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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

Trade Friction and Fed Pressure Lift Japanese YenThe Japanese yen strengthened to approximately 140.5 per dollar on Tuesday, marking its strongest level in seven months, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened global trade tensions and concerns over U.S. economic stability. Market sentiment declined following stalled trade talks, with China resisting President Trump's tariff demands. Confidence further eroded after Trump renewed calls to remove Fed Chair Powell over delayed rate cuts. Attention now turns to the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, where rates are likely to remain at 0.5%, though the central bank may lower its growth forecast due to mounting external pressures. Key resistance is at 142.00, with further levels at 144.00 and 145.90. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
USD/JPY in Free Fall: What’s Behind the Break Below 140?🔍 Technical Analysis – USD/JPY The weekly chart shows a sharp rejection in the macro zone between 155–158, where strong supply is present (highlighted in red). After brushing historical highs, USD/JPY experienced a vertical drop down to 140, decisively breaking through the key zone at 148–146. Price has now broken the weekly structure and is approaching an area that previously triggered significant rallies (blue zone between 138–141). Monthly support is in danger, with the RSI deeply in oversold territory, but no clear reversal signals just yet. 📊 COT Report – USD Index Asset Managers: Slight recovery on long positions, but still in neutral territory. Leverage Money: Increasing net shorts, indicating speculative bets against the dollar. The divergence between the falling USD Index and speculative positions confirms a growing lack of confidence in the greenback. 📊 COT Report – JPY Futures Asset Managers: Strong increase in long positions on the yen since December 2024. Leverage Money: Reinforcing long bias since February 2025. This confirms that institutional players are accumulating yen, possibly anticipating BoJ interventions or a broader flight-to-safety. 💥 Trade Outlook USD/JPY is in full bearish breakout mode. If the 140 level breaks decisively, the next technical targets are: 137.00 → historical mid-level support 134.00 → base of the 2023 structure Keep an eye on the RSI: a bullish divergence with strong volume could trigger a technical rebound. But as long as the overall sentiment remains strongly risk-off, every rally is a selling opportunity.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Yen surges to five-month high as US dollar under pressureThe Japanese yen came flying out of the gates on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.00, down 0.79%. Earlier the yen strengthened to 140.47, its strongest level since Sep. 2024. The US dollar has posted losses against the major currencies on Monday, including against the yen. Investors gave the US dollar a thumbs down after President Trump's top economic advisor said that Trump was considering the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been increasingly critical of Powell for not lowering interest rates and said last week that "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough". Trump fired his latest salvo after Powell said that US tariffs would raise inflation and that the Fed could find itself having to balance keeping a lid on inflation and supporting economic growth. Powell added that tariffs are "likely to move us further away from our goals". Powell has insisted that he isn't going anywhere and will serve until the end of his term in May 2026. Can Trump legally fire Powell? That is a complicated legal question, but the markets aren't waiting for an answer and the US dollar has retreated. Trump's attacks on Powell threaten the independence of the US central bank and is eroding confidence in the US dollar. The dollar is also under pressure from Trump's tariff policy, which has dampened the confidence of foreign investors. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 141.16. Below, there is support at 140.14. There is resistance at 142.62 and 143.64
by OANDA
USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis🟦 USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis (April 21, 2025) 📊 Technical Analysis Current Price: ~140.72 Structure: Descending channel Pattern: Bullish flag within a broader downtrend Key Zones: Support Zone: 139.70 – 140.00 (blue zone) Demand Zone: 137.10 – 137.55 (strong support below) Resistance Levels: 145.17 (intermediate resistance) 147.43 – 147.47 (major supply) 149.70 – 150.00 (psychological + previous swing high) Setup: Price is at the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing support. Reversal zone aligns with a previous demand area + lower trendline support. If bulls defend this zone, price may: Rebound toward 145.17 Break short-term trendline resistance Extend toward 147.43 Invalidation: A clean break below 139.70 could send price toward 137.10 Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for long trades from current level with stops below the blue zone and TP near 147.4–150 🌐 Fundamental Outlook 🔸 USD Side (Bearish to Neutral): Fed likely to pause or cut rates soon due to cooling inflation. Weakness in U.S. CPI and softer economic indicators weighing on dollar strength. Rising U.S. debt and global de-dollarization sentiment impacting USD outlook. 🔸 JPY Side (Weakening): BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy with no rate hike in sight. Weak yen has sparked verbal intervention risk, but actual BOJ action remains unlikely near-term. JPY typically strengthens during risk-off, but with markets stabilizing, appetite for carry trades could weaken JPY further. 🔸 Geopolitics: Escalation in Middle East could lead to safe haven flows into JPY, but so far minimal impact. If tensions rise, JPY may temporarily strengthen. 🧠 Conclusion: Price at key support within a falling channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming with upside targets at 145.17 and 147.47, especially if fundamentals align with a weakening USD and no BOJ surprises.
