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USDJPY_109 2024.11.01 03:13:04 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.005 SL: 152.207 Entry Price: 152.321 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Undecided Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Same ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, I will provide separate assessments for short-term and long-term price movements of the USD/JPY currency pair. **Short-term analysis (next few days to a week):** * The Japanese Yen has strengthened after the BoJ's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, which may lead to a continuation of this trend in the short term. * The USD/JPY price is currently fluctuating between a support line and a resistance barrier, indicating a potential breakout or consolidation. * Given the recent highs and the yen's subsequent strengthening, I expect the USD/JPY price to **go down** in the short term, potentially testing the support line of the bullish channel. **Long-term analysis (next few weeks to months):** * The ongoing uncertainty over potential further rate hikes by the BoJ and the yen's recent strengthening may lead to a more significant correction in the USD/JPY pair. * The technical analysis using Elliott Wave theory suggests that the pair is at a critical juncture, which may indicate a potential reversal or continuation of the trend. * Considering the BoJ's decision to maintain current policy settings and the yen's recent gains, I expect the USD/JPY price to **stay the same** or potentially **go down** in the long term, as the yen's strengthening may continue to influence the pair. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new market data and events become available. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the analysis, here are my conclusions: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The price is expected to go down, with a potential test of the support area near the 151.55 level. * However, technical indicators suggest a potential reversal and continuation of the current upward correction, which could lead to a rebound. * Overall, the short-term trend is uncertain and may experience consolidation. **Long-term (next few months to a year):** * The price is expected to stay the same or fluctuate within a range, with forecasts suggesting a range between ¥146 and ¥150 until the end of 2024. * Some analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US dollar against the yen, with a potential close at ¥145.555 in December. **Long-term (next few years):** * The price is expected to go up, with forecasts indicating a gradual strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. * The pair may rise to ¥173–¥179 by 2025 and could break above ¥220 by the end of the decade. Please note that these conclusions are based on the analysis of the provided data and should not be considered as investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and forecasts are subject to uncertainty. Result: ST=Down LT=Same Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided data, I will analyze the USD/JPY pair's price movement and provide a forecast for both short-term and long-term. **Short-term Analysis (next few days to a week)** * The pair is currently under bearish pressure, and the BoJ's decision to maintain its interest rate at 0.25% has added to the downward momentum. * The price is falling towards 152.00, and the forecasts suggest a continuation of this decline. * The solid resistance barrier at 153.65 is likely to hold, and the pair may struggle to break through this level in the short term. **Short-term Forecast:** Down **Long-term Analysis (next few weeks to months)** * The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing significant fluctuations, and the recent high of 153.30 was driven by the Japanese election results. * The pair is currently confined between the support line of a bullish channel and the resistance barrier at 153.65. * Although the BoJ's decision has added to the bearish momentum, the long-term trend is still bullish, and the pair may eventually break through the resistance barrier. **Long-term Forecast:** Up In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term due to the bearish momentum and the BoJ's decision. However, in the long term, the pair is expected to break through the resistance barrier and continue its upward trend. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854. Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022. How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025. The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913 1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
0.00652 on friday Current Price: 0.00657 USD per JPY Target Price (Friday, November 3, 2024): 0.00652 USD per JPY Stop Loss: 0.00661 USD per JPY (above recent resistance level) Entry: Consider entering around 0.00657, the current price level. BoJ Meeting: The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on October 31 could maintain or intensify the dovish stance, which may weaken JPY as the USD retains demand from ongoing global economic uncertainties. U.S. Dollar Strength: The USD remains supported by expectations of stable Fed policy, adding pressure on JPY/USD.
