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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USDJPYFundamental analysis will always define USD/JPY's directional bias, based on recent forecasts and market dynamics: *(As of Friday, March 7, 2025)* 1. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Non-Farm Employment Change: Actual 151k Forecast 159K vs. Previous 143K Unemployment Rate:actual 4.1% Forecast 4.0% vs. Previous 4.0% Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):actual 0.3% Forecast 0.3% vs. Previous 0.5% Impact: Stronger-than-expected jobs/wage growth: Likely supports the USD by reinforcing Fed rate-cut delays, boosting USD/JPY. Weaker data: Could weaken the USD if markets price in faster Fed easing, favoring JPY strength. Department: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 2. US Consumer Credit (m/m) actual 18.1B ,Forecast: $15.6B vs. Previous $40.8B Impact: A sharp decline could signal weaker consumer spending, weighing on USD sentiment. Department: Federal Reserve. 3. BoJ Policy Signals Key Event: BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that further rate hikes are possible if inflation sustains above 2%. Impact: Hawkish BoJ rhetoric (next meeting: April 9) could strengthen JPY, pressuring USD/JPY downward. 4. US Tariff Policies Risk: President Trump’s tariffs on China/Canada have raised fears of Japan being targeted next. Trade tensions could: Boost JPY: As a safe-haven currency during geopolitical uncertainty. Weaken JPY: If tariffs harm Japan’s export-driven economy. 5. Fed Speeches Recent Tone: Fed Chair Powell emphasized data dependency but warned of inflation risks from tariffs. Impact: Hawkish Fed commentary supports USD; dovish hints favor JPY. Bullish USD/JPY Case: Triggers: Strong NFP/wage growth + Fed delays rate cuts + BoJ delays further hikes. Target: Retest 149.75–152.00. Bearish USD/JPY Case: Triggers: Weak US jobs data + BoJ rate-hike bets + Safe-haven JPY demand (tariff risks). Departments Responsible for Data Releases US Jobs/Inflation Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). BoJ Policy: Bank of Japan (Governor Ueda/Deputy Uchida). Summary USD/JPY’s near-term direction hinges on: US Labor Market Strength (NFP/wages). BoJ’s Rate-Hike Timeline (April meeting). Trade War Escalation Risks (Trump tariffs). Traders should monitor these catalysts for breakout opportunities.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
USDJPY Short📉 Short Trade Idea: USDJPY 🔻 Short Entry: 148.90 - 149.10 🛑 Stop Loss: 149.60 🎯 Target: 147.00 1:3 Risk Reward Trade 🔎 Trade Rationale: ✅ Bearish Bias on Weekly & Daily TF – Price action aligns with higher timeframe weakness. ✅ Weak Weekly Start (NY Session Monday) – Momentum favors sellers. ✅ Trading Below Last 2 Sessions' Lows – Indicating potential continuation. ✅ Sell Signal Triggered During Pre-London Session – Aligns with session-based volatility. 📊 Trade Management: Monitor price action near 147.00 for potential early reaction, adjust SL if needed.
Short
by Wealthy_Vikish
USDJPY - Bullish divergence spotted 1 hUSDJPY 1H Analysis (March 7, 2025) Market Structure & Price Action: The price is currently around 147.44, after a recent downtrend. A key resistance level is marked at 148.169, which previously acted as support. A bullish divergence is visible between price and RSI, indicating a possible reversal or at least a short-term retracement. Technical Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is at 40.69, showing an upward trend while price is still declining. This divergence could suggest weakening selling pressure and potential bullish momentum. Volume: Volume shows some spikes, suggesting buyers might be stepping in at this level. Key Levels to Watch: 148.169 – If price breaks above this level, we may see further bullish movement. 147.00 – A crucial support level; a break below could lead to further downside. Trading Bias & Strategy: If bullish divergence plays out, buying opportunities may emerge above 147.50 with targets near 148.00-148.20. If price fails to reclaim 148.169, further downside continuation is possible.
