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CML.JSE Coronation Fund Possible Cup & Handle Formation?Coronation Fund Managers looks to Print a Possible Cup & Handle Formation? This is a Bullish Pattern, but has not yet Printed. Conviction is Strong IMO. The Target Price has been Projected Up to identify the possibilities. As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions. Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away. Regards Graham.
JSE:CMLLong
by hitchcoxg
Our opinion on the current state of CORONAT(CML)Coronation (CML) is one of South Africa's largest asset managers and the only one listed on the JSE. Founded in 1993, the company grew successfully until 2015. At that point, the founding CEO resigned, and Adrian Pillay, a well-qualified individual, took over. However, the company has faced challenges since Pillay's appointment. Coronation was heavily invested in African Bank and Steinhoff, both of which experienced significant financial issues, leading to substantial losses. These missteps have caused the investment community to question Coronation's ability to maintain its past success in selecting strong investments on the JSE and beyond. As a result, the company has seen an outflow of institutional funds, which has negatively impacted confidence in its fund management. In the asset management industry, confidence is crucial, particularly from institutional fund managers who must trust the judgement of asset managers. A solid track record of managing funds is essential, but even the most qualified teams will make mistakes and lose money at times. On 8th February 2023, Coronation announced that it had lost a SARS appeal regarding additional taxes, which could potentially result in the suspension of its dividend. This news caused the share price to drop sharply. However, in its results for the six months to 31st March 2024, the company reported a 4.3% increase in revenue and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 200.5c, compared with 6.2c in the previous period. Assets under management (AUM) also grew by 5% to R631bn. The company said, "Net outflows for the period were in line with our expectations at 4% of average AUM. This is largely due to the weak SA savings industry, to which Coronation is significantly exposed. It also reflects the experience of the broader industry, as active asset managers around the world experience persistent net outflows." Technically, Coronation's shares rose strongly from 2008 until reaching a peak of R115 per share on 30th December 2014. After that, and under new management, the shares fell to a low of 2541c at the outbreak of COVID-19. A long-term downward trendline was applied, and a clear upside break occurred on 21st June 2024 at 3599c. The share was added to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 11th May 2024 at 3281c and has since risen to 3900c, with indications that it will rise further. On 21st June 2024, the Constitutional Court ruled in Coronation's favor, meaning the company is not liable for a R794m claim by SARS. The company indicated that the funds set aside for a potential adverse judgement could be returned to shareholders. Additionally, on 13th October 2024, Coronation announced its intention to increase black ownership from the current 31% to 51%, which would help it secure more business from government agencies like the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF).
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of CORONAT(CML)Coronation (CML) is one of South Africa's largest asset managers and the only one listed on the JSE. Founded in 1993, the company grew very well until 2015. At that point, the founding CEO resigned and a new CEO, Adrian Pillay, took over. Pillay is eminently well-qualified for the job, but things have not gone well since he took over. The company was heavily invested in African Bank and lost a lot of money there. It was also heavily invested in Steinhoff. These missteps have caused the investment community to re-evaluate Coronation's ability to keep choosing winners on the JSE and elsewhere. The result has been an outflow of institutional funds. The fund management business is all about confidence. As a fund manager, you need to get institutional fund managers to trust your judgment. Usually, that means employing a team of very highly qualified people with solid track records in managing funds. Unfortunately, no matter how good your team is, they are going to make mistakes and lose money sooner or later. On 8th February 2023, the company announced that it had lost a SARS appeal to have it pay additional taxes. Accordingly, it may have to suspend its dividend. This caused the share price to drop sharply. In its results for the six months to 31st March 2024, the company reported revenue up 4.3% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 200.5c compared with 6.2c in the previous period. Assets under management (AUM) increased 5% to R631bn. The company said, "Net outflows for the period were in line with our expectations at 4% of average AUM. This is largely due to the weak SA savings industry, to which Coronation is significantly exposed. It also reflects the experience of the broader industry, as active asset managers around the world experience persistent net outflows." Technically, Coronation's shares rose very strongly from 2008 until its peak at R115 per share on 30th December 2014. After that, and under new management, it fell to a low of 2541c with the outbreak of COVID-19. We recommended applying a long-term downward trendline and waiting for a clear upside break, which happened on 21st June 2024 at 3599c. The share was added to our Winning Shares List (WSL) on 11th May 2024 at 3281c. It has since moved up to 3599c and looks like it will rise further. On 21st June 2024, the Constitutional Court handed down a ruling in Coronation's favour, which means that the company is not liable for a R794m claim by SARS. The company has said that the money it had put aside to meet an adverse judgment could be returned to shareholders.
