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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

USDJPY Trade Plan – May 19Price approaching key demand zone — 3 setups locked in: 👇 🟢 1st Buy Entry 📍 Entry: 144.099 🎯 TP: 144.507 🛑 SL: 143.978 📈 R:R ≈ 3.38 🔹 Quick scalp from zone top -Look for bullish 15M reaction 🟢 2nd Buy Entry 📍 Entry: 143.755 🎯 TP: 144.531 🛑 SL: 143.602 📈 R:R ≈ 5.05 🔹 Stronger level — better risk-reward for continuation bounce( this will be HIT or MISS/SL) 🔴 Breakout Sell Plan 📍 Entry: 143.669 🎯 TP: 142.844 🛑 SL: 143.871 📈 R:R ≈ 4.09 ⚠️ Only valid if price breaks zone with full-bodied follow-through candle ⏱️ Let market come to you. This can happen in next 1-2 days or Tonight.
Long
by tradingwith_ryann
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May–June 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): Policy rate: 4.25%–4.50% (held steady in May 2025). Outlook: Cautious stance amid mixed economic signals; markets expect no cuts until July 2025 unless inflation reaccelerates. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (unchanged in May 2025, highest since 2008). Outlook: Dovish despite trimming growth and inflation forecasts; further hikes unlikely until 2026 due to U.S. tariff risks and weak GDP (-0.7% annualized in Q1). Differential: ~3.75–4.00% in favor of USD, sustaining a strong yield advantage for the dollar. Upcoming Economic Data and Events United States May 29: GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd estimate): Expected to confirm 2.4% QoQ growth, rebounding from Q1 contraction. Core PCE Prices QoQ (2nd estimate): Forecast to ease to 2.6% (from 3.5% in Q1), critical for Fed’s inflation assessment. May 30: Core PCE Price Index MoM/YoY: Key Fed inflation gauge; YoY expected at 2.6% (above 2% target). Fed Communications: FOMC Minutes (May 27) and speeches by Powell, Barkin, and Williams to clarify policy trajectory. Japan BoJ Policy Signals: Focus on U.S. tariff negotiations (24% on Japanese exports) and their impact on growth. Revised 2025 GDP growth to 0.5% (from 1.0%) and core inflation to 2.2% (from 2.7%) . Trade Data: Export performance under U.S. tariffs (autos, machinery) to influence JPY sentiment. Directional Bias for USD/JPY Short-Term (May–June): Bullish USD/JPY Fed’s steady rates vs. BoJ’s dovish hold sustains yield advantage. U.S. economic resilience (rebounding GDP, strong labor market) contrasts with Japan’s contraction. U.S. Tariff Escalation: Could dampen global growth, boosting safe-haven JPY. BoJ Surprise Hike: Unlikely but not impossible if inflation overshoots. Fed Dovish Shift: If U.S. data weakens, rate cut bets may pressure USD. Summary Table Factor USD Impact JPY Impact USD/JPY Bias Fed Rate Hold Strengthens USD – Bullish BoJ Dovish Stance – Weakens JPY Bullish U.S. GDP Rebound Supports USD – Bullish Japan’s GDP Contraction – Pressures JPY Bullish Conclusion: USD/JPY retains a bullish bias in the near term, driven by the Fed’s yield advantage and Japan’s economic fragility. However, escalating U.S. tariffs and safe-haven JPY demand could cap gains. Monitor U.S. inflation data (Core PCE) and BoJ rhetoric for shifts in momentum.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
2
USD/JPY Breakdown: Sell the Rallies, Ride the TrendUSD/JPY has decisively shifted bearish across all key timeframes. On the daily chart, the pair broke below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs with consistent lower highs and lows. The hourly chart confirms this trend, with bearish EMA stacking and failed attempts to reclaim the 200-hour EMA. RSI remains under 50 across timeframes, signaling persistent bearish momentum without exhaustion. The 15-minute chart highlights ideal short-entry setups on pullbacks to the 20- or 50-EMA, especially when RSI fails to breach 50. The 200-EMA on this timeframe acts as dynamic resistance near 145.30. Short entries are favorable on rallies to the 145.10–145.35 zone, with downside targets at 144.80, 144.50, and potentially 144.20. For the week ahead, the strategy is clear: fade rallies into EMA resistance and use RSI confirmation for timing. Avoid chasing lows—wait for price to come to you. Tight stops just above the EMAs minimize risk, and partial profit-taking at swing lows allows for trend-riding flexibility. As long as USD/JPY remains below the 200-hour EMA, bearish momentum dominates. Trade with the trend, manage risk with precision, and stay alert for breakdowns below key support levels.
