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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USDJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISUSDJPY is trading around the 143.00 level, and we’re now closely eyeing a potential breakdown. After a prolonged uptrend driven by policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ, the pair appears to be losing bullish momentum. Structurally, the pair has formed a lower high, and sellers are starting to step in near resistance. A clean break below the 142.00–141.50 zone could open the path toward my downside target at 135.00. On the fundamental side, recent data suggests a shift in sentiment. The US dollar is under pressure as markets increasingly price in a Fed pause or even rate cuts by the end of the year, following soft retail sales and labor market figures. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is gaining ground amid rising speculation that the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra-loose policy sooner than expected. The BoJ’s recent bond purchase tapering and Governor Ueda's hints at tightening are starting to shift market flows back toward the yen. Technically, USDJPY is at a critical juncture. The pair is testing a key trendline support that has held for months, but price action is showing signs of exhaustion. Volume is thinning on the rallies, and bearish divergence is visible on multiple indicators, including RSI and MACD. If the pair breaks below the current structure, we could see accelerated downside action toward the 135.00 target, which aligns with previous consolidation zones and fib retracement levels. This setup offers a strong short opportunity with clear invalidation and solid risk-to-reward potential. The macro narrative is shifting in favor of the yen, and technicals are lining up with this view. I’ll be watching the coming sessions for confirmation of breakdown and potential entries. This could be the start of a broader correction after a strong bullish cycle.
Short
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
3
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 22, 2025 USDJPYEvents to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims 16:45 EET. USD - Services PMI USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) demonstrated resilience by rebounding from an early decline during the Asian trading session. This recovery was largely influenced by positive machinery orders data from Japan, which effectively quashed recession fears and significantly bolstered expectations of an economic recovery. This occurred in anticipation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) potentially raising interest rates again in 2025, which would have been a positive development for the JPY. Furthermore, flight to safety is identified as a contributing factor to the strengthening of the yen. The proposed tax bill introduced by US President Donald Trump has led to concerns regarding the financial stability of the US government. This, in addition to the resurgence of tensions between the US and China, is exerting downward pressure on global risk sentiment and prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional safe haven assets, including the yen. This, coupled with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, has led to the USD/JPY pair reaching a two-week low, approaching the round figure of 143.00 on Thursday. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.100, SL 143.700, TP 142.350
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
UJ Could Tumble Back To 140 If Bears Take Expanding RangeToday FX:USDJPY Sellers make a Breakout of the Rising Support of the Expanding Range it's been trading in since the Low that started the range back on April 22nd. An Expanding Range is typically considered a Continuation Pattern suggesting that if Sellers can hold price under the Rising Support, we can suspect JPY to overcome USD in this pair pulling price down continuing the Downtrend it was in prior to entering the pattern. Once the Breakout of Consolidation is Validated, a Breakout & Retest of the Rising Support could deliver potential Short Opportunities to take price down to the Low of the Range. Fundamentally, there is a lot of worry about the fall out of Tariff Talks with important trade partners with the 90-Day grace period soon coming to an end, weakening labor market potentially signaling "Stagflation" and additionally, it is suspected that Trump's Tax Cut Bill could add $3 - $5 Trillion to the $36.2 Trillion debt the US is already suffering from, further harming the Dollar. -https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3RT018:0-dollar-on-defensive-as-traders-eye-trump-tax-bill-g7-currency-talks/ -https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:459470:0-dollar-extends-losses/
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
13
USDJPY Long Setup: Triple Confluence Zone Locked InSmart money traders love one thing more than anything — confluence. This BTCUSD setup hits all the marks: 📈 Structure Breakdown: Market breaks structure to the upside ✅ Impulsive bullish leg breaks prior high ✅ Pullback into 61.8% golden zone + OB ✅ Rejection wick = perfect entry confirmation ✅ This is a high-probability continuation setup after BTC made a clear bullish BOS (Break of Structure) on the M30 timeframe. 🟦 Order Block Zone: OB Range: Top: ~106,989 Bottom: ~106,759 This OB was the last down candle before the big bullish impulse that broke structure. Price returned to mitigate here, then instantly rejected = Smart Money entry confirmed 🔒 🧮 Fibonacci Levels: 61.8%: Sliced right into it 70.5% – 79%: Deeper liquidity zone just below The entry wick taps right into the sweet OB/Fib confluence zone and launches 🚀. It’s giving sniper precision with a low drawdown entry. 🎯 Trade Parameters: Entry: ~106,759 SL: Below the OB zone TP: 108,022 (previous high) That’s an RRR of around 3.5–4.0x — a clean asymmetric play, just the way smart money wants it. 🔍 Confirmation Factors: Bullish BOS on M30 Price returns to OB zone + golden ratio Clean rejection candle with demand absorption No internal structure break = bullish narrative still valid 🧠 Key Lesson: “When OB meets Fibonacci, don’t ask why. Load up — the market just told you why.” Let setups like this come to you. No chasing, no emotions. Let the algo-driven footprints guide you to the money. 📈 Missed this one? Save it for your playbook — this is how high-probability trades are built. Drop a 💰 if you caught the same move!