Long
by Forexbeats
USDJPY: Ready To start another bearish waveUSDJPY: Ready To start another bearish wave During the previous week, former President Trump accused China and Japan of intervening in the forex market, claiming they were taking advantage of the US. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba responded, stating that Japan is not pursuing a currency devaluation policy and disagreed with Trump's accusations. Since then, the JPY has become more volatile, possibly pushing USD/JPY down to satisfy Trump's demands. Additionally, Japan aims to avoid a trade war with the US. The odds are that USD/JPY could begin another bearish wave following this week's turmoil, as shown on the chart. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
2
Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad RetreatThe Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further. Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
by ChartMage
USDJPY 4000K PROFITS CLOSING FOR NFP LIVE TRADE UPDATEMonetary Policy Divergence: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have different monetary policy stances. If the BOJ moves towards tightening (raising interest rates) while the Fed potentially eases (lowering rates), this can strengthen the Japanese yen (JPY) and weaken the USD/JPY pair.   Specifically, increased speculation regarding the BOJ ending its ultra-loose monetary policy and raising rates has put pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Short
by THEPROTRADERZA
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 7, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses. Trade recommendation: BUY 147.600, SL 147.000, TP 148.400
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY...Continues to decline....Based on the analysis of USDJPY's technical setup, here's a structured trade plan: --- ### *USDJPY Short Trade Plan* *Trigger:* Consolidation below 148.90 (e.g., closing below on 4H/daily chart). *Entry:* After confirmed breakdown, ideally with a retest of 148.90 as resistance. *Target:* 147.00 (190-pip downside). *Stop Loss:* 50-70 pips above entry (e.g., 149.40–149.60 to account for volatility). *Risk-Reward Ratio:* ~1:3 to 1:4 (favorable). --- ### *Key Technical Rationale* 1. *Price Action:* - Rejection from 151.00 resistance (bearish structure). - Breakdown below 148.90 support confirms bearish continuation. 2. *Indicators:* - *Alligator:* Lips (green) crossing below Jaw (blue) signals trend reversal. - *MACD:* Cross below 0-line confirms bearish momentum acceleration. 3. *Target Validation:* - 147.00 aligns with prior swing lows and Fibonacci extensions (61.8% retracement from recent rally). --- ### *Risks to Consider* - *False Breakdown:* Watch for a swift reclaim of 148.90 (stop hunt). - *BoJ Intervention:* Risk of yen-buying intervention if JPY weakens sharply. - *Upcoming Data:* U.S. CPI/Jobs data or BoJ policy shifts could disrupt the setup. --- ### *Execution Tips* - Wait for *price confirmation* (e.g., two consecutive closes below 148.90). - Monitor MACD histogram for strengthening bearish momentum. - Hedge with a long JPY basket (e.g., short AUDJPY/GBPJPY) to diversify risk. --- *Final Note:* This trade aligns with bearish technicals, but stay agile given macro risks. Adjust stops if fundamentals shift.
