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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

USD/JPY, Where to Next?As explained before before, USD/JPY drowned almost two percent this week, three scenarios can play out next: - Bearish scenario: Current 4H chart is evolving into a bear flag from previous TR, bears could get a second or third (depending on ur analysis) leg down towards 154.00 target: -Bullish scenario: Bulls could fight of the downtrend and reclaim 156.000 to evolve into a trading range. This will be hard as they have to reclaim 20 EMA where bears might be present. Bulls would need to show consecutive buying to show they are back in control. -Sideways trading: Trading could be sideways to reach 20 EMA on the daily before next move is decided. So far, odds favour the Bear scenario, the longer we stay below the trading range, the more likely bears are will get their bear leg. - Scalp idea for the day traders: Currently, theres an extending triangle evolving with an inside wedge top, this could be a sign bears are stepping in again. Bulls did not show strength at start of day, they got two small legs, but were not satisfied, likely to start selling again. Day could evolve into trading range day depending on reaction at day open. If extending triangle plays out and there's consecutive selling, 155 is the target with 20 EMA acting as resistance. Peace, B Setup
by Baudoouin
USD/JPY begins to unravelUSD/JPY has fallen nearly -2% in two days, and the required central bank divergence between the Fed and BOJ appears to be returning, which could see prices much lower from here. Prices are close to reaching my bearish target at the monthly pivot point (154.60) outlined in yesterday's video, and prices are less than a day's trading-range away from it. Perhaps it can tag that key level today. However, with a bullish RSI (2) divergence on the daily chart, and the 50-day SMA nearby, bears may want to remain nimble. Still, if we see a bounce from the monthly pivot, bears could seek to fade into minor rallies within Thursday's range in anticipation of a move down towards the 1534 handle. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Short
by CityIndex
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Bearish Momentum PersistsThe USD/JPY pair remains under pressure on the second trading day of the week, trading below the EMA 34 and 89, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. Following an unsuccessful attempt to sustain higher levels, the price has retraced to the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, located around 156.552 and 156.179, respectively. This corrective move is characteristic of a downtrend and reflects the likelihood of the pair resuming its bearish trajectory as selling pressure intensifies, aligning with Dow Theory principles.
Short
by Makima_Fx
USD/JPY calm in holiday tradeThe yen is almost unchanged on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.37, up 0.06% on the day. We can expect a quiet day, as the US observes Martin Luther King Day and Donald Trump will be sworn in as President. The yen is coming off a busy week, with sharp swings on each of the past three trading days. The Japanese currency gained 0.95% last week, its best week since November. Still, USD/JPY remains high and investors are anxiously awaiting the Bank of Japan rate decision on Jan. 24. There are no tier-1 releases out of Japan this week but investors will be busy keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision on Friday. The central bank tends not to telegraph its intentions but has hinted at a rate hike and the market will be on the lookout for any hints or signals from BoJ policy makers ahead of the rate decision. The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. Inflation has been above the BoJ's 2% target for almost three years and higher wage growth means that inflation should remain sustainable as it moves higher. The weak yen is another reason for the BoJ to raise rates and make the yen more attractive to investors. The big question mark is Donald Trump, whose has promised tariffs on US trading partners, which threatens to shake up the financial markets and damage Japan's crucial export sector. The Trump factor is unlikely to prevent a rate hike this week, but supports the case for the BoJ to wait several months before delivering another rate hike. USD/JPY tested support at 155.88 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.39 There is resistance at 156.79 and 157.28
by OANDA
USD/JPY: Consolidation Ahead of Big MoveLooking at the 4-hour chart of USD/JPY, I see the pair is currently trading around 155.79, with a notable reaction at the support area near 155.50. The 34 EMA and 89 EMA have started to widen their gap, indicating that the bearish pressure is still in place. However, the 155.50 price zone acts as an important psychological support, creating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. The 34 EMA acts as dynamic resistance near 156.20. If the price fails to break above this level, the downtrend is likely to continue. A break below 155.50 could drag the price to test deeper support at 154.80 – a strong support level in previous sessions. Conversely, if the price breaks above the 34 EMA, the pair could test the higher resistance at 156.80, near the 89 EMA.
