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USDJPY Is a Major Sell-Off Coming? Key Levels to Watch!USDJPY has been on a tear these past few weeks, charging toward some key higher timeframe resistance areas. Checking out the Monthly chart, I’m spotting what looks like a major trend reversal pattern. In July, USDJPY hit 162, and the resulting sell-off did two big things: it broke the long-term trendline and took out the last swing low from the previous leg up. (see chart below) Also, on the Monthly chart, you’ll notice that when price broke up through the 152 resistance to reach 162, there was a notable lack of momentum compared to earlier moves in this trend. We’re also seeing clear bearish divergence on the MACD—all signs of a major topping pattern and a likely trend reversal. Zooming into the weekly chart, and drawing fib retracement levels from the July drop, we’re right at the 0.618 level, aligning with the outside of the previous trendline. On the daily chart, we’ve reached what I consider a key SELL zone between 154-155. This level saw a 1500-pip drop in just days at the start of August. With three key confluences now in play and the Monthly chart showing a strong trend reversal pattern with MACD divergence, we could say “the stars are aligning” for this one. My approach? I’ll wait for the price to break above 154 and head toward 155, then turn on my TRFX indicator to look for 4-hour sell signals. Even if the market pushes higher, I’ll be on the lookout for more selling opportunities, especially if we move closer to 160. With all these factors lining up and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision this week, we could see a significant USDJPY sell-off. But I’ll WAIT for the SELL SIGNAL to confirm. If this major reversal takes shape, the price could drop quickly to this year’s low at 139.500, with possible profit-taking here and buyer re-entry, before pushing lower in the long term towards 127 or beyond. Note: This is a long-term, higher timeframe perspective and not a short-term trade. Let me know your thoughts below!
Short
by TheFxAce
5
USDJPY Is Going Up! Long! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 151.777. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 153.232 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
3
USDJPY: Correction Phase Targets Key Resistance at 153.846 USDJPY is currently undergoing a corrective rise after yesterday's decline. While the downtrend is still in play, buyers are showing strength as the previous drop appears to be a trend correction, filling the price gap, just as anticipated in my previous forecast. From a longer-term perspective, USDJPY remains above the active levels of the EMA 34 and 89. The immediate target is set at the resistance level of 153.846, with potential for further gains if this resistance is broken, turning it into new support for USDJPY.
by Pierce_Bowers
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/29/2024USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/29/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
USD/JPY Targets Higher Ground as Triangle Pattern BreaksTechnical Analysis In the 1-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair shows bullish momentum as the dollar continues to strengthen against the yen. The breakout above the triangle pattern at 153.133 signals renewed buyer interest and increased upward pressure, pushing the pair towards its recent high of 153.370. A decisive break above this level would further open the path to higher targets, including 153.539, 153.754, and ultimately 153.991. This final resistance aligns closely with the apex of the former triangle pattern, making it a key target for bullish traders. Conversely, the bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price falls below the support level at 152.749. Key Events to Watch This week, the USD/JPY pair faces several significant economic events. In Japan, Tuesday's unemployment report indicated a decline in the unemployment rate, providing slight relief to the yen amid broader weakness following political uncertainties. Looking ahead, investor attention will shift to US economic indicators, particularly the Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings report set for release later today.
