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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

BOJ to discuss rate hike, yen dips lowerThe yen remains calm and is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.98, up 0.34% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Japan this week and the yen is having a relatively quiet week. That could change with the release of US inflation on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y in December from 2.7% in November, while core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Inflation reports have had significant impact on rate expectations but the December inflation rate might not be all that significant, as expectations of a rate cut have fallen in recent weeks. Since the December meeting, the Fed has tried to dampen rate-cut expectations and the market is not expecting a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025. The money markets have currently priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. With inflation largely under control and a solid labor market, there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates in the near term. The Bank of Japan tends not to telegraph its rate plans, leaving investors in the dark and on the hunt for clues about the central bank's rate plans. The uncertainty adds to the drama ahead of BoJ meetings and means that each meeting should be treated as a market-mover. BoJ's Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the BoJ would discuss a rate hike at the Jan. 24 meeting. Himino didn't say what decision he expected the BoJ to make but reiterated Governor's Ueda recent comments that wage growth was solid and that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies. USD/JPY tested resistance at 158.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 158.49 There is support at 157.78 and 157.42
by yesfish
Potential Setup for JPY/USD: Double Top and Wedge Pattern AnalysThe JPY/USD pair is showing signs of a major trend reversal, with a potential double top pattern forming. While there was a bullish trend earlier, it officially ended with the penetration of the trendline in early August 2024, marking the shift to a potential bearish structure. Currently, the market appears to be in the second leg of the double top, signaling the possibility of a major reversal. This setup could take one of three forms: • A higher high double top, indicating a false breakout. • A lower high double top, confirming weaker buying momentum. • A double top with equal highs, aligning with a classical reversal pattern. Key Observations 1. Resistance Zone Around 160 Price is expected to test the resistance zone near 160, which aligns with the potential peak of the double top. Traders should look for a rejection signal to confirm the resistance level's strength. 2. Wedge Blow-Off Above the Upper Channel Line The first sign of a reversal may be a blow-off in the wedge pattern, as the price moves above the upper channel line. This would indicate exhaustion in the upward momentum and the beginning of a bearish reversal. 3. Retest or Pullback Scenarios o If the price breaks through the resistance zone, wait for a retest of the 160 level to confirm it as a false breakout. o If the price starts to decline without reaching the resistance zone, traders should watch for a pullback to the EMAs. A death cross—where the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA—will provide further confirmation of bearish momentum. 4. Trading Range and Micro Double Top Formation The price may enter a trading range after rejection at the resistance zone or following a breakout. Within this range, we can expect the development of a micro double top pattern, which could serve as a precursor to further downside. This setup would reinforce bearish momentum and provide additional entry opportunities. Target Levels 1. First Target – 150 Zone The initial target lies near the 150 level, which aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement. At this zone, we can expect a pullback before further downside. o If the 150 zone is penetrated, traders should move their stop-loss to the pullback level for protection. o Additionally, traders may choose to add to their existing short positions during the pullback, depending on the structure of the retracement. 2. Second Target – Beginning of the Wedge The final target for the double top setup is the beginning of the wedge pattern, representing a major support level and the structural low before the second leg formed. Strategy Recommendations • Entry Points: Monitor price action closely around the 160 resistance zone. Rejection at this level would strongly support the double top scenario. • Pullback Entry: If a wedge blow-off or initial decline occurs, consider entering short positions during pullbacks to the EMAs, especially as the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA. • Stop-Loss Management: Use a trailing stop to protect profits as the price moves toward target levels. Adjust stop-loss levels after pullbacks, particularly after penetration of the 150 zone. • Second Entry Opportunity: Look for a second short entry after pullbacks to the EMAs to strengthen your position. The JPY/USD pair offers a compelling setup for a major trend reversal, supported by clear technical signals. The current price action suggests a second leg of the double top is forming, and traders should remain vigilant around the 160 resistance zone. With the 150 zone as the initial target and the wedge’s starting point as the final target, traders can capitalize on multiple opportunities by combining pullback entries, stop-loss adjustments, and trailing stops to effectively manage risk and maximize potential gains.
Short
by OWLINGOLD
Weekly FOREX Forecast Jan 13, 2025This is an outlook for the week of Jan 13-17th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD CAD, USDCAD CHF, USDCHF JPY, USDJPY The USD is still strong, so no reason to sell in the near term. With price at Monthly and Weekly Supply levels, we have to proceed with caution in the near term. The bias is still bullish until the market gives us a HTF bearish break of structure. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 157.90 Why we likeit: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.23% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 158.19 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 157.34 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY - Short TradeMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range. But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
USDJPY POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on USDJPY The price broke out of a strong intraday resistance zone, although the Trend remains bullish and the set Trendline keeps the price on the higher part of the market. The price is developing, and I am waiting for a retest of the previously broken resistance and used as support before I look for a LONG trade. A BUY opportunity is at the top above the weekly Low at 1.04480. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Trade Responsibly! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by Adefxc
U.S Dollar / Japanese Yen 1.hHello again, Dear friends, according to our previous discussion, I have analyzed the 1-hour chart of the Japanese Yen and created a simple and clear chart for you. Dear friends, this chart clearly shows the beautiful movements of the Yen, which I will explain to you. In the first structure, you see that after the BOS, it executes a structure for a Hunter correction. Then it moves quickly towards the Order Block Disgional. Since there wasn't enough liquidity in this Order Block, it continues its downward movement to the Order Block Extreme, and after providing an upward confirmation, it becomes confirmed. Then, with a quick drop to the Order Block Single Candle, it again moves up to BOS. This scenario is repeated in the daily and weekly time frames as well. Now we have a 1-hour Order Block Extreme. You need to get confirmation in the 5-minute time frame; that is, have a CHOCH in the 5 minutes and then proceed with a quick entry and use a stop-loss from the 1-hour time frame to achieve BOS. How beautiful and clear this chart is! If you reach this chart along the way, I recommend using the 5-minute structure. Stay profitable and stable! There is always an opportunity for trading. Rushing destroys the position, while acting slowly misses the opportunity... so be careful. Fereydoon Bahrami "A retail trader in the Wall Street trading Center (Forex)."
