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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

Fundamental Market Analysis for November 7, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty in registering a notable recovery against its US counterpart and is currently trading at a level approaching its lowest point since 30 July. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) limited ability to raise interest rates and the prevailing risk-on environment continue to undermine the safe-haven yen. Furthermore, the rise in US Treasury bond yields, driven by the return of Republican Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States (US), has contributed to the downward pressure on the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the overnight decline prompted a verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, which may provide some support to the yen and help limit losses. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading just below the four-month high reached on Wednesday, amid optimism over growth and inflation. This could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates. This could provide further encouragement for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision this Thursday. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Usd/jpy mmbm have .Leverage your model setups to execute buy trades effectively in this market. The current market dynamics suggest a promising upside potential, completing the market maker buy model with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Utilizing these models, traders can align their strategies with institutional behavior, anticipating price movements with greater accuracy and confidence. Credit to MMXM Trader and Inner Circle Trader for their foundational insights into market maker models, enabling traders to harness the strategies employed by high-volume participants. The application of these methods within today’s market offers an advantageous edge for those seeking precision in their entries and exits.
Long
by silarock123
THOUGHTS ON USD/JPYUSD/JPY 4H - With this market I am expecting some bearish structure as I want price to put in a deeper correction to the downside before taking us higher in the market. Before price does that I am expecting an initial correction to the upside fractally in order for price to grab more Supply allowing price to continue lower performing this deeper correction. Once price trades us higher up and into the Supply Zone above I will be waiting for relevant pieces of confirmation in order to enter short in this market, I will ride price down and into the Demand zone below. Once price trades us down and into the Demand zone I will look to close my short positions and I will prepare to go long in this market with it being a predominately bullish market on the higher timeframe structure, this giving us a clear longer term bias.
Short
by Lukegforex
USDJPY / OVERALL UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE / 4HUSD JPY 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Supply Zone (154.685 - 154.975), This range is seen as a resistance level where the price might struggle to break above, as sellers are likely to dominate. If the price stabilizes in this zone, it suggests that a reversal could occur, potentially leading to a decline. Potential Decline to Demand Zone (150.331 - 149.075) , If the price reverses from the supply zone, the expectation is that it could drop to the demand zone, where buying pressure is higher, and the price might find support. Downtrend Confirmation , For a confirmed downtrend, prices would need to break below the demand zone, signaling strong selling pressure and possibly more declines. Uptrend Confirmation (157.135 - 157.873) , Conversely, if prices can break above the supply zone, it would signal a potential uptrend. The target in this case would be the next resistance zone, around 157.135 to 157.873.
Short
by ArinaKarayi
USDJPY Daily Analysis: A Slight Bearish Bias Expected!!Introduction Today’s analysis of the USDJPY pair suggests a potential for slight bearish movement. Key fundamental factors, including recent US and Japanese economic data and central bank positions, seem to favor a downside bias. Let’s examine these drivers in detail to provide a comprehensive view for traders and investors monitoring the USDJPY. 1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Tone The US Federal Reserve’s latest communication indicates a cautious approach, with market participants widely expecting the Fed to maintain its current interest rate. This dovish tone, coupled with moderating US economic data, could weaken the US Dollar. If the Fed holds rates or hints at potential rate cuts in 2024, this could weigh on the USD, providing room for JPY strength against the Dollar. Consequently, the market’s perception of a less aggressive Fed policy may contribute to the USDJPY pair’s bearish bias today. 2. Bank of Japan’s Evolving Stance The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has recently shown signs of potentially moving away from its ultra-loose policy stance. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments have signaled a potential shift in monetary policy, raising speculation around adjustments in yield control measures. Any further tightening of Japanese yields or gradual normalization signals may strengthen the JPY as Japanese bond yields rise, attracting capital inflows. This shift, however gradual, could support a stronger JPY, thereby pressuring USDJPY downward. 3. Japanese Economic Resilience Japan’s economy has recently demonstrated steady resilience, with improved inflation data aligning closer to the BoJ’s targets. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings and positive manufacturing activity lend support to the JPY. The BoJ’s confidence in these indicators may reinforce market sentiment that Japan is on a steady path to growth. Consequently, with USD expected to remain relatively soft, this positions the JPY more favorably in the USDJPY pair, reinforcing today’s bearish outlook. 4. Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows In today’s mixed risk sentiment environment, safe-haven assets like the JPY often become more attractive. Investors may favor the JPY in times of global economic uncertainty or as geopolitical events unfold. As the US Dollar is pressured by softer economic indicators, the JPY’s safe-haven appeal may drive demand, contributing to USDJPY’s bearish tendency today. Conclusion In conclusion, the USDJPY pair shows potential for a slight bearish bias today due to the Fed’s cautious stance, the BoJ’s gradual policy evolution, resilient Japanese economic data, and safe-haven flows favoring the JPY. Traders may find it beneficial to watch these fundamental factors closely, as they provide critical insights into USDJPY’s likely direction. Keywords: #USDJPYanalysis, #USDollar, #JapaneseYen, #USDJPYbearishbias, #ForextradingNovember12024, #FederalReservepolicy, #Bankof Japanstance, #JPYstrength, #Safehavencurrency, #Forextechnicalanalysis, #Japaneseinflationdata, #Forextradinginsights.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 1, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) retreated from its recent gains following the release of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from Jibun Bank and S&P Global on Friday. However, the USD/JPY pair declined as the yen strengthened following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that increased the likelihood of a rate hike in December. Jibun Bank's headline PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector came in at 49.2 in October, down from 49.7 in September. This composite single-digit reading indicates that Japan's manufacturing output continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, with the pace of decline in output and new order inflows more pronounced. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy to achieve the price target in a sustainable and stable manner. Traders await the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to add 113,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY/Bearish Setups Ahead: (Possibly 670+ pips)After a long bearish run, we've seen a key break below the intra trend low at 146.60. Price has also broken out of the broader trend dating from March 2022 to December 2023, dipping into demand zones along the way. Now trading at a premium in the current downtrend, the logical play is to look for short opportunities. On the 4H timeframe, a rising channel extends from October 4, 2024, at 147.34 up to October 31, 2024. Given upcoming fundamental releases, there’s potential for price to drop below 151.40. A close below this level on the 4H chart would confirm a trendline break and a structural shift, signaling a bearish move that could run down to 145.10 — a solid 670 pips in play. To catch this move early, I’ll be watching the 1H timeframe. If price meets our key condition of closing below 151.40, or ideally falls to 150.88, then a swing entry at 152.21 with an initial target at 149.55 is in focus. We’ll trail down from there as price develops. Remember, the close below 151.40 is essential for validating this entry. Risk according to your tolerance and keep an eye out here for updates on this trade and more. Don’t miss my latest analysis on DXY and Gold heading into the US election!
