$JSEFFB - Fortress: Double Bottom Targets New All Time HighFirst time coverage.
The two bottoms at 800 cps and 877 cps have formed a very large Double Bottom reversal pattern.
The price target for this pattern is 2500 cps.
Price has been trending upwards from 877 and the trend is well supported by mid-sloping trendline.
Buy the dips.
FFB trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of FFBFortress REIT Limited, trading on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) under the tickers FFA and FFB, represents a significant entity within the real estate investment trust sector. The trust manages a diverse portfolio that not only encompasses direct property holdings valued at around R30 billion, focusing on logistics, offices, and commuter retail sectors but also includes substantial investments in other REITs, notably Nepi Rockcastle and Lighthouse (formerly known as Greenbay).
Fortress operates a dual share structure, comprising lower-risk "A" shares (FFA) and higher-risk "B" shares (FFB). The "A" shares offer dividends that increase by the lesser of CPI or 5% per period, providing a level of income stability. In contrast, the "B" shares are entitled to any residual income after the "A" shares have been compensated, alongside a preferential payout in the event of winding up. This structure allows investors to choose their preferred risk and return profile within the same entity. Notably, Fortress still holds a 23.3% stake in Nepi-Rockcastle, underlining its strategic investment footprint.
The impact of the flooding in Natal in April 2022, which affected 4 properties or approximately 2% of its gross lettable area (GLA), was reported to be minor and non-structural. This incident underscores the resilience of Fortress's property portfolio and its capacity to withstand environmental challenges with minimal disruption.
For the six-month period ending 31st December 2023, Fortress reported a total revenue increase of 14.3%, despite a decrease in headline earnings per share (HEPS) for both "A" and "B" shares by 24.3%. However, the trust's net asset value per share (NAVB) saw a significant increase of 18.5% to 1624c, and its loan to value (LTV) ratio was maintained at a healthy 34.2% by the period's end. These financial metrics reflect a complex interplay between revenue growth and earnings performance, coupled with a robust increase in asset valuation.
The "B" shares (FFB) of Fortress are currently exhibiting a strong upward trend in the market, indicating their perceived value by investors. Despite the recent downturn in earnings, the overall financial health of the trust, marked by revenue growth, increased asset valuation, and a reasonable LTV ratio, suggests that Fortress remains an attractive investment option. The upward trend in the "B" shares, in particular, may reflect market optimism about the trust's future prospects and its strategic positioning within the South African real estate sector.
JSE:FFB Fortress B Effort Without ResponseThere has been an effort to push price higher without response. The effort is seen in negative divergence on the volume RSI and in the volume. I previously interpreted (See post below) this as buying pressure but the lack of response is pointing to supply being dominant. The markdown is set to begin.
JSE:FFB Fortress B Testing Patience There are buyers at R10 for Fortress B. After a selling climax (SC) at this level we have seen a high volume spring and now a test on lower volume than the spring indicating supply is being exhausted. I have been waiting for the markup that typically follows the spring (see posts below) but have had to be very patient. Last week we have seen a test and this could be that signal to go long.
JSE:FFB Fortress Reit Waiting for the Jump Across the CreekFortress Has been consolidating since a selling climax in March 2018 (See previous post). This consolidation looks to be an accumulation TR. We have seen a high volume spring and a test in phase C following the Wyckoff principles. I am now watching for a jump across the creek in Phase D (jump across the 200 day MA).
JSE:FFB Fortress B Markup in Phase D to Start?FFB seems to have undergone accumulation since March of 2018 and high volume today could indicate a markup in #D could start. The accumulation is noted by the low volatility low volume range. Today we have seen a high volume spring in the larger and smaller trading range (TR) that has formed.