USDJPY MARKET IN H4 TIMEFRAME!!Price declined further today and broke Trendline . We might experience further drop to a low level of 139.959 as we anticipate fed interest rate tomorrow. A sell opportunity is envisaged.
JPYUSD trade ideas
Simple and clear as making tea, 4hr1. Market Structure & Patterns
• Bearish Structure:
The pair has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish trend. I follow structure first — it gives the most reliable roadmap before looking at patterns or indicators.
• Bearish Flags (Continuation Patterns):
These are rising channels within a downtrend, usually forming after a strong impulse drop. Think of them as “breathers” before price continues down.
Every flag here broke down, confirming that sellers are still in control after short pullbacks.
• Rejection Zones (Supply Areas):
Marked in pink, these zones are where price previously reversed sharply. Every time price returns to these levels, it shows hesitation or reversal, especially when followed by a bearish candle or wick rejection.
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2. Strong Levels & Liquidity Zones
• Liquidity Zones:
Areas like 140.450 are key because price reacted strongly there in the past — either as a turning point or a fakeout. These zones often hold pending orders, so I mark them as targets for potential bounces or breakouts.
• Confluence of Structure + Liquidity:
When a strong level (like previous demand) lines up with a structural level (like a lower low), it becomes a high-probability target.
• Dynamic Resistance (Trendlines/Channels):
The upper trendline of the flag acted as a form of resistance. Once price broke below it and retested the area, it confirmed a potential continuation.
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3. Fundamentals (Light Touch )
• USD Side:
Recent uncertainty around Fed rate cuts, inflation reports, and mixed labor data have caused the USD to fluctuate, but overall sentiment is leaning slightly dovish. This weakens the USD.
• JPY Side:
The Bank of Japan has started hinting at a possible shift away from ultra-loose policy, which could strengthen the Yen in the medium term.
• Macro Context:
If global risk sentiment turns negative (e.g., stocks fall or geopolitical tensions rise), safe-haven flows into JPY typically increase.
Together, these fundamentals support the technical bearish outlook on USDJPY in the short to mid term.
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Final Thoughts
This setup is built on:
• Clean structure
• Pattern recognition
• Key zone reactions
• Light macro context
Patience and confirmation are key — I wait for price to reject zones and form clear price action (like bearish engulfing or strong wicks) before executing.
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#USDJPY #ForexEducation #BearishSetup #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #TradingPatterns #FundamentalAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #LiquidityZones #PriceActionTrader
“UJ | Bullish Intent Locked — Patience Before Precision”“30M just broke structure to the upside — clear bullish intent after sweeping previous highs. Now I’m waiting patiently for price to take out liquidity/IDM to the downside. Once that clears, I’m striking on the 5M CHoCH for the entry. No rush — just precision.”
Bless Trading!
USD-JPY Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY has fallen down
Sharply and the pair is
Locally oversold so after
It hits the horizontal support
Of 141.800 a local bullish
Correction is to be expected
Buy!
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USDJPY shortSaw a beautiful high volume zone, also with a fibo level and ema 200 and 50 crossing. SR zone is also visible
USDJPY LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at both daily and weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 144.000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 5.63
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
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Analysis of the Latest SignalsRecently, the situation in Ukraine and Russia has remained tense, and the conflict in the Middle East has escalated (such as the confrontation between Israel and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen), prompting funds to flow to traditional safe - haven currencies. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained a dovish stance last week and did not clarify the interest - rate - hike path, which limited the upside potential of the yen.
Although inflation in Japan persists and wage growth is strong (the largest increase in 34 years), the BoJ's cautious attitude towards economic recovery has led the market to lower the interest - rate - hike expectations for June and July, putting pressure on the yen.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that line sup with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 141.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 143.78
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDJPY Retest of Supply Zone Before Bearish ContinuationUSDJPY pair is reacting to key supply around 143.70–144.00 but shows signs of weakness after failing to hold above this level. With renewed risk-off sentiment and escalating global trade tensions—especially involving Japan and the U.S.—this pair may be setting up for a bearish continuation. Here's what both the chart and macro backdrop suggest.