Short
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
USDJPY STRONG FALLING OPPORTUNITY 1. 144.00 Support May Hold Strong The analysis assumes 144.00 will break, but this is a key psychological and historical support level. If buyers step in, USD/JPY could reverse back up instead of continuing downward. 2. Rebound Towards 150.00 Possible Instead of a lower low, USD/JPY could bounce off intermediate demand zones and attempt a retest of resistance at 150.00. US economic strength (inflation, interest rates) could support the dollar and invalidate the downtrend. 3. Lower Highs are Not Confirmed Yet If the price stays above 146.50, the trend could shift back bullish, disrupting the bearish projection. Lack of strong selling pressure near 147.00-146.00 could mean the market is undecided rather than fully bearish 4. Macroeconomic Factors Favor USD Strength If Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains dovish and the Fed keeps rates high, USD/JPY might resume its uptrend instead of falling
Long
by mrsamfx81
3
ANALYSIS ON THE USD/JPY PAIR (1D & 1H TF)On the Monthly TF, this pair has slowly been on an uptrend while taking impulsive moves and pullbacks along the way. Despite retesting the last temporary support zone around the 140 price level (in Sept 2024), recent events are showing that it may break below that region as we have seen a strong resistance around the 160 region. If it breaks below 139 we might see it dropping below to the 120. If it doesn't, then it will continue its Impulsive move and pullback pattern to a new ATH. Let's see how it plays out. PS: Don't forget that FA often affects TA (positively or negatively - depending on your analysis). #UseRiskManagement
by cryptossential
USDJPY Trading Symbol: USDJPY Timeframe: 15 minutes (15m) Overall Review: The USDJPY chart on the 15-minute timeframe indicates that the price is in a downtrend. The price appears to be consolidating near the support level. Key Points: Resistance Levels: The main resistance is around 147.624. This level acts as a ceiling, and the price may decrease if it encounters this area. The next resistance is around 148.000, which is a significant psychological level. Support Levels: The primary support is around 147.000. This level acts as a floor, and the price may increase if it reaches this area. The next support is seen around 146.500, which could be the next target for sellers if the previous support is broken. Possible Scenarios: Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 147.624 and decreases after encountering this area, there is a possibility that the downtrend will continue to the support level of 147.000. Traders can consider selling near the resistance and after receiving confirmation, while practicing risk management. Bullish Scenario: If the price can break through the resistance level of 147.624 and consolidate, there is a possibility of the price increasing to the 148.000 level. Traders can consider buying after the resistance is broken and a pullback occurs, while practicing risk management. Recommendations: Always practice risk management and use stop-loss orders. Before entering a trade, review fundamental factors and news related to USDJPY. Keep in mind that the forex market is very volatile, and analyses may change in the short term. Note: This analysis is just a perspective and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own analysis and consult with a financial advisor before making trades.
Long
by yghadamgahi
USDJPY → Readiness to break the daily support levelFX:USDJPY is testing strong key support at 148.64 for a breakdown. A falling dollar could affect further movement The falling dollar is supporting the Japanese Yen, thus we may see the currency pair falling. The price is trying to break the support of the daily level. A pre-breakdown consolidation of 150.3 - 148.64 is formed relative to this support. The last retest of the level ended with a small false breakdown, indicating that there is no one to defend the support anymore, there was no reaction except for another local consolidation, the purpose of which is to accumulate the potential to break the support. Resistance levels: 150.3, 150.95 Support levels: 148.64, 147.17 The focus is on the level of 148.64 concerning which the market is struggling. The bulls have little chance to hold this level, as the dollar's fall exerts quite a lot of pressure. The breakdown and fixing of the price below 148.64 may provoke a fall to 147 - 144. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
Dollar-yen’s downtrend continues below ¥148The yen has generally continued to perform well in recent days as participants continue to focus on probable further tightening by the Bank of Japan this year as the outlook for rates in the USA has become somewhat more dovish. Although unemployment rose slightly in Japan to 2.5% last month, the job market there is overall quite strong while Japanese annual headline inflation reached a high of more than two years at 4%. Dollar-yen’s downtrend had seemed quite mature last week but now momentum has returned, pushing the price below support from the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement. Although there’s no oversold signal from either the slow stochastic or Bollinger Bands at the time of writing, the former remains very close to the zone of selling saturation. Volume meanwhile has increased significantly in recent days, which might suggest larger intraday movements. The next obvious strong support is the area of the 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥144.30. That would be quite an aggressive target, so it’d probably take the price a while to reach there if the downtrend continues. Continuation lower might be confirmed by two consecutive closes below ¥148. ¥151 is a possible short-term resistance based on behaviour earlier in the week. The upcoming NFP might complicate the current technical picture, especially if the result is at all surprising. Other things being equal, a better NFP suggests higher inflation also, and the opposite is also often true, so if there’s a surprise either way traders might start to price in expectations for next week’s CPI more firmly. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 6 March 2025 - USDJPY under bearish pressure - Likely to fall to support level 146.00 USDJPY currency pair is under bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the support zone between the support level 148.60 (the former monthly low from December) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from September. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the start of January. Given the strongly bullish yen sentiment seen today, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 146.00, the target for the completion of the active ABC correction (2).
Short
by FxProGlobal