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USDJPY Set to Rise as Support Holds and Dollar Finds TailwindsUSDJPY looks poised for further upside following a period of consolidation and a successful retest of strong support around the 140.50 level. The weekly chart reveals a clear triple bottom pattern, reinforcing the strength of this support zone and suggesting renewed bullish momentum. The US Dollar is starting to regain strength after a period of weakness, supported by improving U.S. economic data, sticky inflation, and a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In contrast, Japan is unlikely to change its ultra-loose monetary policy in the near term, keeping rate differentials wide and favoring a stronger Dollar. With the Bank of Japan expected to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future, capital is likely to continue flowing out of the yen. Carry trade flows remain intact, adding to the upward pressure on USDJPY. Momentum indicators are turning higher, and price action is forming a steady base for another leg up. The market could target the 150 zone in the coming weeks, where the 50-week moving average may act as initial resistance. As long as 140.50 holds, dips could offer attractive buying opportunities. A sustained move above 145.00 could trigger fresh bullish momentum and accelerate gains.
Long
by fwalbaum
Risk assets rally amid trade talk developmentsFollowing the agreement between the United States (US) and China to temporarily reduce tariffs, there has been a notable unwinding of safe-haven assets and an increase in demand across risk. Recent developments show the US is preparing to lower levies from 145% to 30%, while China is set to decrease tariffs from 125% to 10%. Safe-haven assets weighed Along with the Swiss franc (CHF) and Spot Gold versus the US dollar (XAU/USD), the Japanese yen (JPY) is on the back foot today. The USD/JPY currency pair is up 2.0% today and has rallied nearly 4.0% on the month, poised to snap a four-month losing streak. USD/JPY bulls to remain on the offensive, targeting ¥149.00? Technically, support remains clear on the monthly scale of USD/JPY at ¥140.31, a base that is complemented by the Relative Strength Index demonstrating signs of rebounding from the 50.00 threshold (and the lower boundary of a falling wedge taken from 86.72 and 56.82). Buyers certainly have room to stretch their legs on the monthly timeframe, with resistance calling for attention at ¥160.20. As long as the unit closes above the ¥148.28 high (9 April) on the daily chart today, this will not only provide support around ¥148.15 to work with but also unlock the door for further upside towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥149.68. This is closely shadowed by another layer of possible resistance between ¥150.99 and ¥150.16, as well as Fibonacci resistance at ¥152.05-¥151.61. If you drill down to the H1 chart, you will note another support that warrants attention at ¥147.43. Should daily price fail to close above ¥148.28, I will closely monitor H1 support from ¥147.43 as another potential floor, with an immediate upside objective at ¥149.00, followed by the 200-day SMA at ¥148.69, as mentioned above. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FPMarkets
USDCHF H4 I Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 144.30, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibo retracement. Our take profit is set at 142.61, an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 145.49, a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USD/JPY..4h Chart pattern..### **USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bearish Setup** #### **Key Observations:** 1. **Break of Structure:** - **H4 Chart:** Price broke below the **lower trendline of the ascending channel**, signaling a potential trend reversal. - **Alligator Indicator (Williams):** - **Lips crossed below Jaw** → Confirms bearish momentum. - **Chaikin Oscillator:** - **Fell below 0** → Indicates selling pressure and outflow. 2. **Daily Chart – Bearish Flag Pattern:** - A **bearish flag** (consolidation after a sharp decline) suggests continuation downward. - Confirms the **H4 breakdown**, increasing bearish probability. --- ### **Trade Plan: Sell USD/JPY** #### **Entry Zone:** - **Sell on consolidation below 143.300** (confirms bearish control). #### **Targets:** 1. **TP1: 142.000** (initial support level). 2. **TP2: 140.000** (next psychological & structural support). #### **Stop-Loss (SL):** - **Above 144.000** (above recent swing high for risk management). --- ### **Key Indicators to Monitor:** ✅ **MACD:** Bearish crossover & histogram below zero. ✅ **RSI (14):** Below 50 (confirms bearish momentum). ✅ **Price Action:** Rejection at 143.300 strengthens the sell signal. ### **Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):** - **Entry: 143.30** - **SL: 144.00 (70 pips risk)** - **TP1: 142.00 (130 pips reward) → ~1:1.85** - **TP2: 140.00 (330 pips reward) → ~1:4.7** --- ### **Final Verdict:** - **Strong bearish confirmation** on both H4 & D1. - **Sell below 143.30**, targeting **142.00 → 140.00**. - **Invalidation:** A break above **144.00** negates the bearish structure. Would you like a deeper analysis on Fibonacci retracement levels or order flow confirmation? 🚀
Short
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis: You might thinking why Im bearish here when we can see such high number of shorts in the COT. Here is where historical extremes comes in to play. Look how JPY Longs (USDJPY shorts) reached 10 years extreme and in the same time there is 10 years extreme net positions. Right in the time may when Dollar is seasonally strongest. ITs time to take profits from these USDJPY shorts it will take price up. Dollar Seasonal Tendencies Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing. Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday. Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Long
by David_Perk
10
USD/JPY – Selling into RalliesPrice has over‑extended into multi‑month supply at 148.00 just as 4‑h momentum diverges. A softer CPI print or fresh MoF jaw‑boning could trigger a quick flush back toward 146.20/145.00. Price has stretched >3‑σ above 20‑DMA and is stalling just under the 2014 trend‑line extension. 61.8 % Mar‑Apr retrace (146.85) already satisfied; momentum divergence on 4‑h RSI & Fed‑CPI risk favor mean‑reversion. Any softer US CPI print or verbal jawboning from Japanese authorities could accelerate a squeeze lower.
