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ABSA GROUP LIMITED

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ABG trade ideas

Absa showing downside to come to R120 but I am not buying it LOLOk so I am taking this analysis with a pinch of salt. The JSE Top 40 is showing major upside to come. And yet the Banking sector is showing conflicting signals. I mean we have an Inv Cup and Handle. We have a strong downtrend (safety line) - confirmed We have price<20 and 200MA - Making it a high probability short. Everything about the system is saying SHORT But I am calling BS on this analysis. A part of me wants to go short just for the sake of it because the system says the next target is at R120.12. Are banks predicting a bigger short and crash than we think?
JSE:ABGShort
by Timonrosso
1
Absa: The Longer-Term ViewAbsa lost the support that sustained price from the COVID lows, now price is attempting to recover that line. At the same time we are expecting price to seek or confirm a yearly low, usually this happens when we have a failed weekly cycle, this has not happened so far. If price is rejected at re-entry attempt we can expect a swift move down to lower than R150.70. On the other hand we would know the yearly low is confirmed if price closes above the declining resistance on a monthly basis or when we have reasonable confirmation a a likely close above that line. What gives the bearish thesis a higher probability is the RSI & TSI are showing negative divergence.
JSE:ABG
by runyamhere
UPDATE: Absa Target reached at R181.95 what next?Cup and Handle formed on Absa, broke up and out of it. On 12 June I said it was imminent for a breakout to the upside, but I had NO clue how fast this thing was going to rally. And it was only a Medium Probability Trade Price>20 Price<200 Now that the price has shot up, it obviously is silly to just buy and go long without waiting for a trend confirmation signal in my case. But we do have a DOWN gap (Breakaway gap) that has a 70% chance of closing based on history. However, we need some bullishness before we do anything.
JSE:ABGLong
by Timonrosso
$JSEABG - ABSA: Heavy Resistance + Head & Shoulders = BearishSee link below for previous analysis. A look at the bigger picture of ABSA shows that the stock has a very strong resistance zone between 20371 to 21100cps. The stock has tested this zone on three occasions giving what can be viewed as a Triple Top over 7 years. Interestingly, the bull market from March 2020 has culminated in a textbook Head & Shoulders pattern which has recently been validated by a break below the neckline. The traditional Head & Shoulder price target is around 9000cps. *Price tends to fail in reaching the traditional approximation. The trend is clearly bearish.
JSE:ABGShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of ABGABSA (ABG) is one of the largest banking groups operating in Africa. It has well-established branches in 12 African countries and representative offices in at least 6 more. It offers a range of products for personal and business banking, credit cards, insurance, and asset management. Obviously, as one of the "big five" banks, ABSA has been impacted by the recession in South Africa and the generally low consumer spending in the economy. The company announced a joint venture with Patrice Motsepe's African Rainbow Energy to launch a R6,5bn renewable energy fund. ABSA is certainly a blue-chip share and is worthy of your attention. The separation from Barclays is now complete. On 31st March 2023, the company announced a BBBEE transaction that will take its Black ownership to more than 25%. In its results for the year to 31st December 2023, the company reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 0,6% and total income up 8,1%. The company's net asset value (NAV) increased by 7,3% to 16828c per share. Return on equity (EOQ) was 15,3% unchanged from the previous year. Technically, the share made a low in March 2020 and then moved sideways for the next six months before beginning a new upward trend which is continuing. We are generally very positive about the potential of banking shares on the JSE. On a P:E of 6,54 and a dividend yield (DY) of 6,92, ABSA looks cheap to us.
JSE:ABG
by PDSnetSA
ABGMy goal is to identify and convey the most relevant information that will lead to actionable opportunities. While I do publish the Tactical Trading Guide, there are times when a reading is worth highlighting due to the significance of the opportunity at hand. On 11 December, the reading for Absa Group pointed to a potential buy, with all three time frames being in favour of a near term rebound. The readings at the time is on the chart. We have since seen the share find a base and on Friday, print a massive candle which may be reflecting strong buying interest.
JSE:ABGLong
by techpers
Our opinion on the current state of ABGABSA (ABG) is one of the largest banking groups operating in Africa. It has well-established branches in 12 African countries and representative offices in at least 6 more. It offers a range of products for personal and business banking, credit cards, insurance, and asset management. Obviously, as one of the "big five" banks, ABSA has been impacted by the recession in South Africa and the generally low consumer spending in the economy. The company announced a joint venture with Patrice Motsepe's African Rainbow Energy to launch a R6,5bn renewable energy fund. ABSA is certainly a blue-chip share and is worthy of your attention. The separation from Barclays is now complete. On 31st March 2023 the company announced a BBBEE transaction that will take its Black ownership to more than 25%. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported total income up 12,8% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 2,7%. The company's net asset value (NAV) increased 9,2% to 16352c per share. The company said, "The Group’s net interest margin on average interest-bearing assets improved to 4.61% from 4.54%, reflecting higher policy rates. Gross loans and advances grew 8% to R1 300bn, while deposits rose 9% to R1 324bn". The company had to increase its bad debt provision by 68% to accommodate the difficulties which its clients are now having to contend with. The rest-of-Africa operations doubled its profit rescuing the company from the effects of a bad situation in South Africa. The results were relatively disappointing. In a voluntary update for the year to 31st December 2023 the company reported, "...our credit loss ratio is expected to exceed our through-the- cycle target range of 75 to 100 basis points. We expect high single digit growth in operating expenses, resulting in a slightly higher cost-to- income ratio than 2022's 51.2%. We expect to generate a RoE somewhat lower than 2022's 16.4%, but above the Group cost of equity of 14.5%." Technically, the share made a low in March 2020 and then moved sideways for the next six months before beginning a new upward trend which is continuing. We are generally very positive about the potential of banking shares on the JSE. On a P:E of 6,5 and a dividend yield (DY) of 6,69, ABSA looks cheap to us.
JSE:ABG
by PDSnetSA
$JSEABG - ABSA: Death Cross Triggers Bearish Outlook The original analysis of Absa was on 09.03.2023 and i was cautious to bearish, link below. The bearish outlook has now been triggered 1-Price has broken decisively below the support trendline. 2-We have a Death Cross, the 50EMA has crossed below the 200EMA on the daily chart. Many institutional investors see this as a major trend change signal. 3-The MACD has crossed below the zero-line. Looking at the historical price action, it is hard to find key support levels and momentum looks to be on the downside in the short-term.
JSE:ABGShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
ABSA Group: The Bear vs Bull CaseABG presents an interesting proposition, it last had a yearly cycle low in March 2020, current cycle is more than 1050 days, the longest on record. However there has not been a failed weekly cycle to cement a yearly low. Price has made an ascending triangle since March 2020. Bulls would be buying at support. We can watch for the following: - A break of support that would trigger many stop losses going lower than R150.02 (weekly low) - A swing high that forms below the black line then back to support & lower than R167.34 Given time, a close above black line would be a trigger long, a new weekly low would be confirmed above the pink resistance line which is also the resistance formed at yearly chart cycle. For now we can watch the lower time frames nibbling some 10-14%.
JSE:ABG
by runyamhere