Short
by cervicekkarel
USDJPY - Bearish TrendCurrently, USD/JPY is showing potential bearish momentum. A key level to watch is the previous higher low; a break below this level would confirm a bearish reversal. Additionally, there is a divergence present on the chart, with the price making higher highs while the RSI shows lower highs. This discrepancy indicates weakening bullish strength, suggesting that sellers may gain control. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
Short
by gulraizali90
USDJPY needs to pay attention to the BOJ meeting on ThursdayThe Bank of Japan will make a decision on interest rates this Thursday and the market currently expects the bank to leave interest rates unchanged. At about 10:00 Hanoi time on October 31 (Thursday), the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision. As fears of a recession in the US ease, the Bank of Japan may signal that its policy outlook will be less dovish. Recent data shows that Japan's core inflation remains under upward pressure, but the Bank of Japan will likely continue its "wait-and-see" approach at this week's meeting. The market will closely monitor the quarterly outlook report, as well as changes in the Bank of Japan's assessment of risks to the US economy and the recent depreciation of the yen. Technically, after being limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, OANDA:USDJPY has dropped to get more support from the upper edge of the price channel. Along with that, maintaining price activity above the 0.618% Fibonacci level will be a positive signal for the uptrend in the near future. Currently, USD/JPY is likely to test the 154.525 level in the short term, more so than the 155.222 level with an upward trend from the near-term price channel. However, the room for USD/JPY's price increase is no longer too wide as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching the overbought level, signaling corrections to occur. But as long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, it still has an uptrend in the short term, and as long as it stays in the price channel and maintains price activity above EMA21, it still has an uptrend in the medium to long term. The current price drops should be considered a short-term correction without changing the main trend. In the immediate future, the uptrend of USD/JPY will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 153.365 – 151.866 Resistance: 154.525 – 155.22 2
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY Long Term Analysis (4H Chart)Technical Analysis Summary USD/USD TREND ANALYSIS We have 2 Upward trends in Green color (Long Term and Short Term) Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend). FUTURE PREDICTIONS We have 1 resistance and 1 support levels that I have mentioned above in the long term. I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS). White Levels are stop losses or levels and trends that were respected from the past. Yellow Levels are tighter stop losses and generally will be used after trade is in small profit to start lowering the loss in case trade goes against us. Good luck everyone, stay safe! If you need help ​don't hesitate to send me a message or comment If you find this content beneficial, please don't forget to LIKE and FOLLOW Trading Involves High Risk Not Financial Advice
Long
by husseindergham
2
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen. Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little chance of a rate cuts when the Fed meets on November 6, just a day after the U.S. election. Another key factor in the dollar’s rise is what’s being called the “Trump Trade” — a bet on Donald Trump's potential re-election. Should Trump secure victory and the Republicans retain control of Congress, his policies are expected to drive up the U.S. deficit and reignite inflation.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY Targets Higher Ground as Triangle Pattern BreaksTechnical Analysis In the 1-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair shows bullish momentum as the dollar continues to strengthen against the yen. The breakout above the triangle pattern at 153.133 signals renewed buyer interest and increased upward pressure, pushing the pair towards its recent high of 153.370. A decisive break above this level would further open the path to higher targets, including 153.539, 153.754, and ultimately 153.991. This final resistance aligns closely with the apex of the former triangle pattern, making it a key target for bullish traders. Conversely, the bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price falls below the support level at 152.749. Key Events to Watch This week, the USD/JPY pair faces several significant economic events. In Japan, Tuesday's unemployment report indicated a decline in the unemployment rate, providing slight relief to the yen amid broader weakness following political uncertainties. Looking ahead, investor attention will shift to US economic indicators, particularly the Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings report set for release later today.
Long
by Errante
USDJPY Bearish Bias on October 29, 2024: Fundamental Analysis !USDJPY Bearish Bias on October 29, 2024: Fundamental Analysis and Key Market Drivers Overview: USDJPY Daily Analysis with Slight Bearish Bias on 29/10/2024 As of October 29, 2024, the USDJPY (U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen) currency pair leans toward a bearish bias, driven by a range of economic factors and shifting market sentiment. The Japanese Yen, often considered a safe-haven currency, appears set for gains as investor risk appetite remains cautious. In this analysis, we’ll break down the primary drivers of a bearish USDJPY outlook and explore what this could mean for traders today. Key Drivers for USDJPY Bearish Bias 1. Dovish Stance from the Federal Reserve - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent statements have indicated a more dovish tone, with Chair Jerome Powell suggesting a pause in rate hikes as the U.S. economy faces slower growth and moderating inflation. - As the Fed scales back aggressive tightening, demand for the USD could soften, giving way to downward pressure on USDJPY. 2. Economic Resilience in Japan - Japan’s latest economic indicators, including rising exports and steady growth in industrial output, are showing signs of resilience. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its accommodative policies, yet recent remarks hint at a more balanced approach, adding stability to the JPY. - With the Japanese economy performing well, the Yen is gaining support, especially against a potentially weaker USD. 3. Risk-Off Sentiment in Global Markets - USDJPY typically reacts to shifts in risk sentiment, as the Yen benefits from safe-haven flows. In today’s market, concerns over geopolitical risks and potential global economic slowdown are driving investors to seek safer assets. - This risk-off environment is reducing demand for USD-denominated assets while increasing interest in JPY, putting additional bearish pressure on USDJPY. 4. U.S. Dollar Weakness Amidst Lower Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back as the Fed pauses its rate hikes. Lower yields tend to weaken the appeal of the USD compared to safe-haven currencies like the Yen. - This yield differential further supports a bearish USDJPY outlook, as lower Treasury returns make the USD less attractive in the FX market. Technical Analysis of USDJPY On the technical front, USDJPY is approaching a support zone near 148.00, with resistance around the 149.80 level. If the bearish bias continues and the pair falls below this support, we could see USDJPY trend lower, making this an important level to watch. Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook on October 29, 2024 Today’s fundamental and market conditions suggest a bearish bias for USDJPY. A dovish Fed, Japan’s economic resilience, cautious market sentiment, and lower U.S. Treasury yields are all factors likely to favor the Yen over the Dollar. Traders should monitor key support levels and any shifts in risk sentiment, as these could impact USDJPY’s trend throughout the day. --- Tags: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, Japanese Yen outlook, Forex market trends, USDJPY bearish trend, Federal Reserve impact on USD, USDJPY technical levels, Forex trading insights, October 2024 USDJPY
Short
by PERFECT_MFG