AMS trade ideas
Anglo American Platinum - Short Term View- Pre-market Tactical Perspective:"Aggressive Selling, Wait For Lower Time Frames To Stabilize"
- Both the 7 and 14-day RSI is extremely oversold, with the share having declined from above R2250 to the last close and R1529, which is also the lowest level since February.
- It's possible that the swing support of 28 January to 04 February is held (R1480-R1510).
- Our analysis also notes a 2-tier trend line where, if the first short term resistance is breached, could offer an opportunity on the long side as an ultra short term swing.
Note: First confirmation of a potential long is a break of line 1_2.
Anglo American Platinum I consider the MONTHLY CHART to be the most underutilized time frame in technical analysis, with the time frame acting a strong guide for the second time in 18-months, helping me avoid declines of 65% and 26% respectively (see the two related ideas).
AMS is approaching our latest short/sell target of R1500 (-26%), from the 21-March note at R2115. As noted in my research report at the time: "If you've held this name in a long term portfolio for the last 5 years, should you be selling? Yes. From it's January 2016 low of R156 to it's March 2021 peak of R2224, the share is higher by over 1300% and technically, it appears overextended: (1) the price is ~226% above it's 50-month exponential moving average. (2) although strong, the RSI has developed it's first lower high. (3) in December 2020, we saw the price breach resistance of it's multi-year swing highs (May/June 2008) and (Dec-2019 to October 2020). Often a share will perform a back-test of the breakout level, which could see the share retrace to R1500. Chart Time Frame: Monthly".
If you are not utilizing the monthly chart in your approach, you may be missing out on an alternative perspective to take advantage of opportunities as well as more importantly, to manage risks.
Anglo American PlatinumPrice currently testing the 200dma which is psychologically the last 'defense line' to keep an uptrend intact.
There is also a bull flag like technical structure which if broken may take prices higher.
$JSEAMSNice pullback in Amplats, consolidating now a break out of the box is a low risk buying opportunity. MACD also looking light it may turn positive.
AMS - EMA crossing could be signaling a shortThe EMA's on JSE:AMS have finally crossed downwards after the stochastic and MACD have been showing downward momentum for some time. It might struggle a bit at the 200000 level, but if it breaks through that, I think we could potentially see it go to around the 180000 support level.
Anglo American Platinum - Long Term Sell, Going WellAs mentioned on SAT 21/03 (for my note of 23/04), if you've held AMS in a long term portfolio for more than 5 years, then you need to consider selling. So far, we have seen the price weaken quite nicely from above 2200 to 1870. Also note, the analysis was based off the monthly chart. The gains have been great but it may be time to take your profits.
21/03 Idea (Ref) is attached below.
AMSAn extract from my weekly research report.
Anglo American Platinum (AMS, 211542c ) |Long Term Overextended To The Upside | If you've held this name in a long term portfolio for the last 5 years, should you be selling? Yes. From it's January 2016 low of R156 to it's March 2021 peak of R2224, the share is higher by over 1300% and technically, it appears overextended: (1) the price is ~226% above it's 50-month exponential moving average. (2) although strong, the RSI has developed it's first lower high. (3) in December 2020, we saw the price breach resistance of it's multi-year swing highs (May/June 2008) and (Dec-2019 to October 2020). Often a share will perform a back-test of the breakout level, which could see the share retrace to R1500.Chart Time Frame: Monthly #TradingPlan #KeyLevels
Anglo Plats (AMS) - BEARISH REVERSALBearish engulfing candle formed yesterday Mar 11th
Reversal sign and short term retracement is eminent.
Early signs of "shooting star" candle forming on Weekly timeframe dependent on today's close.
Retracement down to 180000 level as Target 1.
If 180000 level does not hold it opens Target 2 in 160000 range.
AMSBearish engulfing candle today on the #dailychart, price extremely overbought.
Could this be signaling a reversal?
Anglo American Plat Ltd looks really overboughtEverything about this chart is telling me that the stock needs to retrace and perhaps consolidate at lower levels before its next leg upwards. At face value the company appears to be heavily overbought. I would usually take significant profits at this point, however, the price of platinum looks really bullish.
Its a case of reconciling whats been priced into vs the implications of a higher platinum price.
So what is one to do?
I'm incline to say take some profits...
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
Potential small down move for AMSA bearish engulfing candle has formed on JSE:AMS and we are seeing some nice downward momentum. We could possibly see a small downward move to around the 140000 level of support.
AMS Promising a Great RunGiven the setup for Emerging markets to perform well led by commodities, we might think AMS is expensive at an all time high but the amount of money in the system when it unleashes velocity is going to propel this chart to dizzy heights.
Short on AMSJSE:AMS is showing strong downward signals and we could be looking at a move down to the support area at around 110000. The stochastic, MACD, and the two EMAs are all confirming this downward momentum.
Long on AMSJSE:AMS is showing signs for a possible long position using the momentum trend-following strategy. The bullish engulfing that formed on the 6th of October confirms this.
