LONG SA40SA40 has potentially found support as it has entered oversold territory and formed Higher Low point in a bullish channel. Buying at current 75600 will potentially yield 5000 points to 80000 and new all time high
J200 trade ideas
A lower high formationThe index may be en route to forming a new lower due to being pushed a bullish pullback!
JSE 200 next target up to 85,321 thanks to 3 Bullish signalsHigh Probability Analysis has lined up with the J200 (JSE Top 40)
We have three bullish confirmation signals including:
1. Up channel (Between the two ray trend lines)
2. Cup and Handle (Wait for break for complete confirmation)
3. Price>20 and 200MA
Target 85,321
Great for upside and buying stocks with the JSE!
J200 Pre-Open Market Analysis [24 OCT 2024]THE GUIDELINE THEORY STRATEGY
How To Trade Support and Resistance
J200 Pre-Open Market Analysis [24 OCT 2024]Guideline Theory Study
How to trade using the support and resistance, risk management
Why we always widen our stop loss when DAY TRADINGVery important and basic rule with Day Trading.
Always increase the stop loss when going short (sell) above the original stop loss.
Always decrease the stop loss when going long (buying) below the original set stop loss.
Reason: When the index touches the ASK or BID price (regardless of it actually trading there), it will get you out of your trade and hit your stop loss.
So, don’t be afraid to increase the distance between the entry and stop loss.
As long as the Risk to Reward stays above 1:1.5 – It’s fine.
How much do I increase the distance between the entry and the stop loss?
Notice what the spread is on the contract when you place your stop loss.
So wherever you wanted to put your stop loss originally, add the spread on top of that and that is where you would place your NEW stop loss.
Maybe 20 – 30 points is safe.
But other times it could be up to 50 points
JSE Top 40 LONG analysis still in check to 85,633Look I don't care whether the market rallies or falls. We trade either way and follow the trend.
But on bigger time frames, it states and shows us what is rather than what the media and Jim Cramer says.
And right now, the long analysis still applies for a few reasons.
1. W Formation, broke out and now going to test support 1 (Safety line 1)
2. Price<20 but still above 200MA which states the market is in a bull market.
3. If the price breaks below the safety line 1 it could go to 68,000 before it turns up again.
So all in all the analysis still has a weird up target to 85,633 on the daily chart.
And the market is still up 2.40% for the year - So it's not all bad babies.
When to PAUSE Trading – NOT Stop – 4 TimesThere is a time where you might need to PAUSE with your trading.
It will save you from a potential portfolio crash.
And it happens either when – The market environment isn’t playing nice with your system.
And there are moments when you need to step back from your trading.
But even when you halt trading, it doesn’t mean you can just take a vacation and chill.
No! The key is to track your performance each day, until the conditions improve.
This will make sure, you’re poised to leap back in when the time is right.
Let’s dive into the signs that it might be time to hit the pause button.
Big Drawdowns Over 20%
Picture this:
Your portfolio is sliding, and suddenly, you’re staring at a 20% drawdown.
It’s VERY rare – and I haven’t seen such downside since I started trading. But this applies to new traders who try to do too many things at once.
Anyways, 20% is Ouch.
If this ever happens, it’s a signal to halt trading and reassess.
Then you’ll need to analyze and see what is going wrong.
See if there is a flaw in your system.
See if the market is the right one to trade your system with.
Is it a market anomaly or is it psychological where you keep making silly mistakes.
Remember, it’s about surviving to trade another day.
Feeling Very Emotional with Trading Losses
Trading is a game of numbers, not emotions.
Now losses do sting. But that’s only when the risk is too high or you’re psychologically unable to handle them.
The trick is to manage emotions and take countless trades (wins and losses), to lower the effect of the losses.
But, if you find yourself riding an emotional rollercoaster with every loss, it’s time to halt.
Trading with a cloudy mind, over emotions and fear is a recipe for disaster.
Emotions can lead you to take impulsive and revenge trades.
And this will lead to EVEN bigger losses.
So, take a breather.
Step away from the screens and give yourself time to cool off.
Recenter your focus until you feel you have a clear, rational mindset for trading.
A trader who controls their emotions controls their destiny.
No Confirmed Strategy
Trading without a plan is like navigating a minefield blind.
If you’re unsure about your strategy or it’s not delivering consistent results, halt.
Spend time to refine and optimise your approach.
