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ARCELORMITTAL SA LIMITEDARCELORMITTAL SA LIMITEDARCELORMITTAL SA LIMITED

ARCELORMITTAL SA LIMITED

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Our opinion on the current state of ARCMITTAL(ACL)ArcelorMittal (ACL) is South Africa's largest steel-producing company. It has survived where companies like Highveld Steel have disappeared. Arguably, ArcelorMittal felt the impact of the sub-prime crisis more than any other South African company and has fallen from its high of R260 in June 2008 to as low as 25c in August 2020. Since then, it has rallied strongly and now trades at 1052c. It has had to deal with the collapse of the construction industry locally, which was a major consumer of steel, and the massive imports of cheap Chinese steel which were dumped onto our market. Those imports have slowed down somewhat, and ArcelorMittal was successful in getting certain tariffs in place to discourage imports. We believe that this company came close to closure in July 2020 when the share price reached 25c. It has been rescued by the rising steel price combined with severe cost-cutting. In its results for the year to 31st December 2024, the company reported revenue down 7% and a headline loss of R5,1bn compared with a loss of R1,89bn in the previous period. The company recorded an "Operational EBITDA loss - before the Longs Business wind-down charge, severance packages charge and the write-down of inventory – of R1 816 million (2023: R56 million profit), includes R670 million of losses relating to the Q2 2024 Blast Furnace instability and R1 514 million of inventory disposal losses in support of improved liquidity." These results brought the new upward trend to an abrupt halt, taking the shares back down to and through support at around 100c. On 6th January 2025, the company announced that it had taken the decision to wind down and close its Longs steel division, leading to a sharp drop in the share price.
JSE:ACL
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of ARCMITTAL(ACL)ArcelorMittal (ACL) is South Africa's largest steel producer and has managed to survive in an industry where competitors like Highveld Steel have disappeared. The company was severely impacted by the sub-prime crisis, with its share price falling from a high of R260 in June 2008 to as low as 25 cents in August 2020. Since then, it has staged a strong recovery, reaching 1,052 cents before recent challenges reversed its upward momentum. The company has had to navigate multiple challenges, including the collapse of the local construction industry, once a major consumer of steel, and the influx of cheap Chinese steel being dumped onto the South African market. While imports have slowed, ArcelorMittal successfully secured tariffs to discourage further dumping. At its lowest point in July 2020, the company appeared close to closure, but it was rescued by a rising steel price and severe cost-cutting measures. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported a 3% decline in revenue and a headline loss of 100 cents per share, compared to a loss of 40 cents in the previous period. The company cited "difficult local and regional trading conditions, and the negative volume and direct cost impact of operational interruptions of the two blast furnaces at Vanderbijlpark" as major factors affecting financial performance. In an update on 3rd July 2024, ArcelorMittal reported that the Longs steel product operations ("Longs Business") had remained operationally stable in the first half of 2024. However, the Flats steel product operations ("Flats Business") in Vanderbijlpark had suffered from significant instability at its blast furnaces in April and May 2024. The company emphasized that "intensive cash management actions" had kept net borrowings within tolerable levels. In its third-quarter update for 2024, the company reported an EBITDA loss of R466 million, compared to a profit of R52 million in Q3 2023. This loss was primarily driven by the Longs Business. In a trading statement for the full year ending 31st December 2024, ArcelorMittal estimated a headline loss of between 450 cents and 466 cents per share, significantly worse than the previous period's loss of 170 cents. These results abruptly ended the company's new upward trend, sending the share price back down towards support at around 100 cents. On 6th January 2025, ArcelorMittal announced its decision to wind down and close its Longs steel division, leading to a sharp drop in the share price. This move signals further financial strain and restructuring efforts as the company attempts to stabilize its operations. While ArcelorMittal has previously recovered from extreme lows, the recent setbacks highlight its vulnerability to steel prices, operational challenges, and weak local demand. The stock remains highly volatile and should be approached with caution until clearer signs of stability and profitability emerge.
JSE:ACL
by PDSnetSA
UPDATE ACL Profit target reached at R2.22Since the price broke abbove the W Formation and the Price went above above 20 and 200 THe momentum and buying just took off at an alarming rate. So within ONE week, the price shot up to R2.21 which was even a surprise to me with the speed of the analysis. So what now? Now, it's in a dangerous area. The trend is so steep it can come down just as fast. If the buyers have conviction they will drive the price sideways first before the next buy up. But we'l have to give it some time before we decide.