Short
by BlackCandleTrader
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 19, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair attracted new sellers on Monday and fell to a one-week low of around 144.800 during the Asian session. Furthermore, the current economic climate suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, which supports the prospects for a continuation of the recent corrective decline from the nearly six-week high reached last Monday. It is widely anticipated that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in 2025, a development that is expected to continue providing support to the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, the unexpected downgrade of the US government's credit rating is discouraging investors from taking risks and is instead favouring traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen. On Friday, Moody's downgraded America's main sovereign credit rating by one notch, to 'Aa1', citing concerns over the country's rising debt. Meanwhile, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut rates amid signs of weakening inflation and the likelihood that the US economy will see several quarters of sluggish growth. At the start of the new week, the US Dollar remains depressed and exerts additional downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the lack of follow-through selling below the psychological 145.00 mark is forcing bears to exercise caution before positioning themselves for deeper losses. On Monday, the US will not release any market-moving economic data, so the dollar will be influenced by speeches by influential FOMC members. Furthermore, an improvement in risk sentiment is likely to result in increased demand for the Japanese Yen, thereby providing some momentum to the USD/JPY pair. However, the diverging policy expectations of the BoJ and the FOMC confirm the negative outlook for the near term. Consequently, any recovery attempt could be perceived as a strategic opportunity for divestment, and is likely to be constrained. Trade recommendation: SELL 144.700, SL 145.500, TP 143.800
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance. Pivot: 143.80 1st Support: 140.52 1st Resistance: 148.62 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
This could be a trade of a lifetime. Watching JPY/USD🧠 Technical Analysis: USD/JPY (1M Chart) — May 16, 2025 📍 Chart Summary: Asset: USD/JPY Timeframe: 1-Minute Tool: Fibonacci Retracement Observation: The price has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 145.55–145.56, which aligns with a historical order block. Strong support is evident at 145.557, confirmed by reaction wick and historical volume absorption. The projected path (red arrow) suggests a potential bullish reversal targeting 146.552 (1.382 Fibonacci extension). 📊 Key Levels: Level Type Price Key Support (Order Block) 145.557 Entry Area (Fib 0.618) 145.648 Local Resistance 146.100 Target (1.382 ext.) 146.552 ✅ Trade Setup (Bullish Bias): Entry: 145.56–145.65 Stop-Loss: Below 145.45 (Fib 0.5 + prior low buffer) Take-Profit: 146.10 → 146.38 → 146.55 Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 if executed properly 🧠 Probability Estimate: Reversal from 61.8% Fib + OB: ~70% Hitting 146.55 (1.382 ext.): ~55–60% Invalidation: Break & close below 145.45 (below 0.5 level)
Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
USDJPY (weekly analysis)📊 USDJPY – Weekly Outlook Chart Analysis The previous weekly candle closed strong bearish, signaling potential momentum continuation toward a new low around 143.900. However, there's a high probability that early-week price action (Monday–Tuesday) could revisit the previous week’s upper wick zone, between 146.800–147.900, before sellers step in. 🔹 Three key scenarios mapped on chart: 🟡 Bullish pullback before continuation lower 🔵 Range-bound price action 🔴 Immediate continuation to the downside 🧠 Key Levels: Weekly Resistance: 148.635 Mid Zone/Weekly Sellers Area: 146.704–147.400 Weekly Support Zone: 143.960 – 142.789 ⚠️ I’ll be monitoring Monday and Tuesday closely for reaction within the upper wick region to gauge strength or weakness. Patience will be key as structure unfolds. 💬 Feel free to drop your thoughts or chart setups below ⬇️
Short
by MillionaireMind717
