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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USDJPY INTRESTThe market is currently positioned at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating an overbought condition. On the hourly chart, the market is consolidating around this 61.8% level, remaining within the "golden zone." It is anticipated that this consolidation will persist until a breakout occurs. I recommend adopting a strategy of entering buy positions at the lower boundaries and sell positions at the upper boundaries of this range.
by Profitsdaily
USDJPY/Bearish Setups Ahead: (Possibly 670+ pips)After a long bearish run, we've seen a key break below the intra trend low at 146.60. Price has also broken out of the broader trend dating from March 2022 to December 2023, dipping into demand zones along the way. Now trading at a premium in the current downtrend, the logical play is to look for short opportunities. On the 4H timeframe, a rising channel extends from October 4, 2024, at 147.34 up to October 31, 2024. Given upcoming fundamental releases, there’s potential for price to drop below 151.40. A close below this level on the 4H chart would confirm a trendline break and a structural shift, signaling a bearish move that could run down to 145.10 — a solid 670 pips in play. To catch this move early, I’ll be watching the 1H timeframe. If price meets our key condition of closing below 151.40, or ideally falls to 150.88, then a swing entry at 152.21 with an initial target at 149.55 is in focus. We’ll trail down from there as price develops. Remember, the close below 151.40 is essential for validating this entry. Risk according to your tolerance and keep an eye out here for updates on this trade and more. Don’t miss my latest analysis on DXY and Gold heading into the US election!
by Ieios
EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854. Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022. How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025. The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913 1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
USD/JPY:Bank of Japan's Steady Rates and U.S. GDP Data to Shape The Bank of Japan (BoJ) concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday by keeping its short-term interest rate target steady at 0.25%. This decision, while in line with market expectations, sets the stage for potential market volatility, as other global economic indicators could weigh heavily on USD/JPY movement in the coming days. From a technical perspective, price action analysis reveals a notable reversal candle on the daily timeframe, aligning with a pre-identified supply area. This reversal is further supported by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are largely bullish, while “smart money” or institutional investors appear to be shifting their positions to the bearish side. Seasonal patterns also suggest a possible start of a new bearish trend, adding weight to the likelihood of downward movement. In addition, today’s U.S. Advance GDP data could amplify movements if it underperforms expectations, adding pressure on the USD and further supporting a bearish outlook for the USD/JPY pair. A disappointing GDP print could, therefore, accelerate a drop in the USD, setting up the pair for a potential shift in trend. Traders and analysts alike will be closely monitoring these developments, as Japan’s steady rates, combined with potential U.S. economic softness, set the tone for potential volatility in the days ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
USDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental FactUSDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental Factors (31/10/2024) Introduction In today's trading session on October 31, 2024, USDJPY appears to carry a slightly bearish bias due to various fundamental drivers impacting both the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). This article provides a detailed analysis of USDJPY, focusing on the major economic and geopolitical factors contributing to the bearish outlook. By considering both macroeconomic trends and the latest technical indicators, traders can better navigate potential setups for the USDJPY pair. Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today 1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve has recently hinted at maintaining a dovish stance, signaling a potential pause on interest rate hikes. This policy outlook is generally bearish for the USD, as lower interest rates reduce the Dollar’s appeal to investors seeking yield. As a result, the USD could experience downward pressure against the Japanese Yen, contributing to a slight bearish bias for USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan's Commitment to Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has gradually shown signs of flexibility in its yield curve control policy, which could strengthen the Yen. Any indication of a potential shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy is generally supportive for JPY, as it attracts investors looking for stability in an uncertain global environment. This shift increases the possibility of a bearish trend in USDJPY. 3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand - The recent volatility in US Treasury yields has led to fluctuating demand for USD-denominated assets. Lower yields often make the Dollar less attractive, especially in comparison to the Yen, which is considered a traditional safe haven. With a potential decline in yields, demand for USD could weaken, encouraging investors to turn toward JPY and reinforcing the slight bearish outlook for USDJPY. 4. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Sentiment - The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to higher risk aversion in the markets. In times of heightened uncertainty, the Yen benefits as a safe-haven currency. This risk-off sentiment may draw investors to JPY, increasing its strength against USD and creating bearish pressure on the USDJPY pair. 5. Japanese Economic Data - Stronger-than-expected Japanese economic data, including stable GDP growth and improved manufacturing output, have added positive momentum to the Yen. These indicators reflect Japan’s gradual recovery, making the Yen more attractive and adding pressure on USDJPY from the Japanese side. Technical Analysis of USDJPY (31/10/2024) From a technical perspective, USDJPY trades below its 50-day moving average, a signal commonly associated with bearish trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hovers near the 40 level, suggesting potential downside momentum. Key support levels around 147.50 and resistance near 150.00 should be monitored. Key Support: 147.50 Key Resistance: 150.00 Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for 31/10/2024 Given today’s fundamentals and technical conditions, USDJPY exhibits a slightly bearish bias. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, the BOJ’s gradual policy adjustments, and risk aversion in global markets are all contributing to the current outlook. However, traders should remain attentive to any unexpected shifts in global economic data or central bank announcements. For those watching the USDJPY today, focusing on these fundamental drivers and key support levels can provide valuable insights for trading the pair amid a slightly bearish sentiment. SEO-Keywords: #USDJPYForecast #ForexAnalysis #USDToday #JapaneseYen #CurrencyMarket #USDJPYOutlook #BearishUSDJPY #TradingUSDJPY #ForexFundamentals
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
