JPYUSD trade ideas
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 144.35
1st Support: 143.09
1st Resistance: 145.29
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back to daily support USDJPY touched 148 this morning ahead of US PMI.
According to methodology
1. Resistance Zone:
• The 0.125 level (147.820) acted as a resistance point where selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure, causing the price to reverse downward. Since the price reached 148.000 (just above 147.820), it tested and failed to sustain above this level, reinforcing its role as a barrier.
2. Daily Support
•The daily support trend line (yellow box) has been an area to watch as price continues to try and get over the 148 hump. Until then, this pair is going to wedge until a break confirmation.
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacted off the support level which is an overlap support and could drop from this level to our tak eprofit.
Entry: 144.96
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 146.11
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 142.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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USDJPY | Massive Head & Shoulders Top – 2500+ Pips | Weekly📍 Pair: FX:USDJPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen)
📆 Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
📉 Price: 144.22
📊 Pattern: Head & Shoulders (macro top)
🔍 Technical Setup:
USDJPY has formed a textbook Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential multi-thousand pip reversal if the neckline fails.
🟩 Left Shoulder – Head – Right Shoulder structure is clear
🔻 Neckline sits near 137.00 – a major support zone
🔺 Pattern took over a year to form — signals significant macro exhaustion
🧠 Trade Plan & Targets:
❗️ Trigger: Weekly close below 137.00 (neckline breakdown)
⛔️ Invalidation: Close back above 151.00 (right shoulder high)
🎯 Target 1: 126.90
→ 📉 Move: -1,832 pips
🎯 Target 2: 118.80
→ 📉 Move: -2,547 pips
🔭 Both targets are based on measured move logic from the height of the head to the neckline, projected downward.
⚠️ Key Observations:
Sideways price action forming the right shoulder = distribution zone
Breakdown would shift trend from bullish to bearish on a long-term scale
Potential for carry trade unwind and safe-haven yen demand if macro tensions rise
💬 Are we on the verge of a major USD reversal vs the yen?
📌 Watch for a confirmed weekly break below 137.00 — this setup could define Q3–Q4.
#USDJPY #Forex #HeadAndShoulders #JPYStrength #TrendReversal #TechnicalSetup #TargetTraders
USD/JPY at a key support level tested multiple times🔻 USDJPY Sitting at Critical Support – Decision Point Ahead
USDJPY is currently hovering around the 143.60–143.65 zone — a major support level that has held multiple times in the past.
🔍 Price just completed a clean Head & Shoulders breakdown, and this zone marks the neckline retest area. We're now at a make-or-break point:
Break Below 143.60: Confirms bearish continuation, opens downside toward 143.00 → 142.20
Hold Above 143.60: Could lead to a short squeeze back to 144.20–144.50 zone
📊 Volume is rising as we test this key level — suggesting that big players are stepping in.
Trend remains bearish overall with price trading below the EMAs and rejecting trendline resistance.
⚠️ This is not the place to guess — wait for confirmation. A strong candle close below or a fakeout rejection will show the path.
Trade smart. Wait for the market to speak. No bias, just price action. 🧠
DeGRAM | USDJPY formed the triangle📊 Technical Analysis
● Price defended the 142.80 confluence (triangle base + channel median), printing a bullish hammer and reclaiming the short-term trendline; structure now forms an ascending triangle inside the broader consolidation.
● Momentum is rising toward 146.50 – the pattern’s 1:1 swing and prior supply – with the next objective the upper triangle wall at 148.10. Invalid if candles fall back under 142.80.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Rebound in US ISM manufacturing and Fed minutes hinting “no near-term cuts” lifted 2-yr yields, while weak Japanese wage growth keeps the BoJ patient. The widening policy gap revives USD/JPY bid.
✨ Summary
Long 143.4-144.1; targets 146.5 then 148.1. Exit on a 4 h close below 142.8.
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USD/JPY Bearish Gartley Pattern Completion - SELL SETUP
📊 Trade Overview
Pair: USD/JPY
Pattern: Bearish Gartley
Timeframe: 15 minutes
Direction: SHORT
Setup Type: Harmonic Pattern Completion + FVG Confluence
🎯 Market Analysis
The price is evidently bearish according to market structure, currently in a retracement phase, and I expect a bearish continuation at the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the wave.
The harmonic pattern establishes an 88.6 Fibonacci ratio for bearish entry with a balanced and low-risk R/R of 1:1.82 (profit - risk).
USDJPY: Bearish Trend Remains in ControlUSDJPY continues to follow a clear downtrend on the H4 chart, respecting a descending trendline and forming consistent lower highs. The strong rejection at 144.800 and the presence of multiple FVGs further reinforce the bearish structure.
Price is currently retracing to test the FVG zone. If rejection occurs here, the downtrend could resume towards the 141.900 support level.
Trade Setup:
Sell near 144.700
TP: 141.900
SL: above 145.300
Supporting News:
"Risk-on" sentiment is back after strong manufacturing data from China and rising expectations that U.S. interest rates may soon peak, weakening the USD against the JPY.