Long
by Errante
USDJPY Bearish Bias on October 29, 2024: Fundamental Analysis !USDJPY Bearish Bias on October 29, 2024: Fundamental Analysis and Key Market Drivers Overview: USDJPY Daily Analysis with Slight Bearish Bias on 29/10/2024 As of October 29, 2024, the USDJPY (U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen) currency pair leans toward a bearish bias, driven by a range of economic factors and shifting market sentiment. The Japanese Yen, often considered a safe-haven currency, appears set for gains as investor risk appetite remains cautious. In this analysis, we’ll break down the primary drivers of a bearish USDJPY outlook and explore what this could mean for traders today. Key Drivers for USDJPY Bearish Bias 1. Dovish Stance from the Federal Reserve - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent statements have indicated a more dovish tone, with Chair Jerome Powell suggesting a pause in rate hikes as the U.S. economy faces slower growth and moderating inflation. - As the Fed scales back aggressive tightening, demand for the USD could soften, giving way to downward pressure on USDJPY. 2. Economic Resilience in Japan - Japan’s latest economic indicators, including rising exports and steady growth in industrial output, are showing signs of resilience. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its accommodative policies, yet recent remarks hint at a more balanced approach, adding stability to the JPY. - With the Japanese economy performing well, the Yen is gaining support, especially against a potentially weaker USD. 3. Risk-Off Sentiment in Global Markets - USDJPY typically reacts to shifts in risk sentiment, as the Yen benefits from safe-haven flows. In today’s market, concerns over geopolitical risks and potential global economic slowdown are driving investors to seek safer assets. - This risk-off environment is reducing demand for USD-denominated assets while increasing interest in JPY, putting additional bearish pressure on USDJPY. 4. U.S. Dollar Weakness Amidst Lower Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back as the Fed pauses its rate hikes. Lower yields tend to weaken the appeal of the USD compared to safe-haven currencies like the Yen. - This yield differential further supports a bearish USDJPY outlook, as lower Treasury returns make the USD less attractive in the FX market. Technical Analysis of USDJPY On the technical front, USDJPY is approaching a support zone near 148.00, with resistance around the 149.80 level. If the bearish bias continues and the pair falls below this support, we could see USDJPY trend lower, making this an important level to watch. Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook on October 29, 2024 Today’s fundamental and market conditions suggest a bearish bias for USDJPY. A dovish Fed, Japan’s economic resilience, cautious market sentiment, and lower U.S. Treasury yields are all factors likely to favor the Yen over the Dollar. Traders should monitor key support levels and any shifts in risk sentiment, as these could impact USDJPY’s trend throughout the day. --- Tags: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, Japanese Yen outlook, Forex market trends, USDJPY bearish trend, Federal Reserve impact on USD, USDJPY technical levels, Forex trading insights, October 2024 USDJPY
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 29, 2024 USDJPYThe Dollar-Yen pair is losing ground to the 152.950 level during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair is declining as the U.S. dollar (USD) retreats from the nearly three-month high reached in the previous session. However, the pair's decline may be limited amid uncertainty surrounding the composition of the next government and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plan. The loss of Japan's ruling coalition in the elections increases political and monetary policy uncertainty and could put pressure on the Japanese yen (JPY). “The ruling LDP and its coalition partner lost their majority in the lower house of parliament, raising concerns about the shape and direction of the next government's policies. Markets have also slightly reduced expectations of Bank of Japan policy tightening (which has helped local equities),” said Scotiabank chief currency strategist Sean Osborne. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will take center stage on Thursday. Nearly 86% of economists polled by Reuters expect Japan's central bank to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting on Thursday. On Tuesday, Japan's Statistics Bureau released data that the country's unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September, down from the previous reading and the market consensus forecast of 2.5% Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 153.14 1st Support: 150.90 1st Resistance: 1554.97 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USDJPY InsightPlease feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito failed to secure a majority in the general election, making it unlikely for the BoJ's policy normalization. - U.S. Treasury’s recent 2-year and 5-year bond auctions saw weak demand. - On the 26th, Israel launched a retaliatory strike in response to Iran's ballistic missile attack, sparing nuclear and oil facilities. - The Federal Reserve has entered its blackout period. - Former President Trump’s rising support in the presidential race is increasing his election prospects. Major Economic Indicators - October 29: U.S. Department of Labor's September JOLTS report - October 30: U.S. Q3 GDP data - October 31: Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, Eurozone’s October CPI, and U.S. September PCE inflation - November 1: U.S. October unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls USDJPY Chart Analysis Due to recent yen depreciation factors and dollar appreciation, USDJPY has surged significantly. The pair is currently in a V-shaped rebound, forming above the 153 level. Having recently broken through the 152 resistance, the pair now has potential to rise toward the 158 area. Further gains in USDJPY are anticipated. If unexpected downward movement occurs, I will quickly adjust the strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy
The yen falls to a three-month low amid political uncertainty in Japan's ruling party has faced a devastating defeat in the general election, leading to a surge of political uncertainty that has driven the yen to its lowest in three months. If PM Ishiba resigns and is succeeded by the dovish Sanae Takaichi as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, concerns about the BoJ's plan to raise interest rates will intensify. This scenario will signal that Japan may be losing its political and policy-stable status, resulting in a long-term stalemate in the Japanese stock market. USDJPY sustains a solid uptrend within the ascending channel, finding support around 153.00. The gap between both EMAs widens, sending out a bullish signal. If USDJPY breaches the resistance at 154.00 and then crosses the ascending channel’s upper bound, the price may continue its uptrend toward 157.80. Conversely, if USDJPY breaks EMA21 and the channel's lower bound, the price could fall further to the support at 150.80, where EMA78 coincides.
