Our opinion on the current state of ARCINVEST(AIL)African Rainbow Capital (AIL) is a BEE investment company that was formed in 2015 and listed on the JSE in September 2017. Since it was formed, AIL has invested in more than forty listed and unlisted investments in a wide range of industries from telecommunications to mining, construction, energy, property, agriculture, insurance, asset management and banking.
ARC Investments is 44.4% effectively owned by African Rainbow Capital Proprietary Limited (ARC), which in turn is 100% owned by Ubuntu-Booth Investments Proprietary Limited (UBI). UBI effectively owns 51.2% of ARC Investments. AIL is thus owned through Ubuntu-Botha Investments by the Motsepe family through their trusts. In the South African context, it has a significant advantage in finding suitable companies in which to invest because it can offer them a solid, reliable BEE shareholder.
AIL has benefited from an investment by Sanlam and owns a stake in the Sanlam subsidiary, Santam. The company acquired 100% of TymeDigital which has launched a digital bank in partnership with Pick 'n Pay. It offers digital banking, especially for those who cannot afford normal banking, via their phones, and had the distinction of being the only bank in South Africa not to charge transaction fees. It competes with other new banks in South Africa like Discovery Bank and Bank Zero.
AIL has taken a hit on its investment in EOH (which may now be improving) but has done well in most other areas. Roughly half of the AIL portfolio is in what it describes as "early lifestyle stage businesses" such as Tymebank, Rain and Kropz. These investments are seen as disruptive in their sectors, but will take time to mature. It also owns 7% of Afrimat having reduced its stake from 18,4%.
If there is a criticism of this investment holding company, it must be its lack of focus. It appears to be invested in a very diverse range of industries without significant synergies or economies of scale. The need of most South African companies to have a stable BEE partner gives it an edge in finding and negotiating good deals, but its lack of focus may eventually become a problem.
The share trades at a fraction of its intrinsic NAV. It was 59% of its NAV after falling about 25% in the last six months to 2023. The discount makes it good value and may result in "unbundling" some of that value into the hands of shareholders in due course. The directors have said that they will consider delisting from the JSE if the discount persists because the listing cannot be used to raise further capital at current share prices.
On 21st November 2023 the company announced a rights issue to raise R742,35m. Shareholders will get 11,06579 new shares for every 100 shares that they hold at a 7,32% discount to the volume-weighted average price on 10th November 2023. In its results for the year to 30th June 2024 the company reported that its intrinsic net asset value (NAV) increased by 8,5% to 1238c per share while Tymebank and Linebroker achieved break-even. Rain which is 26% of the total portfolio is the most preferred network in South Africa. The total value of listed and unlisted investments was R20,2bn.
In an update on 10th December 2024 the company said, "Rain has reported a successful quarter marked by significant growth in mobile customers. Kropz continues making progress at both Kropz Elandsfontein and Cominco. The Bluespec Group continues to be a strong performer within the business process outsourcing (BPO) pillar of the ARC Fund. Consumer Friend, the biggest business unit in the Upstream Group, took two prestigious awards at this year's Debt Review Awards. The Agri portfolio's overall financial performance remains in line with projections. Tyme Group continues its strong growth trajectory, with 14.4 million customers across TymeBank (10m) and GoTymeBank (4.4m) as of September 30, 2024."
The share still trades for 62% of it NAV. Technically, the share has been falling since March 2023. We recommended applying a 200-day moving average and waiting for a clear upside break before investigating further. That break came on 26th April 2024 at 544c per share. Since then the share has moved up to 767c.