Are you watching for a short setup like I am?
USDJPY Analysis – Bullish Continuation After Minor PullbackUSDJPY is currently trading around 143.340, and I anticipate a minor pullback into the 143.296 zone, which aligns with a possible bullish order block and discount zone on the H1/H4 timeframe.
This short-term dip could serve as a liquidity sweep or mitigation before price resumes its bullish trend, targeting the 147.381 level — a key area of interest tied to previous highs and potential liquidity above.
I’ll be watching for bullish confirmation (e.g., clean W-pattern, bullish engulfing candle, or break of internal structure) from the 143.296 zone before taking long entries.
🔻 Short-term expectation: Pullback to 143.296
🔼 Primary bias: Bullish continuation
🎯 Upside target: 147.381
📍 Current price: 143.340
📌 Risk Management Reminder: This is not financial advice. Always apply proper risk management:
✔️ Use a minimum of 1:2 RR setups
✔️ Risk no more than 1–2% of your capital per trade
✔️ Wait for clear confirmation before entering
✔️ Protect your account — preservation over prediction
USDJPY| - Weekky OutlookBias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Price has shown bullish intent by breaching a major internal high and taking out significant sell-side liquidity (SSL) before mitigating the 4H order block below. This suggests a bullish narrative is forming, even though the 4H swing high hasn’t been taken yet.
LTF Confirmation (30M):
Currently showing bearish momentum. I’ll wait for a clean CHoCH to confirm shift in intent. Once price sweeps liquidity and mitigates a valid 30M OB, I’ll look for entries.
Entry Zone:
After liquidity sweep + OB mitigation on 30M (or refinement on 5M), I’ll execute the setup.
Targets:
• Scalp: 5M structure highs
• Short-Term Hold: 30M structure highs
• Extended Hold: 4H structure highs (if price action is strong)
Mindset Note:
Structure tells the story, but price action confirms whether it’s worth riding. Even when structure looks awkward, respect is often still given—so stay fluid, but focused.
Bless Trading!
Interesting pattern found in USDJPY 4H chartIn this 4H chart, if you observe closely - the orange circle shows the peak at 148 price level
then, it falls to the blue circle at 146 price level before settling lower at the 143 price level. This is also where we are now.
I believe it is likely to break down further for which I have indicated a potential profit target.
Usdjpy D_TF, A symmetric triangle USD/JPY Daily Timeframe Analysis
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart, indicating that a potential breakout could occur in either direction. If the pattern plays out, we should be looking for a breakout and retest of the trendline towards the downside.
Short sell nowSell this pair now support has been broken which is the green lines on top... which price has pullback too sell now and take profits at the orange lines on. The bottom 300 fib level which is the next level of support where a major reversal is where it initially sold from in the past... look left and you will see
SELL: USDJPY 144.75 Trade Recommendation – 1H Chart🎯 Trade Setup:
Sell Entry Zone: 144.75 – 144.78
Stop Loss (SL): 145.15
Take Profit (TP): 142.60
Risk:Reward Ratio (R:R): Approx. 1:4 → Excellent for swing or intraday setups
📊 Technical Analysis Breakdown:
1. Strong Resistance Zone – High Reversal Probability:
The 144.75–144.78 zone:
A clear historical resistance area with multiple rejections in the past
Converges with the SMA 89 (red line) → acts as a strong dynamic resistance
Price has consistently formed lower highs around this region → showing selling pressure is building
2. Volume Analysis – Distribution Signals:
Volume slightly increased as price approached the resistance but did not accompany a breakout
No “breakout volume” → Indicates possible distribution phase, not accumulation → Favoring SELL positions
3. Price Action & Pattern:
The structure is forming lower highs – a key sign of bearish momentum
After the sharp rejection from the 145.22 zone (June 26), the market has shifted toward a bearish correction cycle
4. Target Area – Key Support:
142.60 is a well-defined support level:
Matches a previous major low
Corresponds with a high-liquidity zone from prior trading sessions
Ideal area to take profit before any potential bounce
⚠️ Risk Management Notes:
Trade confirmation increases if you see bearish candlestick signals (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar) in the entry zone
Exit immediately if price breaks and closes above 145.15 with strong volume – that invalidates the bearish setup
Is USDJPY in a Downtrend?USDJPY is supported by the trendline and the price is facing the resistance zone of 144.500. If the candle cannot close above this resistance zone, the sellers can push the price to break the trendline and head towards the support zone of 142.700. This support zone plays an important role in shaping the trend if broken the downtrend can be extended and no support zone can be strong enough to push the price of the pair until 140.300.
There is still a high possibility of a reaction so the BUY strategy at the support zone of 142.700 is still ready
On the other hand, if the candle closes above the resistance zone of 144.500, the uptrend is still maintained and heading towards this week's peak around 147.500. Pay attention to the price reaction at 146.000.
USDJPY: Bullish Forecast & Bullish Scenario
The recent price action on the USDJPY pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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