JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY WEEKLYHello Traders. This is my analysis for USDJPY. If it breaks out of the trend line, we can expect a significant drop. Let's hope it will make a false breakout from the trend line and continue bullish.
I am not a professional and I would be happy if you share your opinion in the comments.
USDJPY Set to Rise as Support Holds and Dollar Finds TailwindsUSDJPY looks poised for further upside following a period of consolidation and a successful retest of strong support around the 140.50 level. The weekly chart reveals a clear triple bottom pattern, reinforcing the strength of this support zone and suggesting renewed bullish momentum.
The US Dollar is starting to regain strength after a period of weakness, supported by improving U.S. economic data, sticky inflation, and a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In contrast, Japan is unlikely to change its ultra-loose monetary policy in the near term, keeping rate differentials wide and favoring a stronger Dollar.
With the Bank of Japan expected to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future, capital is likely to continue flowing out of the yen. Carry trade flows remain intact, adding to the upward pressure on USDJPY.
Momentum indicators are turning higher, and price action is forming a steady base for another leg up. The market could target the 150 zone in the coming weeks, where the 50-week moving average may act as initial resistance.
As long as 140.50 holds, dips could offer attractive buying opportunities. A sustained move above 145.00 could trigger fresh bullish momentum and accelerate gains.
USDJPY Buy Opportunity Above 143.525Entry Point: 143.525 (unchanged)
Stop Loss: 141.847 (unchanged)
Target Point One (TP1): 145.063 (unchanged)
Final Target (TP2): Now refined to 147.883 instead of 147.894 — a small, precise update.
📈 Pattern and Structure:
Cup-and-handle formation still intact, indicating a continuation pattern.
Support confirmation at the 143.5 zone, showing a potential base for a bullish reversal.
The chart shows strong upside projection toward the resistance band near 147.8–148.0, highlighted with the upper purple zone.
📊 Risk-Reward Profile:
Risk (Entry to SL): 143.525 – 141.847 = 1.678
Reward (Entry to TP2): 147.883 – 143.525 = 4.358
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 4.358 / 1.678 ≈ 2.6R — a favorable risk/reward setup.
🧠 Trade Notes:
Entry is slightly above a demand zone.
First target is conservative, near a known resistance.
Final target aligns with prior highs and the broader ascending wedge’s upper bound.
Timing suggests the bullish push may unfold over the next few sessions (likely May 6–8 range, as curved arrow indicates a rounded retest/bounce scenario)
USDJPY Will Move Higher! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 142.756.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 144.697.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDJPTYWe’re focused on the higher timeframes, but right now on H1 we’re waiting for a dip into the black zone so we can catch a push on H4 and Daily there.
USD/JPY Trendline Resistance - 145.00 SupportUSD/JPY has been tricky this year as the pair has brewed several bear traps and there's even been some bull traps along the way. Trading breakouts in a market like that can be even more frustrating than usual, as a case in point the 140.00 test from a few weeks ago was a brutal false breakout that then led to a 500+ pip reversal.
Last week's Bank of Japan meeting was followed by this week's FOMC meeting and the net result of the two was a stronger USD/JPY, and for the second consecutive week the pair found resistance on the underside of a trendline projection.
But perhaps more notably, the same 145.00 level that bulls could not hold above a week ago showed up as support into the end of this week. I wouldn't want to call the weekly bar as a purely bullish item, however, as it has more of a spinning top/indecisive type of nature. But - given that it closed green for a third week in a row and held above 145, we have to give bulls some credit here, and the door would remain open for a deeper run towards the 146.75 prior swing low. - js
USDJPY Smart Money Short Setup | 30m OB + FVG Reaction🧠 USDJPY 30m SMC Setup | May 9, 2025
We’ve got a high-probability short brewing as price taps the premium zone and aligns with multiple Smart Money Concepts. A clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) is sitting inside a bearish Order Block, with price aggressively wicking into it — right where institutions unload.
🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES:
🧱 Bearish Order Block rejection in premium
⚡ Fair Value Gap filled at 145.910
💰 Risk-to-Reward ~1:4+, targeting discounted zone
🧲 Liquidity sweep + FVG fill = SM distribution trigger
⏳ Entry timing aligned with NY session reaction
📊 Setup Specs:
Pair: USDJPY
Timeframe: 30 min
Entry: 145.910 (after FVG fill)
SL: ~146.246
TP: ~144.440
RR: Approx. 1:4.5
💡 Smart Money Logic:
Price filled a clean imbalance zone, ran liquidity from earlier highs, and instantly showed distribution behavior. If momentum confirms with a bearish break, this becomes a high-conviction short.