by nini_gone
USDJAPY Successful trading requires meticulous planning and strong risk management. For instance, in the case of USD/JPY, the sell entry is set at 155.30, with three take-profit levels at 154.50, 154.00, and 153.50. These targets indicate key points where traders might secure profits as the market moves downward. To safeguard against excessive losses, a stop-loss point is defined at 156.50. This automated mechanism helps limit losses by closing the trade if the market moves in an unfavorable direction. Setting a stop-loss is a fundamental aspect of managing risk in volatile markets. One of the golden rules of trading is to never risk more than you can afford to lose. Implementing tools like stop-loss orders and spreading investments across multiple assets can reduce exposure to risk and safeguard capital. Trading success also hinges on the ability to learn and adapt. Markets are dynamic, and continuous education about trends, economic developments, and technical indicators is essential for refining strategies and staying ahead. Patience and discipline are critical traits for traders. By adhering to a well-defined trading plan, setting achievable goals, and avoiding emotional decision-making, traders can improve their chances of success. Each trade, whether profitable or not, provides valuable insights for growth and improvement. Through consistent learning, disciplined execution, and robust risk management, traders can navigate the complexities of financial markets, striving for long-term success while minimizing risks.
Short
by EXPERT117Ai
USDJAPY Trading successfully requires careful planning and effective risk management. For example, in the case of USD/JPY, the buy entry is at 157.50, with three potential take-profit levels at 158.70, 159.50, and 160.80. These targets represent key points where traders may choose to secure their profits as the price moves upward. To minimize potential losses, a stop-loss point is set at 156.00. This acts as a safety net, automatically closing the trade if the market moves against the planned direction. Setting a stop-loss is essential for managing risks in unpredictable markets. One of the core principles of trading is to never risk more than you can afford to lose. Using tools such as stop-loss orders and diversifying investments across different assets or markets helps mitigate risks and protect capital. Success in trading also depends on the ability to learn and adapt. Markets are constantly evolving, and staying informed about trends, indicators, and external factors is crucial for refining strategies. Traders who educate themselves consistently are better equipped to handle changes and challenges. Discipline and patience are key qualities for any trader. Following a structured plan, setting realistic goals, and avoiding emotional decisions can improve overall performance. Every trade, whether it ends in profit or loss, is an opportunity to learn valuable lessons. By combining a disciplined approach with solid risk management techniques, traders can maximize their chances of achieving long-term success while navigating the complexities of the financial markets.
Long
by EXPERT117Ai
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Yen Strengthens Amid Bearish MomentumThe USD/JPY pair exhibits a clear bearish inclination, driven by a combination of economic and market factors that are strengthening the Japanese Yen and weakening the US Dollar. Currently, the pair has dropped to approximately 155.60, recording a 0.44% loss for the day, with sellers evidently attempting to push the price further toward critical support levels between 154.90 and 153.15. The downward pressure is amplified by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent positive data such as improvements in Japan’s core machinery orders, signaling a recovery in capital expenditure. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the Trump administration contributes to a negative climate for the US Dollar, which is already under pressure from a recent slowdown in buying flows. From a technical perspective, the pair has encountered significant resistance in the 156.55-156.60 region, a level that halted previous recovery attempts and now acts as a key barrier. For a meaningful trend reversal, a sustained breakout above this resistance, followed by consolidation above 157.00, would be necessary to pave the way toward recent highs at 158.00 or even 158.85. However, the likelihood of a downward breakout seems more tangible, considering that the support at 155.25 represents the last defense before a drop toward the psychological level of 155.00 and further toward 154.60 and 153.30. The current market environment, characterized by reduced trading volumes due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, suggests caution for traders, as dynamics could quickly shift with the return of liquidity and the announcement of potential monetary or political decisions in both Japan and the US. The combination of positive economic data for Japan and expectations of higher rates positions the Yen in a place of strength, while the Dollar may continue to struggle without a clear positive catalyst. Holding below 155.00 would be a significant signal for bears, indicating an extended downward trajectory toward deeper support levels.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDJPY - Will the weakness of the yen stop?!The USDJPY pairing in the 4 -hour timeframe is between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its mid -term uptrend. If corrected by publishing economic data this week, we can see the downward trend and then the restricted demand zone, and in that area with the right risk. The valid defeat of the specified resistance range will pave the way for the pair up to 160. Tatsu Yamasaki, a former Japanese official, stated in an interview with Nikkei that collaboration between Trump and Tokyo could help normalize the dollar-yen exchange rate. He suggested that Trump should work with Tokyo to weaken the overly strong dollar. Such cooperation could strengthen economic relations between the two nations and bring greater stability to financial markets. Meanwhile, robust U.S. labor market data for December has led many analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates further at this time. Some even predict that the report could pave the way for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2025. An economist at Bank of America wrote in a note, “Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for an extended period. However, the risk of a rate hike is growing.” According to the economist, factors such as core inflation growth or rising inflation expectations could trigger a rate hike.Concerns also revolve around Trump’s policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, which may contribute to higher inflation. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remarked that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts due to stable labor markets and inflation nearing target levels. She also predicted that global economic growth will remain steady as inflation gradually declines in 2025. Georgieva highlighted uncertainties surrounding trade policies under the new U.S. administration, emphasizing their potential impact on the global economy. Additionally, she expects global interest rates to remain relatively high for an extended period. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated that interest rates will be raised if economic improvements and price growth continue. He noted that the final decision on this matter will be made next week. Ueda’s remarks contributed to strengthening the yen in financial markets. Himino, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, indicated that if economic projections materialize, monetary easing policies will be adjusted and interest rates increased. He stressed the need for continuous monitoring of U.S. economic policies under the new administration. Domestically, one of the critical issues remains the outlook for wage growth in the fiscal year 2025. Himino acknowledged various risks, both domestic and international, while noting that the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong. Masato Kanda, a former currency official for Japan, continues to comment on the yen. Speaking in Tokyo, he emphasized that currency markets should move based on fundamental principles, and any sudden deviations from these fundamentals require correction. Separately, Nippon Steel announced that it is the sole partner capable of fully preserving U.S. Steel, keeping its blast furnaces operational, and maintaining jobs in the industry. The company stated that its commitments have been shared in multiple meetings with various stakeholders, including employees. Meanwhile, Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, has been accused of unfair biases, as he cannot match the scope and scale of Nippon Steel’s proposal. Nippon Steel emphasized its determination to take whatever measures are necessary to finalize the deal.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 15, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is struggling to gain significant strength and is languishing near multi-month lows against its US counterpart amid doubts over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plans. Signs of intensifying inflationary pressures in Japan leave the door open for a BoJ rate hike in January or March. In addition, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino signaled on Tuesday that a rate hike remains a real possibility at the upcoming meeting. However, there was no direct indication in Himino's comments about the possibility of a rate hike in January. Moreover, some investors believe that the BOJ may wait until the spring talks before pulling the trigger. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkishness in December was a key factor behind the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields. This has widened the yield differential between the US and Japan, which in turn is seen as another factor undermining the low-yielding Japanese yen. In addition, risk-on sentiment is deterring traders from placing bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. At the same time, weak US Dollar (USD) price action acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation data. The crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report may influence the Fed's policy course and stimulate demand for the USD. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
BOJ to discuss rate hike, yen dips lowerThe yen remains calm and is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.98, up 0.34% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Japan this week and the yen is having a relatively quiet week. That could change with the release of US inflation on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y in December from 2.7% in November, while core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Inflation reports have had significant impact on rate expectations but the December inflation rate might not be all that significant, as expectations of a rate cut have fallen in recent weeks. Since the December meeting, the Fed has tried to dampen rate-cut expectations and the market is not expecting a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025. The money markets have currently priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. With inflation largely under control and a solid labor market, there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates in the near term. The Bank of Japan tends not to telegraph its rate plans, leaving investors in the dark and on the hunt for clues about the central bank's rate plans. The uncertainty adds to the drama ahead of BoJ meetings and means that each meeting should be treated as a market-mover. BoJ's Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the BoJ would discuss a rate hike at the Jan. 24 meeting. Himino didn't say what decision he expected the BoJ to make but reiterated Governor's Ueda recent comments that wage growth was solid and that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies. USD/JPY tested resistance at 158.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 158.49 There is support at 157.78 and 157.42
by OANDA
USDJPY Short USD/JPY Short Trade Analysis This trade is purely structure-based, as I do not trade news events like Inauguration Day. My focus is entirely on price action and market structure. The market recently dipped below the structural level at 156.310, signaling a potential bearish continuation. Currently, it's forming its Outside Return (OR)—a pullback that aligns with the broader downtrend. My target for this trade is the next key support level at 154.551, consistent with the ongoing bearish sentiment. Staying true to market structure and ignoring news helps me maintain a disciplined and objective trading strategy.
Short
by AlexanderPlant