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USD/JPY eyes Bank of Japan meetingThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 153.25, at the time of writing, down 0.07% on the day. The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to maintain policy settings, including its benchmark rate at 0.25%. The shock result from Sunday’s general election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority, will means weeks of political uncertainty. The yen weakened to a three-month low after the election but that won’t be enough to prod the BoJ to raise interest rates on Thursday. The BoJ has said in the past that it would not make any rate moves during times of uncertainty, and between the political crisis in Japan and the tight election campaign in the US, it’s a sure bet that policymakers will wait before adjusting rates. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ’s quarterly inflation and growth reports, which will be released at the meeting. The BoJ has said that it will hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with these projections, so these projections could provide clues about the BoJ’s future rate path. Governor Ueda holds a press conference after the meeting, and a reference to the falling yen could signal plans for a rate hike or intervention in the currency markets in the near term. In the US, first-estimate GDP in the third quarter rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in Q2 and below the estimate of 3.0%. This points to a strong economy which has been boosted by robust consumer spending. The Federal Reserve meets on Nov. 7 and the markets have widely priced in a 25-basis point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 153.33. The next support line is 152.80 153.92 and 154.45 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USDJPY - Yen will continue to strengthen?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zone and buy in those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. The Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment for October, continuing to believe that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace. However, it downgraded its outlook on production, indicating that output might be facing challenges and may struggle to grow significantly. Meanwhile, Japan’s Economy Minister, Akazawa, stated that currency movements are being closely monitored, and proposed policies from other parties will be reviewed. He also noted that a weaker yen could lead to a decrease in income and private consumption, particularly if wage growth is insufficient. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 103 out of 111 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in November and December of this year, bringing the rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Additionally, 74 out of 96 surveyed economists predict that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate will drop to 3% to 3.25% or higher by the end of 2025. A recent report from CIBC suggests that a 3% growth in U.S. GDP is unlikely to overheat the economy. CIBC believes that the U.S. economy can sustain growth at this rate while continuing its rate-cutting cycle. The report shows that U.S. economic growth has reached 2.8%, slightly below analysts’ 3% expectation. Nonetheless, the details reflect a robust economic performance, with domestic consumption offsetting the negative effects of net trade. CIBC analysts argue that 3% growth should be seen as a new measure of economic capacity rather than a sign of overheating. They point to improvements in productivity and cooling labor markets and inflation, asserting that
Long
by Ali_PSND
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit., Entry: 152.83 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 153.54 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 151.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
JPY on track for its worst monthly performance in 8 years. USD/JPY closed higher at 153.29 (+0.65%), up 6.70% in October, putting the JPY on track for its worst monthly performance in 8 years (since November 2016). The slide in the JPY accelerated yesterday after the LDP/ Komeito ruling coalition lost its lower house majority for the first time since 2009. There are signs that Ishiba will be able to cobble together an LDP-led minority government, which would be the first occurrence of this since WW2. This month's sell-off in the JPY increases the chances that the BOJ may push back against recent JPY weakness at its meeting on Thursday. While USD/JPY holds above an important band of support at 152.00/150.00 further gains appear likely.
