AGL trade ideas
H&S and Resistance BreakoutJSE:AGL has broken through a strong resistance level and is making higher highs. At the same time, an inverted head and shoulders chart pattern was formed. It is looking good for a long move.
JSE:AGL Anglo Ready to Break HighsAnglo American has been trading in a well defined upward trend (see posts below). After testing the oversold line there has been a good advance and the recent highs are being tested. A break of the highs should see a test of the top of the trendline.
Anlgo American bullish Golden CrossAnglo American Plc is a mining company, which engages in the exploration and mining of precious base metals and ferrous metals. The company operates through the following segments: Iron Ore, Manganese, and Corporate and Other. Its portfolio of mining businesses includes span bulk commodities, including iron ore and manganese, metallurgical coal and thermal coal, base metals and minerals, copper, nickel, niobium and phosphates, and precious metals and minerals. The company was founded by Ernest Oppenheimer in 1917 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.*
8 p/e ratio very reasonable .
Anglo American PlcEquities | Anglo American plc – short idea previously published at R397. Next provisional accumulation level is between 367 – 370, which should be in line with the 200-day simple moving average.
What are derivatives? and why they’re a revolution for traders
Derivatives trading!
What I believe has been the absolute market revolution since shares.
Derivatives might sound complicated and something you would hear from a professor or a know-it-all businessman – but they're really not.
I am no academic or even remotely one of the smartest guy’s in the world. And if I can grasp the idea and understanding of derivatives, I pretty much guarantee you will too.
Also, if you want to take trading seriously and really make a living with it, you’ll need to understand derivatives trading sometime in your career.
That’s where MATI Trader comes in…
In the next few weeks, I’ll be sending you a series of articles on everything you’ll need to know about CFDs and Spread trading derivatives – Starting with this one…
Make sure you add us to your email address book and set a reminder for every Monday at 7:30am.
Let’s start at the very beginning.
What is a derivative?
– Collins English Dictionary –
‘A derivative is an investment that depends on the
value of something else’
When it comes to trading, a derivative is a financial contract between two parties whose value is ‘derived’ from another (underlying) asset.
Let’s break that down more simply:
• A derivative is a
• financial contract
(CFDs, Spread Trading, Futures, Forwards, Options &Warrants)
• Between two parties (the buyer and seller)
• Whose value (the market’s price)
• Is derived (depends on or comes from)
• Another underlying asset
(Share, index, commodity, currency, bond, interest-rate, crypto-currency etc…)
You’ll find that the derivative’s market price mirrors that of the underlying asset’s price.
NOTE: As there are a number of different derivatives you can trade nowadays, we will ONLY focus on CFDs and Spread trading in the next few weeks, as those are the only ones I trade with MATI Trader.
Why trade using derivatives?
The absolute beauty about trading derivatives is that they are a cheaper and a more profitable way to speculate on the future price movements of a market without buying the asset itself.
You don’t get all the benefits with derivatives
What’s probably important to note with derivatives, is this.
When you buy a derivative’s contract, you’re not actually buying the physical asset. You’re simply making a bet on where you expect the price to go.
EXAMPLE:
When you buy actual shares of a company, means you’ll be able to attend AGMs (Annual General Meetings), Vote and claim dividends from a company.
When you trade derivatives on the underlying share, means you’ll be exposed to the value of the shares and the price movements – and that’s it!
As a trader, when you buy or sell a derivative, you’re not actually investing in the underlying asset but rather just making a bet (speculation) on where you believe the market’s price will head.
This gives you the advantage and opportunity to:
• Buy low (go long) a derivative of the underlying asset and sell it at a higher price for a profit or
• Sell high (go short) a derivative of the underlying asset and buy it back at a lower price for a profit
Remember when I said it was cheaper and more profitable? You can thank margin
With derivatives, you’ll normally pay a fraction of the price of the total sum and still be exposed to the full value of the asset (share, index, currency etc…)
The fraction of the price paid is called ‘margin’.
EXAMPLE:
To buy and own 10 Anglo shares at R390 per share will cost you R3,900 (R390 per share X 10 shares).
To buy and be exposed to 10 Anglo shares using derivatives, and the margin of the contract is 10% per share, means you’ll only pay R390 (R390 per share X 10% margin per derivative X 10 shares).
I’m sure you can see that with derivatives, you’ll be exposed to more and pay less which will gear up your potential profits or losses versus when trading shares.
This is why we call derivatives, geared financial instruments.
To understand this better, we’ll need to examine the very essence of how derivatives work through the function of gearing, which we’ll cover in more detail in the next coming weeks.
Or if you’d like to watch a complete video I recorded earlier this year on how gearing and leverage works with live relatable derivative examples, click here to start watching…
Until next time,
Trade well...
Timon Rossolimos
Founder, MATI Trader
$JSE-AGLJSE:AGL
Consolidating in small flag after initial drop.
Currently making big wick candle.