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of CORONAT(CML)Coronation (CML) is one of South Africa's largest asset managers and the only one listed on the JSE. Founded in 1993, the company experienced significant growth until 2015. At that point, the founding CEO resigned and was replaced by Adrian Pillay. Despite Pillay's qualifications, the company has faced challenges under his leadership, particularly due to significant losses from investments in African Bank and Steinhoff. These missteps have led to a re-evaluation of Coronation's ability to select winning investments, resulting in an outflow of institutional funds. The fund management business relies heavily on confidence, and these events have shaken the trust that institutional fund managers place in Coronation. On 8th February 2023, Coronation announced it had lost a SARS appeal, which may result in the suspension of its dividend, causing the share price to drop sharply. However, in its results for the six months ending on 31st March 2024, the company reported a revenue increase of 4.3% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 200.5c, compared with 6.2c in the previous period. Assets under management (AUM) grew by 5% to R631bn. The company noted, "Net outflows for the period were in line with our expectations at 4% of average AUM. This is largely due to the weak SA savings industry, to which Coronation is significantly exposed. It also reflects the experience of the broader industry, as active asset managers around the world experience persistent net outflows." From a technical perspective, Coronation's shares experienced strong growth from 2008 until they peaked at R115 per share on 30th December 2014. Under the new management, the share value fell to a low of 2541c during the COVID-19 outbreak. A long-term downward trendline was observed, with a potential upside break appearing imminent. The share was added to our Winning Shares List (WSL) on 11th May 2024 at 3281c. Since then, it has risen to 3415c and appears poised for further increases.
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of CORONAT(CML)Coronation Fund Managers (CML) is a significant figure in South Africa’s asset management landscape, recognized as one of the largest managers in the country and the only one directly listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Established in 1993, the company experienced robust growth until a pivotal leadership change in 2015 when Adrian Pillay took over as CEO following the resignation of the founding CEO. Leadership and Investment Challenges: Despite Pillay’s strong qualifications, his tenure has been challenging. Notably, Coronation faced substantial losses due to investments in African Bank and Steinhoff, both of which significantly underperformed. These financial missteps have shaken investor confidence, leading to a re-evaluation of Coronation’s asset selection capabilities and resulting in substantial institutional outflows. The asset management sector heavily relies on maintaining trust and confidence, and these setbacks highlight the inherent risks in fund management where even experienced teams can face significant challenges. Regulatory and Financial Setbacks: Further complicating matters, in February 2023, Coronation lost an appeal with the South African Revenue Service (SARS), resulting in additional tax liabilities and a potential suspension of its dividend. This development adversely affected the company's share price. For the fiscal year ending 30th September 2023, Coronation reported a 2% decrease in revenue and a significant 50% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The company managed R602 billion in assets, but noted net outflows amounting to 10% of average assets under management (AUM). This outflow was attributed to broader industry trends, including global emerging markets' declining demand after a decade of underperformance and shrinking savings pools within South Africa. Recent Financial Performance: Looking ahead, a trading update for the six months ending 31st March 2024 suggested a potential recovery in HEPS, estimating it to be between 199.7c and 200.9c, compared to just 6.2c in the previous corresponding period. This forecast indicates some stabilization, although it’s early to determine a full turnaround. Stock Performance and Investment Outlook: From a technical analysis perspective, Coronation’s stock performance mirrored its operational challenges. The share price saw significant growth from 2008 until it peaked at R115 per share on 30th December 2014. Under new management, coupled with several external setbacks, the share price declined notably, reaching a low of 2541c during the COVID-19 outbreak. Since then, the trend has been mostly sideways to downward. Currently, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 17.9, the shares might appear reasonably valued in comparison to historical averages and the broader market. However, the sustained downward trend and ongoing challenges suggest caution. Investors are advised to monitor the stock for a clear break above the long-term downward trendline before considering entry, as the current market conditions and company-specific factors do not yet indicate an imminent reversal of the downward trajectory. Conclusion: For potential investors, Coronation presents a mixed picture. While there are signs of potential stabilization, the historical performance, ongoing outflows, and recent financial results suggest that careful consideration and continued monitoring are advisable before making investment decisions in this stock.
