JPYUSD trade ideas
USD/JPY Falls to Near 144.20 Amid Dollar Weakness
The USD/JPY currency pair has reversed its early gains and is trading near 144.20 during Wednesdayโs European session. This pullback comes as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to maintain the momentum of Tuesday's recovery.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, has retreated from its intraday high of 99.85 and is stabilizing around 99.50, signaling a lack of bullish follow-through.
Key Drivers:
Weaker USD sentiment is weighing on the pair, likely influenced by a shift in US Treasury yields or expectations regarding future Fed rate moves.
A stronger Japanese Yen could also be at play, potentially supported by safe-haven demand or policy signals from the Bank of Japan.
Technical Perspective:
If USD/JPY continues to decline, the next support level might be found near 144.00, followed by 143.50.
On the upside, resistance is seen near 145.00, a psychological and technical barrier.
USDJPY Buy Setup! OB + 61.8% Fib + Trend Channel ConfluenceUSDJPY | 30-Min Chart โ High Probability Buy Setup in Progress
USDJPY is currently respecting a bullish market structure within a well-defined ascending trend channel. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders are watching for a precise reaction at the confluence of a key Order Block (OB), Fibonacci retracement levels, and mid-channel support.
๐ Trade Breakdown:
Bullish Market Structure
Price has shifted from bearish to bullish after forming a key higher low and continuing with higher highs within the trend channel. The structure is being respected with multiple taps on both upper and lower channel boundaries.
Internal Liquidity & Order Flow:
Price previously swept sell-side liquidity below the recent swing low and sharply reversed, confirming internal liquidity engineering and institutional involvement.
Currently, weโre seeing price stall after rejecting the upper channel and OB zone. A retracement into the discount zone is anticipated before continuation.
๐ฃ Order Block Zone (OB): 143.032 โ 143.137
A clear bullish OB formed after a strong impulsive move, marking the last down candle before the bullish break of structure.
Located just above the 61.8% Fibonacci level โ strong confluence.
๐ Fibonacci Levels from Last Swing Low to High:
61.8% = 143.137
70.5% = 143.032
Potential reaction zone aligns perfectly with OB + trendline + psychological round level (143.000 area)
๐ Buy Setup Expectation:
USDJPY is expected to retrace into the OB/Fib confluence zone before a bullish continuation toward the upper boundary of the trend channel and beyond.
๐ต Projected Path:
Price dips into OB โ reacts to 61.8โ70.5% retracement โ bullish reversal โ break to fresh highs near 143.510 or higher
๐ง Chart Ninja Entry Plan:
๐น Entry Zone: 143.032 โ 143.137 (OB + 61.8โ70.5% Fib)
๐ป SL Below: 143.000 (beneath OB and psychological level)
๐ Target: 143.510 (channel top + previous supply zone)
โ๏ธ RRR: Approx. 1:3+ โ high precision Smart Money entry
๐ฌ Ninja Wisdom:
Patience before profit. Wait for price to return to the zone where institutions left footprints โ the OB at equilibrium pricing. Combine OB + Fib + channel and you're trading like the banks.
Retail buys the breakout. Smart Money buys the pullback. ๐ฅท๐
๐ Save this chart before the setup triggers!
๐ง Do you see the same confluence? Comment your entry/TP/SL plans โฌ๏ธ
๐ฃ Follow @ChartNinjas88 for more sniper setups on major FX pairs every session!
USDJPY Sell- Go for sell
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how
- keep looking for sell even if price goes one more up
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USDJPY InsightWelcome, everyone!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to hit the booster and subscribe!
Key Points
- Japanese local media, including Kyodo News, reported that the U.S. and Japan are likely to hold the 5th round of high-level tariff negotiations later this week in the U.S.
- The Eurozoneโs preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose by 1.9% YoY, slightly below the market forecast of 2.0%. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates this Thursday, and further stimulus measures are anticipated through the end of the year.
- Caroline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, stated that โdialogue between the U.S. and China will take place soon,โ reaffirming that communication between President Trump and President Xi Jinping remains valid and active.
- The U.S. job openings in April stood at 7.39 million, exceeding the market expectation of 7.10 million, suggesting continued strength in the U.S. labor market.