Backtest, analyze, and validate your strategy until you’re confident it can withstand the market’s ups and downs.
Only then should you resume trading LIVE.
A solid strategy is your roadmap to success.
Do Not Trust Trading
Trust is the cornerstone of trading.
If you find yourself doubting the entire process, it’s a red flag.
Maybe it’s because of repeated losses, unreliable signals, or just plain bad luck.
Whatever the reason, if you don’t trust your trading, halt. You will manifest a very negative outlook on what trading can help generate you during your career.
Remember trading is all about probabilities, risk and reward.
Use this time to rebuild your confidence.
Educate yourself, seek mentorship, and engage with the trading community.
Trust isn’t rebuilt overnight, but with patience and perseverance, you’ll get there.
Once you regain your trust, you’ll trade with renewed vigor and clarity.
FINAL WORDS: The Power of the Pause
Hitting the pause button isn’t a sign of weakness.
It’s a powerful strategic move to know when something is NOT working.
When you HALT trading you recognize when you need to protect your capital, preserve your mental health, and prepare for a stronger comeback.
Always track your performance and be ready to adapt.
Remember, the market isn’t going anywhere, and neither should you—just be smarter about your approach.
Let’s sum up the times when you should HALT trading.
Big Drawdowns Over 20%: Pause to reassess and prevent deeper losses.
Feeling Very Emotional with Trading Losses: Step back to cool off and regain a clear mindset.
No Confirmed Strategy: Refine and validate your approach before resuming.
Do Not Trust Trading: Rebuild your confidence and trust in the process.
DON’T Look at a screen all day! - Here's whyStop Watching Your Trades All Day
Have you ever found yourself glued to your screens, watching every tick of the market, and feeling the stress levels rise?
If so, you’re not alone.
You might find it productive and what is essential but it’s actually a more dangerous habit than you might think.
Watching every tick will rise your cortisol (stress) levels.
It might cause you to take impusive trades.
And you might adjust your trading levels when you shouldn’t.
And so in this piece of writing I’m going to show you why you should stop watching the screens all day.
The Cortisol Rush
Every time you check the market and see a fluctuation in your trades, your body responds by releasing cortisol, the stress hormone.
While cortisol is useful in fight-or-flight situations, in trading, it can lead to quick and unnecessary decisions.
And you’ll end up taking more lower probability trades than you should.
It’s time you lead a more balanced, stress free and calmer trading life.
Distraction from Higher Priorities
Trading should be a part of your life, not the entirety of it.
You shouldn’t obsess over every market movement.
Your job is to wait for high probability trades to line up, take them and then let the market take over.
Also, you the trick is to focus on other vital aspects of your life like: family, health, and even your full-time job if you have one.
Balance is key to sustain success in both your personal and professional life.
Now there are a number of benefits when NOT looking at a screen all day.
Benefit #1: Beter Decision-Making
When you’re not constantly reacting to market volatility, you have more time to analyze your strategies and make more informed decisions.
This way you can priortise in what is absolutely needed to act on when you do trade.
Benefit #2: Improved Quality of Life
Life is NOT just about trading.
So once you’ve taken a trade and reduced your screen time, you will be able to free up time for other activities that enhance your well-being.
I’m talking about things like exercise, hobbies, and time with loved ones.
A well-rounded life supports better mental health, which in turn can improve your trading performance.
Benefit #3: Increased Productivity
Believe it or not, spending less time watching your trades can actually make you more productive.
You will also have the right amount of energy and focus to set specific times to check the market and stick to a trading plan.
Time management is everything.
This disciplined approach can lead to better outcomes than erratic, all-day monitoring.
So how do you use your time for when you trade?
ACTION #1: Use Alerts Wisely:
Analyse and set up your trading alerts for specific price levels, when your strategy lines up or wait for my trading ideas where I do all the work for you.
Let technology or a mentor help you t so you don’t have to watch the markets to do the monitoring for you.
ACTION #2: Create a Balanced Schedule:
You should also take the time to Incorporate other important activities into your daily schedule.
This could include exercise, reading, or spending time on a hobby.
It’s all about creating a healthy work-life balance.
ACTION #3: Check and review your Trading Plan Regularly:
When you review and check your trading track record and journal, this will tell you whether you’re on the right path to growing your portfolio.
You need to base this time on looking at the stats, metrics, seeing the mistakes you made.
