the Asian range after 12:00 AM New York time, I waited for a 15-minute Orderblock to form and retraced into it.
The entry happened around 2:00 AM, but even if I had waited until 2:30 AM, the result would have been the same. I took partial profits and closed the entire trade on Thursday after price hit a Premium Discount (PD) array.
Although the playbook suggests Friday often sets the high of the week, I chose not to be greedy and exited early.
doing screenshots and publish really helps me a lot :D
USDJPY ANALYSISThe price is still in the uptrend and is reacting in a strong zone, signaling a shorter bullish call.
USDJPYWe can attempt to buy USDJPY from specified level as it make HL , also 0.618 FIB level occur indicate that it moves upward.
SL , TP mention in chart.
USDJPYA nice breakout of diagonal supporting trendline on UJ..
From this point ill be looking for the market to drop from 155.5 all the way down to our 90%..
USDJPY breaks bottom trend ready to hit a new high.
After a decent retrace breaking the bottom of the bearish channel USDJPY seems to aim at creating a new major high.
UJ longsUJ is in a strong bullish trend right now, with a larger pullback at the moment which indicates that we can now wait for the accumulation in the HTF demand zone.
I will be waiting for price to slow down within this area, switch into a consolidation were liquidity will be build.
I will be monitoring price in this range on the 5 min TF, enter on the 2 min TF using my SMA crossover marker indicator and try to ride this thing all the way up to the HH target.
Usdjpy buy 155.29Usdjpy declined to test bottom Bolinger on 15min time frame.
At the same time on 5 min price created gapping separation cluster of candels left behind.
Buy on this gapping separation 155.29
With to profit higher.
Japan GDP beats forecast, yen ends skidThe Japanese yen is in positive territory today, putting the brakes on a four-day skid. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.54 down 0.45% on the day.
Japan’s economy expanded by 0.9% in the third quarter, below the revised 2.2% gain in Q2 but above the market estimate of 0.7%. Quarterly, GDP rose 0.2%, lower than the 0.5% gain in Q2 and matching expectations.
The GDP numbers were not sparkling but point to a second straight quarter of growth. August economic activity was dampened due to a “megaquake” alert and a fierce typhoon which caused widespread destruction and disruption.
Private consumption, which comprises more than half of the country’s GDP showed strong growth of 3.6% y/y, despite the weather issues. This is an encouraging sign for the Bank of Japan, which wants to see inflation rise to demand and consumption. The BoJ has been vague about the timing of a rate hike but the markets are looking at December or January as likely dates. The yen has been wobbly and is down 2.3% in November. If the yen’s downswing continues, the BoJ could decide to hike rates at the Dec. 19 meeting. There is also the possibility of the Ministry of Finance intervening in the currency markets if the yen declines sharply.
The US wraps up the week with retail sales for October, with a market estimate of 1.9%. Retails sales eased to 1.7% y/y in September, which was an 8-month low. Monthly, retail sales are expected to inch up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Consumer spending has been generally strong and consumer confidence should improve now that the uncertainty over the US election is over.
USD/JPY has pushed below support at 1.5601 and is testing 1.5560. The next support line is 1.5493
1.5668 and 1.5709 are the next resistance lines
USDJPY at key level for next rally!Hey guys,
Based on my analysis, USDJPY reached a key level that might to have a good point for next rally.
As it is visible on the chart there is a conjunction of two important trend line that they cross each other on a support area.
So however it can be a little bit risky because currently there no clue for reversal to uptrend in 15min chart, but the good risk reward leads me to open a position at this key level.
Good luck!
USD/JPY Potential Trajectory Around Intervention Levels..Whispers of Intervention (again) by the Japanese Govt have come across the board as the USD drives higher.
Japanese officials are aware of demand into USD post Trump Election and will be monitoring the weakening of the JPY carefully.
We've seen several Japanese interventions in recent history, and anything more would likely deliver a larger fall back to lows to keep price sustainable.
It is is more the rate at which the weakening happens, not so much the eventual price. So any data that spurs a further drive into the USD could cause this to happen.
Any entries, must be light. I would not take anything seriously long here at all given the position the JPY is in, not least how weak it is already. With intervention chatter on the cards its a recipe for long disaster, even despite rate differentials. S/L may be helpful.
Keeping a close eye on news sentiment as we go forward.