Long
by ChartNinjas88
USDJPY - Potential Sell (Swing to long term Trade)Hi traders, This is a repost from my last analysis. We are still focusing to SELL CMCMARKETS:USDJPY Price Action Analysis: Weekly or higher Chart: Price seems to be slowing down and showing signs of turning to the downside. Buyers have tried several times to push up from the 140.0 level, but each time, sellers responded with more selling. It feels like sellers are still holding a lot of CMCMARKETS:USDJPY and are trying to offload it. Daily Chart: Price has been making new highs, which is actually a good sign for a potential sell-off. We’re watching to see if the daily chart shows signs of giving up. However, price is still in buyer territory, so we’re on standby for now. Lower time frame Chart: Timing for Entry Good Luck. "The most important investment you can make is in yourself." Warren Buffet
Short
by tarati.lorenzo
JPY/USD potential shift from downtrend to uptrend1. DB (Double Bottom): A reversal pattern identified near the lower region of the chart, indicating strong buying interest and potential shift from downtrend to uptrend. 2. BOS (Break of Structure): A breakout point where the previous market structure was violated, confirming bullish intent. 3. Support & Resistance Zones: Support: A major horizontal support level is drawn at the bottom, indicating a strong demand area. Resistance: A horizontal resistance level is marked just below the recent high, aligning with the target zone. 4. Opening Gap: A price gap has been identified and highlighted, often considered a magnet for price to return and fill before continuation. 5. ENTRY Zone: A buy entry is suggested just above the gap region, where price action shows a bullish rejection. 6. TARGET Zone: The projected take-profit area is marked above resistance, suggesting the expectation of a breakout and continuation of the upward move. --- Trade Setup Summary: Bias: Bullish Entry: Around the current level (~0.00690), shortly after the gap fill. Stop Loss: Below the recent swing low/gap region (highlighted in red). Take Profit: Near or above 0.00706, aligning with previous resistance and potential breakout target. --- Technical Outlook: This setup reflects a momentum-based continuation trade, supported by structural confirmation (double bottom and BOS), a classic gap-fill retracement, and a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. The trader is looking to capitalize on a breakout from the resistance zone into higher price territory.
Long
by Johnson67
USDJPY- IS it a beginning of major bulish trend nowthe USD/JPY pair is currently in a major bullish trend, driven by several key factors: 1. Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates compared to the Bank of Japan, attracting capital flows into the U.S. dollar and away from the yen. 2. Dovish Bank of Japan: Despite global tightening, the BOJ remains cautious about raising rates or ending yield curve control, weakening the yen further. 3. Robust U.S. Economic Data: Strong economic indicators from the U.S. (such as inflation, jobs, and GDP growth) continue to support expectations of prolonged higher rates, boosting the dollar.
Long
by SadarExplore
1
Falling towards pullback support?USDJPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 142.400 1st Support: 140.92 1st Resistance: 144.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDJPY set go down much further. 1. Summary of Key Factors -Factor Signal Impact on USD/JPY Notes -US 20Y Bond Selloff Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Suggests capital outflows from US -Moody's Downgrade Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Weakens USD confidence globally -Japanese Portfolio Rebalancing Bullish JPY🔻 Drop Likely Reduced UST purchases = yen demand -Technical Break of SMA & Support Bearish 🔻 Drop Likely Clean 50-day MA break = momentum shift -Risk Sentiment (Safe-Haven Flows) Favors JPY 🔻 Drop Likely JPY tends to strengthen in uncertainty -Upcoming Asian Session (Tokyo Open) Neutral–Bearish 🔻 May Continue Yen typically sees increased strength Looking at all these factors we should expect a further drop.