by inkicho_exness
USD/JPY rally facing fundamental test with US job openings data USD/JPY remains a play on the US interest rate outlook, sitting with an incredibly strong correlation with US two-year Treasury note futures of -0.98 over the past fortnight. When short-dated US debt futures have moved in a particular direction, USD/JPY has almost always done the opposite, mirroring US Treasury yields. With there's no obvious reversal pattern in US two-year note futures in the right-hand chart, providing reason to be cautious about getting to aggressive, with the first of the week’s major US economic releases on the way in the form of JOLTs job openings for September, the risk of profit-taking in USD/JPY appears elevated. After a surprise bounce in August, markets are looking for only a minor decline in openings of 50,000 to 7.99 million. Notably, this survey tends to bounce around and we haven’t seen back-to-back increases since late 2022. That hints at the potential for a downside surprise that could spark downside for US Treasury yields and USD/JPY which have run very hard in recent weeks. If the price holds below 153.19, you could initiate shorts with a tight stop above for protection targeting a return to the 200DMA. Good luck! DS
Editors' picks
Short
by FOREXcom
4
UsdJpy Trade UpdateI sent out a short idea for UJ and stated why I was personally looking to go short on the pair. With price retesting the level I wanted to see it pullback to and the hourly starting to go bearish, I decided to execute my shorts here with stops just above structure. I'm looking for a 1:3rr on this set up. If UJ is gonna continue ranging then we may even expect price to crash back down to 151.5. It's pretty late for an entry but I feel comfortable with where my stop is. I have more than enough room.
Short
by OfficialJ23
JPY on track for its worst monthly performance in 8 years. USD/JPY closed higher at 153.29 (+0.65%), up 6.70% in October, putting the JPY on track for its worst monthly performance in 8 years (since November 2016). The slide in the JPY accelerated yesterday after the LDP/ Komeito ruling coalition lost its lower house majority for the first time since 2009. There are signs that Ishiba will be able to cobble together an LDP-led minority government, which would be the first occurrence of this since WW2. This month's sell-off in the JPY increases the chances that the BOJ may push back against recent JPY weakness at its meeting on Thursday. While USD/JPY holds above an important band of support at 152.00/150.00 further gains appear likely.
Long
by IG_com
USD/JPY schould the bears take their chance ? In recent weeks, we’ve seen a massive bullish movement. I believe many have been anticipating a bearish pullback or pivot. The market has now entered my daily supply zone, with indicators suggesting a potential bearish move ahead. Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, I don’t see a supply zone that meets my criteria when looking to the left. I’ll wait for the market to establish a current supply zone, which could present an entry opportunity soon. What I’m looking for now is a clear rejection favoring the bears to confirm a strong bearish move.
Short
by Glitchz_99
4