📈 Chart Ninja Note:
“FVG + OB is where the banks sell while the crowd buys… don’t be the crowd.”
Supply and Demand re-explainedall you have to do is follow the trend, that's just all i can say, no matter your entry strategy, you must go with the trend, and have a good understanding of market structure.
USDJPYStill an idea untill confirmed.
I don't know what your confirmations are , but mine are yet to be fulfilled.
USDJPY review After a price declined/ negation ( rejected) on146.183.The JPY pair picked momentum from 146.183... making a sell move . Clearing. The previous low 🔅.. price Area of 145.277 . USDJPY is expected to maintain a downward 👇 move to (144.301)
USDJPY Will Fall! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 145.311.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 140.353.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Double top with divergencyI'm not in this trade as it would be triggered in the middle of the night for me. Gonna try to find a opportunity to enter around the highlighted box area so i can still have a reasonable stop for a good RR. If not ,will turn the page and look for another trade.
Yen Falls Past 145 as Dollar StrengthensThe Japanese yen weakened past 145 per dollar, hovering near a one-month low as the U.S. dollar strengthened with improving global trade sentiment and diminishing expectations of near-term U.S. rate cuts. The greenback gained momentum after President Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with the UK, the first since broad U.S. tariffs were introduced last month. He also signaled that tariffs on China could be eased, depending on the outcome of high-level trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland.
Adding pressure on the yen, Fed Chair Powell dismissed the idea of a preemptive rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks and labor market concerns. In Japan, personal spending rose more than expected in March, suggesting resilience in consumption, though a third straight monthly drop in real wages highlighted broader economic challenges.
Resistance stands at 145.90, with further levels at 146.75 and 149.80. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
USDJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALSUSDJPY is currently trading around 145.300 and showing clear signs of bearish pressure from the upper resistance of a broad ascending channel. The market structure suggests a potential rejection, and price action confirms the formation of a rising wedge pattern—a classically bearish setup indicating an upcoming correction. With momentum slowing and sellers starting to step in, I anticipate a move toward the 143.500 zone as price seeks support near the lower trendline.
From a fundamental standpoint, the US dollar is experiencing slight weakness today following softer-than-expected jobless claims data and a cooling CPI projection. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is finding strength from renewed risk-off sentiment and speculation that the Bank of Japan may subtly shift its ultra-loose stance if inflationary pressures persist. This macro backdrop adds more weight to the potential downside in USDJPY over the next few sessions.
Technically, the price has tested the 146.000 resistance zone multiple times but failed to break above it with conviction. This repeated rejection near the top of the channel adds credibility to the bearish outlook. A breakdown from the rising wedge would likely accelerate selling pressure, pushing USDJPY toward the 143.500 level, which aligns well with previous demand zones and the channel’s lower boundary.
I’m closely watching for confirmation below the 145.000 level, which would act as a trigger for short positions. With risk-reward favoring the bears and fundamentals aligning with the technical setup, this is a solid opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a potential pullback in USDJPY.
USD/JPY Faces FVG ResistanceThe USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows a clear bearish setup forming after a recent rejection from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around 145.923, indicating potential distribution and the start of a corrective move. The price is trading below the upper boundary of the ascending channel and has started to show bearish intent after multiple rejections from the FVG resistance zone.
The structure appears to be forming a corrective ABC wave or the beginning of a deeper Wave 4 correction within a larger Elliott Wave count. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent low at 142.405 to the high at 145.923 have been plotted to identify potential support zones.
Target 1: 144.726
Target 2: 144.283
Stop loss: 145.850
USDJPY: Pullback From Resistance 🇺🇸🇯🇵
There is a high chance that USDJPY will retrace
from the underlined blue resistance cluster.
As a confirmation signal, I spotted a double top pattern
on that on an hourly time frame.
Closest support - 145.1
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bearish on USDJPY On a scale of 1h timeframe, we have seen the market has recapture the movement upwards on the whole of the week.
No that it has touched the highest point where there's resistance . According to trend 📉 analysis, we're going to experience down trend.