Long
by IG_com
USDJPY Will Fall! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 153.142. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 147.275 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental FactUSDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental Factors (31/10/2024) Introduction In today's trading session on October 31, 2024, USDJPY appears to carry a slightly bearish bias due to various fundamental drivers impacting both the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). This article provides a detailed analysis of USDJPY, focusing on the major economic and geopolitical factors contributing to the bearish outlook. By considering both macroeconomic trends and the latest technical indicators, traders can better navigate potential setups for the USDJPY pair. Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today 1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve has recently hinted at maintaining a dovish stance, signaling a potential pause on interest rate hikes. This policy outlook is generally bearish for the USD, as lower interest rates reduce the Dollar’s appeal to investors seeking yield. As a result, the USD could experience downward pressure against the Japanese Yen, contributing to a slight bearish bias for USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan's Commitment to Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has gradually shown signs of flexibility in its yield curve control policy, which could strengthen the Yen. Any indication of a potential shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy is generally supportive for JPY, as it attracts investors looking for stability in an uncertain global environment. This shift increases the possibility of a bearish trend in USDJPY. 3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand - The recent volatility in US Treasury yields has led to fluctuating demand for USD-denominated assets. Lower yields often make the Dollar less attractive, especially in comparison to the Yen, which is considered a traditional safe haven. With a potential decline in yields, demand for USD could weaken, encouraging investors to turn toward JPY and reinforcing the slight bearish outlook for USDJPY. 4. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Sentiment - The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to higher risk aversion in the markets. In times of heightened uncertainty, the Yen benefits as a safe-haven currency. This risk-off sentiment may draw investors to JPY, increasing its strength against USD and creating bearish pressure on the USDJPY pair. 5. Japanese Economic Data - Stronger-than-expected Japanese economic data, including stable GDP growth and improved manufacturing output, have added positive momentum to the Yen. These indicators reflect Japan’s gradual recovery, making the Yen more attractive and adding pressure on USDJPY from the Japanese side. Technical Analysis of USDJPY (31/10/2024) From a technical perspective, USDJPY trades below its 50-day moving average, a signal commonly associated with bearish trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hovers near the 40 level, suggesting potential downside momentum. Key support levels around 147.50 and resistance near 150.00 should be monitored. Key Support: 147.50 Key Resistance: 150.00 Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for 31/10/2024 Given today’s fundamentals and technical conditions, USDJPY exhibits a slightly bearish bias. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, the BOJ’s gradual policy adjustments, and risk aversion in global markets are all contributing to the current outlook. However, traders should remain attentive to any unexpected shifts in global economic data or central bank announcements. For those watching the USDJPY today, focusing on these fundamental drivers and key support levels can provide valuable insights for trading the pair amid a slightly bearish sentiment. SEO-Keywords: #USDJPYForecast #ForexAnalysis #USDToday #JapaneseYen #CurrencyMarket #USDJPYOutlook #BearishUSDJPY #TradingUSDJPY #ForexFundamentals
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: Can the 152.89 Support Level Sustain the Recovery?Despite a slight rebound following the BoJ's decision, the Japanese Yen (JPY) still faces multiple challenges. The USD/JPY pair temporarily dipped below 153, but technical indicators suggest that its long-term upward trend remains intact. The combination of the BoJ's loose monetary policy and the possibility that the Fed may soon pause rate hikes continues to support the USD. The technical chart shows strong support at 152.89, acting as a solid anchor to potentially halt further declines in the pair and pave the way for a short-term recovery. However, if resistance at 153.53 is encountered, prices may adjust back to the 153.07 support zone before resuming the upward trend. Traders should keep an eye on these support and resistance levels to identify short-term trading opportunities.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USD/ JPY ! 10/ 28 ! SELL resistance ! GAP USD/ JPY trend forecast October 28, 2024 The Japanese Yen (JPY) recovers about 50 pips from a three-month low against the USD, though gains are limited amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate hike plans and the ruling coalition’s recent loss of its parliamentary majority. Additionally, a positive risk sentiment continues to weigh on the safe-haven JPY. At the beginning of the week, the price created a GAP to increase - need to adjust to fill the GAP. There is a slight resistance zone - in the context of not much important news today. /// SELL USDJPY : zone 153.250 - 153.550 SL: 153.850 TP: 60 - 100 - 250 pips (151.050) Safe and profitable trading
Short
by Moon-ForexAcademy
2
USD/JPY schould the bears take their chance ? In recent weeks, we’ve seen a massive bullish movement. I believe many have been anticipating a bearish pullback or pivot. The market has now entered my daily supply zone, with indicators suggesting a potential bearish move ahead. Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, I don’t see a supply zone that meets my criteria when looking to the left. I’ll wait for the market to establish a current supply zone, which could present an entry opportunity soon. What I’m looking for now is a clear rejection favoring the bears to confirm a strong bearish move.
