AMS - Long position coming upThe stochastic, MACD and 3 & 15 EMA's have all crossed upwards on JSE:AMS signaling a potential long position.
AMS trade ideas
Downward momentum on AMSOur 3 momentum indicators have all crossed downwards on JSE:AMS signaling a good time to enter a short position. The target is at the strong support level at around the 160000 level.
AmplatsCould Amplats be coming for a retest before the next move higher?
2000 is the level to watch.
@VillageTraderZA - Commodities the only game in townThe last 3 days of the past week was quite bearish. With a reversal pattern of a bearish engulfing candle. I think the market is about to shake of it’s first set of “weak hands”. With bullish conditions I think the reversal pattern is as a result of a stale bulls from the commodity super circle boom seeing profits for the first time since March 2021. Some people were caught and set with a losing position for a year and would be happy to break even or take the profits they haven’t seen in a year. We could see the market come to the R2237 resistance and provide good buying opportunities to pick the “dip”. I will be looking for a reversal pattern back to the upside this week. To raise my stop and add to my position.
@VillageTraderZA - Amplats breaking higherThe stock broke the R1921 resistance. Raised my stop loss to R1762 reducing to -1.06%. I have a R2231 target on the stock. Rising commodity price is the wind need to to support the breakout and the golden cross
PAIRS UPDATE: Long MU/Short AMD: Now Running +38% Over 2-MonthsDuring the last quarter of 2021, my only offshore pairs trade idea was Long Micron Tech(MU)/Short Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Since then (Monday, 15 November 2021) the performance has been as follows:
MU/AMD +38%
Nasdaq Composite: -14%
Pair Outperformance vs Nasdaq Composite: +52%
In a market that's down, considering a pairs strategy reduces the need to take index level directional bets while more importantly helping to protect capital and possibly generate alpha.
If your trading services provider isn't highlighting these kind of real-time opportunities and insights and you find these posts/ideas useful, why not get in touch with us today?
Original slide/idea available on request.
AMS-SSW: Non-Directional Portfolio ProtectionThis morning I mentioned to you that I only have 1 LOCAL pair (market neutral) idea as part of my research report. That idea, published at 07:02am (before the SSW SENS) was a buy/long on AMS vs a short/sell on SSW. Original slide attached on the left.
As noted: "In terms of single stocks, one of my ideas is a local pairs (market neutral) trade idea from the commodities /mining sector." (See attached).
In a market that's down, the pair is up by 5.11% while also outperforming the Top 40 Index by +8.2%.
In a market that's down, considering a pairs strategy reduces the need to take index level directional bets while more importantly helping to protect capital and possibly generate alpha.
For a while, my intention has been to focus on pairs and get familiar with the mechanics thereof (My focus on this strategy has been increasing).
While I'm relatively new to the strategy, my trading desk colleagues have years of experience in identifying such opportunities.
If your trading services provider isn't highlighting these kind of real-time opportunities and insights and you enjoy these posts, why not get in touch with us today?
Edit: Original slide/idea available on request.
AMS ascending triangleAMS forming a potential ascending triangle. A close above resistance we can see R2000 as a target.
Trade ideas are my own and not financial advice.
@VIllageTraderZA - Golden cross backed breakoutWe have an ascending triangle breakout after a golden cross. I will start to build up a position on AmPlats with an initial risk of 1.59%
YELLOW ARROW - BEARER OF GOOD NEWSYellow arrow pointing to bullish engulfing candle stick. We will see AMS moving upwards, for the weeks to come.
Targets:
1. R192
2. R225
Remember this is my opinion and always DYOR before investing.
@VillageTraderZA - Amplats retest the necklineThe Head & Shoulders break is often followed by a re-test back to the neckline before taking. Such was the case this past week on ApmPlats closing the week off with a couple of dojis right at the neckline. Providing a good buy opportunity with a R1922 target with a tight stop loss just below the 200 day EMA. For a 5:1 Risk Reward ratio.
@VillageTraderZA Looks like its time to buy the dipAmp Plats looking like a nice solid buy. Head and Shoulders pattern battling the 50 day EMA. Let's see if the market can break
Potential Fib Retracement on AMSJSE:AMS has been trading in a downward trend since March this year. For basically the whole month of July, it made a retracement all the way up to the 61.8 Fib level. It then went down again to form lower lows. It is currently bouncing off a very strong support level and is looking like it will make a retracement again before continuing downwards. My prediction is that it might go up to the resistance level which coincides with the 50/61.8 Fib level. Let's see what happens.
Anglo Platinum Now Lower By Over R800 or -40%AMS now down by over R800 or -40% from my 'portfolio SELL idea' on 21 March 2021.
My comment at the time (via my research and the original attached idea) was as follows:
"Anglo American Platinum ( AMS , 211542c ) |Long Term Overextended To The Upside | If you've held this name in a long term portfolio for the last 5 years, should you be selling? Yes. From it's January 2016 low of R156 to it's March 2021 peak of R2224, the share is higher by over 1300% and technically, it appears overextended: (1) the price is ~226% above it's 50-month exponential moving average . (2) although strong, the RSI has developed it's first lower high. (3) in December 2020, we saw the price breach resistance of it's multi-year swing highs (May/June 2008) and (Dec-2019 to October 2020). Often a share will perform a back-test of the breakout level, which could see the share retrace to R1500.Chart Time Frame: Monthly #TradingPlan #KeyLevels "
Interested in seeing markets through our lens? For more real-time insights and trade ideas, get in touch today.