JSE:ACLLong
by Timonrosso
Our opinion on the current state of ARCMITTAL(ACL)ArcelorMittal (ACL) is South Africa's largest steel-producing company. It has survived while other companies, like Highveld Steel, have disappeared. Arguably, ArcelorMittal felt the impact of the sub-prime crisis more than any other South African company, with its share price falling from a high of R260 in June 2008 to as low as 25c in August 2020. Since then, the share price has rallied strongly and now trades at 1052c. The company has had to contend with the collapse of the local construction industry, which was a major consumer of steel, as well as massive imports of cheap Chinese steel that were dumped onto the South African market. Those imports have slowed down somewhat, and ArcelorMittal was successful in securing certain tariffs to discourage imports. We believe that this company came close to closure in July 2020 when the share price reached 25c. However, it has been rescued by the rising steel price combined with severe cost-cutting measures. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue down 3% and a headline loss of 100c per share compared with a loss of 40c in the previous period. The company stated, "The financial results were negatively impacted by the difficult local and regional trading conditions, and by the negative volume and direct cost impact of operational interruptions of the two blast furnaces at Vanderbijlpark." In an update on 3rd July 2024, the company mentioned, "The Longs steel product operations ("Longs Business") have been operationally stable for H1 2024. The Flats steel product operations ("Flats Business") in Vanderbijlpark experienced notable levels of instability at its blast furnaces in April and May 2024. Due to the intensive cash management actions, the net borrowings position is anticipated to remain within tolerable levels." We recommended waiting for the share to break above its 200-day moving average before investigating further. That happened on 10th July 2024 at 129c per share. Since then, the share has moved up to 136c and looks like it may be entering a new upward trend.
JSE:ACL
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of ARCMITTAL(ACL)ArcelorMittal (ACL) is South Africa's largest steel-producing company. It has survived where companies like Highveld Steel have disappeared. Arguably, ArcelorMittal felt the impact of the sub-prime crisis more than any other South African company and has fallen from its high of R260 in June 2008 to as low as 25c in August 2020. Since then, it has rallied strongly and now trades at 1052c. The company has had to deal with the collapse of the construction industry locally, which was a major consumer of steel, and the massive imports of cheap Chinese steel which were dumped onto our market. Those imports have slowed down somewhat, and ArcelorMittal was successful in getting certain tariffs in place to discourage imports. We believe that this company came close to closure in July 2020 when the share price reached 25c. It has been rescued by the rising steel price combined with severe cost-cutting. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023, the company reported revenue down 5.1% and a headline loss of R448m. The company said, "Falling international commodity demand affected most sectors. Understandably, steel demand remained muted, which put significant pressure on local prices. The company committed to adopt a flexible approach to operating plants in reaction to the available order book, adjusting fixed cost levels accordingly, and following an assertive cash management process." The share fell 43% after the trading statement. This share remains a commodity share subject to the international price of steel. In late April 2023, talks between ACL and NUMSA deadlocked, and the union said it was preparing for a major strike. On 17th July 2023, the company announced the resignation of its chief financial officer (CFO), Siphamandla Mthethwa, and he would be replaced by Gavin Griffiths in an acting capacity. On 28th November 2023, the company announced that it had decided to wind down its "Long Steel Products" business in Newcastle, which would probably result in the retrenchment of as many as 3500 workers. The decision was caused by logistics problems, the slow economy, and the advantage of scrap over iron ore. In an update on 3rd July 2024, the company said, "The Longs steel product operations ("Longs Business") have been operationally stable for H1 2024. The Flats steel product operations ("Flats Business") in Vanderbijlpark experienced notable levels of instability at its blast furnaces in April and May 2024. Due to the intensive cash management actions, the net borrowings position is anticipated to remain within tolerable levels." We recommend waiting for the share to break above its 200-day moving average before investigating further.