Short
by TerraBullMarkets
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May 2025) Current Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (US): 4.25%–4.50% (held steady on May 7, 2025). Bank of Japan (BoJ): 0.50% (unchanged since March 2025). Differential: ~3.75–4.00%, favoring the USD. This wide gap reflects the Fed’s cautious stance amid tariff-driven inflation risks and the BoJ’s reluctance to hike further due to trade-related growth concerns. Upcoming Economic Data and Events United States CPI Inflation (May 13–14): Core CPI YoY (Apr): Forecast 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). Headline CPI YoY (Apr): Forecast 2.4% (prev. 2.6%). Impact: Sticky inflation could delay Fed rate cuts, supporting USD strength. A downside surprise may revive rate-cut expectations, weakening the dollar. GDP Growth Revision (May 29): Q1 GDP growth prelim: -0.3% (QoQ annualized). Impact: A downward revision could pressure USD if stagflation fears grow. Fed Policy Signals: The Fed emphasized data dependency, with markets pricing no cuts until July 2025 Japan BoJ Policy Outlook (May 8): The BoJ lowered its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (vs. 1.0% in Jan) and core inflation to 2.2% (vs. 2.7% in Jan). Impact: Weak growth and inflation outlooks reduce BoJ’s scope for rate hikes, keeping JPY vulnerable. Trade Data (May 9): Exports YoY (Apr): Forecast 0.5% (prev. 12.4%). Imports YoY (Apr): Forecast -6.0% (prev. -4.3%). Impact: Weak exports (due to U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos) could further dampen growth, pressuring JPY. Geopolitical Risks: U.S.-China trade tensions and 25% U.S. tariffs on Japanese auto exports threaten Japan’s economy, reinforcing BoJ caution. Directional Bias for USD/JPY Short-term (May 2025): Bullish. The Fed’s delayed cuts and BoJ’s dovish tilt favor USD strength. USD/JPY is testing ¥162.50, with resistance near ¥165.00. Risks: Bearish JPY: BoJ’s growth/inflation downgrades, delayed hikes. Bullish JPY: Surprise BoJ hawkishness or U.S. recession fears. Conclusion: USD/JPY remains biased upward due to persistent interest rate differentials, BoJ dovishness, and Japan’s trade risks. However, weak U.S. GDP or a BoJ policy surprise could trigger corrections. Monitor U.S. CPI and BoJ guidance for near-term catalysts.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
USDJPY BREAKOUT BULLISH PATTERN Technical Pattern Analysis Current Trend: USD/JPY has shown a strong bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This indicates increasing buying pressure and positive momentum. Possible Bullish Patterns Observed: Ascending Triangle: This is a bullish continuation pattern often indicating that buyers are gaining strength before a breakout. Bullish Flag: A short-term consolidation that generally resolves in the direction of the previous trend (upward). Breakout Above Resistance: Recent candles show breakout attempts above key resistance zones, validating bullish sentiment. Key Support and Resistance Levels Immediate Support: 144.50–145.00 1st Resistance / Target Zone: 146.400 2nd Resistance / Target Zone: 147.900 Final Resistance / Target Zone: 150.200
Long
by Zickey_11
1
USDJPY → Price in range, retest of resistanceFX:USDJPY is emerging from local consolidation in hopes of seeing economic data that could support the dollar. The target for this movement could be the liquidity zone at 144.00. The currency pair is trading within a neutral range of 144.14 - 141.64. However, a local consolidation has formed within the range, from which the price has broken out. The main task for the bulls is to hold the defense above 142.75, in which case we will be able to catch the price distribution to the upper border of the global range of 144.14. News ahead, positive data may strengthen the dollar, which will accordingly affect USDJPY, but there is strong resistance at 144.14, whose liquidity pool may trigger a downward rebound. The trend is neutral. Resistance levels: 143.9, 144.14 Support levels: 142.75, 141.98 There are no reasons to exit the global range. Over the past two weeks, this will be the first retest of the 144.14 zone, which in general only increases the chances of a false breakout and correction. Best regards, R. Linda!