📊 Technical Breakdown (4H Chart)
Key Supply Zone Retested:
The pair retraced into a previously broken structure zone (blue box), rejecting the 143.70–144.00 area multiple times.
Price is now forming lower highs, indicating bearish pressure building beneath resistance.
Bearish Continuation Pattern:
Price action resembles a bear flag, with a minor pullback likely before continuation lower.
A retest of 143.00–143.50 could serve as an ideal sell zone.
Major Support Levels:
142.04–142.02: Immediate support, already tested.
140.16: Key structure low from late April.
138.04: Final measured move target based on Fibonacci extension and prior demand zone.
Bearish Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: 143.00–143.50
Stop: Above 145.35
TP1: 142.00
TP2: 140.15
TP3: 138.00
🌐 Macro Fundamentals
Trump Tariffs Stir Instability:
President Trump is pressing Japan in trade talks with threats of new tariffs, already impacting investor confidence
A 25% tariff on Japanese auto exports has gone into effect, disrupting trade negotiations.
Urgency for a Deal, But No Progress Yet:
Trump says multiple deals are “coming,” but little substance has emerged. Analysts fear economic fallout and potential global recession if tensions continue
JPY Strengthening on Safe-Haven Flows:
With U.S. economic indicators weakening and global uncertainty rising, the yen may benefit from risk aversion.
✅ Summary
USDJPY remains vulnerable to downside continuation from the 143–144 resistance zone. If price breaks below 142.00 again with conviction, expect momentum to build toward 140.15 and potentially 138.00.
USDJPY 6 May 2025Price break below uptrend channel and turned bearish
We may see retest the channel and kiss it before saying good bye.
Good luck.
Massive H&S on USDJPYOver the weekend the US dollar began to fall rapidly against the Taiwan Dollar (TWD). Yesterday and Today we are beginning to see a US dollar sell off against the Chinese Yuan as well. Then we have a massive bearish setup against the Japanese Yen, the 3rd most traded currency after the USD and Euro. The DXY is just below 100 and still holding, but individual currency pairs are telling a different story. Could this mark the beginning of the US dollar collapse?
USDJPY: Bearish Trend ContinuesUSDJPY: Bearish Trend Continues
USDJPY remains in a strong downtrend. Today, the Japanese yen showed strength, pushing USDJPY down by about 120 pips.
This move is likely due to market expectations ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting—investors don’t expect anything significant from Powell’s speech.
USDJPY could rise to the 143.60 zone before dropping again.
Key downside targets: 142.00, 140.00, and 138.00.
You may find more details in the chart!
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USDJPY Forecast: Haven Appetite Back in SightUSDJPY remains above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone at 139, stemming from the uptrend between January 2023 (127.20) and July 2024 (162.00).
However, the pair is currently trading below resistance at 146, steering the trend back toward key support levels at 142 and 139.
A decisive break below 139 could expose new 2025 lows near 138.30 and 134.60, both key Fibonacci levels.
On the upside, a rebound above 146 may open the way to 149 and 151, testing the grounds for a more sustainable uptrend.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USDJPY Technical Outlook: SMC and Wyckoff Analysis 5 May 2025As of May 5, 2025, the USDJPY pair is trading around ¥144.30, reflecting a 0.40% decrease from the previous session. This movement follows the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while revising growth forecasts downward, leading to a depreciation of the yen.
Technical Analysis:
Support and Resistance Levels: The pair is approaching a significant support zone near ¥143.00. A break below this level could expose the next support at ¥141.00, while resistance is observed around ¥148.00.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
Smart Money Concepts:
Order Blocks: A bullish order block is identified between ¥142.50 and ¥143.00, indicating potential institutional buying interest.
Liquidity Pools: Liquidity above the recent highs near ¥148.00 may attract price action if bullish momentum resumes.
