Long Break and Retest TradeUSDJPY Buy from a pullback after creating a Higher High seems like it most likely continue to be bullish.
JPYUSD trade ideas
UPDATE ON USD/JPY TRADEUSD/JPY 1H - I did not get chance to update you all on USD/JPY yesterday but you were all aware of my thoughts and how we wanted to see this market trade us higher whilst price is putting in the correction.
Price did exactly that, last night at about 8pm price came to trade down and into an area of interest for me before reversing and taking us higher creating new highs in the market, with me not being at my computer I couldn't update you all officially on this change in price.
In order to avoid missing an entry this time round I have gone ahead and marked out a new area of Demand for you all that you can look to buy in from, please wait for price to trade into the area and reject well before placing any positions in the market.
It is important that we wait for confirmation that price is ready to take the next leg higher before getting involved in further buy positions. Once we see price trade down we are looking to see price reverse continuing this bullish momentum.
USDJPYRSI indicates Bearish Divergence. Which means that at any time the market trend can change to LL and LH.
Trendline Break: The price is approaching a key trendline, and a break below this trendline would indicate a shift from the current uptrend to a downtrend. This break would act as confirmation for entering a short position.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Use a sell stop order to enter the short position once the price breaks below the key trendline. This ensures that you only enter the trade if the bearish trend is confirmed.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order above the recent swing high or just above the broken trendline to limit potential losses. Adjust the stop-loss level according to your risk tolerance.
USDJPY Analysis for the Week of 24th September 2024: 150.000 !!The USDJPY pair has been a subject of interest in the forex market as it approaches a critical psychological level of 150.000. Traders are speculating whether the pair could reach this target given the current fundamental and technical landscape. In this article, we will analyze the potential for a slightly bullish bias for USDJPY this week, supported by key market drivers and macroeconomic factors.
Fundamental Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias:
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance on Monetary Policy:
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in recent weeks, reinforced by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, suggests that further interest rate hikes are on the table. This has led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, including the Japanese yen. With inflationary pressures still evident in the U.S. economy, the market is pricing in another rate hike before the end of the year. Higher interest rates increase the yield on U.S. assets, making them more attractive to global investors, which directly supports the USDJPY.
2. Bank of Japan's Ultra-loose Monetary Policy:
In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy stance, keeping its interest rates in negative territory. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated that the bank will remain accommodative until inflation sustainably reaches its 2% target, which still seems distant. This divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies is a major driver of the USDJPY bullish momentum, and it is expected to continue fueling the pair’s rise toward the 150.000 level.
3. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields:
U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily, with the 10-year yield nearing the 4.5% mark, its highest level in years. This surge is indicative of market expectations for prolonged high interest rates in the U.S., which adds further upward pressure on the dollar. Historically, higher U.S. Treasury yields have a direct correlation with USDJPY strength as global investors seek higher returns on their investments.
4. Geopolitical Uncertainty:
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are contributing to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, adding to its bullish momentum. While the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, the growing demand for the dollar due to the U.S. economy’s relative strength and higher yields is tipping the balance in favor of USDJPY bulls.
5. Japanese Intervention Risks:
As the USDJPY approaches the 150.000 level, market participants are wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities to stem yen depreciation. However, recent remarks from Japanese officials suggest that intervention is not imminent unless volatility becomes disorderly. Until intervention threats materialize, the path of least resistance for USDJPY appears to be upward.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical front, USDJPY has been trading in a well-defined uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows forming on the daily chart. The pair is currently testing resistance near the 149.50-149.80 zone, with 150.000 acting as the next psychological target. A sustained break above 150.000 could pave the way for further gains, with potential resistance around 151.50 and 152.00.
Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are approaching overbought territory, suggesting that while the bullish trend is strong, there may be some short-term consolidation before a decisive move beyond 150.000. Nonetheless, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with strong support seen around 148.50.
Conclusion:
Given the current fundamental and technical landscape, USDJPY is poised to maintain a slightly bullish bias this week. The combination of a hawkish Federal Reserve, a dovish Bank of Japan, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical uncertainty supports further upside for the pair. While intervention risks may temper gains, a move toward and possibly beyond the 150.000 level seems achievable in the near term.
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USD/JPY continue with the UptrendOn USD/JPY, it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 142.3 .
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
USDJPY BUYS: Will We See 150.000?USDJPY Analysis for the Week of 24th September 2024: Will We See 150.000?
Introduction:
The USDJPY pair has been a subject of interest in the forex market as it approaches a critical psychological level of 150.000. Traders are speculating whether the pair could reach this target given the current fundamental and technical landscape. In this article, we will analyze the potential for a slightly bullish bias for USDJPY this week, supported by key market drivers and macroeconomic factors.
Fundamental Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias:
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance on Monetary Policy:
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in recent weeks, reinforced by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, suggests that further interest rate hikes are on the table. This has led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, including the Japanese yen. With inflationary pressures still evident in the U.S. economy, the market is pricing in another rate hike before the end of the year. Higher interest rates increase the yield on U.S. assets, making them more attractive to global investors, which directly supports the USDJPY.
2. Bank of Japan's Ultra-loose Monetary Policy:
In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy stance, keeping its interest rates in negative territory. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated that the bank will remain accommodative until inflation sustainably reaches its 2% target, which still seems distant. This divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies is a major driver of the USDJPY bullish momentum, and it is expected to continue fueling the pair’s rise toward the 150.000 level.
3. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields:
U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily, with the 10-year yield nearing the 4.5% mark, its highest level in years. This surge is indicative of market expectations for prolonged high interest rates in the U.S., which adds further upward pressure on the dollar. Historically, higher U.S. Treasury yields have a direct correlation with USDJPY strength as global investors seek higher returns on their investments.
4. Geopolitical Uncertainty:
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are contributing to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, adding to its bullish momentum. While the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, the growing demand for the dollar due to the U.S. economy’s relative strength and higher yields is tipping the balance in favor of USDJPY bulls.
5. Japanese Intervention Risks:
As the USDJPY approaches the 150.000 level, market participants are wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities to stem yen depreciation. However, recent remarks from Japanese officials suggest that intervention is not imminent unless volatility becomes disorderly. Until intervention threats materialize, the path of least resistance for USDJPY appears to be upward.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical front, USDJPY has been trading in a well-defined uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows forming on the daily chart. The pair is currently testing resistance near the 149.50-149.80 zone, with 150.000 acting as the next psychological target. A sustained break above 150.000 could pave the way for further gains, with potential resistance around 151.50 and 152.00.
Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are approaching overbought territory, suggesting that while the bullish trend is strong, there may be some short-term consolidation before a decisive move beyond 150.000. Nonetheless, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with strong support seen around 148.50.
Conclusion:
Given the current fundamental and technical landscape, USDJPY is poised to maintain a slightly bullish bias this week. The combination of a hawkish Federal Reserve, a dovish Bank of Japan, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical uncertainty supports further upside for the pair. While intervention risks may temper gains, a move toward and possibly beyond the 150.000 level seems achievable in the near term.
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USD/JPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the USD/JPY with the target of 141.931 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Reading The Tape on USDJPY (ICT) - 24th Sept 2024 In this video I practice reading the tape using ICT Concepts, as well as offering general advice to those using his concepts or otherwise.
I hope that you find this video insightful. If you have any questions, leave a comment and I will be glad to answer.
- R2F
UsdJpy moving down on retracement.Looking for Impulse Down.
UsdJpy break out TL and will start to move down soon on retracement. Make sure you have your own rules on RR and follow them. This is just a trading idea to help you gain better knowledge. If you have any question ask me in comments.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
Buy USDJPY Bullish ChannelThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 143.77, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 145.38
2nd Support – 146.08
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 143.00. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
USDJPY H1 | Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 143.73, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 142.44, a pullback support level close to 50% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 144.75, which is a pullback resistance level.
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Demand area holding priceMy POV
-Price can't move more deeper, Demand area hold price
-Divergence in h4
-Neckline in D1 and weekly, maybe retracement to make HnS or QM (if price can move more higher tak right shoulder HnS)
USD/JPY Short Setup - 1:4.8 RRI have entered a short on USD/JPY after price broke below a key ascending trendline on the 1H chart. Entered at 143.658 with a Stop Loss set at 144.520 (-89 pips risk).
Target Levels:
TP1: 142.189 (+148 pips) - Moving SL to break even once this is hit.
TP2: 141.319 (+235 pips)
TP3: 139.579 (+407 pips)
This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, with multiple profit targets for a gradual exit.
Falling towards 38.2% Fibonacci support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.40
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 141.04
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 144.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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3-sigma short signal
We expect this to rug on the fundamentals, but FOMC had opposite effect
The 3-sigma Bollinger will light any wick that enters it
Let the wick burn and wait for a close outside the 2.5-3 sigma channel to trigger the trade, and watch it explode to the downside
Risk the highest wick in the channel
Target 3x
BoJ is watching you do this
USDJPY 4H Short Selling Trading planUSDJPY 4H Short Selling Trading plan
Volume +Supply and Demand+Pinbar Bearish=Short selling
Directly enter the short market near the current price of 143.469, with the stop loss level set at 144.400.
The first target is around 141.820, halving the warehouse and promoting protection.
The second target is around 140.200, with all short positions tied and profit taking to exit.
Lower the price to a new low and find opportunities to go long.
USDJPY SHORT - FOLLOWING THE DOWNWARD CHANNEL the pair meet the top of the channel and on a Friday (trap move) Monday, Tuesday will be a SELL
usd /jpy up trend i tkink if is not braking down the 141 if it will rebounce
my opinion is that wi go to 149 in 30 days or maximum 3 months
possible trades on ujas we see we are at the top of a bearish trend and there is also a baby bullish trend so if the big trend breaks we buy and if the little one breaks we sell
Usdjpy longThere is a very sensitive support level where it was triggered..allowing the bulls to move even more to the upside...
USDJPY 9/23/24💹
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: Price have been breaking bullish and surfing above the emas. Price had just came off the 50ema and I would like to see price come back to the 10/20 emas on the 6m time frame for a valid pullback before looking for longs.
Daly Bias: Bullish
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
