US Dollar fall is far from over .......Don't let the recent US-UK deal tricks you into thinking Trump is winning in his negotiating. He chose a weak opponent to begin with . I won't pop the champagne yet !
The one must watch show is the one in Switzerland where his representatives meet up with the Chinese counterparts. Knowing his style, he will trumpet and exaggerate a thousand times even nothing is cast in stone. This guy loves the media and must say , he is manipulating them very well. People saw his plot yet few dares to call him out.
As usual, please DYODD
JPYUSD trade ideas
USD/JPY: Ready for a Rally or a False Recovery?USD/JPY is at a crucial stage, with the price hovering around 143.900. After a bearish move, the market is attempting to recover, aiming for the resistance zone between 149.000 and 151.000.
COT Insight:
COT data shows a slight increase in long positions among speculative traders (+397), while commercials are increasing their short coverage (+539), indicating caution.
Seasonality:
Historically, May has been a slightly bullish month for USD/JPY (+0.42% over the last 10 years), but the trend has been negative in the last 5 years (-0.57%), indicating uncertainty.
Retail Sentiment:
65% of retail traders are long, which could indicate potential bearish pressure in case of opposite moves, given the risk of position liquidation.
Conclusion:
Carefully monitor the price reaction around 144.000. A breakout towards 149.000 could signal a significant move, but the long retail pressure might represent an obstacle.
USDJPY BEARISH SETUP ONFIRMED.?USD/JPY Bearish Scenario Analysis
Trend: Downtrend (bearish bias confirmed by lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe)
Current Price Action: After a failed attempt to sustain above the 148.200 resistance level, USD/JPY has shown rejection patterns such as bearish engulfing candles and increasing selling volume. Price is now breaking below key moving averages (e.g., 50 and 100 EMA), confirming momentum shift to the downside
Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 148.200 – Strong supply zone, multiple rejections seen here.
1st Bearish Target: 143.900 – Recent swing low and minor support zone; break below confirms bearish continuation.
2nd Bearish Target: 141.600 – Major horizontal support from previous consolidation area.
Support: 140.100 – Long-term support level; likely to attract strong buying interest or signal a trend exhaustion.
Bearish Scenario Setup
1. Entry Zone: Between 147.500 - 147.800 (pullback/retest of broken structure)
2. Stop Loss: Above 148.500 (just beyond the resistance zone to avoid false breakouts)
3. Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 143.900
TP2: 141.600
4. Bonus Target (extended move): 140.100 – if selling momentum continues and macro conditions favor JPY strength.
USD_JPY WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅USD_JPY will be retesting a
Resistance level soon around 147.500
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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USDJPY Long Trade - 150.000!!!! NEXT TARGETI normally don't post on here but have seen for the past month that 95% of any trades are accurate. Based on liquidity, common sense and price targets, in my believe this shall be the next big move. Entry shall be between 148.250-148.500. Target will hopefully hit by this upcoming Thursday. NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
Risk aversion cools down and continues to reboundFrom the daily chart, USD/JPY has broken through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (145.55) of the March-April decline, and has been consolidating above it, showing that bulls are in control of the rhythm. The daily MACD has turned red again, and the RSI indicator has steadily recovered. In the short term, it is expected to further attack the 61.8% retracement level of 146.80-146.85. If it breaks through the 147.00 integer mark, it will open the upward channel and target around 148.30.
USDJPY Weekly CLS I Continuation setup I Target Weekly CLS HighHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
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If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature.
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— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY Long setupdaily closed above previous day body indicating a reversal. weekly low was not broken and supports have been respected. aiming for previous week high. weekly resistance is still higher 146.480 ultimate zone of tp. there are resistance zones as marked on chart will look for scalps in these areas. happy trading everyone this is not financial advice.
I AM
33
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 141.80
1st Support: 140.13
1st Resistance: 145.44
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
USDJPY Just Flipped — Liquidity Has a New Target🧠 Smart Money Breakdown: USDJPY | 15-Min Chart
We’ve got a textbook bearish reversal setup forming right now on USDJPY, and Smart Money traders are paying close attention.
🔄 1. Change of Character (ChoCh)
The first key sign was a ChoCh, which flipped the internal structure from bullish to bearish. This signals a potential shift in market control from buyers to sellers — Smart Money often initiates big moves after such a flip.
🟫 2. Bearish Order Block + Rejection Wick
Price pulled back right into a fresh bearish Order Block (OB) around the 148.056–148.337 zone. This OB lines up perfectly with the upper trendline + internal liquidity area.
Price is now rejecting hard from this level, signaling Smart Money sell-side pressure.
🕳 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Below
Below current price lies a clean FVG, serving as a magnet for price. Smart Money often targets these imbalances to rebalance the market.
