USDJPY – Uptrend Still Intact, But Waiting for a BounceUSDJPY is currently pulling back toward the key support zone at 142.244 after being rejected from the 148.000 resistance area. This recent drop reflects strong selling pressure from the dense FVG zones near Resistance 2.
However, the overall structure remains bullish, with a series of higher highs and higher lows still intact. The current support zone is crucial—if it holds, USDJPY could rebound toward 145.800 and potentially retest the 148.000 level.
On the news front:
– A fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel has improved global risk sentiment, reducing demand for USD as a safe haven.
– The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and signaled caution in reducing bond purchases—supporting the yen, but not enough to reverse the dollar's edge.
– The wide interest rate differential still favors the USD.
Strategy: Watch for bullish confirmation at 142.244. If buyers step in clearly, it may present a long opportunity in line with the dominant uptrend.
JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY Ascending channel breakout buy strong from demand zone📈 USDJPY Bullish Breakout Alert! 🚀
USDJPY has officially broken out of the descending channel from the 143.800 demand zone — showing strong bullish momentum on the 1H time frame! 🔥
🎯 Technical Targets:
1st Target: 145.000 – Supply Zone 💥
2nd Target: 146.000 – Key Resistance
3rd Target: 148.000 – Major Resistance Level
Momentum is building — bulls are in control! 🐂
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USD/JPY pair struggles due to a weaker US DollarOn the JPY side, nothing has changed fundamentally, and the currency has been mainly driven by the risk sentiment. As a reminder, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and reduced the bond tapering plan for fiscal year 2026 as expected at the last meeting. The BoJ continues to place a great deal on the US-Japan trade deal and the evolution of inflation.
USD/JPY is moving lower despite the disappointing Industrial Production report from Japan. The report showed that Industrial Production increased by +0.5% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +3.5%. However, I think that if we respect this area, we might see upward momentum coming soon.
Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.57, up 0.16% on the day.
Tokyo Core CPI surprised on the downside in June, falling to 3.1% y/y. This was down sharply from the 3.6% gain in May and below the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the the first slowdown in Tokyo core inflation since February. The decline was largely driven by a renewal of fuel subsidies and a reduction in water charges.
Despite the drop, core inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, maintaining expectations for another rate hike in the second half of the year. BoJ Governor Ueda has signaled that the Bank will raise rates if it is confident that wage growth is sustained, which is critical to maintaining inflation at the 2% target. However, this week's BOJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members are more dovish, given global trade tensions and the bumpy US-Japan trade talks. Japan has said it will not agree to US tariffs of 25% on Japanese cars, and six rounds of talks in the past two months have failed to produce a deal.
The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, accelerated in May and was higher than expected. The index rose 2.7% y/y up from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May and above the consensus of 2.6%. Monthly, the index rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% which was also the consensus. This was a three-month high and will boost the case for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the July meeting.
USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.49 and 144.64
144.31 and 144.16 are the next support levels
Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.14, down 0.55% on the day. Earlier, USD/JPY fell as low as 143.75, its lowest level since June 13.
Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released early Thursday. Tokyo Core CPI hit 3.6% in May, its highest level in over two years. The market estimate for June stands at 3.3%.
The Bank of Japan has signaled that more rate hikes are on the way, provided that inflation continues to move towards the BoJ's level of a sustainable 2%. However, trade talks between the US and Japan have hit a snag, with Japan saying it can't accept US tariffs of 25% on automobiles. The clock is ticking, as US reciprocal tariffs will take effect on July 9 without a deal.
The markets are eyeing a possible rate hike in July, which would be the first rate hike since January. The BoJ meets next on July 31, and if the two sides can reach a trade deal before then, it could cement a rate hike at that meeting. Even if the BoJ maintains rates at the upcoming meeting, investors will be keen to see the new inflation and growth forecasts.
The BOJ's summary of opinions from the June meeting, released Wednesday, didn't provide much insight into the BoJ's rate path. Board members were divided over whether to raise rates in a period of economic uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy.
There is support at 144.59 and 143.93
145.27 and 145.93 are the next resistance lines
LONG - USD/JPYCurrently in the 4H timeframe I can see that the price itself has given me a shift of momentum and this indicates that there could a chance for a possible bullish movement.
Now I have marked my zones base on fibonacci levels and gotten my zones to participate in the market.
Base on the market structure we can see that the price has now shifted its direction coming from a bearish momentum and now is pushing into a bullish momentum. This is where we can try to look for an opportunity to buy within those zones.