USDJPY Elliott Wave Outlook – Bearish Wave (C) in Progress?USDJPY appears to be unfolding a classic ABC correction following the completion of a 5-wave impulse pattern. Price action recently bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level (~140.62), but faces resistance around the 0.5 retracement zone (~144.70), where price is currently testing.
Key levels and confluences:
🔹 EMA cluster around current price
🔹 Potential descending channel
🔹 Major resistance zones: 148.77 (Fib 0.382) & 151.92
🔹 Bearish wave (C) projection could extend toward the 137.99–139.62 area
Unless bulls break decisively above 148.77, bias remains bearish with possible continuation toward the lower boundary of the corrective structure.
Watching closely for price reaction at key EMAs and lower highs for short setups.
Loading up on Yen Dollars - USDJPYThis is the 4H chart and I am trading 3 contracts on this pair.
This is going to be a swing trade which may takes some weeks/months to play out. By determining the SL first, you can have a clear idea and know in advance that is how much you are going to LOSE in value terms.
No matter how well your charting or analysis may be, the market may go against you and if that happens, your SL is hit, are you OK, financially ? That means, your 1000 or 500 or 5000 loss - would it be your end of the world? Thus, it is important to put a small fixed amount to do trading and NOT BE GREEDY.
There are so many things you can go LONG/SHORT depending how knowledgable you are with the market. For example, the cutting of the RRR by China this morning along with other stimulus drives the HSI up 2+% but it is now paring down. That means you could see your profits dwindle or worse, turns into a LOSS if you are not watching or preset your SL/profit target. Never be too sure of your chart as market can moves very quickly.
SO, I like swing trade because it is over a longer time frame and once I am ok with the SL, I will go ahead, not adjusting the limits along the week. This defeats the purpose.
By having 3 contracts (you can have 10 or more), it helps to take some profits off the table if halfway you have cold feet, at least you recover some money. Often, the anxiety kicks in not at the beginning but as tension builds up, you start to see your profits rolling one night and the next it is back to zero , that is when your heart starts to beat faster and thoughts racing to tell you to get out or stay calm. This process takes time .
Again, I advocate not having too many positions open as it can be quite challenging for you to manage should something ROCK the market. Just closing your trades fast would make your fingers go numb and not at your call. 3 positions will be just nice and best to diversify.
For me, I like indices , forex and maybe one crypto. You can have a different combination or just concentrate on one.
As usual, trade with spare money that you can afford to lose and NEVER EVER borrow money to trade. Man up, if you lose . Treat it as tuition money and something that you need to pay to learn from your mistakes albeit a costly one. That is why I first started with forex and go for the safest pair - EURUSD .
Best of luck and DYODD
USDJPY BREAKOUT BULLISH PATTERN Technical Pattern Analysis
Current Trend:
USD/JPY has shown a strong bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This indicates increasing buying pressure and positive momentum.
Possible Bullish Patterns Observed:
Ascending Triangle: This is a bullish continuation pattern often indicating that buyers are gaining strength before a breakout.
Bullish Flag: A short-term consolidation that generally resolves in the direction of the previous trend (upward).
Breakout Above Resistance: Recent candles show breakout attempts above key resistance zones, validating bullish sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Support: 144.50–145.00
1st Resistance / Target Zone: 146.400
2nd Resistance / Target Zone: 147.900
Final Resistance / Target Zone: 150.200
USDJPY with Price ActionPrice has broken above the key pivot zone around 145.00, which previously acted as resistance and may now flip into support. We’re currently seeing a minor pullback near the 145.60–146.00 zone after a strong bullish impulse. This red-circled area highlights hesitation, but as long as the price holds above the pivot, I’m maintaining a bullish bias.
The market structure remains clean with higher highs and higher lows. The volume spiked during the move up and has decreased on the pullback—exactly what I want to see in a healthy retracement. I'm watching for a bullish reaction at or slightly above 145.00 to confirm continuation.
If we get a strong bounce from the pivot zone, I’m targeting 147.00 as the first level and 148.50 as the extended target. However, if price breaks and closes below 145.00 with momentum, I’ll reassess—downside support could be around 143.50–144.00.
Next steps: Waiting for a confirmation entry signal (bullish engulfing or strong rejection wick) near the pivot. Key risk to this setup is upcoming USD news and any BoJ commentary that could trigger volatility.
Staying patient—will update if the pivot holds or fails.