USD/JPY) support level back up Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the 4-hour timeframe suggests a bullish setup with the following key insights: Analysis Overview: 1. Current Price: 147.492 2. Support Zone: Around 145.263 to 146.000 Marked as "Support Level / FVG" (Fair Value Gap), this is the potential demand zone where the price may retrace before bouncing. 3. Trendline: An ascending trendline is supporting the bullish structure. 4. EMA 200: Price is trading above the 200 EMA (145.263), which is generally a bullish signal. 5. RSI Indicator: RSI is near overbought levels (currently at 63.46 and 70.56), suggesting strong bullish momentum but a potential pullback. 6. Target Zone: 151.360 Highlighted as the "Target Point" – this is the resistance area where price might face selling pressure. Mr SMC Trading point Trade Idea: Entry: Buy on retracement into the support zone (around 145.5–146.0). Stop Loss: Below the support zone or EMA (around 144.800 or as per risk tolerance). Take Profit: Near the target zone around 151.360. Risk-to-Reward: Favorable, approximately 1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on the entry. Conclusion: The idea is based on price respecting support, fair value gap (FVG), bullish structure, and a target based on recent price projections. If the price respects the support and bullish trendline, the bullish continuation towards 151.360 is a valid expectation. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
15
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 145.90 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 146.83 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 144.35 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 71% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
BUY USDJPY USDJPY Buy Bias Analysis – May 2025 I'm bullish on USDJPY following the strong reversal from the weekly demand zone at 139.901 touched on April 21, 2025. The pair has shown consistent bullish sentiment since April 22, confirming institutional interest and price strength. Seasonality supports this move, with historical patterns favoring USD strength during this period. From COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective , commercial institutions are heavily long USDJPY, further reinforcing the bullish outlook. Their positioning often reflects informed, long-term sentiment. Moreover, recent flows into the japanese Yen as a safe haven appear to be unwinding. With the USD regaining momentum, a massive sell-off in the Yen is likely, providing strong upside pressure on USDJPY. In conclusion, with technical support, seasonal tailwinds, and institutional backing, I maintain a strong buy bias on USDJPY . FOLLOW ME FOR WEEKLY BIAS
Long
by CartoonForex
5
USDJPY Analysis - Potential Reversal at Support LevelThis analysis is based on the recent price action observed in the USDJPY pair on the 15-minute chart. After a clear downtrend, the price formed a potential reversal pattern with the completion of an ABCD formation, where price touched a strong support zone at 145.40. The green trendline confirms the bullish outlook as the market is respecting this level, and a rebound is expected. Trade Idea: Entry: 145.40 (Support level) Target 1: 146.50 Target 2: 146.90 Stop Loss: 145.20 (Below the recent support)
by Hamidd123
1
JPY/USD Breakout from Curve Line – Targeting Upper Resistance JPY/USD presents a classic curve bottom formation, which is a powerful technical structure indicating accumulation by smart money. It’s supported by key price action behaviors like support/resistance flips, retesting confirmation, and a well-defined target zone. Let’s break it down piece by piece. 📉 1. Curve Formation – Accumulation Phase The most noticeable element here is the parabolic (curve) structure formed between October 2024 and March 2025. This kind of structure often reflects a slow accumulation process: Price dips over several months form a rounded bottom — also called a saucer pattern. This shows institutional players are quietly accumulating, while retail traders are often trapped in sell-side positions. As the curve matures, the volume and momentum begin to shift, signaling the beginning of a bullish breakout. This accumulation curve is bullish by nature and becomes even more potent when followed by a breakout and retest. 