UsdJpy- Will history repeat itself?As we approach the final months of the year, it’s worth noting the impact of JPY repatriation, which traditionally occurs when Japanese investors pull funds back to Japan, boosting yen demand. This trend often leads to an appreciation in the Japanese yen, affecting currency pairs like FX:USDJPY , as demand surges. Historically, this phenomenon has triggered notable yen strength. For example, last year saw USD/JPY fall by around 1,000 pips due to these repatriation flows. Assuming similar conditions prevail, we could anticipate another yen rally by this year's end. Technical Overview of USD/JPY: Currently, USD/JPY recently hit a high of around 154, moving into a key resistance area. At the time of writing, the price hovers above the horizontal support level. A decisive break below it could indicate a bearish “false break,” potentially signaling a larger downside move. Should the downtrend persist, potential targets could be set at: - Slightly under 150, - Followed by further support at 147, - And ultimately, a critical support at 141.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
USDJPY - Bearish TrendCurrently, USD/JPY is showing potential bearish momentum. A key level to watch is the previous higher low; a break below this level would confirm a bearish reversal. Additionally, there is a divergence present on the chart, with the price making higher highs while the RSI shows lower highs. This discrepancy indicates weakening bullish strength, suggesting that sellers may gain control. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
Short
by gulraizali90
USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: Can the 152.89 Support Level Sustain the Recovery?Despite a slight rebound following the BoJ's decision, the Japanese Yen (JPY) still faces multiple challenges. The USD/JPY pair temporarily dipped below 153, but technical indicators suggest that its long-term upward trend remains intact. The combination of the BoJ's loose monetary policy and the possibility that the Fed may soon pause rate hikes continues to support the USD. The technical chart shows strong support at 152.89, acting as a solid anchor to potentially halt further declines in the pair and pave the way for a short-term recovery. However, if resistance at 153.53 is encountered, prices may adjust back to the 153.07 support zone before resuming the upward trend. Traders should keep an eye on these support and resistance levels to identify short-term trading opportunities.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USDJPY_109 2024.10.30 17:50:03 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.98 SL: 153.112 Entry Price: 153.236 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to face selling pressure near 150.00, and a break below 150.05 could indicate a continued decline to below 147.25. * The mean reversion rebound may have reached an overstretched condition, suggesting a potential pause in the upside momentum. * The daily RSI has flashed a bearish condition, indicating a potential pause in the upside momentum. * FX option expiries at 151.00, 152.00, and 152.50 could influence price movements around these levels. **Expected short-term price movement:** Down **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical overview and forecast suggest that the pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth to the area above 159.05. * The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the main scenario indicates a potential drop to levels between 138.08 and 131.25 if the price holds below 151.54, but an alternative scenario indicates a potential rise to levels between 153.88 and 156.74. * The moving averages suggest a short-term bullish trend, but a bearish correction is anticipated before further growth. **Expected long-term price movement:** Up, but with a potential bearish correction before further growth. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data and events emerge. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is facing selling pressure near the 150.00 level, and technical analysis suggests a potential drop to 138.08-131.25 if the price holds below 151.54. * However, the forecast for October 30, 2024, indicates an attempt to test the support area near 151.65, followed by an upward price rebound. * Given the conflicting signals, I would say that the short-term price movement is uncertain, but slightly leaning towards a **downward** movement, with a potential target of 147.25 if the pair breaks through 150.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The US Dollar's outlook remains firm due to expectations of moderate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support the USD/JPY pair. * Japan's National core CPI acceleration could lead to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could weaken the JPY and support the USD/JPY pair. * Technical analysis suggests a potential rise to 153.88-156.74 if the price breaks above 151.54, and a clearance above 149.30 could extend the mean reversion rebound to 151.95. * Based on these factors, I would say that the long-term price movement is expected to be **upward**, with a potential target of 159.05 or higher. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65, which suggests a potential short-term decline. * However, the forecast also mentions a potential rebound upwards to continue growth above 159.05, indicating a possible short-term bounce. * Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral to slightly bearish, with a possible range-bound movement between 151.65 and 159.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical analysis suggests that the pair is moving within a bullish channel, indicating a long-term uptrend. * The forecast mentions a potential growth above 159.05, which supports the long-term bullish outlook. * The fundamental factors, such as the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, also support the long-term strength of the US Dollar. * Overall, the long-term outlook is bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term decline or range-bound movement, but the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
3
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/31/2024This is my idea Nbr 19 after 17 ✅️ USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/31/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
USD/JPY eyes Bank of Japan meetingThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 153.25, at the time of writing, down 0.07% on the day. The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to maintain policy settings, including its benchmark rate at 0.25%. The shock result from Sunday’s general election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority, will means weeks of political uncertainty. The yen weakened to a three-month low after the election but that won’t be enough to prod the BoJ to raise interest rates on Thursday. The BoJ has said in the past that it would not make any rate moves during times of uncertainty, and between the political crisis in Japan and the tight election campaign in the US, it’s a sure bet that policymakers will wait before adjusting rates. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ’s quarterly inflation and growth reports, which will be released at the meeting. The BoJ has said that it will hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with these projections, so these projections could provide clues about the BoJ’s future rate path. Governor Ueda holds a press conference after the meeting, and a reference to the falling yen could signal plans for a rate hike or intervention in the currency markets in the near term. In the US, first-estimate GDP in the third quarter rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in Q2 and below the estimate of 3.0%. This points to a strong economy which has been boosted by robust consumer spending. The Federal Reserve meets on Nov. 7 and the markets have widely priced in a 25-basis point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 153.33. The next support line is 152.80 153.92 and 154.45 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA