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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USD/JPY at a Crossroads: Bearish Pressure or Reversal Ahead?Economic Factors Influencing USD/JPY: Monetary Policy Divergence: The Federal Reserve has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues its accommodative policies. In December 2024, the BOJ kept interest rates steady at 0.25%, despite internal discussions about potential hikes. REUTERS This policy divergence often leads to a stronger USD against the JPY. Inflation and Economic Data: Japan has recently achieved its 2% inflation target, ending a prolonged deflationary period. However, the yen has weakened significantly, reaching a 37.5-year low of 161 JPY/USD in July 2024. WIKIPEDIA This devaluation impacts trade balances and investor sentiment. Global Risk Sentiment: The yen traditionally serves as a safe-haven currency. Shifts in global risk appetite, influenced by geopolitical events or economic uncertainties, can lead to yen appreciation during risk-off periods. Technical Analysis: The USD/JPY pair has been on a downward trajectory, forming lower lows. Analysts suggest that if the price rises above 150.89, it could signal a trend reversal to the upside. Conversely, a decline below 141.68 may indicate further bearish momentum. CFI TRADING Investment Considerations: Interest Rate Expectations: Monitor announcements from both the Federal Reserve and the BOJ. Changes in interest rate policies can significantly impact the USD/JPY exchange rate. Economic Indicators: Keep an eye on GDP growth, employment figures, and inflation data from both economies, as these metrics provide insights into economic health and potential currency movements. Risk Management: Given the yen's role as a safe-haven asset, global economic or political turmoil can lead to rapid currency fluctuations. Implementing appropriate risk management strategies is essential when trading this pair. In summary, the USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by a complex interplay of monetary policies, economic indicators, and global risk sentiment. Staying informed about these factors and conducting thorough technical analysis can aid in making informed trading decisions.
by DhandaTheGreat
#USDJPY 4HUSDJPY (4H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is currently respecting a trendline support, indicating that buyers are maintaining control. Additionally, the presence of a buy engulfing area suggests strong bullish momentum, signaling a potential continuation of the uptrend. Forecast: A buy opportunity may arise if the price continues to hold above the trendline support, confirming bullish pressure. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered near the trendline support after confirmation of bullish price action. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed below the trendline support to manage risk. - Take Profit: Target key resistance levels based on previous price action. Market Sentiment: The combination of trendline support and a buy engulfing area indicates strong buying interest. A confirmed bullish move from this level can provide better validation for a buy setup.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
5
USDJPY - Longterm viewHere is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels . Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . USDJPY is currently trading at around 149.000s . We are still extremely bearish on FX:USDJPY since our last longterm analysis was completed: Scenario 1: SELLS from 148.200 -We broke below the downtrend channel. With the break of the downtrend channel we can expect more sells to come and we should continue the bearish trend on USDJPY slowly digging into lower levels potentially reaching our target of 145.000. Scenario 2: SELLS from 151.250 -We above the downtrend channel - 149.900. If we above our downtrend channel we can expect some short-term buys up to our main Key Level or PBA (Pullback Area) from where we can look to enter into the long-term sells. IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 151.250; possible pullback area - 148.200; breaks below confirming lower levels - 145.000; longterm target (prices from Aug-Sep 2024) Personal opinion: We are currently trading in a downtrend channel and we are expecting more sells to come throughout the next weeks. We do have to be careful as TVC:DXY and TVC:JXY might experience some volatility tomorrow due to the following news: JXY: Tokyo Core CPI y/y DXY: Core PCE Price Index m/m KEY NOTES - USDJPY breaking above 149.900 would result in higher pullbacks. - USDJPY breaking below 148.200 (below the downtrend channel) would confirm sells. - USDJPY is overall extremely bearish. Happy trading! FxPocket
Short
by FxPocket
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 27, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is declining against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday, although it remains near the highest level since October 2024 reached earlier this week. Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda last week about a potential increase in regular bond purchases led to a further decline in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. In addition, concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and a positive tone on risks proved to be key factors undermining the yen exchange rate. However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year amid rising inflation in Japan. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates. What's more, previously released U.S. consumer inflation data suggests that the Fed doesn't have much room to cut rates this year. This, in turn, pushed US Treasury bond yields up, widening the yield differential between the US and Japan and limiting the upside potential for the low-yielding Yen. Trading recommendation: BUY 149.200, SL 148.800, TP 150.000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY M30 I Bullish Bounce OffBased on the M30 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 149.12, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 149.80, a swing high resistance. The stop loss is placed at 148.56, a swing low support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
USD/JPY Grasping By a ThreadI think the operative question to ask right now is who wants to get bullish on USD/JPY? With expectations for the Fed to cut rates later this year and Japanese inflation remaining high, to the point that the Bank of Japan may need to hike rates again, the fundamental backdrop seems ill-suited to the long side of the pair. Nonetheless, USD/JPY has held on quite well as it's currently grasping at the four-month-low from the support established in December. If the U.S. Core PCE report on Friday comes in below expectation and that data point finally gets below a 2.8% figure, there could be motive on the short side of USD/JPY as US rate cut bets would come further into view. Japanese CPI printed at 4% last week (for January) and that's well above the 3.6% print for December and the 2.9% data point for November. September and October were important for USD/JPY as that's when the carry unwind scenario from last year started to settle, but that was helped along by CPI prints at 2.5% and 2.3%. With inflation heading back up in Japan, there could be a growing argument for Yen-strength and if we see U.S. inflation finally starting to come down, especially if its from the 'Fed's preferred inflation gauge,' there could be motive for sellers to finally leave support behind in USD/JPY. - js
by FOREXcom