Wyckoff Method Perspective:
Accumulation Phase: The recent price action suggests a possible accumulation phase, with the pair trading within a range between ¥140.00 and ¥146.00.
Spring Test: A false breakout below ¥143.00 could serve as a spring, leading to potentially high buying volume.
Fundamental Factors:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy: The BOJ's decision to keep rates unchanged, despite lowering growth forecasts, has contributed to yen weakness.
Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants are closely watching the ISM Services PMI later today and the upcoming FOMC meeting for signals on US monetary policy, which could impact USDJPY dynamics.
Conclusion:
The USDJPY pair is at a critical juncture, with technical indicators pointing to potential support near ¥143.00. Traders should monitor price action around this level for signs of accumulation or further downside. Fundamental developments, particularly central bank policies, will play a crucial role in determining the pair's direction in the near term.
USDJPY 05/06/2025Scenario USDJPY TF H4
- Stick to your stop loss to protect your trades
- Manage your positions patiently until you hit the target
- Profit always in risk, take the risk or lose the chance
its just workingfor record only.
IDm and bos.
USDJPY on the 1H chart shows bearish structure with multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmations. Price rejected from supply zones (OBs) and is heading lower after a recent CHoCH. Momentum favors sellers unless a bullish BOS forms above 144.300.
Yen Slips Toward 144 on Stronger DollarThe Japanese yen edged lower toward 144 per dollar on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid optimism over potential U.S.-China trade talks and investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. President Trump suggested a possible reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan held rates steady but revised its growth and inflation outlook. Trading activity remained subdued due to a public holiday in Japan.
Resistance is located at 145.90, followed by 146.75 and 149.80. On the downside, support levels are at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
Look Long on USDJPYMarket Need to Go Down But They Seems to getting Rejecting And Weak So I saw The opportunity To BUY Do RISK MANAGEMTNT AND TRADE MANAGEMT DYOR.
USDJPY Potential Bullish BatOn the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is currently fluctuating. We can currently pay attention to the potential bullish bat pattern and pay attention to buying around 142.43, which is in the previous demand area.
EUR/CAD Short, AUD/CAD Short, USD/CHF Long and USD/JPY ShortEUR/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
AUD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
USD/CHF Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of value.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
USD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
USDJPY, Bullish TrendFundamentally JPY is on bearish side
COT data shows highest long positions opened in JPY
dovish remarks by central bank positions JPY on bearish side
Expected stable rate of USD in coming FOMC rise bulls in USD
seasonality shoes USD bullish in MAY while JPY sideways
Current scenario of trump being lenient on tarrifs also bring momentum
in risk off scenarios i.e lower participant interest in JPY
On technical, USDJPY hit its strong weekly support level
Look for buy setups
68% fib retracement completed
Trendline support intact
currently sideways
buy in parts
buy 1. CMP at small risk
buy 2. upon closing above 144.296
Stoploss below 143.5
USDJPY: Pullback From Support 🇺🇸🇯🇵
There is a high chance that USDJPY will pull back from the underlined blue support.
AS a confirmation, I see a violation of a resistance line of a falling
wedge pattern on an hourly time frame.
Target - 144.35
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Fundamental Market Analysis for May 6, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) declined against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session, albeit without any follow-through selling. Despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ‘restrained’ guidance last Thursday, Japan's rising inflation and prospects for continued wage increases leave the door open for further policy tightening by the central bank. In addition, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policy and rising geopolitical tensions continue to act as tailwinds for the safe-haven yen.
Meanwhile, the prospect of more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is not helping the US Dollar (USD) attract meaningful buyers and is helping to limit the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders also seem unwilling to wait for more signals on the Fed's policy outlook before positioning for the next leg of directional movement. Thus, the main focus will be on the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting, which starts this Tuesday and which will give the dollar a fresh impetus.
Trading recommendation: BUY 143.90, SL 143.60, TP144.80