by RLinda
8
Long-term Analysis of USD/JPYIn this analysis, I used higher timeframes—specifically, the weekly timeframe to identify a box and a touch of the box's bottom on the daily and 4H charts. I also found other valuable details such as trendlines, order blocks, and FVGs. I hope the chart I shared helps you understand what I’ve marked. But let's put that aside for a moment. Today I wanted to talk about something different. For a while now, I’ve been in the process of immigrating to Germany. I haven’t had much time to trade lately, and all my capital has gone into this move. You might not believe this, but during the past two days, when we made about 10% profit in Forex (which I posted for you), I didn’t take any positions myself because I didn’t have the capital to trade. Still, I put a lot of effort and precision into the analysis—because I consider this capital as if it were my own. I truly didn’t want you to risk even a cent. I’ll continue sharing my analysis, but I have two small requests from you: Please always check and verify the analysis yourself before taking a position. You’re never obligated to follow or read/listen to my ideas. Lastly, if you happen to know any banks or platforms in Germany (or anywhere else) where I can trade or work and earn an income after moving, I’d be grateful if you could let me know. Just remember: the first request is mandatory—you must do your own analysis. Much love to you all. Have a great day (or night), and may you always be wealthy and successful.@soroushyyyy telgram
Long
by soroushshahabi639
USDJPY:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉 Technically: On May 10, the USD/JPY exchange rate was 145.3640, a decrease of 0.3250% compared to the opening price. 145.92 above is a key resistance level. If broken through, it is expected to challenge 146.36 and 148.20. 144.00 below is an important support level. If it is lost, the decline may accelerate. In terms of news: US President Trump announced the reaching of a trade agreement with the UK, which boosted the US dollar and weakened the Japanese yen. However, part of the trade-related positive news this week may have already been factored in. At the same time, the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate unchanged and sent a dovish signal. Pay attention to the subsequent trade agreement negotiations and the statements of the Federal Reserve. In terms of trading operations, one can try to open a short position with a small position near 145.92, with the target set at 144.00. Trading Strategy: sell@145.500-145.920 TP:144.500-144.000 The signals in the Signature have brought about continuous profits, and accurate signals are shared every day. Hurry up and click to get them! 👇 👇 👇 Obtain signals👉👉👉
Short
by PagAugustine
USDJPY with Price ActionPrice has broken above the key pivot zone around 145.00, which previously acted as resistance and may now flip into support. We’re currently seeing a minor pullback near the 145.60–146.00 zone after a strong bullish impulse. This red-circled area highlights hesitation, but as long as the price holds above the pivot, I’m maintaining a bullish bias. The market structure remains clean with higher highs and higher lows. The volume spiked during the move up and has decreased on the pullback—exactly what I want to see in a healthy retracement. I'm watching for a bullish reaction at or slightly above 145.00 to confirm continuation. If we get a strong bounce from the pivot zone, I’m targeting 147.00 as the first level and 148.50 as the extended target. However, if price breaks and closes below 145.00 with momentum, I’ll reassess—downside support could be around 143.50–144.00. Next steps: Waiting for a confirmation entry signal (bullish engulfing or strong rejection wick) near the pivot. Key risk to this setup is upcoming USD news and any BoJ commentary that could trigger volatility. Staying patient—will update if the pivot holds or fails.
Long
by xxChartWhizxx
Stay within the trend line and wait for FOMC🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news: ➡️ Last week, the Bank of Japan adopted a cautious tone by lowering its growth and inflation forecasts, leading investors to scale back their expectations for another rate hike in June or July. However, the central bank reaffirmed its commitment to further interest rate increases if economic and price trends align with its projections. ➡️ Meanwhile, the unpredictable trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump has overshadowed optimism stemming from eased U.S.-China trade worries, unsettling investors. In fact, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced films on Sunday. Additionally, geopolitical risks have bolstered demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. Personal opinion: ➡️ USD/JPY will remain within the trend line and will wait for the upcoming FOMC. ➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support levels and trend lines combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy Personal Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/JPY 142.40 - 142.30 ❌SL: 142.85 | ✅TP: 143.00 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind