FSR trade ideas
Firstrand Ltd - Ultra Short Term ViewAn extract from this morning's client research note:
Firstrand (FSR, 5908c) | The share has been sold off over multiple sessions, with the last fours closes below the near-term moving averages and the price now close to it’s swing lows.
POTENTIAL BULL TRADE SETUP: Look for a piercing candle i.e. trade below yesterday’s low followed by a reclaim for a move back to the 50-EMA and 8-EMA above. Note the last 4 days down has been on declining volume.
POTENTIAL BEAR TRADE SETUP: Traders should consider the potential for the price to trade below yesterday’s low and then reclaim that low, resulting in a piercing candle and potential bullish reversal for a trade back to the 8-day EMA. Chart: DAILY. Time Frame: Intraday/Ultra Short Term
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FSR (Firstrand LTD) - Short setup formingWe spent multiple months below previous support after a big down move.
We can now short the levels marked as there is a higher probability of it going down here due to the fact mentioned above.
It might not reach the exact level as marked by the position but this area is good enough.
Firstrand breaks with some volumeBanking stocks are starting to look good again. Buyers seem to have won the battle at the 50 day EMA. I’m going to start building my position at the open on Monday 2 August 2021. I’m going to buy 23 shares will an initial stop loss at R50.82. I’m also watching the following key levels R55, R56, and R57 to build the position. R50.82, R51.60, & R53 being defence prices on the way up
JSE:FSR Fistrand Failing at ResistanceA year back - see post below - we looked for push back to R55 - R60. After reaching this area of significant resistance on the weekly timeframe we have now seen a distribution trading range with a typical Wyckoff pattern. Selling pressure is seen in the volume and a change in character significant bar is indicating the start of a markdown to test the covid lows.
FSR From my the prior week's research report (10-May-2021).
There are times when you've really got to be patient with stocks (not easy). In this case it FSR where I was expecting continued 'chop' as the share attempts to break the year-to-date resistance (see potential price path on chart). So far we've seen a pullback (as expected) with another attempt to turn up in the last two sessions. The current level is in the middle of a broader channel which has been in place since November.
Below 5135c is temporary failure/SL.
Key level is the year-to-date supply at 5330c, which is what I was referring to in my report. If this level turns to support, it will add confidence to the idea.
Also, a broader update on my positioning coming into the week, as per my research report
Amidst the weakness thus far this week, I have seen some of my themes/views started to take shape (a big focus on relative performance).
Non-Comprehensive:
- Gold over Copper +4% yesterday
- Platinum bear flag in process of triggering. Support broken yesterday.
- IMP losing ground from multi-year highs. Down over 8% yesterday - Risk view based on monthly chart (resistance and structure). Short term, the R215-220 area is of interest to me (as a buy/long) - will monitor.
- Telecommunications vs the All Share Index. +1.72% thus far. TKG and VOD up +8% and 1.8% for the week.
- Food Producers positive relative to the market. The market responding positively to results TBS. Share has cleared the key +R220 level we have been monitoring since March, with the 200-week SMA as target (now around R265). Will monitor closely if price action turns negative but for now it continues to act well.
All the best.
FirstrandThis idea is part of a larger research report and should only be considered within a well-diversified portfolio.
- Year-To-Date Supply Being Tested
- Pre-Market Price: 5325c (10-May-2021)
- My analysis considers a buy/long trade as the price makes another attempt to clear the year-to-date overhead supply.
- Since November, the price has developed a gradual upward-trending channel, with a two zones of higher lows.
- Look for further consolidation, with a pullback to below ~5240c.
- Provisional Levels:
- Accumulation Area: 5180-5250
- Stop-loss: 4920
- Target Range: 5690c-5750c.
*Manage your own risk*
#FSR Making headway, or another false breakout We've seen a few false starts on JSE:FSR in the last few weeks, with positive momentum being sold into in the R52.50 area and buyers backing off. JSE:FSR on a decent run today, but will it continue to infinity & beyond or are the sellers just toying with the bulls and waiting to pounce & push it back to R50? Next R2 could go either way - up to R55 or back down to the R50/R51 area.
Long idea on FSR$FSR broke above weekly EMA200, closed above it only to come back down and close below the EMA200, which has now turned to resistance for this stock. Price has previously retested the trend line and moved higher. A recent MACD cross signals a move higher in price. Looking for a setup a long pos or a possible short back down to 5000C at support