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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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"USD/JPY Buy Setup Pending Strong Support Confirmation"USD/JPY monthly structure is currently exhibiting an OLHC (Open Low High Close) pattern, signaling a potential buy setup. At the moment, we are still following the short-term sell trend until a significant support level is established, which will mark a favorable point for buying. This strong support is expected to form with the appearance of a bullish TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross on the daily timeframe. Currently, two key confirmations are present on the daily chart: a bullish divergence and an Open Low structure. The only element missing for a full buy confirmation is the bullish TDI cross, which will indicate increased buying momentum in the market. My target level for this trade is 145.895 , aligning with the Monthly Open. Please trade with caution. If you find this analysis helpful, kindly support it with a like, share, or comment.
Long
by ezeepips
USD/JPY Poised for Gains as DXY StrengthensThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward momentum as Treasury yields recover from recent losses, bolstering the Greenback’s strength. However, this rally may soon face headwinds, with growing market expectations of additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US Flash Manufacturing PMI, which is due for release within the hour. The PMI data will offer a fresh perspective on the health of the US manufacturing sector, and any surprise in the numbers could influence the Greenback’s near-term trajectory. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight improvement, reflecting stabilizing economic conditions, but traders remain alert for any deviations from the forecast. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability that the Fed could reduce rates by as much as 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of the year. This potential easing has kept some investors cautious, as it could curb the USD’s long-term gains. From a technical standpoint, we are seeing a key opportunity in the USD/JPY pair, which has rebounded from a strong demand area. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are still heavily short on the USD/JPY, while institutional "smart money" appears to be shifting its stance, reducing its bearish exposure. This setup aligns with our previous analysis, where we highlighted the potential for a long position as the pair regains upward momentum. As the USD/JPY continues to rebound from this demand zone, the conditions remain favorable for a long trade. The shift in sentiment among institutional traders, combined with the recovery in Treasury yields and the strength of the DXY, supports the case for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious as the Fed’s rate cut expectations may still influence broader USD sentiment in the months ahead. For now, the focus remains on the US PMI release and its impact on both Treasury yields and the USD. Should the data come in stronger than expected, it could provide additional fuel for the DXY’s rally, further reinforcing the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PMI data could reignite concerns about the Fed’s dovish outlook, potentially pausing the Greenback's current rally. We continue to monitor the situation closely, with a bullish setup in USD/JPY remaining a key focus in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USDJPY / BY BREAKING SUPPLY ZONE / 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS The price has broken out above 147.218, and there is currently bullish pressure , The price is attempting to reach a supply zone between 148.626 and 149.340. For the uptrend to be confirmed, the price must break above this supply zone. If successful, the price could then aim for the next target at 150.790 (the supply line). If the price fails to hold above 147.218 during a retest, this could signal a decline , Breaking below 147.218 might lead to a drop towards favorable value gaps (FVG) at 145.363 and 144.332. Supply zone : 148.626 and 149.340. Demand zone : 142.546 and 141.687. FVG : 145.363 and 144.332.
Long
by ArinaKarayi
1
Might be a bigger top in USDJPY forming. I've been consistent in my net bullish bias on USDJPY since 150. The TA made sense and at the time it seemed silly to me that all of a sudden absolutely everyone, with no Forex experience, all suddenly were entirely certain the USDJPY was going to crash. I've been a Forex trader a long time. Seen a lot of people come and go. If the game was as simple as look for a big red candle and scary news headline to position for the imminent crash, people would do better. What actually happens in Forex is most people get mauled and move on. With all that said, I do not think the USDJPY may be at a high. I also think USDJPY has broken out and we'll ultimately go higher. But I think we're now at a point where the USDJPY crash narrative actually makes sense from a TA perspective. And people are not talking about it anymore. Now they're saying the Yen is collapsing.
