Long-term Analysis of USD/JPYIn this analysis, I used higher timeframes—specifically, the weekly timeframe to identify a box and a touch of the box's bottom on the daily and 4H charts. I also found other valuable details such as trendlines, order blocks, and FVGs. I hope the chart I shared helps you understand what I’ve marked.
But let's put that aside for a moment. Today I wanted to talk about something different.
For a while now, I’ve been in the process of immigrating to Germany. I haven’t had much time to trade lately, and all my capital has gone into this move. You might not believe this, but during the past two days, when we made about 10% profit in Forex (which I posted for you), I didn’t take any positions myself because I didn’t have the capital to trade.
Still, I put a lot of effort and precision into the analysis—because I consider this capital as if it were my own. I truly didn’t want you to risk even a cent.
I’ll continue sharing my analysis, but I have two small requests from you:
Please always check and verify the analysis yourself before taking a position.
You’re never obligated to follow or read/listen to my ideas.
Lastly, if you happen to know any banks or platforms in Germany (or anywhere else) where I can trade or work and earn an income after moving, I’d be grateful if you could let me know.
Just remember: the first request is mandatory—you must do your own analysis.
Much love to you all.
Have a great day (or night), and may you always be wealthy and successful.@soroushyyyy telgram
JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY Trade Plan: Long from Imbalance Zone on Bullish BOSUSDJPY Trade Idea & Analysis
Chart Context:
The 1H USDJPY chart shows a strong bullish impulse, followed by a consolidation and a potential retracement into a clear imbalance zone (highlighted between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, around 146.76–146.32). The market structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows.
Market Fundamentals & Sentiment (as of May 2025):
USD Strength: The US dollar remains supported by persistent inflation and the Fed’s hawkish stance, with markets pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes or a prolonged period of higher rates.
JPY Weakness: The Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no immediate signs of tightening. This divergence keeps upward pressure on USDJPY.
Risk Sentiment: Global risk appetite is stable, favoring carry trades and supporting USDJPY upside.
Trade Plan:
Look for a retrace into the imbalance zone (146.76–146.32). Enter long on a confirmed bullish break of structure (BOS) on lower timeframes. Target the recent swing highs (148.65 and above), with a stop loss below the retracement low.
Not financial advice.
USDJPY SHORTFollowing last week’s sustained bullish rally, price has just completed an M formation right above a 4H order block. The second leg of the M coincided with a bearish pin bar on the 1H and a clean bearish engulfing — textbook signs of distribution.
Price Action Insight:
Instead of breaking down immediately, price is returning back toward a minor OB near the second leg — a common smart money trap designed to fake a bullish continuation, trap late buyers, and then engineer liquidity before the real move down begins.
Key Bias:
I am short-biased. Structure has flipped. Liquidity above the M is cleared, and now the market might be looking to deliver into downside inefficiencies. News, in my opinion, will likely act as the catalyst — not the cause — for the next impulse.
What I’m Watching:
OB retest near 4H M-top
Rejection wick or lower timeframe confirmation on retest (15m–1H)
Reaction around 1:30 PM news (USD CPI or relevant event)
Trade Management Tip:
If you’re already in this trade like I am — manage it smartly. Never enter solely based on someone else's idea. Make sure your bias aligns with your own technicals, confirmations, and risk.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just how I see the chart based on structure, liquidity, and price action. Trade your own plan. Stay sharp.
A Short USDJPY Buy🌞 Good Morning, Traders! 🌞
It’s a beautiful, great morning — let’s get ready to learn and earn! 💪📊
Here’s something I want you to understand today:
📈 Price always moves from one zone to another.
When it reaches a zone, it often pauses (rests) before continuing its movement — depending on whether buyers or sellers are in control at that moment.
🧠 Here’s a key insight:
Most times, buyers are positioned around the middle of the 4H candle.
That’s exactly why we're taking this BUY trade — the price is resting and showing signs of buyer strength from that level.
So keep your eyes sharp and your mind focused. 👀
Understanding why we take trades is what separates smart traders from lucky ones.
Let’s stay patient, stay consistent, and grow together. 🚀
USD/JPY Bullish Setup – Demand Zone Buy Opportunity Toward 151.5🔍 Chart Overview (4H Timeframe):
Currency Pair: USD/JPY
Trend: 📈 Uptrend
EMA 70: 🔴 (144.776) – Price is trading above it = Bullish Bias
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🟦 Demand Zone
📌 Zone: 144.804 – 146.324
💡 What it means: Strong buying interest expected here
🟢 Support line + EMA = Confluence zone!
