USDJPY The volatility we are seeing in the long-term bond market will spill over into the USDJPY ratio.
JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY – Ride the Rail Short IdeaPair is still gliding inside a clean 30-min downslope channel.
Price is now retesting the upper rail (≈ 143.00).
fade this retest while the trend-line holds.
Entry zone: 142.90 – 143.00
Target: 142.10 (bottom rail / prior pivot)
If the rail snaps, no trade; if it holds, I’m looking for the next slide to 142.1.
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added 6K longs nad just 300 shorts, I still see a price coming higher but, first liquidity is lower so it makes more sense to close shorts on lower prices and overall still the exposure seems more bearish.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY I Daily CLS Nested In Weekly CLS, Model 1Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
⚔️ Listen Carefully:
Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves.
If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Rise Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 142.31. a swing low support.
Our take profit is set at 142.71, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 141.65, below the 161.8% Fibo extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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USDJPY InsightWelcome, dear subscribers!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe.
Key Points
- U.S. President Trump announced a delay of the 50% tariff, which he had warned would take effect from June 1, until July 9.
- Nvidia’s earnings will be released after the market closes on the 28th, drawing attention as a potential catalyst for increased risk appetite.
- At the opening of the two-day conference themed “New Challenges in Monetary Policy” on the 27th, BOJ Governor Ueda stated that "Japan’s inflation is closer to the target than at any time in the past 30 years," and added, "As economic activity and prices improve, we will adjust the level of monetary easing as necessary to achieve the sustainable 2% inflation target, within the range that reinforces confidence in our baseline scenario based on incoming data."
Key Economic Events This Week
+ May 28: FOMC Meeting Minutes
+ May 29: U.S. Q1 GDP
+ May 30: U.S. April PCE Price Index
USDJPY Chart Analysis
While it initially seemed like a short-term uptrend was forming with 149 as the peak, the pair broke below the 144 level, failing to establish the uptrend. The breakdown below the support line suggests a possible decline toward the 140 level. After reaching the low, we will need to monitor the situation, but a rebound is expected at this point.
If the 140 level is breached, we will quickly develop a new strategy.
0527: Bearish USD/JPY: BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Hello traders,
In the futures market, I once again came across a more "interesting" piece of data. The COT position data showed that the speculative long positions in the Japanese yen soared to 167,330 contracts, reaching an extreme level not seen in recent years.
★ I would like to present another set of data:
✔ In April, the price of rice in Japan soared by 98.4% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly increase since 1971. This increase was even higher than the 92.1% in March.
✔ The Japanese government cancelled subsidies for gas and electricity in March, causing energy prices to rise by 9.3%.
✔ Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than 3.2% in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of core inflation above 3%.
✔ Meanwhile, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the first quarter of 2024.
✔ Within 45 days, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds soared by 100 basis points, reaching a record high of 3.20%. Over 500 billion US dollars of 40-year Japanese government bonds, regarded as "safe assets", have depreciated by more than 20% in the past 6 weeks.
Technically, weekly chart, UJ has make a bearish reversed bowl top and now this pair is targeting south running beneath WEEKLY EMAs.
The support zone that be test triple would become resistance zone very soon.
The weekly selling targets are marked out on this chart!
Based on the latest market trends and the policy signals from the Bank of Japan, there is a high probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its next meeting (expected to be in June 2025). It is now the time to buy the expectation and sell the reality.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
USDJPY BUYTargets @ 144.57 TP1 - 2.1bn @ 145 TP2 - Entries at Structure Breaks or 141 Area combined with Volume - FOMC provide Direction
Trump tariffs spark market jitters....again | FX ResearchAsian markets have shown mixed performance on this Monday. Treasury Secretary Bessant announced plans to relax the supplementary leverage ratio this summer, potentially lowering government borrowing costs by enabling banks to trade more treasuries, while dismissing concerns about rising US bond yields.
However, US fiscal challenges persist with deficits over 6% of GDP and a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio—historically stabilised only by high inflation or asset bubbles—raising doubts about sustainable debt reduction without fiscal reform. President Trump's recent moves, including a 50% tariff on European goods, a 25% levy on foreign smartphones, and the blocking of international students at Harvard, continue to fuel market uncertainty, amplified by US and UK market closures for public holidays.
Key US data this week includes the FOMC minutes, GDP estimates, and the core PCE price index.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down:
1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report)
The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY:
On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity.
For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure.
📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term.
2. Historical Seasonality
Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias:
In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns.
The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern.
📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer.
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short.
📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk.
4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart)
On the weekly chart:
Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81.
Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend.
RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside.
First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80.
Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00.
📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance.
5. Market Depth
Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50.
🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook
The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term:
Smart money is rotating toward the Yen.
Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June.
Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight.
The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
USDJPY Bearish Continuation Setup Trend Analysis
The market is in a clear downtrend, evidenced by the sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
The descending trendline has been respected multiple times, acting as dynamic resistance.
🧠 Key Technical Factors
Rejection Zone (Supply Area):
The marked “Rejection Point” aligns with the confluence of the trendline resistance, 50 EMA (red), and historical supply.