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of CORONAT(CML)Coronation Fund Managers (CML) is a prominent asset management firm in South Africa, notable for being the only one of its kind listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Established in 1993, the company experienced significant growth until 2015, at which point the founding CEO resigned and Adrian Pillay took the helm. Despite Pillay's qualifications, his tenure has seen challenging times for Coronation, particularly due to investment missteps. The firm faced substantial losses from investments in African Bank and Steinhoff, which significantly impacted its reputation and led to a reevaluation of its asset selection capabilities by the investment community. This scrutiny has resulted in a noticeable outflow of institutional funds, which is critical in a business heavily reliant on confidence and trust in judgment and expertise. The asset management industry depends on maintaining a high level of trust with institutional fund managers, who must believe in the asset manager's decision-making abilities. This typically requires a team of highly qualified individuals with proven track records. However, even the most skilled teams can make errors that result in financial losses, as seen in Coronation's case. Further complicating matters, on February 8, 2023, Coronation announced a lost appeal with the South African Revenue Service (SARS) regarding additional taxes, which may lead to the suspension of its dividend payments. This news sharply drove down the share price. For the fiscal year ending on September 30, 2023, the company reported a 2% decrease in revenue and a dramatic 50% decline in headline earnings per share (HEPS). With R602 billion under management, the firm also noted net outflows amounting to 10% of average assets under management (AUM). These outflows were attributed to a combination of industry-wide withdrawals from global emerging markets due to a decade of lackluster performance and the shrinking South African savings pool. Looking ahead, in a trading statement for the six months ending March 31, 2024, Coronation estimated that HEPS would rebound to at least 190c compared to just 6.2c in the previous period, suggesting a possible recovery or stabilization. Technically, Coronation's shares saw a significant rise from 2008 until peaking at R115 per share on December 30, 2014. Under new leadership, the share price has faced declines, particularly with the onset of COVID-19, and has continued on a downward trajectory, now moving sideways and downwards. The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at around 16.31%, which might seem attractive, but the potential for further declines cannot be dismissed. Given this backdrop, a cautious approach would be advisable for potential investors. It is recommended to monitor the stock for a clear upward break from its long-term downward trend before considering investment, though such a shift does not appear imminent.
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
Coronation Fund Managers LTD to rally or face "demotion"?After a shock rally from lows of R4.15 in early 2009 to highs of R115.20 going into 2015, Coronation has been on a downtrend that formed a large falling wedge. both bearish and bullish legs within the wedge have been lasting 2 years on average, with the latest bearish leg starting early 2022 before getting intercepted by a sideway trend just 9 months later towards end of September 2022. Price has been on this sideway trend around the 76.40% Fib retracement level of the 2009-2015 rally. Since April 2023 it has been locked within R28.60 and R33.40. On the daily chart, we can see a double bottom structure that has been now followed with what seems to be developing into a bullish flag. This could be a signal that the 76.40% level is holding as strong support and some buyers are becoming interested in the stock. Conservative Investors may need to wait patiently to see buyers take price above R33.40 before jumping in to hold on to the stock for dear life (HODL) as the stock may in the long term reach for targerts resting at R57.00, R86.80, R115.20, R184.00, and R295.00. Risk entries can be initiated as the stock closes bullishly above R31.50, making use of a stop loss below R28.60 as a bearish outlook on the stock will be on the table. The stock is trading thinly just below the 50 Week EMA. The Weekly RSI is above the smoothing average and has formed a bullish pennant, more confluence to support our current bullish outlook.