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✅ Entry Point:
📍 Between: 146.324 – 146.423
🎯 Best area for long (buy) position
📊 Wait for a pullback to this area before entering
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❌ Stop Loss:
📉 Below demand zone
🔻 Range: 144.705 – 144.776
🛡️ Helps protect against unexpected drop
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🎯 Target Point:
📈 151.500
🟩 Big reward area
🔥 Previous resistance zone = Ideal profit-taking point
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🧭 Summary:
✅ Entry: 146.324
❌ Stop: 144.776
🎯 Target: 151.500
Risk-to-Reward: Excellent!
USD/JPY 4H Analysis: Demand Zone Re-Test Before Bullish Continua1. Trend Channel
🔼 Uptrend: The pair is moving inside an ascending channel.
▪️ Support: Lower boundary of the channel.
▪️ Resistance: Upper boundary of the channel.
2. Recent Price Action
🔴 Pullback: After reaching the top at 146.199, price is retracing.
📉 Price is now heading toward the Demand Zone.
3. Demand Zone
🟦 Demand Zone (142.405 – 143.180):
This zone could act as a strong support
Buyers might step in here
Watch for bullish patterns or rejections around this area
4. EMA 70
📏 EMA 70 (143.568) is slightly below current price (143.949) — this may offer temporary support/resistance.
5. Target
🎯 Target Point: 146.194
If price bounces from demand zone, this is the next bullish target.
Possible Scenario
1. 🔽 Price dips into the Demand Zone
2. 🟢 Bullish bounce → Confirm with candlestick signals
3. 🚀 Upside move targeting 146.194
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 148.24
1st Support: 145.92
1st Resistance: 150.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY Short: Video WalkthroughHello, this is the video walkthrough on the USDJPY short idea that I posted 7 hours earlier. Price has since moved down so you would either scale in your short position, or do this on a smaller size based on your risk management. But definitely for this idea, the invalidation point, and thus the stop loss, will be if price moves above the wave Y high.
Good luck!
USD/JPY market structure with a clear bullish bias Technical Analysis Patterns:
A harmonic pattern is drawn with labeled points X, A, B, C, D forming what appears to be a Gartley or Bat pattern.
Fibonacci ratios (e.g., 0.618, 0.786, 1.618) are marked, typically used to validate harmonic patterns.
Zones:
Resistance Zone: A marked rectangular area around the 148.500 to 149.000 range.
Support Zone: Labeled at the bottom around the 143.500 level.
BOS (Break of Structure): Identified near the 144.500 level indicating a key bullish breakout.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Around 147.500 – 148.000 (current price 147.971 suggests it is within or near the entry zone).
Target: Marked around 151.000.
Stop Loss: Implied to be below the entry box, possibly near 146.000 or just above.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio is favorable, with a large green “Target” box and a smaller red zone below (Stop Loss).
Trend Analysis:
A strong bullish impulse from point C to D.
Market structure suggests a bullish continuation if resistance is broken.
Indicators/Tools:
Price measurement tools, Fibonacci levels, and drawing tools from TradingView’s toolbar are used.
Conclusion:
The chart depicts a bullish harmonic pattern with a potential long trade setup aiming for a breakout above resistance. The analysis includes well-marked support/resistance, entry/exit zones, and market structure with a clear bullish bias.
market structure with a clear bullish bias .
USDJPY 15 MINUTE This chart shows a USD/JPY 15-minute timeframe analysis with a visible trade setup involving a break of a rising trendline:
Bearish Trade Setup: The price broke below the ascending trendline, indicating a potential bearish reversal.
Entry Point: Likely entered just after the trendline break.
Stop Loss: Placed above the recent highs (~148.639).
Take Profit: Set around 146.213, which the price has successfully hit (marked as "target successful").
Pattern: The chart seems to include a possible double top pattern near the circled high, which often signals bearish reversal.
This looks like a well-executed short trade based on classic
USDJPY InsightWelcome to all our subscribers!
Please feel free to share your personal thoughts in the comments. Don't forget to hit the booster and subscribe!
Key Points
- The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs by 115% during a high-level trade negotiation held in Geneva, Switzerland. As a result, the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while China will impose a 10% tariff on U.S. imports.