PT STOCKPT stock price cypher pattern waiting for completion of the final leg then ride the share up
The Power of the Monthly Chart: Implats and AmplatsIf interpreted correctly , monthly charts could assist a trader, portfolio manager or analyst by providing a powerful perspective of the instrument being reviewed. Unfortunately, the time frame itself (monthly) leads many traders to believe that it is not useful, Personally I have found the monthly chart to be the most powerful when performing analysis. Of course, if I am looking at ultra short term trades, say 1-3 days or 2-6 weeks, then this time frame will be of less importance. However, if you are look at the longer trades or making portfolio decisions, then the analysis could provide an input, especially from a risk management perspective .
In recent years, analysis of the monthly chart has given me an advantage and has benefited our clients, with clear calls to action. Ironically, both of today's examples are from the PGM sector.
1. Impala Platinum. The attached chart is Amplats however the smaller 'white' chart is IMP from 18 September 2018. If you recall, this was a name that traded sub-R20 in Sept-2018. On 18-Sept, it was a name we analyzed for clients, specifically providing our perspective on the monthly chart where we saw the price nearing a 25-year trend line support. The prior day close was R19.26. Most recently (in under 3 years), the name traded as high as R300.
2. Anglo American Platinum: On this platform and in my research note (on 21 March) I made a clear call to portfolio holders to sell AMS, with the comments as follows: "Anglo American Platinum ( AMS , 211542c ) |Long Term Overextended To The Upside | If you've held this name in a long term portfolio for the last 5 years, should you be selling? Yes. From it's January 2016 low of R156 to it's March 2021 peak of R2224, the share is higher by over 1300% and technically, it appears overextended: (1) the price is ~226% above it's 50-month exponential moving average . (2) although strong, the RSI has developed it's first lower high. (3) in December 2020, we saw the price breach resistance of it's multi-year swing highs (May/June 2008) and (Dec-2019 to October 2020). Often a share will perform a back-test of the breakout level, which could see the share retrace to R1500.Chart Time Frame: Monthly"
As at Friday 20 August (5 months later), the share closed at R1518, 28% lower from the time of the call. Could it reverse higher in the short term? Sure it could, however from a portfolio perspective (using the monthly chart), the price continues to trade at elevated levels, having already advanced substantially over the last number of years. Not only did the clear call avoid a potentially poor LONG entry, but also help existing clients capitalize on multi-year highs by selling at, what now appears to be, an appropriate exit level.
The original AMS publication from this platform is attached below.
Bottom Line: Are you perhaps missing opportunities by not utilizing the monthly chart? If yes, why not get in touch today and connect with an alternative perspective that has the ability to not only recognize opportunities, but more importantly help manage technical risk.
Both myself and the rest of trading desk are here to help.
All the best for the week ahead.
Regards
Lester
Anglo American Platinum - Monthly Analysis- AMS finished the month with a bullish 2-UP candle, next level of interest at T1 then T2 if we can capture that level
- Support found at previous resistance zone
- Large upcoming dividend
- Long bias while we above R1700
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
JSE:AMS
Trendline breakout on Amplats #BTFDWeekly chart
The stock held the R1514 support, also holding the 50 day EMA. We could see the stock run to R2240 (+30%) from current levels. There’s a Head & Shoulders breakout on USDZAR signal potential ZAR weakness coming. Doesn’t hurt that the company is a good dividend payer and the balance sheet is quite strong.
Daily chart
We have a nice inverse H&S pattern as the stock holds the 200 day and 50 day EMAs. If the stock can break the neckline. I will start building my position, with a stop loss just below 200 day EMA at R1582.
Amplats: ST Traders, Bank The BalanceWe noted in our research at the top of the week that PGMs were attempting a recovery.
AMS: Short term traders should be looking to scale out even further here. Bank the remaining 30% for +14%.
Amplats - Take 70% of profits for +12.4%Share has performed in the ST. Take 70% Profits for 12.4%, while retaining the balance to exit at higher levels.
Amplats: Now +R138 (or +8.9%), PGM Stocks Trying To RecoverAMS is now +R138 (or +8.9%) from our most recent Buy/Long call 8 days ago (22-June), see related.
The share has reclaimed line 1_2 and line A_B, which was part of our 2-tier view. For now, it looks like it wants to continue going, possibly to that R1725 area. Trail your stop.
Overall, the sector has been trying to base and in some cases is trying to move out of tight ranges (for e.g. SSW).
AMS - Possible long tradeJSE:AMS is looking good for a long position based off of our 3 momentum indicators. It has also recently found support and bounced nicely off of the 200SMA. I think we could see a nice upward move to at least the 180000 level and if it doesn't find resistance there and breaks through it could go all the way to around the 200000 level.