Short
by holeyprofit
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Retreats from One-Month HighUSD/JPY Analysis: Price Retreats from One-Month High The USD/JPY chart shows that yesterday (3 October), the price slightly surpassed the 147.230 level, marking the highest point since 3 September. This is significant as it indicates a new swing high, identified by the ZigZag indicator (in purple), which hasn’t been seen in months. Bullish arguments for the USD/JPY chart today: → The price is within an ascending channel (shown in blue), illustrating an upward trajectory for the US dollar. This follows a period where the yen gained strength, pushing the exchange rate below the psychological threshold of 140 yen per dollar. → After the price broke above the upper boundary of the blue channel (signifying overbought conditions), a correction (such as to the channel's median) appears appropriate. Bearish argument: → The brief breach above the prior swing high (indicated by an arrow) may have created a bull trap and triggered stop-losses for sellers positioned just above the 3 September high. Today’s decline supports the view that the break above 147.230 was a false breakout. What’s next for USD/JPY? Much will depend on the fundamentals. On Friday, traders are closely watching US labour market data (to be released at 15:30 GMT+3), which could influence US interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, the yen's movement is affected by uncertainties surrounding Japan’s upcoming prime ministerial change. According to Reuters, recent comments from Shigeru Ishiba have fuelled expectations that Japan's rate hikes might be delayed. Additionally, demand for safe-haven assets is impacting USD/JPY as markets assess the effects of rising tensions in the Middle East on the global economy. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Bullish Bias Supported by Key Market Factors on 04/10/2024 on UJUSD/JPY Analysis: Bullish Bias Supported by Key Market Factors on 04/10/2024 Today, USD/JPY shows potential for a slightly bullish bias due to a confluence of fundamental factors driving USD strength against the Japanese yen. Key drivers, including strong US economic data, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and the Bank of Japan’s accommodative policy, are reinforcing positive sentiment around USD/JPY. This article outlines the factors that could support the USD/JPY bullish outlook in today’s trading session, helping traders anticipate potential market movements and leverage these insights in their strategies. 1. Strong US Economic Data Boosts Dollar Demand The US economy has shown resilience with recent data releases indicating solid growth. Reports on employment, consumer spending, and manufacturing output have exceeded expectations, showcasing sustained economic strength. These data points are bolstering demand for the USD, with traders positioning themselves for potential further gains in USD/JPY. The strong economic indicators align with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and reinforce USD appeal. 2. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Policy Outlook The Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish outlook, with officials signaling a commitment to higher interest rates to curb inflation. This stance increases the yield differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen, as Japan’s Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-low interest rate policy. With a higher expected return on USD holdings, USD/JPY sees further upward pressure, attracting buyers and reinforcing a bullish perspective. 3. Dovish Bank of Japan Policy Limits Yen Appeal The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has retained its dovish policy stance, focusing on stimulus and maintaining low interest rates to encourage economic growth. This stance contrasts starkly with the Federal Reserve's hawkish approach, which benefits the USD/JPY pair. With the BoJ’s commitment to accommodative measures, the yen’s appeal remains limited, creating favorable conditions for a bullish USD/JPY outlook today. 4. Technical Analysis Suggests Upward Momentum Technical indicators align with the fundamentals, signaling a possible continuation of upward momentum for USD/JPY. The currency pair has recently tested and bounced off significant support levels, with indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages suggesting bullish momentum. With USD/JPY trading above key moving averages, the technical setup points towards further bullish potential in the near term. Conclusion: Bullish Bias for USD/JPY on 04/10/2024 Given today’s USD/JPY analysis, the factors of a strong US economy, the Fed's hawkish outlook, the Bank of Japan's dovish stance, and supporting technical indicators create a bullish bias for the pair. Traders should monitor these factors closely as they continue to influence USD/JPY dynamics throughout the trading session. Keywords: USD/JPY analysis, bullish bias, US dollar strength, Japanese yen, Federal Reserve hawkish policy, Bank of Japan dovish stance, USD/JPY technical analysis, forex market, USD/JPY trading insights, USD/JPY bullish trend, USD/JPY 04/10/2024.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY: Back to Uptrend?Hello everyone, Currently, USDJPY continues its strong upward momentum, trading steadily around the high level of 146.70, up 0.19% on the day. From a technical analysis perspective, USDJPY is forming an Elliott Wave 5 pattern, with the first three waves already completed (currently in wave 4). Ben expects the support level around 145.77, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward move, to hold, with the next target being the psychological level of 149.22. What about you? Where do you think USDJPY will gain strength next? Share your thoughts!
Long
by Bentradegold
1
USDJPY (H4) - Probable Next Move.Trade Reason: 1. Weekly Down Trend. 2. H4 Strong Order Block Aria. 3. H4 Strong Bearish Close. 4. Upper H4 EMA20 Level. Hello Friends! I hope it will touch the "146.169" level then it can make some corrections. After her correction, it has more chances to touch the "145.352" level. But if it create counter setup, then close it instant. Do you have any questions, suggestions, or feedback? Then write a comment or private chat. If you need any help, info, or analysis. Then knock me without any hesitation. …Thank you…
by LearningForexB2
3
USDJPY (H1) - Probable Next Move.Trade Reason: 1. Weekly Down Trend. 2. H4 Order Block Aria. 3. H1 Strong Rejection. Hello Friends! I hope it will touch the "146.169" level then it can make some corrections. After her correction, it has more chances to touch the "144.942" level. But if it create counter setup, then close it instant. Do you have any questions, suggestions, or feedback? Then write a comment or private chat. If you need any help, info, or analysis. Then knock me without any hesitation. …Thank you…
Short
by LearningForexB2
1
[USD/JPY] Decades of relationship: A historyOne of the thing that I love about trading is how we can look at the price history. Since this week the TVC:DXY seems gaining momentum (at least in short term), I just think it would be interesting to see the history of relationship between FX:USDJPY as this pair currently possibly pivoting its trend. This is FX:USDJPY weekly chart, goes back to 2001. Since 2001, there are 2 major eras: the era where JPY is strong & the era where USD is strong. Both eras share similar timespan, a decade (10 years or so). If the history rhyme, we might now seeing the change of an era, possibly towards the JPY era. For next 10 years ? I don't really know as today's market is much more complex than even 3 years ago. Nevertheless, current trend is indeed changing. If we look at the current chart, we can see the MACD divergence happened just before the drop in USD value. It's interesting to see how this setup have happened many times in the past 20 years: 2 peaks, MACD divergence, then USD drop. The drop are varied off course, so interesting to see how this time it will played out. There is a sensible explanation for this though & it's quite simple: FED is cutting rates, while BOJ ends its negative rate regime, hence narrowing yield between JPY & USD, make keeping the JPY in Japan more attractive, or at least less risky. Cherio...
Short
by moressay