🔄 2. SR Flip Zone (Support-Resistance Interchange) One of the most critical concepts in price action is the SR flip — where old resistance turns into new support. In this case: The yellow-shaded zone previously acted as resistance — confirmed by multiple rejections. After the breakout, this same zone is being retested as support — a healthy technical confirmation that the market has accepted higher prices. This flip zone is a launchpad for continuation to the upside. 📍 3. Retest Confirmation – Smart Entry Opportunity Zooming into recent price action: The market pulled back cleanly into the SR zone and the curve line. The confluence of horizontal support and the curved trendline makes this an extremely strong retest zone. Buyers stepped in with force, suggesting that demand is active at this level. This retest is where risk-to-reward is optimized. The ideal entries usually happen when price confirms structure after a breakout — not before. 🎯 4. Target Zone – Next Bullish Objective The next logical target is shown in the blue box above (~0.00705–0.00710). Here's why this zone is important: It marks a previous supply/resistance area. It aligns with psychological round numbers and past consolidation. A measured move from the bottom of the curve also aligns with this target. In essence, it is the profit-taking zone where the market is likely to pause or reverse temporarily. 🔎 5. Insider Supply & Central Zone – Institutional Traces The chart labels an “Insider Supply” area at the base of the curve. This implies: Hidden accumulation likely occurred at this level. Institutions tend to trap retail sellers during these periods with false breakdowns. Once they’ve loaded up, price shifts upward in a controlled fashion — exactly what has happened here. The Central Zone is the battlefield — the area where prior indecision took place, which has now turned into a stepping stone for upward movement. 💡 Strategy Recap: Parameter Value Entry Retest of SR Flip (0.00680–0.00685) Stop Loss Below curve base (~0.00670 or lower) Target 0.00705–0.00710 R/R Ratio 1:2 or better This strategy is technically sound, supported by structure, and has strong reward potential. 🧠 Market Psychology: Smart money accumulates when price is quiet and sentiment is bearish. After accumulation, a controlled markup begins, with retests engineered to confirm the breakout. Retail traders tend to enter late or get faked out — while institutions already hold positions. This chart is a textbook example of how professional traders operate and manage structure-based risk. 🏁 Final Thoughts: This is a high-probability technical setup built on multiple layers of confluence: Curve structure SR flip Demand zone retest Momentum shift If momentum continues, the 0.00710 zone is a very realistic short-term target. Traders should manage risk tightly and monitor price behavior near the upper resistance box.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY - Trendline Support to Determine Next Big MoveThe USD/JPY pair has been trading within a well-defined upward trajectory, currently testing key levels around 145.68. The diagonal trendline visible on the chart serves as a critical support level that has consistently propelled the pair higher since mid-April. Should the price respect this trendline in the coming sessions, we could see a temporary pullback before potentially rallying toward the resistance zone around 148.50, highlighted by the upper purple rectangle. However, traders should closely monitor any breaks below this trendline as it would signal a significant shift in momentum and possibly indicate a deeper correction. The pair appears to be consolidating after the recent pullback from May highs, with the trendline interaction likely determining the next directional move. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by financialflagship
USDJPY Bullish Breakout Setup – Retest at Key Demand ZoneUSDJPY is respecting a clean bullish structure after rebounding from the 140.100 base. Price made a higher high near 148.650, followed by a pullback into the previous demand zone around 145.000. Technical Breakdown: Market Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate a strong uptrend. Demand Zone: Clean reaction from the 145.000 zone, which previously acted as resistance-turned-support. Target Zones: First TP: 147.900 (previous swing high) Final TP: 150.600 (key resistance level) Invalidation Level : Close below 144.800 could invalidate this bullish scenario. If price sustains above 145.000, the bullish trend is likely to continue. As always, manage risk carefully. Like & Follow for more clean, high-timeframe breakdowns!
by Mrshazee