Short
by Glitchz_99
4
Traditional markets quiet, bitcoin making movesIt’s been relatively calm in traditional markets. Currencies are flat, stocks are steady, and commodities are consolidating. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are heating up, with Bitcoin making a push back towards its record high from earlier this year. Gold is holding just under record highs, and oil is consolidating after another sharp drop at the start of the week—two very different stories in the commodities space. On Tuesday, Japan’s Akazawa commented on the yen’s weakness, noting that authorities are closely monitoring the political landscape. Additionally, reports indicate Japan’s Prime Minister may seek support from the opposition Democratic Party to form a partial coalition. In the Eurozone, German consumer confidence showed strength, while in the UK, mortgage approvals reached their highest level since the fallout from the mini-budget of 2022. Looking ahead, key releases include the Bank of Canada’s MPR, Canadian wholesale sales, the U.S. goods trade balance, Case-Shiller house prices, JOLTS job openings, and consumer confidence data. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY at Key Support: Bullish Momentum with Possible CorrectioUSD/JPY is currently sitting at a strong support level that has proven its significance in the past. Although the price previously broke through this level with strong momentum, it has since lost steam. The overall trend and outlook still indicate a potential continuation of the bullish movement. However, be mindful of the possibility of a correction. If you observe strong upward momentum, you may consider joining the uptrend, targeting previous high (161.70) levels as indicated on the chart.
by Charts_M7M
USD/JPY Analysis for October 28, 2024: Bearish Bias Amid Rate !Introduction The USD/JPY pair faces a potential bearish bias today, October 28, 2024, as market sentiment and fundamental factors weigh on the US Dollar. Below is a detailed analysis of the USD/JPY currency pair, highlighting key economic data, monetary policy signals, and global risk appetite, all of which suggest a downward tilt in USD/JPY for the day. Key Drivers of Bearish Bias in USD/JPY 1. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Recent Federal Reserve commentary has created a dovish outlook, signaling a likely pause in interest rate hikes. This expectation comes amid signs of slowing US economic momentum, specifically within the labor market and consumer spending. - Market participants are increasingly factoring in lower yields on US Treasury bonds, reducing the demand for the USD as investors seek higher returns elsewhere. A weaker dollar directly impacts USD/JPY, pressuring it downward as Japanese yen demand remains steady. 2. Japanese Yen as a Safe-Haven - The Japanese yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, often appreciates during times of economic uncertainty or lower US Dollar strength. Current global geopolitical concerns and risk aversion have pushed some investors back into the yen, enhancing its value against a softening USD. - Additionally, with Japan's recent stability in inflation and the Bank of Japan’s commitment to policy balance, the JPY could see support as the yen maintains strength, despite the BoJ’s dovish stance in recent years. 3. US Economic Data Weakness - Last week, softer-than-expected data in the US labor market and consumer confidence metrics suggested a slowing economy. With potential headwinds in these key areas, investors may be viewing USD as overvalued at current levels, leading to a weakening of USD/JPY. - The recent dip in the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) further underscores concerns of economic slowdown, diminishing demand for the USD and supporting bearish pressure on USD/JPY. 4. Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels - Support Level: Key support for USD/JPY is currently at 148.50. A move below this level could accelerate bearish momentum for USD/JPY. - Resistance Level: Resistance around 150.00 remains a psychological barrier for the pair. Failing to break this level strengthens the bearish case as sellers look to capitalize on a potential reversal. - Moving averages and RSI indicators also show signs of bearish divergence, suggesting that downside potential is present in the short term. 5. Broader Global Risk Sentiment - Broader market sentiment remains cautious, with some aversion to riskier assets as investors shift focus to more stable options like the yen. With China’s economic recovery wavering and other global uncertainties affecting investor sentiment, a “risk-off” environment typically benefits the yen while weakening USD/JPY. Conclusion Given these combined factors, USD/JPY could face a slight bearish bias today, pressured by a dovish Fed outlook, weak US economic data, and steady yen demand. Monitoring global risk sentiment and economic data releases will be essential for traders, as any shifts could further define USD/JPY’s direction in the coming sessions. --- SEO Keywords for TradingView: 1. USD/JPY forecast 2. USD/JPY today 3. Japanese Yen analysis 4. US Dollar bearish outlook 5. Federal Reserve impact on USD/JPY 6. forex trading USD/JPY 7. USD/JPY support and resistance 8. USD/JPY technical analysis 9. safe-haven currency yen
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Is Going Up! Long! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 151.777. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 153.232 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
3
USDJPY: Correction Phase Targets Key Resistance at 153.846 USDJPY is currently undergoing a corrective rise after yesterday's decline. While the downtrend is still in play, buyers are showing strength as the previous drop appears to be a trend correction, filling the price gap, just as anticipated in my previous forecast. From a longer-term perspective, USDJPY remains above the active levels of the EMA 34 and 89. The immediate target is set at the resistance level of 153.846, with potential for further gains if this resistance is broken, turning it into new support for USDJPY.
by Pierce_Bowers