And where you are with your trading in total.
This only requires you to do this once a week or so.
And it will reduce the time you think you need to constantly check the markets.
FINAL WORDS:
As I always like to say sometimes less is more.
Drop the screen time and focus on what is important.
Lower your stress and keep to a well-balanced trading life.
This way you’ll be able to integrate trading in a more effective and profitable way.
Trade well, build wealth.
Why it PAYS to be a PATIENT trader - 5 ReasonsPatience isn’t just a virtue.
Patience is your portfolio’s best friend.
Now you might think that patience is just sitting on your hands and doing nothing.
It’s not!
It’s about taking the time to prepare, analyse and wait for when the moment arrives.
And that’s why you have to keep your eyes peeled and ready to take on the big bad market.
So here are 5 reasons why it pays to be a patient trade.
🚦 #1: Stops You From Making Impulsive Decisions
Ever caught yourself hitting the ‘buy’ button for the sake of taking a trade?
You’re not alone.
Impulse is the enemy of reason, and in trading, it’s the fast track to a thinner wallet.
Remember, the market will always be there tomorrow, but the same can’t be said for your capital.
Impulsive decisions normally yields LOW probability trades. And that’s a reason in itself to STOP doing it.
Why take the risk?
🔍 #2: Helps You Spot High Probability Trades
The markets speak to those who listen.
Patience gives you the superpower to cut through the noise and hone in on high-probability trades.
It’s like having a financial crystal probability ball.
Instead of predictive qualities, you’re armed with analysis, trends, and a likelihood of how a trade is more likely to play out.
Remember, more trades from all types of markets don’t mean more wins.
Often, they just mean more fees, more stress and more losses.
🤲 #3: Hold Onto Winners
Got a winner in play?
Cool…
Patience says, “Hold it, let’s ride this wave a bit longer.”
It’s the difference between a quick sprint and a marathon.
Sure, locking in profits feels good and it looks promising on the portfolio.
But in the medium to long run, it’s a traders kryptonite to defeat.
Trading patience whispers in your ear,
“There’s more to come,” and more often than not, it’s right.
🧠 #4: Takes Away Fixation
Obsession is a trader’s Achilles heel.
Patience frees you from the chains of market fixation.
This will allow you to take a step back, focus on other things and not get hung up on every markets ticks.
Stop fixating on your trades once you’re in.
You have the strategy in play, you have risk and reward levels setup.
Let them be and follow your strategy (regardless of whether it’s a winner or a loser).
🐆 #5: Wait for the Prey
In the wild, the most successful predators are those that can wait, watch, and pounce at the perfect moment.
A leopard will wait for hours in the tall grass. But when the probability is high and the leopard has done its instinctual calculations – it will pounce and WIN.
You’re not chasing every gazelle; you’re waiting for the right one, the one that’s worth the energy.
It’s about being proactive, not reactive.
You set your terms, your entry, and exit points, and then you wait.
The market will move; it always does. And when it moves into your crosshairs, that’s when you strike.
So let’s sum up the reasons it pays to be a patient trader.
🚦 #1: Stops You From Making Impulsive Decisions
🔍 #2: Helps You Spot High Probability Trades
🤲 #3: Hold Onto Winners
🧠 #4: Takes Away Fixation
🐆 #5: Wait for the Prey
EGO NO GO Traders’ Downfall: Six Actions to AvoidThere is NO place for ego and bravado with trading.
If it falls under your personality, you have been warned.
Do you know why?
Because ego and emotion are traders’ kryptonite.
In this piece, we’ll dive into the egotistical trader’s playbook and shine a light on six actions that could be crippling your trading game.
EGO NO GO #1: Overtrade: More is Not Always More
Overtrading is like trying to sprint a marathon; it’s unsustainable and a fast track to burnout.
You need to pace yourself or you’re going to get a spasm or a stitch.
As a trader, you’re not a machine-gun trader, firing rounds at every shadow.
You need to only look and wait for the highest probability trades.
Remember, it’s about the right trades, not just more trades.
Solution: Quality Over Quantity as I always tell my MATI Traders!
EGO NO GO #2: Revenge Trade: The Emotional Spiral
After a loss, I know it feels tempting to jump straight back into the markets in order to recover your funds.
But let’s face it…
Revenge trading is about as effective as using a leaky bucket to bail water out of a sinking ship.