Why I am looking for a buy is because the price has already touched our support zone and respected the zone itself. Combining it together with Market Structure there seems to be a much more clearer view of how the market is moving.
Entry Point - 144.341
Stop Loss - 142.387
Take Profit - 148.585
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Thief SL at recent/swing low (4H/Day trade basis).
Adjust based on your risk, lot size, and multiple orders.
🎯 Target (Profit Escape):
148.700 (or flee earlier if bears ambush!)
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Forecast USDJPY Contrary to popular belief, USD/JPY is structurally in a long-term bearish trend since 1971 on a logarithmic scale. What appears to be a recovery is in fact a technical retracement within a broader secular downtrend.
A historic hidden bearish divergence is forming: the RSI has been gradually rising, while the price continues to print lower highs over the decades. This reflects a momentum squeeze within the bearish structure.
We may be standing at the edge of a major rejection zone, where the long-term downtrend could reassert itself forcefully. The market is quietly preparing for a powerful bearish continuation.
The trend is more important than the exact high to shortCatching the precise high to short is a tough game. I prefer to leave this to the expert. In the day chart, we have a nice bearish candle and here in the 1H chart, you can see my short position is more than halfway from the exact fall (coz I really can't predict the market movement).
So, I have two targets for those keen to short, the 2nd one upon breaking down from the bullish trend line.
Again, I stressed the volatility of this pair so if you cannot stomach it, it is better to go for my EURUSD pair. See next chart.
Market next target ⚠️ Disruption & Counterpoints:
1. Premature Breakout Bias:
The chart shows price repeatedly rejecting the resistance zone (highlighted in red).
The arrow assumes a clean breakout without confirmation — this is speculative, as the price hasn’t closed convincingly above the resistance.
This could easily turn into a false breakout or double top if price fails again.
2. Volume Mismatch:
A breakout should be backed by strong bullish volume. However, the current volume is mixed and not showing a clear surge in buyer strength.
Lack of volume confirmation makes the breakout less reliable.
3. Ignoring Recent Rejections:
The red zone was tested multiple times in the last sessions without success. That typically signals strong supply or institutional selling.
Repeating this setup without accounting for historical failure adds downside risk.
4. Missing Bearish Scenario:
No alternate path is considered. A failed breakout could lead to a pullback toward 144.00 or lower, especially with U.S. news events (indicated by the flag).
A balanced analysis should always prepare for both breakout and rejection.
5. Macroeconomic Event Risk:
Similar to the GBP/USD chart, this one also shows an upcoming U.S. economic event. That could heavily move USD/JPY, and technical setups may become invalid fast.
The analysis ignores the need to wait for the news catalyst or confirmation after the release.
Falling towards pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.11
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 143.85
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 147.58
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 145.00
1st Support: 142.59
1st Resistance: 148.57
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Heading into pullback resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension and also slightly below the 100% Fibonacci projection and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 146.77
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension and also slightly below the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 148.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 145.31
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDJPY Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.018.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.793 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDJPY | Massive Head & Shoulders Top – 2500+ Pips | Weekly📍 Pair: FX:USDJPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen)
📆 Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
📉 Price: 144.22
📊 Pattern: Head & Shoulders (macro top)
🔍 Technical Setup:
USDJPY has formed a textbook Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential multi-thousand pip reversal if the neckline fails.
🟩 Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder structure is clear
🔻 Neckline sits near 137.00 – a major support zone
🔺 Pattern took over a year to form — signals significant macro exhaustion
🧠 Trade Plan & Targets:
❗️ Trigger: Weekly close below 137.00 (neckline breakdown)
⛔️ Invalidation: Close back above 151.00 (right shoulder high)
🎯 Target 1: 126.90
→ 📉 Move: -1,832 pips
🎯 Target 2: 118.80
→ 📉 Move: -2,547 pips
🔭 Both targets are based on measured move logic from the height of the head to the neckline, projected downward.
⚠️ Key Observations:
Sideways price action forming the right shoulder = distribution zone
Breakdown would shift trend from bullish to bearish on a long-term scale
Potential for carry trade unwind and safe-haven yen demand if macro tensions rise
💬 Are we on the verge of a major USD reversal vs the yen?
📌 Watch for a confirmed weekly break below 137.00 — this setup could define Q3–Q4.
#USDJPY #Forex #HeadAndShoulders #JPYStrength #TrendReversal #TechnicalSetup #TargetTraders