Long
by fereydoon1199
USDJPY SHORTUSDJPY: Rising Wedge Consolidation with Bearish Momentum Building Market Overview: USDJPY has been moving within a large Rising Wedge pattern on the Daily timeframe, currently consolidating near the top. We are observing Daily RSI divergence, signaling potential exhaustion at these elevated levels. The 4H intermediate structure has broken below the 50 SMA, indicating early signs of bearish momentum. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Momentum Building: • The rejection at the top of the wedge coincides with increased volatility, as shown by the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the anticipated downward move may have already begun. • Confirmation of bearish momentum on lower timeframes (LTF) is required for precise entry into this move, targeting the 153-154 region. 2. Weekly Perspective: • USDJPY has recently broken out of a long-term downward trendline on the Weekly chart, marking a shift in macro sentiment. • This pullback is setting up for a potential Higher Low (HL) on the Daily timeframe, creating a base for a continuation move beyond 158. 3. Fibonacci Confluence: • The anticipated downward move aligns with the 0.5-0.618 retracement of the larger upward move—a strong area for liquidity gathering and a potential bullish HL formation on the higher timeframes. 4. 4H Bullish Order Block: • The 4H bullish order block near the retracement zone adds further confluence as a key area to watch for reversal and liquidity accumulation. Trading Plan: • Current Focus: Await confirmation of bearish momentum on LTF for a high-probability entry into the pullback. • Target Zone: 153-154 region, aligning with the Rising Wedge breakdown and retracement levels. • Larger Trend: The pullback is viewed as part of a macro bullish structure, setting up for a significant continuation move beyond 158 in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for precise entry signals as we monitor bearish momentum and key levels for validation. Trade with discipline and proper risk management!
Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
USD/JPY BEARISH OPPURTUNITY Entry:157.815 TP:156.001 If you use trading patterns as part of confirmations in market direction. You will see a RISING WEDGE PATTERN. This pattern is a BEARISH PATTERN. Now what we want to see is a break of the trend line. Then a nice retest to the trend and an nice beautiful drop.. Take a look at the chart you will see we already have the break of the trend line and the retest now we will be seeing an beautiful drop .. Once price breaks the 157.546 we will we market continue to drop.. Its CEEJAY TRADES feel free to click my profile .
by CEEJAYYTRADES
2
USDJPY ANALYSIS IS READY TO FLY MUST READ THE CAPTION The chart for USD/JPY shows the following: 1. Timeframe: 1-hour chart. 2. Key Levels: Target Zone: Around 159.100, indicating a potential bullish target. Current Price: Approximately 157.933 (Sell) and 157.946 (Buy). Stop Loss: Positioned near 157.226 to manage downside risk. 3. Technical Analysis: Pattern: A potential rounding top or consolidation phase before a breakout. Scenarios: Two possible bullish outcomes are shown with arrows: A breakout above the resistance zone, aiming for the target zone (159.100). A retracement followed by a bullish move. Key Support Levels: 157.692 and below, which could act as critical zones to watch. 4. Moving Average: A moving average (possibly the 200 EMA) provides additional support near the stop-loss level. 5. Trading Idea: Buy opportunities are highlighted with strict risk management via the stop-loss placement. The chart suggests bullish momentum but emphasizes careful monitoring of price action near key levels.
Short
by Forex_Vip_Signals
Japan's Economic Outlook: Steady Progress Amid UncertaintiesHello, FX:USDJPY will see downside as Japanese economic data remain positive, with recovery ongoing. The BOJ's outlook appears accurate, as the economy continues to progress steadily. Although uncertainties persist, they are unlikely to prevent the BOJ from raising rates in the future. The current account surplus is now Y3.3525 trillion, with a Y2.6911 trillion surplus anticipated. December bank loans increased by 3.1% year-on-year, following rises of 2.9% in November and 2.6% in October. Robust bank loans indicate that Japan Inc is progressing smoothly. There are uncertainties regarding new US Trump administration policies in 2025. Nonetheless, the domestic economy is stable, with trade with the US being the only question. This will be a solid bearish opportunity that will unfold shortly! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Short
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
USD/JPY BULLISH TREND LETS SEE🚨 USD/JPY Update – Bullish Outlook 🚨 Traders, USD/JPY is showing strong bullish potential! Here’s the breakdown: 🔑 Bullish Zone: We’re looking for a bullish move if the price reaches 158.10. This could be a great entry point for the upside momentum. 📈 Technical Target: The main target for USD/JPY is 161.00, where we anticipate significant resistance. Keep an eye on this level for possible take-profit or further opportunities. 🔒 Support Zone: The immediate support is at 157.50, a key level where the price could potentially bounce if there's a pullback. 🔼 Resistance Zone: Watch out for 159.00 as it may act as the next hurdle before heading towards our target.
Long
by ALBERTGOLDHUNTER
14