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fed’sUSDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fed’s Dovish Outlook and Yen’s Safe-Haven Appeal 15/11/2024
Introduction
Today’s outlook for USDJPY leans towards a slight bearish bias, driven by multiple factors that currently favor the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, increased safe-haven demand for the yen, and recent technical indicators pointing to downside potential, USDJPY appears set for a potential downward trend. This analysis provides key insights into the main drivers shaping the pair’s movement today, offering valuable information for forex traders.
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Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today
1. Dovish Federal Reserve Reducing USD Appeal
Recent U.S. economic data, including lower-than-expected inflation and moderate job growth, has led to a more cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve. With expectations for rate hikes now muted, the USD faces downward pressure. The dovish stance has weakened the dollar’s appeal, supporting a bearish bias for USDJPY as investors seek alternatives like the yen.
2. Increased Safe-Haven Demand for Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen traditionally serves as a safe-haven currency, attracting investors during times of global uncertainty. With ongoing geopolitical concerns and fluctuating economic conditions in various regions, demand for safe-haven assets like the yen has increased. This factor adds to the downward pressure on USDJPY, as traders shift to more stable options amid market volatility.
3. Stable Policy from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Supporting Yen
While the Bank of Japan has maintained its accommodative policy stance, recent signals suggest that any policy adjustments could be dependent on sustained inflation improvements. This stability in BoJ’s approach has reinforced confidence in the yen, contributing to its strength against a softer dollar. The BoJ’s consistent position gives the JPY added support, favoring a bearish bias for USDJPY.
4. Technical Indicators Showing Bearish Momentum
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is currently trading below key resistance levels and the 50-day moving average, both of which point to a bearish trend. Indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) show bearish signals, suggesting potential for further downside in the pair.
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Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook
Moving Averages and RSI
USDJPY remains below its 50-day moving average, indicating continued downward pressure. The RSI is trending lower without reaching oversold territory, which implies room for additional declines without a correction.
MACD and Volume Trends
The MACD has shown a bearish crossover, supporting expectations for a bearish trend. Volume analysis also reflects a steady increase in selling interest, further aligning with today’s bearish bias for USDJPY.
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Conclusion
With the Fed’s dovish outlook, rising safe-haven demand for the yen, and supportive technical indicators, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should stay vigilant to any changes in risk sentiment or key economic data releases, as these factors could impact the pair’s movement.
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USDJPY LONG IDEAExecute the price at the exact price mentioned, NO FOMO.
💡KEEP IN MIND💡
I am not a financial advisor and do not contribute to any of your losses or profits. To be safe, I recommend that you risk only 0.1 - 0.2% for the first week or 10 days, as no one can predict the market.
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USD/JPY Under Pressure: A Guide to Shorting OpportunitiesMarket Sentiment and Positioning: Monitoring the sentiment in the forex market can provide insights into the overall positioning of traders. If sentiment shifts towards bearishness for the dollar based on the above factors, it could create a self-fulfilling prophecy as more traders take short positions.
Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical events can significantly influence currency markets. For instance, any escalation in trade tensions, conflicts, or uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy could lead to a flight to safety, where investors prefer holding the yen over the dollar, thus providing a rationale for shorting USD/JPY.
Economic Slowdown in the U.S.: Recent economic indicators from the U.S. may suggest a slowdown, such as declining GDP growth, rising unemployment, or decreasing consumer confidence. If these trends continue, they can lead to a bearish outlook for the USD, prompting traders to short USD/JPY.
USD/JPY Analysis on the 1-Hour ChartIn this analysis of USD/JPY, we are currently observing an uptrend, with buyers maintaining control of the market. A key support zone, marked in green, has been identified as an area where buyers have previously stepped in to push the price higher.
While the price is not currently in this zone, our strategy anticipates a potential pullback to this support level. If the price returns to this green zone, it could attract buyers again, leading to a potential upward movement in line with the prevailing trend.
Trading Plan:
Long Positions: If the price retraces to the green support zone, look for confirmation of buyer interest, such as bullish candlestick patterns, an increase in buying momentum, or positive divergence. These signals could provide an opportunity to enter long positions.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly below the green support zone to manage risk in case the support fails to hold.
Profit Target: The first target would be the previous resistance level or the next significant resistance zone, where sellers may return.
This approach allows us to trade with the trend while maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy. Monitoring the price action closely around the green support zone is crucial for executing this idea effectively.