Short
by Mexiguero
USDJPY BULLISH IDEA🧱 Key Observations Order Block (OB) Marked (Demand Zone): A clearly marked bullish order block (OB) zone is highlighted in pink around the 139.883 low. This zone likely represents institutional buying interest. It was the origin of a strong bullish move that broke prior structure. Price Action: After a series of higher highs and higher lows, price has retraced significantly. It's approaching the order block area again, potentially for a retest or liquidity grab. Heikin Ashi Candles: Recent candles are bearish, showing momentum to the downside. However, these candles typically lag in reversals, so price may soon shift if it hits the OB zone. Projected Move: A large blue upward arrow is drawn, suggesting an anticipated bullish reversal from the OB zone with a potential move back to 148.647 (recent high). 📊 Technical Implication Bullish Bias if price holds within or just above the OB zone. Watch for bullish reversal signals (engulfing patterns, divergence, or break of minor structure). If price breaks below 139.883 decisively, the bullish setup may be invalidated. 📌 Strategy Idea (Not Financial Advice): Entry Zone: 140.000–139.900 (inside OB) Stop Loss: Below 139.800 Target: ~148.500 Risk/Reward: Favorable if OB holds
Long
by theprofitpioneerzw
1
USDJPY Bearish in the short term.The USD/JPY exchange rate extended its recent downward trend during the European session, falling for the third consecutive trading day and marking the sixth decline in the past seven trading days. It hit a two-week low in the 143.45 area during the European morning session. Multiple factors have jointly driven the exchange rate lower, indicating that the sharp pullback from the monthly high of 148.65 reached last Monday may continue to extend. The Japanese yen is supported by market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates again and has gained additional momentum from the rebound in risk-aversion demand. In the short term, USD/JPY maintains a downward trend, with technical indicators showing that bears are in control. 142.210 will be a key support level; a break below this level could accelerate the decline toward the 139.887 area. In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Short
by Ashbur
USD/JPY – Dow Theory Trend Test | Tight SL StrategyPair: USD/JPY Trend: Bearish (Confirmed Lower Highs & Lower Lows) Trade Type: Sell Stop Entry Price (EP): 143.365 Stop Loss (SL): 144.253 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 142.477 (1:1) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 141.589 (1:2) Lot Size: 0.16 Risk/Reward: Trade 1: Risk $100 / Reward $100 (1:1) Trade 2: Risk $100 / Reward $200 (1:2) Total Risk: $200 Total Reward: $300 🔍 Trade Idea Based on Dow Theory: According to Dow Theory, USD/JPY is in a confirmed downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. This setup captures a bearish continuation move if price breaks below the recent structure low. The Sell Stop entry ensures we only enter the market if bearish momentum resumes. We are using a clear structure-based stop loss and logical take profit levels aligned with market flow. ✅ Strategy Logic: Bearish Momentum: Trend is down — no guessing tops or bottoms Breakout Entry: Sell Stop entry avoids false moves in choppy markets Structure-Based SL/TP: Keeping trade clean and technical Split Trade: One conservative TP, one extended for trend ride 📌 Note: This trade is designed to capture a breakout in alignment with the current downtrend. Using smart risk control and proper trade sizing makes this setup scalable. #USDJPY #BearishTrend #DowTheory #PriceAction #ForexSetup #SmartTrading #BreakoutTrade #SellStop #RiskReward #ForexSignals #TechnicalTrading #ChartPatterns
Short
by asimafridi
USDJPYDXY (US Dollar Index) and Bond Yield Relationship – May 2025 Current Market Situation US Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.54% (May 21, 2025), and the 30-year yield is testing the 5% level amid a global bond sell-off. DXY (US Dollar Index): The DXY and the 10-year yield are moving in sync again after a period of divergence earlier in 2025. Relationship Dynamics Positive Correlation: Historically, the DXY and US bond yields (especially the 10-year yield) tend to move together. When yields rise, the dollar often strengthens, as higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns. In recent weeks, this positive correlation has resumed after a brief disconnect in April, when yields surged but the dollar weakened due to shifting investor sentiment and US tariff policy. Periods of Divergence: In early April 2025, there was a notable divergence: yields climbed while the dollar fell, reflecting a rare episode where investors were wary of US assets despite higher returns, possibly due to concerns about US fiscal health and global trade tensions. During that period, both US bonds and the dollar declined together, signaling a potential shift away from US assets and raising questions about the dollar’s structural appeal as a reserve currency. Recent Realignment: After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting and a major tariff agreement with China, the DXY and yields began rising together again, indicating renewed confidence in US assets and a return to more typical market behavior. Key Factors Influencing the Relationship Fed Policy: Expectations for future rate cuts or hikes directly influence both yields and the dollar. Higher expected rates generally support both. Global Risk Sentiment: In risk-off scenarios, the dollar can strengthen even if yields fall, due to safe-haven demand. Trade and Fiscal Policy: Tariffs and concerns about US debt sustainability can disrupt the usual correlation, as seen in early 2025. Summary Table Factor Impact on DXY Impact on Yields Typical Correlation Rising US Yields Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive US Fiscal Concerns Can weaken DXY Yields may rise Can diverge Global Risk Aversion Strengthens DXY Yields may fall Can diverge Trade Tensions/Tariffs Mixed Mixed May disrupt correlation Conclusion As of May 2025, the DXY and US bond yields have resumed a positive correlation, both rising in response to Fed policy signals and improved risk sentiment following a major tariff agreement. However, earlier in the year, this relationship broke down due to concerns about US fiscal stability and shifting global investment flows. The interplay between DXY and yields remains sensitive to Fed policy, fiscal outlook, and geopolitical developments.
Long
by Shavyfxhub