Solution: Keep Cool and Carry On
Clear your head.
Take a walk, grab a beer – The market will always be there for you the next day.
And it will probably dish out even better trades.
Remember, the market doesn’t know you, and it certainly doesn’t owe you. Stick to your plan, not your pride.
EGO NO GO #3: Ignore Risk Management: The Silent Killer
If you ignore risk management, it’s like skydiving without checking your parachute.
What if you jumped and instead of a parachute you’re wearing a backback?
Don’t laugh, these things happen.
With trading you need your risk management measures:
Stop loss of less than 2%
Drawdown management when the portfolio goes down.
Risking money you can emotionally handle to lose.
Making sure of your trade size.
Checking your risk to rewards.
Ensuring you’ve protected your positions.
Solution: Plan Your Risk
Decide on your risk parameters before you enter a trade, and then—this is key—stick to them.
Your future self will thank you.
EGO NO GO #4: Dismiss Market Analysis: Gut Feelings vs. Hard Data
You also need to check the weather.
By weather I mean, look at the news events coming out for the day and week.
Is it NFP (Non Farm Payrolls)? – The day when you DON’T day trade.
Is it CPI (Consumer Price Index)? – The day you DON’T Trade
Is it FOMC where the federal committee talks and causes volatility?
Solution: Check the news events and be vigilant.
EGO NO GO #5: Blame Everything: The Pointless Game
When trades go south.
They look to blame.
They point fingers to their mentors, their strategy, themselves.
There is NO blame game with the markets.
If you followed your rules, strategies, risk to reward and everything else – You did the best of your ability for that trade.
Solution: Own your trade to Hone your trade It
Accept responsibility, learn from your mistakes, and grow stronger. It’s the only way.
EGO NO GO #6: Fail to Adapt: Evolve or Be Left Behind
The market is a beast that’s always changing.
I always say adapt or die.
Feel the general market’s environment.
Know whether it’s in a favourable or unfavourable period.
Tweak your system to improve your metrics.
Change the markets by adding or removing ones that aren’t working.
Take ego out of the analysis.
Solution: Stay Sharp, Stay Updated
FINAL WORDS:
I’m sure you already feel less egotistical when it comes to trading. And that means, this article has done it’s job.
Whenever you feel ego creeping in, remember this article save it and store it.
In fact go through all the articles that resonate, print them and store them in a file.
It will be your guide to trading well!
Let’s sum up the ego tendencies and how to avoid them…
Avoid Overtrading: Less can be more.
No Revenge Trading: Act with strategy, not emotion.
Stick to Risk Management: It’s your safety net.
Conduct Market Analysis: Never trade uninformed.
Stop the Blame: Learn and move forward.
Adapt to the Market: Evolve your strategy to stay relevant.
JSE Top 40 setting itself for great upside to 84,346Cup and Handle has formed since September 2023.
We are waiting for an imminent breakout.
With the new cabinet in play, stronger rand and weaker US Dollar with Granpa Biden bringing the US down. We are in for a potential rally with the JSE.
Question is, will the AMerican markets lead the JSE too?
When the US dollar weakens, we generally see a rally in their markets - which is great.
High Probability analysis as the
Price>20
Price>200
Extended uptrend has shown demand and buying being stronger.
Target 84,346
LONG opportunities coming our way.
6 INEVITABLE Stock Market DownturnsIn the world of stock trading, and crypto trading, volatility is as much a part of the landscape.
Whether you’re a day trader or a long-term investor you’re bound to undergo different degrees of stock market downturns, drops and crashes.
And each level of downturn has its own set of characteristics, challenges, and strategies for recovery.
Let’s dive into the nuances of market downturns, so you can navigate these stormy waters with confidence and savvy.
DOWNTURN #1: Down -2%: A Ripple of Volatility
Think of a -2% drop in the stock market as your morning coffee spilling over a bit—it’s unpleasant but hardly the end of the world.
This level of decline is typically seen as a blip of volatility, a common occurrence in the stock markets that often corrects itself in the short term.
DOWNTURN #2: Down -5%: The Pullback Perspective
When the market drops by 5%, it’s is often referred to as a pullback and, while it might cause a bit of concern.
However, if you look at the bigger time frame, you’ll see it might not signify a long-term trend.
DOWNTURN #3: Down -10%: Entering Correction Territory
A 10% drop is a clear signal that the market is in a correction phase.
This is where the uptrend will come to a temporary halt and the market will drop and correct itself.
You’ll see moving averages will cross down and the medium term trend will be showing downside.
You’ll also most likely look for shorts (sells) and take advantage of the correction.
DOWNTURN #4: Down -20%: The Bear Market Looms
Now we’re in the territory of the bear market.
This is generally characterized by a 20% or more drop.
It might be time to look into more defensive stocks or sectors, such as utilities or consumer staples, which tend to be less affected by economic downturns.
DOWNTURN #5: Down -50%: The Market Crash Crisis
A 50% plunge is the equivalent of a financial earthquake, causing widespread panic and uncertainty.
It’s quite rare, but when it happens, it’s all hands on deck.
We saw this in the financial crisis.
We saw this during the tech bubble.
We saw this with the oil crisis.
Silver Linings:
Even in the darkest times, opportunities can be found.
And whenever we’ve had a crash with world markets, they have turned up, made a come-back and moved to all time highs.
DOWNTURN #6: Prolonged downside: The Depression
This one I don’t have a number for you.
Unlike recessions, which are typically shorter and less severe, depressions are rare and can last for several years, causing long-term damage to a country’s economic health.
The most famous example is the Great Depression of the 1930s, which started with the stock market crash in 1929 and lasted for about a decade in most countries.
During this period, unemployment rates soared, reaching as high as 25% in the United States, while industrial production, prices, and incomes plummeted.
Conclusion:
Steady as She Goes
As I like to say.
It’s important to know that the downtrends, downturns and downside will come.
We need to be clued up and prepare for these situations.
That way we’ll take advantage as traders of what to do.
With the right approach, you can not only survive these downturns but emerge stronger and thrive profitably on the other side.
HOW to SPARK New Trading IdeasToday I want you to use your imagination.
I want you to ignite new, profitable and powerful trading ideas.
Let’s embark on a journey to ignite your trading creativity, transforming the mundane into the extraordinary.
Speak to Traders – The Power of Conversation
Nothing beats the raw, unfiltered insights you can gain from chatting with fellow traders.
It’s like opening a portal to a universe brimming with unique strategies and perspectives.
Whether it’s a casual coffee meet-up or a spirited discussion on trading forums, the exchange of ideas can light up that creative spark within you.
As you know I’ll be doing a lot more videos and live events, you’ll have the opportunity to share your ideas, analyses and ask questions!
Remember, every trader has a story, a battle scar, or a victory dance.
These are not just tales; they are potential blueprints for your next big trade.
Let Your Mind Wander – The Art of Creative Thinking
In the hustle of tick charts, Bitcoin rallies, and economic news, your best trading idea could be waiting in the quiet.
It’s time to get your creative juices flowing.
Take a walk, meditate, have more showers or simply gaze out the window.
It’s in these moments of apparent idleness that your brain connects the dots, craft strategies that you wouldn’t have thought of while staring at screens.
Give yourself permission to dream, and watch as those dreams morph into actionable trading ideas.
Explore Online – The Digital Goldmine
The internet is a goldmine for traders seeking inspiration.
With endless resources at your fingertips, from real-time market analysis to historical data, the possibilities are limitless.
Take the opportunity to dive into financial news websites, scrutinize market trends on social platforms, or get lost in the vast ocean of trading blogs.
Each click can unravel patterns and opportunities. And it will help propel you towards your next trading venture.
Remember, the digital world is your trading oyster, and every piece of information is a potential pearl of wisdom.
Trading Podcasts – Voices That Inspire
In today’s fast-paced world, trading podcasts are the lighthouses guiding traders through the fog of information overload.
They provide not just market insights but also foster a sense of community.
Whether you’re on your daily commute or taking a break, tune into a trading podcast.
Let the voices of experienced traders be the wind beneath your wings, propelling you towards new horizons.
Write Down Ideas – The Might of the Pen
An idea, until it’s written down, is like a spark that risks being extinguished by the slightest breeze.
The simple act of writing can turn this spark into a flame.
Keep a journal of your trading thoughts, no matter how fleeting or outlandish they may seem.
Over time, this journal becomes a repository of your trading evolution, a place where ideas can be nurtured and refined.
This practice not only sharpens your trading acumen but also serves as a beacon during times of doubt.
FINAL WORDS:
Remember, every great trader was once a beginner, armed with nothing but a passion for the markets and a willingness to learn.
So, let your ideas flow, for in the world of trading, today’s whimsy could be tomorrow’s windfall.
Let’s some up ways for you to ignite and spark new profitable and powerful trading ideas.
Speak to Traders – The Power of Conversation
Let Your Mind Wander – The Art of Creative Thinking
Explore Online – The Digital Goldmine
Trading Podcasts – Voices That Inspire
Write Down Ideas – The Might of the Pen
The Trading Matrix: 14 Vital Lessons DecodedThe Matrix is a movie where no matter what age you watch it, you’ll gain a different perspective from it.
And there is a wealth of knowledge and ideas that you can unlock when you dig deep into the movie.
A world where the line between reality and illusion blurs, much like the iconic film.
The Matrix, with its deep philosophical underpinnings and action-packed storyline.
It isn’t isn’t just a cult classic; it’s a treasure trove of lessons for traders.
Let’s decode a few trading lessons you can learn from The Matrix.
Building Confidence: The Neo Path
Remember Neo’s metamorphosis?
From Thomas Anderson, a man riddled with doubt, insecurity and worry.
To Neo, the confident savior of humanity.
This journey is similar to one that a trader takes.
You begin with uncertainty, doubt and worry.
You then develop greed and ego.
The market disciplines and humbles you again and again and again.
But then you develop the edge. You adapt to the trading world with gains, losses, drawdowns and different streaks.
And then you develop self confidence and resilience as a trader.
Like Neo, you might stumble, but remember, every setback is a setup for a comeback.
Confirmation Bias: Dodging the Bullet
Much like Neo’s iconic bullet-dodging scene, traders must learn to dodge the deadly bullet of confirmation bias.
Neo created some form of movements and hand gestures in order to stop the bullets.
But what he truly did was create confirmation bias that he was beyond the physics and laws of the universe. And this system is how he was able to go beyond the normal.
Create or adopt a trading system that with Confirmation bias, you can identify high probability trades.
And even though, you’re using some pseudo system that no one knows about. You’re simply turning chaos into financial order, to have a mechanical process involved – to grow a consistent account.
Only by actively seeking diverse viewpoints can you dodge the bias bullet and make decisions that are truly informed.
Take the Red Pill: Embrace Reality
Taking the red pill is about confronting the brutal truths of the market.
The trading world is not a bed of roses; it’s volatile, unpredictable, and sometimes harsh.
Those traders who take the blue pill –
Only look to win.
Only look to build their portfolio with an insane win rate.
Only look to go all in on certain positions.
When you take the red pill, you take on the realities of trading.
You acknowledge the risks.
You prepare for the drawdowns.
You know you’re going to take inevitable losses.
You understand that your past trading does not indicate future results.
Those oblivious traders – get destroyed.
Like Neo, when you choose the red pill, you choose to see the market for what it truly is, warts and all.
There Is No Spoon: The Power of Perspective
The “There is no spoon” scene teaches us the power of perspective.
In trading, the market isn’t your enemy; it’s your perception that needs adjusting.
Bend your mind, not the spoon.
Adopt a system which has a flexible mindset.
Be ready to pivot your strategies in response to market dynamics.
Success comes not from forcing the market to your will, but from adapting your will to the market.
Understand the Code – Understand the Matrix
Trading involves deciphering patterns, much like understanding the Matrix’s code.
The market moves up, down and sideways.
Given.
But with Price, Volume and probabilities – there is a proliferation of world of opportunities with each market.
Develop the ability to read charts, trends, and indicators.
Recognize that behind every market movement, there’s a code to be cracked.
Agent Smith and Market Manipulators
Just as Agent Smith represents a threat within the Matrix, market manipulators pose real dangers.
Stay away from markets with:
Too much volatility
Too many gaps
Unusual trading activity
Stay vigilant, and don’t be swayed by pump-and-dump schemes or misinformation.
They will disrupt your trading journey.
Training Simulation: Practice Makes Perfect
Remember the scene where Neo was practice fighting in simulations with Trinity and Morpheus?
He was testing, improving, adapting and learning.
You should do the same before you risk your hard earned money.
Test, Test, Test, Forward Test and Real Test.
Use demo accounts and simulations to hone your skills.
Make mistakes where it’s safe to do so, and learn from them without risking your capital.
Morpheus’s Faith: Belief in Yourself
Morpheus believed in Neo before he believed in himself.
Cultivate self-belief.
Trust in your analysis, your strategy, and your decisions.
Without belief, fear and doubt will cloud your judgment.
The Architect’s Plan: Strategy is Key
Understand the market’s architecture.
Develop a trading plan and stick to it.
Adjust as necessary, but always with the structure of your overall strategy in mind.
Free Your Mind: Emotional Control
Neo’s journey was as much about freeing his mind as it was about saving the world.
In trading, emotional control is paramount. You need to learn to let go of Ego, Fear and Greed.
These are your greatest enemies.
You can do this by:
Having a strong back tested track record to prepare for what is to come.
Risk even less until you don’t feel the losses.
Real trade with the smallest positions to get an idea on how the markets work and will operate when you incorporate costs.
Train yourself to remain calm and objective, regardless of the market’s ups and downs.
FINAL WORDS: The Path to Financial Awakening
Trading, is much like deciphering the Matrix.
It is an ongoing journey fraught with challenges, revelations, and the need for constant adaptation.
The key points to remember with the Trading Matrix are:
Building Confidence: The Neo Path
Develop self-belief through education and resilience.
Confirmation Bias: Dodging the Bullet
Seek diverse viewpoints to make informed decisions.
Take the Red Pill: Embrace Reality
Embrace the reality of the markets with all its risks.
There Is No Spoon: The Power of Perspective
Adjust your perspective and adapt to market dynamics.
Understand the Code – Understand the Matrix
Understand the code behind market movements.
Agent Smith and Market Manipulators
Stay vigilant against market manipulation.
Training Simulation: Practice Makes Perfect
Use simulations to hone your trading skills.
Morpheus’s Faith: Belief in Yourself
Cultivate self-belief and trust in your decisions.
The Architect’s Plan: Strategy is Key
Develop and stick to a well-thought-out trading plan.
Free Your Mind: Emotional Control
Master your emotions to remain calm and objective.
Is trading really gambling? Yes and no!I know why you’re NOT trading.
You think trading is nothing more than gambling.
I get emails every day from members saying things like.
“Timon trading seems like going to the casino”.
“Timon I don’t want to put money into something that’s gambling”
“Timon thanks but I don’t gamble”
So you’re not trading because you think it’s like gambling.
Well, before you send me another email like this – Please make sure you read this carefully.
Let’s dive into the heated debate and let’s see if I agree whether trading is just gambling.
Does Timon think trading is just gambling?
YES! I do believe trading is a form of gambling.
BUT – hold on…
Gambling exists in two realms. Chance vs. Strategy
There is chance gambling and strategic gambling.
Chance gambling is similar to playing slot machines, lotteries, and coin tosses.
It’s 50/50. And it’s all up to chance.
Have you ever heard of a professional slots player or coin flipper?
I don’t think so.
Then in the other realm of gambling is known as strategic gambling.
The strategic domain is where skill, knowledge, risk management, methodology, probabilities and decision-making play crucial roles.
And that my friend, is why I believe trading is a form of strategic gambling.
You do get professional and successful poker and black jack players, sports bettors and of course traders.
Right?
And that’s because you need skill, strategies and the right techniques to WIN as oppose to mere luck.
So before you quit trading because you think it’s nothing more than gambling, allow me to go one step further.
Let’s talk about the similarities between certain strategic gambling games and see how we can learn from them with trading.
Strategic Game #1:
Trading and Poker – The art of strategy and risk management
Poker and trading share a few similarities.
They both emphasize skill, strategy, and a sprinkle of luck.
But you need a deep understanding of the rules.
You need keen observation of the competitors.
You need adeptness at risk, reward and money management.
Poker players and traders alike must know when to hold their ground and when to fold.
Poker players put their cards down when the probability is low.
Traders either don’t take the trade, risk little in medium probability trades and use tools like stop losses to risk little.
Poker also teaches the importance of emotional control and patience.
And these as I have written many times before, are crucial in trading.
Because emotional decisions can lead to significant losses with both poker and with trading.
Next game…
Game #2: Trading and Roulette
Playing the probabilities
It may seem at first that roulette leans more towards chance.
Red or black, odd or even etc…
But the fact that you have a choice, means that it offers you some form of probability.
A fundamental concept in trading are probabilities.