- U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he "might be able to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week." However, he warned that if the two countries fail to reach an agreement within 90 days, tariffs could be "significantly higher" than the current 30%.
- The possibility of a ceasefire in the Russia–Ukraine war remains uncertain. While the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine proposed a 30-day ceasefire, Russia has not responded and has instead continued drone attacks on Ukraine.
Major Economic Events This Week
+ May 13: U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI)
+ May 14: Germany April Consumer Price Index
+ May 15: U.K. Q1 GDP, U.S. April Retail Sales, U.S. April Producer Price Index (PPI), Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell
+ May 16: Japan Q1 GDP
USDJPY Chart Analysis
Although it briefly stalled near the 146 level, USDJPY has ultimately broken through resistance and is showing a steep upward trend. It is currently trading near the 149 level, and unless there is a major shift, the pair is expected to continue its climb toward the 151 range. We will reassess its direction once it approaches that level.
USD/JPY SHORT SET UP📉 USD/JPY – Short Setup in Play After Major Rally
🗓️ Published May 12, 2025 | 4H Chart | OANDA
After a strong bullish surge in USD/JPY, price has now tapped into a key resistance zone near 148.875, aligning closely with prior supply and the declining 200 EMA. This area also coincides with a psychological resistance level.
💡 A short position has been initiated following rejection from the supply zone, marked by a clean bearish candle and fading momentum. The blue arrow highlights the entry confirmation area.
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 12 May 2025- USDJPY broke the resistance area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 150.00
USDJPY currency pair continues to rise strongly inside the c-wave, which recently broke the resistance area between the resistance level 146.00 (top of the previous wave a), 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from March and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January.
The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the minor c-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the end of April.
USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 150.00 (target price for the completion of the active c-wave).
USDJPY Short: Completion of Double Combination Wave 2 of 3Over here, I present to you what I think is an excellent risk-reward idea.
I’ve drawn a double combination wave structure for a wave 2 of 3. And wave Y itself you can see that A=C.
The stop for this will be just above end of wave Y.
Good luck!
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.This chart represents the technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on the FXCM exchange, using a 1-hour timeframe.
Key Observations:
1. Current Price Movement:
The price is at approximately 148.305 JPY, showing an increase of around 2.02%.
The chart shows a significant bullish movement before reaching the current level.
2. Potential Reversal:
The downward arrow indicates a possible short or sell signal, suggesting that the price might decline after the recent upward move.
The projected target for the potential drop is around 146.179 JPY.
3. Risk and Reward Zones:
The green shaded area indicates a potential profit zone for a short position.
The red shaded area indicates a risk zone, highlighting where the trade might be stopped out.
4. Resistance and Support:
The marked horizontal resistance zone around 149.726 JPY suggests that this is where selling pressure might increase.
The support zone near 146.179 JPY indicates where buyers could step in.
Would you like an analysis of possible trade setups or risk management strategies based on this chart?
Japanese yen tumbles to five-week low on US-China tariff dealThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. USD/JPY is trading at 148.18, up 1.9% on the day. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 148.59, its strongest level since April 3.
The US and China have reached an agreement to slash tariffs on each other's products for 90 days. This would be a major de-escalation in the bruising tariff war between the world's two largest economies. Under the agreement, the US and China will slash tariffs by 115%, leaving US tariffs on China at 30% and China's tariffs on the US at 10%.
The tariff agreement has boosted risk appetite, sending global stock markets higher. The deal has weighed on safe-haven assets like the yen, which is sharply lower on Monday. Gold, another safe-haven, has plunged 3.1% today.
In Japan, household spending and wage growth were down in March. Household spending decelerated to 0.4% m/m, down sharply from 3.5% in February. Average Cash Earnings declined to 2.1% y/y, down from a downwardly revised 2.7% a month earlier. There was more bad news as service-sentiment for April eased, reflecting concern over US tariffs.
These numbers support the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its wait-and-see stance before raising interest rates. The BoJ wants to see inflation remain sustainable at 2%, which will require higher wage growth and stronger consumer spending.
Over the weekend, a host of Fed members made public statements. New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler both noted that current rate policy was in an appropriate place and suggested patience was needed. This message echoed Fed Chair Powell's remarks at last week's FOMC meeting, when he said the Fed would take a wait-and-see attitude due to the uncertainty over US tariffs.
USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 146.83 and 147.48 and is testing resistance at 148.47. Above, there is resistance at 149.04
146.11 and 145.36 are the next support levels