JSE:ACL
by PDSnetSA
ArcelorMittal - Worth the risk. Potential setup.There are specific price levels back in 2020 that have been hit. After that we see some sort of achievement which results in a trade setup as we now have to come back to test another specific area. This all has to happen in a specific sequence too... and all this despite news. If we do execute this sequence and reach 200 we should then hold 160ish to possibly push further. The possibility of going to 800 again is not out of the question either. So this entry might be a banger. Trade safe and manage your risk. "Amidst the volatility of financial markets, the echoes of 2020's price levels serve as guideposts for astute traders, illuminating the path to profitability. With each revisit, we uncover hidden opportunities, each trade setup a testament to our understanding of sequence and strategy. Armed with this knowledge, we traverse the charts with confidence, confident in our ability to navigate the complexities of the market and emerge victorious. Yet, amidst the relentless barrage of news, our journey unfolds with unwavering resolve, adhering to the precise sequence mapped by historical insights. As we chart our course towards the coveted threshold of 200, we brace ourselves for the crucial test at 160ish, knowing that success here could propel us to even greater heights, perhaps even revisiting the lofty peak of 800. It's a prospect that ignites excitement, hinting at the potential for substantial gains. With diligence and risk management as our steadfast companions, we embark on this endeavor, poised to seize the moment and unlock the full potential of this remarkable entry. Trade safe, stay vigilant, and let's ride the waves of opportunity to prosperity." - ChatGPT
JSE:ACLLong
by PonziCandle
Arcelor Mittal blip up before the crash down to 20 cents?Inv Cup and Handle formed on 28 September 2022. The price broke below the Brim level and since then it's been a one way trip down to 80 cents. Right now it seems to turn and approach a bull trap. This is where the price is likely to run up in the next two or three months with the Santa Claus Rally and the January Effect. It will then reach R2.20 to test the 200MA and the downtrend line. Then we will re-evaluate and see if the downside is still imminent to 20 cents. The analysis still stays. I like to consider this a Short Investor position.
JSE:ACLShort
by Timonrosso
Our opinion on the current state of ACLArcelorMittal (ACL) is South Africa's largest steel producing company. It has survived where companies like Highveld Steel have disappeared. Arguably, ArcelorMittal felt the impact of the sub-prime crisis more than any other South African company and has fallen from its high of R260 in June 2008 to as low as 25c in August 2020. Since then, it has rallied strongly and now trades at 1052c. It has had to deal with the collapse of the construction industry locally, which was a major consumer of steel, and the massive imports of cheap Chinese steel which were dumped onto our market. Those imports have slowed down somewhat, and ArcelorMittal was successful in getting certain tariffs in place to discourage imports. We believe that this company came close to closure in July 2020 when the share price reached 25c. It has been rescued by the rising steel price combined with severe cost cutting. In its results for the six months to 30the June 2023 the company reported revenue down 5,1% and a headline loss of R448m. The company said, "Falling international commodity demand affected most sectors. Understandably, steel demand remained muted, which put significant pressure on local prices. The company committed to adopt a flexible approach to operating plants in reaction to the available order book, adjusting fixed cost levels accordingly, and following an assertive cash management process". The share fell 43% after the trading statement. This share remains a commodity share subject to the international price of steel. In late April 2023 talks between ACL and NUMSA deadlocked and the union said it was preparing for a major strike. On 17th July 2023 the company announced the resignation of its chief financial officer (CFO), Siphamandla Mthethwa, had resigned and would be replaced by Gavin Griffiths in an acting capacity. On 28th November 2023 the company announced that it had decided to wind down its "Long Steel Products" business in Newcastle which would probably result in the retrenchment of as many as 3500 workers. The decision was caused by logistics problems, the slow economy and the advantage of scrap over iron ore. The We recommend waiting for the share to break above its 65-day exponentially smoothed moving average before investigating further.
JSE:ACL
by PDSnetSA
UPDATE - ACL still falling like a rock to 20 centsWe unfortunately foresaw an ominous formation with ACL. An Inv Cup and Handle on 22 September 2022 where the first trade analysis was sent. The price broke below the Brim level and has been ever so slowly but evidently falling. The downtrend remains strong with the price below 200MA. And with no end of the bear market in sight, the target remains at 20cents. As deriavtive traders there isn't much we can do to short or take this opportunity. But hopefully it alarms bells for investors who think it's cheap to buy and believe it's reached the bottom. Greed and Ego has no place for investors. There is no point to pick a bottom but rather buy when it's up and in a bull market. Or else one gets emotionally and financially involves and ends up in a bad relationship for years on end.
JSE:ACLShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: ArcelorMittal slow death continues to 20cArcelorMittal has shown downside since 2008 where the price was at its peak at R264,00. SInce the financial crisis it's just been down and down for the steel and minin company. It was one of the biggest in the world. and today is showing a slow death. The technicals still confirm downside to come with the Inverse Cup and Handle. The taregt remains at 20 cents. Traders can't do much as there is hardly any short scrip to profit along the way. SO I guess all we can do is watch...
JSE:ACLShort
by Timonrosso