JSE:CMLLong
by Source_Sailor
Our opinion on the current state of CMLCoronation (CML) is one of South Africa's largest asset managers and the only one listed on the JSE. Founded in 1993, the company grew very well until 2015. At that point, the founding CEO resigned and a new CEO, Adrian Pillay, took over. Pillay is eminently well-qualified for the job, but things have not done well since he took over. The company was heavily invested in African Bank and lost a lot of money there. It was also heavily invested in Steinhoff. These missteps have caused the investment community to re-evaluate Coronation's ability to keep choosing winners on the JSE and elsewhere. The result has been an outflow of institutional funds. The fund management business is all about confidence. As a fund manager you need to get institutional fund managers to trust your judgement. Usually that means employing a team of very highly qualified people with solid track-records in managing funds. Unfortunately, no matter how good your team is, they are going to make mistakes and lose money sooner or later. On 8th February 2023 the company announced that it had lost a SARS appeal to have it pay additional taxes. Accordingly it may have to suspend its dividend. This caused the share price to drop sharply. In its results for the year to 30th September 2023 the company reported revenue down 2% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 50%. The company had R602bn under management. The company said, "Net outflows for the period amounted to 10% of average AUM. This can largely be attributed to both industry-wide outflows from the global emerging markets asset class, as demand declined after a decade of weak performance, and to the contracting SA savings pool". Technically, Coronation's shares rose very strongly from 2008 until its peak at R115 per share on 30th December 2014. After that, and under new management, it fell to a low of 2541c with the outbreak of COVID-19. The downward trend is continuing with the share drifting sideways and downwards. It has a dividend yield of around 4,09% which looks cheap, but it could fall further. We recommend apply a long-term downward trendline and waiting for a clear upside break - which does not look like it will happen any time soon.
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of CMLCoronation (CML) is one of South Africa's largest asset managers and the only one listed on the JSE. Founded in 1993, the company grew very well until 2015. At that point, the founding CEO resigned and a new CEO, Adrian Pillay, took over. Pillay is eminently well-qualified for the job, but things have not done well since he took over. The company was heavily invested in African Bank and lost a lot of money there. It was also heavily invested in Steinhoff. These missteps have caused the investment community to re-evaluate Coronation's ability to keep choosing winners on the JSE and elsewhere. The result has been an outflow of institutional funds. The fund management business is all about confidence. As a fund manager you need to get institutional fund managers to trust your judgement. Usually that means employing a team of very highly qualified people with solid track-records in managing funds. Unfortunately, no matter how good your team is, they are going to make mistakes and lose money sooner or later. On 8th February 2023 the company announced that it had lost a SARS appeal to have it pay additional taxes. Accordingly it may have to suspend its dividend. This caused the share price to drop sharply. In its results for the year to 30th September 2023 the company reported revenue down 2% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 50%. The company had R602bn under management. The company said, "Net outflows for the period amounted to 10% of average AUM. This can largely be attributed to both industry-wide outflows from the global emerging markets asset class, as demand declined after a decade of weak performance, and to the contracting SA savings pool". Technically, Coronation's shares rose very strongly from 2008 until its peak at R115 per share on 30th December 2014. After that, and under new management, it fell to a low of 2541c with the outbreak of COVID-19. The downward trend is continuing with the share drifting sideways and downwards. It has a dividend yield of around 4,09% which looks cheap, but it could fall further. We recommend apply a long-term downward trendline and waiting for a clear upside break - which does not look like it will happen any time soon.