by Ieios
USDJPY_109 2024.10.30 17:50:03 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.98 SL: 153.112 Entry Price: 153.236 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to face selling pressure near 150.00, and a break below 150.05 could indicate a continued decline to below 147.25. * The mean reversion rebound may have reached an overstretched condition, suggesting a potential pause in the upside momentum. * The daily RSI has flashed a bearish condition, indicating a potential pause in the upside momentum. * FX option expiries at 151.00, 152.00, and 152.50 could influence price movements around these levels. **Expected short-term price movement:** Down **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical overview and forecast suggest that the pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth to the area above 159.05. * The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the main scenario indicates a potential drop to levels between 138.08 and 131.25 if the price holds below 151.54, but an alternative scenario indicates a potential rise to levels between 153.88 and 156.74. * The moving averages suggest a short-term bullish trend, but a bearish correction is anticipated before further growth. **Expected long-term price movement:** Up, but with a potential bearish correction before further growth. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data and events emerge. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is facing selling pressure near the 150.00 level, and technical analysis suggests a potential drop to 138.08-131.25 if the price holds below 151.54. * However, the forecast for October 30, 2024, indicates an attempt to test the support area near 151.65, followed by an upward price rebound. * Given the conflicting signals, I would say that the short-term price movement is uncertain, but slightly leaning towards a **downward** movement, with a potential target of 147.25 if the pair breaks through 150.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The US Dollar's outlook remains firm due to expectations of moderate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support the USD/JPY pair. * Japan's National core CPI acceleration could lead to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could weaken the JPY and support the USD/JPY pair. * Technical analysis suggests a potential rise to 153.88-156.74 if the price breaks above 151.54, and a clearance above 149.30 could extend the mean reversion rebound to 151.95. * Based on these factors, I would say that the long-term price movement is expected to be **upward**, with a potential target of 159.05 or higher. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65, which suggests a potential short-term decline. * However, the forecast also mentions a potential rebound upwards to continue growth above 159.05, indicating a possible short-term bounce. * Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral to slightly bearish, with a possible range-bound movement between 151.65 and 159.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical analysis suggests that the pair is moving within a bullish channel, indicating a long-term uptrend. * The forecast mentions a potential growth above 159.05, which supports the long-term bullish outlook. * The fundamental factors, such as the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, also support the long-term strength of the US Dollar. * Overall, the long-term outlook is bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term decline or range-bound movement, but the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
3
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving UP. The chart broke through the dynamic resistance, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
9
USD/JPY Slips as Verbal Intervention Boosts Yen, US Data LoomsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) found some support on Thursday following verbal intervention from officials, which helped reverse part of the previous session’s steep losses against the US Dollar (USD). This recovery dragged the USD/JPY pair down below the 152.00 region during the early European session, after hitting its lowest level since July 31 overnight. However, doubts about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further—exacerbated by Japan’s upcoming election-related uncertainties—could limit the Yen’s rebound. Key US Economic Data on the Horizon Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US economic data, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair. The release of the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the S&P Global PMI figures is expected to drive market sentiment in the second half of the day. Forecasts suggest that new applications for unemployment benefits could climb towards the 250,000 mark, indicating potential weakness in the US labor market. If confirmed, this data could trigger a bearish reaction in the USD, putting additional pressure on the USD/JPY. Volatility Ahead for USD/JPY With these critical data points set to shape market dynamics, traders should brace for potential volatility in the USD/JPY pair. A higher-than-expected rise in jobless claims could challenge the recent bullish trend of the US Dollar, offering further support to the JPY. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, the price has shown some reaction to the overhead supply zone. However, traders will likely wait for the outcome of the US economic releases before committing to a bearish setup. If the data comes in softer than expected, it could trigger a stronger JPY rebound, potentially setting up for a bearish move in USD/JPY. Conversely, if the data surprises to the upside, the pair might regain some bullish momentum. Patience is key as traders await clearer signals post-data release to determine the next directional move for USD/JPY. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
12
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/30/2024This is my idea Nbr 17 after 15 ✅️ USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/30/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
1