If it breaks lower target should be around 37500, with extended target around 36500
AGL - trend line breachedJSE:AGL has broken through an upward trend line and is looking like a reversal is imminent. The stochastic is also showing a signal for a short position.
If confirmed, I will enter a short position.
AGL - Rejecting At The Prior Breakdown LevelThe share has been on a massive run but with downgrades starting to emerge, the share may be due for a pullback.
The last three days (including today) has seen the candles reflecting sellers starting to emerge.
Trading Plan:
Short Sell: Above 39420c
Stop-loss: 39770
Take Profit Target: 38300c
*Please note: This is a short term technical trading view*
Is Anglo American about to break through the cloud?Interesting chart this one! Anglo American had been slowly (perhaps frustratingly) trending up for a large part of the year, recently consolidating into the cloud. However, on both the weekly and the daily chart, this stock is sitting on cloud resistance. What is also interesting is that on the weekly chart, there looks to be a tramline exactly where it's breakthrough point would be, which could cause resistance AND below it a sharper diagonal line to create a triangle.
I cant call this one but with the triangle I think it will track back into the cloud, ping off line support and then breakthrough to the upside.
Watch this space!
LSE:AAL
AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) target 2,100 from weekend quote $1,69**Defensive stock to consider is AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) quoted AUG-17 $1,698.**
Reason being XAU / USD (Gold / US Dollar) prices have elevated and appear poised to continue to range above $1,400 with a 1-3 month outlook. Dividend growth (5% yield) reflects metals rally and may continue. Market cap 23.5-BLN means it is quite defensive as pure equity play. **Debt only 3-BLN. Earnings 8-BLN. Assets exceed liabilities greatly.**
**"Industry: Industrial Metals & Minerals**
Full Time Employees: 64,000"
Gold on the rise, global growth slowdown may not reverse trend in production cost which could lead to Platinum rising in shadow of Gold; versus the US Dollar.
Company (AAL.L) revenue rose dramatically more than cost of revenue since 2016 (3 years), an advantage offered by the current market climate (inflation lacking) I deem. Liabilities being much less than assets makes this an indestructible defensive play.
**Platinum group metals are in a strong bullish trend, being rare basic industrial materials this may continue.**
"Platinum group metals" includes: Platinum, Rhodium, Palladium, Iridium, Osmium, Ruthenium.
Long-term copper price risk is to the upside. Refer to recession '08 Copper prices.
**"Anglo American plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploring, mining, and processing various metals and minerals worldwide. The company explores for rough and polished diamonds, copper, platinum group metals, metallurgical and thermal coal, and iron; and nickel and manganese ores, as well as alloys."**
**Nickel is up 20% in the past 3 months.**
Credit Suisse upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" 5/3/2019. Today is 8/17/2019.
**AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) target 2,100 from weekend quote $1,698 for a 23% difference** and a duration of 1-6 months, **estimate 2-3 months**. This creates possibility of receiving its' dividend of approximately 3% in addition.
$JSE-AGLJSE:AGL
Looks like double top didn't have chance to reach target.
$JSEAGL moved higher made bullish flag and looks strong.
Target to watch are 38000 gap close, 39500 previous minor high and 40500-41000 area.
$JSEAGL Rolling over on the hourly - R313.50 target in sight$JSEAGL Rolling over on the hourly - R313.50 target in sight
$JSEAGL DAILYAnglo American has found support on its long term up trend line(pink line), this trend line has been in place since Jan 2016, in August this year it was broken but fairly quickly recovered. There is also horizontal support in this area (blue line). If it breaks the next support comes in around R306 We wait to see what today brings after last nights US sell off.
$JSEAGL Hourly close below R336.50 targets R313.50$JSEAGL Hourly close below R336.50 targets R313.50
JSE:AGL Anglo American Advance Continuing Anglo American has been trading in a strong upward trend. After testing the oversold line with volume and negative divergence on the volume RSI we have seen a continuation of the stride. After a small correction, some volume indicates that the upward momentum should continue.
AGL - Bearish HaramiJSE:AGL has formed a bearish harami which has been confirmed by the stochastic. I will enter short if it trades lower today.
Anglo American PLC | ShortIf I'm analyzing a market, I always force myself to consider what the "other side" is thinking.
In other words, if my research suggests a buy, I take a good long look at the chart, fundamentals and the market in general and think about what the bears might be thinking.
I do this to try and ensure I don't miss anything. At least nothing glaringly obvious!
A couple of days ago I posted an AMS chart, which in many ways is similar to AGL.
And once again, I'm interested in the short side.
Now, if I was interested in a long, what would I be after?
Very simple answer when you look at this chart - if I wanted to buy, you wouldn't get me to place an order before 32600 at the very best. A buy here or anywhere before that is in no mans land, and if I were a long-term bull, like so many fund managers have to be, I want to buy at the best value that I can.
So, if there is no point in buying until 32600, I'm happy to short here instead.