Price attempted to break above but faced a strong rejection—signaling institutional sell interest.
EMA Confluence:
50 EMA (142.993) and 200 EMA (144.063) are both sloping downward.
Price is trading below both EMAs, confirming bearish momentum and trend continuation bias.
BOS (Break of Structure):
Multiple BOS levels marked, showing a consistent pattern of structure breaks to the downside.
Each rally is met with selling pressure, failing to create new highs.
🧩 Projected Price Action
Current retracement could retest the trendline/50 EMA before a potential continuation move downward.
Expectation is a lower high formation near the descending trendline followed by a bearish impulse.
🏹 Bias: Bearish
Traders might consider short opportunities around the 142.90–143.00 zone, targeting 142.00 and below, with stops just above the trendline/supply zone.
⚠️ Risk Note
A clean break and close above the trendline and 50 EMA would invalidate this setup and could lead to a shift in structure.
USDJPY going of erlUJ tapped weekly bearish fvg and is no going for the weekly erl. This also aligns with dxy which also tapped the weekly fvg. Expecting a tap in the 4h fvg in the ny session before taking the sellside liquidity and the erl.
USDJPY Demand Zone Consolidation. Wait for BRT Above or BelowIf CMP crosses above top zone and closes on 1H chart, take the Buy Retest.
If CMP crosses below the bottom zone and closes on the 1H chart, take the Sell Retest.
Go for 1:1 risk to reward MINIMUM. This strategy is 7-8 out of 10 (70-80%) but can produce upwards of 90% accuracy. Be patient. Be disciplined. Be consistent. 30 pips SL // 30 pips TP
*This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, do not over leverage. Risk only what you are willing to lose.*
If you are actively monitoring your trade, you can remove your TP once price goes into profit and start a trailing stop! At 10 pips, move your SL into profit at 2-3 pips to break even. If price goes to 20 pips in profit, set your SL at 10 pips of profit. You are more than welcome to accept the full SL (risk) and let the trade play out. SET IT AND FORGET IT. Take partials at structural pivot points (aka swing highs and swing lows) if you hold the winning trade longer than original TP!
Happy trading!
#HiddenWealthSociety
#HWS
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential, 10-Year Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 26–30, 2025)
Current 10-Year Bond Yields
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of May 21–22, 2025) .
Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.56% (as of May 23, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential (IRD)
The yield spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds is:4.54%(US)−1.56%(JPY)=+2.98%
4.54% (US)−1.56% (JPY)=+2.98%
This significant differential favors the US dollar, making USD/JPY attractive for carry trades.
Carry Trade Advantage
Investors borrow low-yielding JPY (at ~0.5% BoJ policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding USD assets, earning the ~2.98% yield spread as profit.
The strategy is supported by the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance compared to the BoJ’s cautious approach, despite Japan’s rising inflation (core CPI at 3.5% in April 2025) .
Bank of Japan Policy Signals:
Rising inflation and revised Leading Economic Index (108.1 for March 2025) may pressure the BoJ to tighten policy, narrowing the yield differential.
Market expectations for BoJ rate hikes could strengthen JPY, reducing carry trade appeal.
USD/JPY has fallen below 143.00 amid JPY strength , but oversold conditions suggest potential short-term corrections.
US-China trade tensions and tariffs may introduce volatility, affecting risk sentiment.
Summary Table
Metric United States (USD) Japan (JPY)
10-Year Bond Yield 4.54% 1.56%
Interest Rate Differential +2.98% (USD over JPY) —
Carry Trade Appeal Favorable for long USD/JPY —
Conclusion
The ~2.98% yield differential strongly supports USD/JPY carry trades, but traders should monitor:
BoJ policy shifts: Potential rate hikes could narrow the spread and weaken USD/JPY.
Fed rhetoric and US data: Hawkish signals may sustain USD strength, while dovish surprises could reduce the yield advantage.
Technical levels: A break below 142.00 could signal further JPY strength, eroding carry trade profits.
While the carry trade remains attractive, volatility from policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks requires careful risk management during this period..
#GOLD #FOREX #USDJPY#DOLLAR #YEN
I see red nine I buytd sequential buy setup about to complete full count, with perfect nine at the end. Look forward for 1-4 candle bounce. Full one lot plus stop at 142.5
Usdjpy Usdjpy after hitting tp didn't seecentry till today will buy Usdjpy a counter trade be4 I sell Usdjpy but I will be waiting 4 a reversal candle stick after the trade reach the 4h support zone
USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144
🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces
In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen.
The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets.
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish
Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services.
Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target.
This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat.
🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal
Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked.
Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety.
📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1
On the H1 chart:
Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low.
EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum.
Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+
However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations
Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred):
Entry: 142.70 – 142.90
Stop-Loss: 142.30
Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60
Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy:
Entry: 144.15
Stop-Loss: 143.70
Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD.
BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉
🔹 Timeframe: 30M
🔹 Methodology: Elliott Wave + AO + Structure Break + BBMA
⸻
🔍 Current Market Outlook:
I’m currently observing Wave 4 playing out as a complex correction. Price is pushing toward the key level 142.796, which I expect to break structure (BOS) to the upside.
Once that level is cleared, I’ll be watching closely for signs of an ABC corrective move to form — setting up a high-probability sell opportunity aligned with the final Wave 5 leg.
⸻
🧠 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ Wave Count:
• Wave 3 is confirmed by the strongest momentum on the AO
• Wave 4 is unfolding and approaching structure at 142.796
• AO shows decreasing bullish momentum, hinting at possible exhaustion
✅ Plan:
• Wait for break above 142.796
• Monitor for completion of ABC correction
• Enter short after C-leg confirmation
• TP at 1.618–1.786 Fib extension zone (141.818–141.614)
• Anticipating bullish divergence on AO by the end of Wave 5
⸻
📌 Confluence Checklist:
✔️ Wave theory
✔️ BOS expected
✔️ Fibonacci targets
✔️ AO divergence setting up
✔️ BBMA structure alignment
⸻
🎯 Strategy Summary:
Break 142.796 ➝ Spot ABC ➝ Enter short on C ➝ Ride Wave 5 ➝ TP @ extension zone
⸻
💬 Share your thoughts—Are you seeing the same potential Wave 5 setup? Let’s discuss.
👉 Follow me for clean structure-based analysis, BBMA setups, and advanced wave insights.
#USDJPY #ElliottWave #ForexSetup #WaveAnalysis #BBMA #AOindicator #MarketStructure #BreakOfStructure #SmartMoney #SellTheRally #Wave5 #ForexStrategy
USDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.469.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 142.516 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
JPY/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish Reversal in Play🔎 Technical Breakdown:
1. Rising Wedge Formation:
The pair has been trading within a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price makes higher highs and higher lows but with diminishing momentum. The wedge is visible from the swing low on May 13, where price began to climb aggressively but within increasingly narrow price action. This narrowing range signals weakening bullish strength.
2. Key Resistance Zone:
The wedge forms right below a Major Resistance Zone marked earlier in the chart (around 0.007050), where price had previously faced heavy selling pressure. This adds confluence to the bearish bias, as the zone historically acted as a turning point.
3. SR Interchange Zone:
Below the wedge lies a Support-turned-Resistance (SR) Interchange level, a critical price area where past support may now act as resistance if the price attempts to retrace. This is a commonly watched level by institutional and technical traders.
4. Breakdown Confirmation:
The price has broken below the wedge's lower trendline, which is often considered the breakdown signal. A valid breakdown typically includes a close outside the wedge body followed by a retest or continuation.
5. Bearish Target:
The projected move is toward 0.006796, derived by measuring the wedge height and applying it from the breakdown point. This level aligns with a historical support zone, adding more confluence to the target.
🧠 Psychological & Structural View:
Bullish exhaustion: Buyers pushed price higher into resistance, but momentum slowed, signaling exhaustion.
Trapped longs: Traders who entered late in the wedge may now be trapped, potentially accelerating a sell-off as they exit.
Smart money behavior: Rising wedges near resistance often signal distribution by smart money before a drop.
🛠️ Trading Plan Suggestion (Not Financial Advice):
Entry: After a clear wedge breakdown, consider short entries on a retest of the broken trendline or a bearish candle confirmation.
SL: Above the wedge high or major resistance zone.
TP: Staggered exits below 0.006850 and final target around 0.006796.
🔁 What to Watch For:
Retest of the wedge breakdown (potential short entry zone)
Momentum confirmation via volume or bearish candles
Price reaction at SR Interchange and final support target
🧠 Minds Section – Condensed Summary
JPY/USD formed a Rising Wedge below major resistance, signaling bullish exhaustion. Price has broken down from the wedge, confirming bearish momentum. A clean breakdown targets 0.006796, with SR interchange acting as a minor support. A retest of the wedge breakdown could offer a good short opportunity.
USDJPY – Bearish Channel Holds, Eyes on Support BreakUSDJPY is currently trading within a clearly defined bearish channel on the 3H timeframe, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. After a slight bounce from the 142.50 support zone, the price is now heading toward the 143.30 resistance area — which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This is a zone likely to face rejection and renewed selling pressure.
On the news front, Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over prolonged budget deficits, putting pressure on the USD. Although the interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ still favors the dollar, current market sentiment is making it harder for USDJPY to maintain a strong rally.
If the 143.30 resistance holds, the price is likely to be pushed back down to retest the 141.07 support zone — a previous low and the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed break below this level would signal further downside, with the next target below the 140.00 mark.
USDJPY Short Setup – Bearish Reversal AnticipatedI'm currently looking for short opportunities on USDJPY. Price action is showing signs of exhaustion near key resistance levels, and I expect a potential reversal in the coming sessions. I'm watching for confirmation via bearish candlestick patterns and possible breakdowns from support zones.
Entry - 142.740
Target area: 142.240
Stop-loss: 142.940