This Weekโs Major Economic Events
+ June 4: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
+ June 5: ECB Interest Rate Decision
+ June 6: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for May, U.S. May Unemployment Rate
USDJPY Chart Analysis
The pair has recently shown significant movement around the 144 level. The downtrend has been completely broken, and in the short term, USDJPY is expected to fluctuate within the 140โ149 range. Due to resistance at higher levels, there's a strong chance the price could fall back to the 140 support zone. However, if the pair turns upward, a rise toward the 149 level is also likely.
USDJPY: Weekly OverviewHello traders,
Generally, I think USD tends to be weaker in next weeks
Why 142.879 is a white (No-Trade) zone?
140.729 is a strong reversal point regarding the Weekly timeframe.
Any short trade here is not rational.
It is not suitable for long, because of the bearish trend line.
Other zones are clear!
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The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
USDJPY Returns to Key Support โ Another Bounce Ahead?At the end of April and beginning of May, I pointed out the importance of the 142 support zone and argued that USDJPY could reverse to the upside, targeting the 146 resistance.
The pair did exactly that โ not only hitting the 146 target, but also spiking as high as 148, reaching the next major resistance.
๐ Now We're Back towards 142
Since mid-May, USDJPY has pulled back again and is now retesting the 142 area โ the same zone that previously triggered a strong bounce.
๐ Outlook and Trading Plan
I still consider the 142 level a solid support, and this recent drop could offer a new buying opportunity.
Any dips under 142 that quickly reverse can be used to build long positions, with a target once more around 146.
That offers a clear trade setup with a good risk-to-reward ratio.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
USDJPY - Setting Up for a Potential LongAnalysis:
On the USDJPY 30-minute chart, we're observing price action that suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend after a recent pullback. Applying "Smart Money Concepts" to our analysis, here's what we're seeing:
Previous Structure Break & Bullish Order Flow: Looking left, we can see that price has recently broken significant previous highs, indicating a shift towards a bullish market structure. The general order flow has been upwards, despite recent retracements.
Liquidity Sweep & Institutional Interest (Potential): The sharp move down on June 5th, while looking bearish to some, could be interpreted as a "liquidity sweep" or a "stop hunt" by larger players. This often happens to absorb sell-side liquidity before a significant move higher. Price then moved back into an area of interest.
"Fair Value Gap" / Imbalance Filling: Price has recently come back into (or is approaching) an area where there was a rapid move up, leaving behind what's often referred to as a "Fair Value Gap" or an "Imbalance." Smart money often revisits these areas to "fill" or "mitigate" these gaps before continuing the trend. This suggests that the current pullback might be a retest of such an area.
"Order Block" / Demand Zone: We've identified a potential "order block" or a strong demand zone (the highlighted pink box) where institutional buying pressure was likely present previously. Price is currently interacting with this zone, and we anticipate a reaction from here. This is an area where we would expect smart money to step back in and push price higher.
Trading Idea:
Entry: We're looking for confirmation of bullish momentum around the current price levels, ideally within or just above the identified demand zone (pink box). A clear break and retest of the immediate resistance at approximately 143.600 could provide a good entry.
Target: Our primary target is the previous swing high around 145.770, representing a potential expansion of the bullish trend.
Invalidation: Our invalidation level (stop loss) would be placed below the identified demand zone, specifically below 143.000. A break below this level would invalidate our bullish thesis and suggest a deeper retracement or a potential trend reversal.
In Summary:
We are anticipating a continuation of the bullish trend on USDJPY, predicated on the idea that the recent pullback was a liquidity sweep and a retest of a significant demand zone/order block. We're looking for price to respect this area and push towards new highs.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trade responsibly and manage your risk.
USDJPYJust a thought , Understand first we're looking at a reversal , those are not for the faint of hearts , They can be rough with a lot of people looking to just destroy the pair once and for all, Mind you a lot more money wants to save it , we're talking about two of the most stable currencies , Lets see who wins , Hope you leverage the right side .
USDJPY Short Outlook Interesting to see if USDJPY drops below the lows market at and below the orange line below. Buys are likely to have stops there cause an run on liquidity if prices drop lower. I would expect a fast or aggressive trade lower.
Disclosure: This is only a technical analysis with limited details provided. This view also does not consider any fundamental / economic drivers.