The gap extends from around 146.200 to 147.400 — with Sell Side Liquidity resting right below at 145.872. That’s the likely kill zone. 💀
📐 4. Trade Setup (R:R Approx. 3.5:1)
🔼 Entry Zone: 147.980–148.050 (inside OB)
❌ Stop Loss: Just above OB: 148.400
✅ Target: 145.872 (Sell Side Liquidity sweep)
Perfect for swing traders and intraday SMC setups.
📊 Strategy:
Look for:
Bearish engulfing candle confirmation
Break of minor internal low (lower TF BOS)
Entry on OB rejection with tight SL above high
Bonus: Enter partials on FVG fill, hold runner to liquidity.
📎 Confluences:
✅ ChoCh confirmed
✅ Bearish OB
✅ Price rejecting from premium zone
✅ FVG below = imbalance magnet
✅ Sell-side liquidity clearly marked
⚠️ Risk Reminder:
Let price show intent before jumping in
Use confirmation, not assumption
Trade what the chart says, not what you hope
🔚 Summary:
Smart Money has flipped the script. With a strong ChoCh, OB rejection, and an FVG inviting price lower, this setup screams bearish continuation.
🔻 Expecting a clean run into liquidity. Stay sharp. 🧠
💬 Drop a “💀” if you’re eyeing the same setup.
📈 Follow for more clean SMC plays weekly.
USDJPY M,W,D BIAS
Monthly
Bias Bullish target 151.304 (monthly fvg)
Weekly
Price Currently trading on an imbalanced zone which im watching for a possible reversal zone. But if price closed through im looking at this weekly and daily impalance zone of 148.27 as possible draw on liquidity
Daily
Bias Bearish daily target 144.753 which happens to be a daily bullish fvg. I might consider this level to look for buys since order flow for me is is bullish if price does fall back for a correction
4Hour confirmation zone
Please let me know your thoughts
"trading is a probability game, its always best to have a plan"
A Short USDJPY Buy🌞 Good Morning, Traders! 🌞
It’s a beautiful, great morning — let’s get ready to learn and earn! 💪📊
Here’s something I want you to understand today:
📈 Price always moves from one zone to another.
When it reaches a zone, it often pauses (rests) before continuing its movement — depending on whether buyers or sellers are in control at that moment.
🧠 Here’s a key insight:
Most times, buyers are positioned around the middle of the 4H candle.
That’s exactly why we're taking this BUY trade — the price is resting and showing signs of buyer strength from that level.
So keep your eyes sharp and your mind focused. 👀
Understanding why we take trades is what separates smart traders from lucky ones.
Let’s stay patient, stay consistent, and grow together. 🚀
USD/JPY Faces FVG ResistanceThe USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows a clear bearish setup forming after a recent rejection from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around 145.923, indicating potential distribution and the start of a corrective move. The price is trading below the upper boundary of the ascending channel and has started to show bearish intent after multiple rejections from the FVG resistance zone.
The structure appears to be forming a corrective ABC wave or the beginning of a deeper Wave 4 correction within a larger Elliott Wave count. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent low at 142.405 to the high at 145.923 have been plotted to identify potential support zones.
Target 1: 144.726
Target 2: 144.283
Stop loss: 145.850
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which is overlapping resistance. It could reverse from this level to the 1st support, which acts as pullback support.
Pivot: 147.17
1st Support: 142.42
1st Resistance: 151.00
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 148.24
1st Support: 145.92
1st Resistance: 150.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 145.87 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 148.38 which is a level that sits above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 142.41 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 144.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 143.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 146.18
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDJPY Buy Opportunity Above 143.525Entry Point: 143.525 (unchanged)
Stop Loss: 141.847 (unchanged)
Target Point One (TP1): 145.063 (unchanged)
Final Target (TP2): Now refined to 147.883 instead of 147.894 — a small, precise update.
📈 Pattern and Structure:
Cup-and-handle formation still intact, indicating a continuation pattern.
Support confirmation at the 143.5 zone, showing a potential base for a bullish reversal.
The chart shows strong upside projection toward the resistance band near 147.8–148.0, highlighted with the upper purple zone.
📊 Risk-Reward Profile:
Risk (Entry to SL): 143.525 – 141.847 = 1.678
Reward (Entry to TP2): 147.883 – 143.525 = 4.358
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 4.358 / 1.678 ≈ 2.6R — a favorable risk/reward setup.
🧠 Trade Notes:
Entry is slightly above a demand zone.
First target is conservative, near a known resistance.
Final target aligns with prior highs and the broader ascending wedge’s upper bound.
Timing suggests the bullish push may unfold over the next few sessions (likely May 6–8 range, as curved arrow indicates a rounded retest/bounce scenario)
USDJPY: Pullback From Resistance 🇺🇸🇯🇵
There is a high chance that USDJPY will retrace
from the underlined blue resistance cluster.
As a confirmation signal, I spotted a double top pattern
on that on an hourly time frame.
Closest support - 145.1
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