Our opinion on the current state of CAPITEC(CPI)Capitec Bank (CPI) is now South Africa's largest bank by customer numbers, with 21.1 million clients. Originally launched by PSG, Capitec has been a major disrupter in the local banking industry, steadily gaining retail market share from traditional banks by offering a simplified, lower-cost solution—particularly targeting the previously unbanked population.
The company continues to expand rapidly, adding approximately 90,000 funeral policies per month. Its annual average HEPS growth of 32.2% per annum since 2003 is an exceptional record, making it a standout performer on the JSE. In our view, Capitec is a "must-have" for any private investor's portfolio.
PSG has unbundled its Capitec holding to unlock shareholder value. However, despite its large customer base, Capitec still holds less than 10% of South Africa’s retail deposit base, as most of its clients are in the lower LSM segments.
On 19th January 2022, Capitec announced a BBBEE transaction, granting about R1 billion worth of shares to long-term employees who had been with the company since early 2019. While this share issuance caused temporary dilution and a decline in share price, it reflects Capitec’s commitment to transformation and employee retention.
Recent Financial Performance
In its results for the six months to 31st August 2024, Capitec reported:
- Operating profit up 41%
- Headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 36%
- Return on equity (ROE) at 29%
- Credit loss ratio at 7.6%
- Value-added services revenue up 79% to R2 billion
The company stated, "In August 2019, our ecosystem comprised mainly Personal Banking (Retail Bank). We had 12.6 million clients and offered the GlobalOne transacting and savings accounts, as well as unsecured term loans, credit cards, and credit facilities. Despite challenges such as COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and poor global and South African macroeconomic conditions, we have grown our active client base to 23.2 million and have built an enhanced ecosystem."
Future Outlook
In a trading statement for the year to 28th February 2025, Capitec estimates that HEPS will increase between 28% and 32%. The company attributes this to "the improvement in the credit impairment charge and credit loss ratios (CLRs) seen in the second half of the 2024 financial year, which has continued into the 2025 financial year."
Technical Analysis
The share has been rising steadily since June 2023. It is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.93, which is well above the JSE Overall Index (14.51) and higher than other leading banks. Despite this premium valuation, Capitec remains an exceptional long-term investment due to its strong growth trajectory and market position.
We believe Capitec should be accumulated on weakness. It was added to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 4th November 2023 at 185,496c, and since then, it has risen by 60% in just 14 months. Given its robust financials, innovative banking model, and customer growth, Capitec remains one of the best long-term opportunities on the JSE.