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 143.25
1st Support: 141.80
1st Resistance: 145.97
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Disclaimer:
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USDJPY Pullback? Watch OB + Fib Confluence for the Next Buy WaveUSDJPY | 30-Min Chart โ Smart Money Buy Setup in Progress
After a sharp bullish rally, USDJPY is setting up for a classic retracement buy scenario. We're now watching a key confluence zone between Fibonacci levels, a bullish order block, and internal trend structure โ all lining up for a high-probability long setup.
๐ Trade Breakdown:
๐ Pullback Expected Before Next Rally:
Price rejected near short-term resistance and is retracing from local highs.
Retracement aligns with key OB + 61.8โ79% Fib zone = institutional entry zone.
๐ฃ Order Block (OB) Demand Zone: 143.086 โ 142.828
Last bullish candle before explosive rally = demand OB.
OB sits within premium Fib retracement = Smart Money buy zone.
๐ Fibonacci Levels (Swing Low to High):
61.8% โ 143.200
70.5% โ 143.000
79% โ 142.828
This is the kill zone for institutional longs โ where Smart Money typically enters before expansion.
๐ต Projected Play:
Retracement to OB/Fib confluence.
Bullish rejection from OB zone.
Impulse move targeting previous highs and beyond.
๐ก Target Level: 144.396 (sits just above prior high and aligns with -27% Fib extension)
๐ Current Bias:
Short-term retracement โ Mid-term bullish continuation
Expecting price to dip into OB then launch.
๐ง Chart Ninja Entry Plan:
๐น Entry Zone: 143.086 โ 142.828
๐ป SL Below: 142.650 (below OB/Fib + structure wick)
๐ Target: 144.396
โ๏ธ RRR: 1:3+ โ high confluence risk-managed buy
๐ Technical Confluence Checklist:
โ
OB demand zone
โ
61.8โ79% retracement
โ
Bullish market structure
โ
Internal channel support
โ
Momentum slow before entry
๐ Save this chart โ donโt chase, let price come to you
๐ฌ Comment if you're watching this OB too
๐ฃ Follow @ChartNinjas88 for precision-based setups daily
Is a new round of decline impending?
The latest prices of USD/JPY are fluctuating around the range of 1.43922 to 1.44275, with an average price of 1.43917. The earlier pullback from higher levels indicates some downward pressure. On the upside, the pair may encounter resistance near the 144.20 level, with the next key resistance at around 144.50 and the first major resistance at 145.00. A close above the 145.00 level could lay the foundation for further gains.
Under the above scenario, the pair may even break through the 146.00 resistance level, with the next major target for bulls near the 147.80 resistance level.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathingโmaintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
USD/JPY M15 Support & Resistance Levels๐ Here are some key zones I've identified on the 15m timeframe.
These zones are based on real-time data analysis performed by a custom software I personally developed.
The tool is designed to scan the market continuously and highlight potential areas of interest based on price action behavior and volume dynamics.
Your feedback is welcome!
USDJPY Analysis โ Yield Support Signals Potential UpsideUSDJPY is currently sitting at a key support zone around 142.80โ143.00, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. This support area has previously acted as a strong launchpad for price rallies.
๐ข Technical Setup:
Price action has formed a clean higher low structure, bouncing off horizontal support.
The US10Y Treasury Yield (pink line) has rebounded sharply and is diverging to the upside โ a leading indicator for USDJPY strength.
The Fib retracement from the last swing move aligns well with the 0% zone, suggesting the dip might be complete.
A bullish reaction from here targets the 148.50 zone, with intermediate resistance around 145.00โ146.00.
๐ Risk Levels:
Invalidated below 141.40 (structure break).
Stops could be placed below 142.00, targeting a 2:1 or better risk-reward ratio.
๐ Macro-Fundamental Insight:
U.S. Yields are firming despite mixed Fed signals โ this gives strength to USD, especially against low-yielders like the JPY.
BOJ remains dovish with no urgency to normalize rates, keeping the yen weak.
With risk appetite improving and bond yields lifting, carry trade dynamics favor USDJPY upside.
โ
Conclusion:
As long as US10Y yields remain firm and USD holds above 142.00, USDJPY has a strong probability of rallying toward 148.50. Look for confirmation with higher highs on the 4H chart and continued divergence between yield and price.