Long
by FXNEWSCLUB
Bullish bounce off major support level?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 140.82 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 137.37 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 100% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 144.77 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Complete Mapping Analysis — USDJPY (H1 Chart)Strategy Focus: Elliott Wave (Impulse) + AO Divergence + Fibonacci Extensions 🔍 1. Current Wave Structure (Elliott Wave Count) You’ve identified: A completed Wave 3 (impulse). A completed or nearly completed Wave 4 correction. Now projecting Wave 5 to complete the 5-wave impulse. Substructure breakdown: Wave 1-2: Clean impulse and pullback. Wave 3: Strong rally with AO confirming higher momentum peaks. Wave 4: Corrective move, breaking below the internal trendline (initial break), signaling potential end of correction. Wave 5 (projected): Final push upward to complete the motive wave. 📊 2. Fibonacci Extension Targets From Wave 0–3 and Wave 4 retracement: 2.618 extension: ~146.50 2.886 extension: ~146.78 4.236 extension: ~148.22 (Aggressive top for a possible extended fifth) These are possible Wave 5 termination zones. Confluence with previous supply zones increases likelihood of reversal here. 📉 3. Momentum Confirmation — Awesome Oscillator (AO) You're watching for: Bearish Divergence on AO: Wave 3 had a strong momentum peak. Expect Wave 5 to push higher in price, but AO shows a lower high, signaling weakening momentum. This aligns with classic Wave 5 behavior — price extension with momentum exhaustion. 🧭 4. Entry Strategy Setup: Long entry at Wave 4 bottom. Entry trigger: Initial break → minor pullback → bullish confirmation candle. AO: Turns green after red bars = first sign of momentum recovery. Optional confirmation: Break of short-term structure high (micro Wave 1 in Wave 5). 🎯 5. Take Profit Plan Layered take-profit strategy based on Fibonacci and AO: Target Zone Price Area Action TP1 (Safe) ~1.618 (145.44–145.72) Take partial profit (30–50%) TP2 (Primary) ~2.618 (146.50) Secure majority of profit (80%) TP3 (Max/Stretch) ~4.236 (148.22) Optional final push / runner 🛡 6. Stop Loss Strategy SL placement: Below Wave (4) low (~143.73 zone) or below structure break. Use structure break or strong bearish engulfing as a reason to exit early if momentum fails. ⚠️ 7. Divergence & Reversal Monitoring Once price enters your TP2–TP3 zone: Look for: AO divergence (price high vs. AO lower high). Bearish engulfing candles or microstructure breaks. Weak volume or extended wick rejection. These may indicate Wave 5 completion and the start of Wave A (correction) or a reversal. 🔄 8. Next Play After Wave 5 Completes If divergence confirms and reversal begins: Map corrective structure (ABC). Short from: Break of rising wedge/trendline. AO flips red + break of microstructure. Target retracement: 0.382 to 0.618 retracement of the full Wave 1–5 impulse. Target zone: ~144.80 – 143.70 ✅ Summary: Strategic Flow ✅ Identify Wave 4 completion → Confirm via initial break + minor pullback. ✅ Long entry for Wave 5 → Enter on bullish candle or structural break. ✅ Track AO → Expect divergence at Wave 5 peak. ✅ Use Fibonacci for TP zones. ✅ Exit with confirmation of divergence and reversal signs. ✅ Option to reverse short post-Wave 5.
Long
by Candydreamz
Can USD/JPY hold THIS key support after a mixed NFP report? The US dollar traded mixed shortly after the NFP was released, as risk-on sentiment remained the prevailing trend. As index futures rose further, commodity dollars extended their gains against the greenback, while the USD/JPY attempted to find support around the key 144.00 - 144.50 area. This zone was resistance in the past so let's see if the UJ will be able to rebound from here later in the session, and in early next week. NFP comes in stronger, but... The nonfarm payrolls data “beat” forecasts, with a headline print of 177K vs. 138K eyed. But data for March was revised lower to 185K rom 228K. Revisions to prior two months have taken out 58K from initial estimates. Taken together, this is hardly a beat. But the good news was that full-time employment rose sharply. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was unchanged at 4.2%. On the inflation side of things, average earnings came in slightly lower than expected, rising 0.2% on a month-over-month basis, compared with 0.3% expected. Nothing to get too excited over, but potentially good news as far as inflation is concerned – especially after we saw a slightly weaker Core PCE Price Index in mid-week. NFP was never going to matter much The market’s focus is on trade war and trade negotiations. We were never going to see any wild market reactions, and so it has so far proved. The US dollar initially spiked then quickly returned to pre-NFP levels. Gold fell, and index futures added onto earlier gains. Up next: ISM Services PMI on Monday and FOMC on Thursday. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
USDJPY Long Setup | Bullish Reversal from Value Area🧠 Technical Breakdown 🔹 Volume Profile Analysis High Volume Node (HVN) around 144.50–145.20 indicates strong price acceptance. Price is currently sitting on the Point of Control (POC) or near a zone with high historical transaction volume. Low Volume Area (LVA) just above this level suggests price may move upward swiftly if buyers take control. 🔹 Key Levels Entry: ~144.55 (current price where long position begins) Stop Loss: Just below 144.166 (low-volume rejection zone / support) Take Profit: ~145.183 — previous resistance level, where selling pressure appeared earlier 🔹 Structure The previous bearish correction may be coming to an end as price stabilizes at a key support cluster. The "open & close" line marks a significant balance point, with buyers stepping in to defend it. Formation of potential higher low, suggesting early signs of a bullish reversal. 🛠 Trade Setup Bias: Bullish Entry: Current price zone ~144.55 Stop Loss: Below 144.166 support Target: 145.183 (resistance) Risk:Reward: Favorable (approx. 1:2) ✅ Confluences for Long Entry Strong support zone at 144.166 High-volume accumulation zone (Volume Profile POC) Price holding above prior open/close levels Bullish rejection wicks forming at the bottom ⚠️ Watch For A break and close below 144.166 would invalidate this setup. Volatility from upcoming USD/JPY macroeconomic events — check the calendar. 🧭 Game Plan If price continues to hold above 144.366–144.50 zone and shows bullish momentum (like bullish engulfing or strong reaction candles), this setup offers a high-probability long with clean invalidation and solid upside.
Long
by PIPSPHERE_NETWORK