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of CMLCoronation (CML) is one of South Africa's largest asset managers and the only one listed on the JSE. Founded in 1993, the company grew very well until 2015. At that point, the founding CEO resigned and a new CEO, Adrian Pillay, took over. Pillay is eminently well-qualified for the job, but things have not done well since he took over. The company was heavily invested in African Bank and lost a lot of money there. It was also heavily invested in Steinhoff. These missteps have caused the investment community to re-evaluate Coronation's ability to keep choosing winners on the JSE and elsewhere. The result has been an outflow of institutional funds. The fund management business is all about confidence. As a fund manager you need to get institutional fund managers to trust your judgement. Usually that means employing a team of very highly qualified people with solid track-records in managing funds. Unfortunately, no matter how good your team is, they are going to make mistakes and lose money sooner or later. On 8th February 2023 the company announced that it had lost a SARS appeal to have it pay additional taxes. Accordingly it may have to suspend its dividend. This caused the share price to drop sharply. In its results for the six months to 31st March 2023 the company reported revenue down 6% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 97%. Assets under management (AUM) increased 9% to R623bn. The company said, "Outflows amounted to 5% of our average AUM. This is in line with our recent experience and is a trend we expect to continue as the local savings pool continues to contract. Total fixed expenses increased by 11% from the prior corresponding period". In a trading statement for the year to 30th September 2023 the company estimated that HEPS would fall by between 45% and 55%. Technically, Coronation's shares rose very strongly from 2008 until its peak at R115 per share on 30th December 2014. After that, and under new management, it fell to a low of 2541c with the outbreak of COVID-19. The downward trend is continuing with the share drifting sideways and downwards. It has a dividend yield of around 4,51% which looks cheap, but it could fall further. We recommend apply a long-term downward trendline and waiting for a clear upside break - which does not look like it will happen any time soon.
JSE:CML
by PDSnetSA
$JSECML - Coronation: Is That A Double-Bottom Forming?Coronation has been in a strong bear market since peaking in November 2021. The bear seems to be losing momentum as price has traded sideways since September 2022 and it looks like price could be forming a double-bottom reversal pattern. The neckline of the double-bottom is still some distance ahead at 3850. A clean break above the neckline will confirm the pattern. What is also encouraging from a bullish perspective is that price is still holding above 2436 so the five wave advance from March 2020 is still valid. An aggressive stop-loss for longs is below 2868.
JSE:CMLLong
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Reversal Broad. Diamond on Coronation with target up to R38.28Broad. Diamond has appeared on the daily. Either the price breaks down as a continuation from the prior trend. Or the price breaks up. My bet is on the price break up. Thats because the low of the Dimaond is showing a Sell Side Liquidity Order Block. (Explained lower) Othe rindicators 7>21 Price>200 RSI>50 Target one is a short term T to R38.28. Break above this and we will have a larger W Formation that will send it to at least R47.00. SMC: Sell Side LIquidity Order Block - Bullish Smart Money buys into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter into their trades. ABOUT THE COMPANY Coronation Fund Managers is a South Africa-based investment-led, owner-managed business. It was founded in Cape Town in 1993. Coronation provides both institutional and personal investment management services. It is one of the largest and most successful asset management companies in South Africa. The firm is known for a long-term, valuation-driven investment approach. Coronation offers a range of products like unit trust funds, retirement products, and offshore investments. HOW IT GOT ITS NAME We're not sure, but we can speculate. The term "Coronation" generally refers to the process of placing a crown on a monarch's head, symbolizing their rise to power, authority, and responsibility, which could be a metaphor for the company's mission and goals in the financial sector.
JSE:CMLLong
by Timonrosso
1
Coronation Fund in a box formation - waiting for a breakBox formation is strong with CML. We need to wait for the price to break up or down from the formation, or it can be a long sideways move. If it breaks up the target will be R46.00 My bias however is more to the bearish side. and so if the price breaks below the current uptrend line and below the box formation, it's pretty much a given. Provided that that the breakout remains and doesn't become a fakeout again. 21>7 =200 RSI<50 Will have to wait and see.
JSE:CML
by Timonrosso