Traders, like professional roulette players, use statistical analysis to help make informed and better decisions.
It is unpredictable what the ball will land on.
Just like it is unpredictable which way the market will go.
But if you have a sound system, proven track record and winning strategy – you will be able to base the probabilities and tilt the odds in your favour – over time.
In trading, while certain market movements can’t be predicted with absolute certainty, we rely heavily on technical, fundamental, statistical analysis and probabilities to make trading decisions.
Trading, much like roulette, is where you need to diversify your positions and bets.
And you can WIN in the long run if you follow your high probability strategy.
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack
How a maths boffon can win overtime
In blackjack, players make strategic decisions to outmaneuver the dealer.
The main goal is to try and get the cards we’re dealt to hit 21, be close to 21 or be closer to 21 than our opponent’s hand.
Bet too high past 21 and you burn (lose).
This is similar to trading.
You need to be able to analyse the marker conditions.
You need to be able to calculate your position sizes and risk management according to your trade line up.
Both games need you to have a balance of risk, strategy, and knowledge to succeed.
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing
Know your horse!
Now this is a game that has turned many statisticians into multi millionaires.
Horse racing is where you need to know and choose the right horse that will win based on its:
Form
Characteristics
Conditions of the race
Weather on the day
and other factors.
They study the characteristics, and race conditions to a T.
They calculate based on past performance on which horse has the higher probability of winning.
Traders need to know their horses (markets) too.
Every market you choose to trade, has its own personality, form, movements, and style.
You need to check to see if the chosen market has worked for your trading system and portfolio over time.
And you need to choose the right time, market environment and other factors – before you take on the trade.
In horse racing, experienced bettors also diversify their bets across multiple races and horses to spread risk.
With trading we diversify our portfolios over different accounts, markets, sectors, instruments and types.
Finally let’s talk about the last game:
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting
The power of predictive analysis
Sports betting, much like trading, relies on predictive analysis to almost see potential outcomes.
If you understand a team’s performance, strategy, and conditions – You will be able to make better betting decisions for the next game.
As a sports bettor you definitely need to know how to analyse a team’s or player’s form, weather conditions, past scores and more to predict an outcome.
Whether it’s football, rugby or cricket – you need to have your winning game plan to increase your chances of winning the bet.
Traders do the same. They have different markets like sports bettors have different games.
Traders also conduct similar technical, fundamental, sentimental, volume analyses to help predict potential market movements.
Both activities involve calculated risk-taking, aiming for high-probability successes based on thorough research and analysis.
Final words:
So, as you can see trading is MORE than just gambling.
Unlike games of pure chance, trading is a disciplined, analytical pursuit that shares more in common with skill-based gambling.
It does require you however to have the right knowledge, strategy, and strong risk, reward and money management.
Let’s sum up the games and sports vs trading so you can remember what we’ve covered today:
Game #1: Trading and Poker – The art of strategy and risk management
Game #2: Trading and Roulette – Playing the probabilities
Game #3: Trading and Blackjack – How a maths boffon can win overtime
Game #4: Trading and Horse Racing – Know your horse!
Game #5: Trading and Sports Betting – The power of predictive analysis
DO YOU THINK TRADING IS LIKE GAMBLING?
The JSE Top40 Paints a Grim Few Weeks AheadThe JSE Top40 powered above 2 key resistance lines but it quickly reversed course, we call this a false breakout (FBO), such failures usually move violently to the lower side. On the weekly perspective, the share is in week 31 so we are likely going lower than the lower pink support.
After the pink support fails, we turn can see the green arrow was lower than the black, from historical cycle perspective, the JSE Top40 will set the shortest yearly cycle if current price does not go lower than the green arrow. This is something I place at a smaller probability, hold on for a bumpy ride. Relief will come at the weekly low which will create gains sufficient for long positions.
JSE Top 40It's Been a Long Time, Glad to be Back! 🚀
Hey TradingView fam! After a long hiatus, I'm excited to dive back into the charts with you all. Today, my focus is on the JSE Top 40. With upcoming elections in South Africa and approximately 130 other countries going to the polls this year, we're bound to see some market volatility. But will this lead to a bear market? In my personal opinion, it's a no. Let's break it down. 📉➡️📈
Weekly Chart Analysis:
When looking at the weekly chart, which aligns well with long-term investing, the current market structure is very bullish. We have equal highs sitting at 75,921.75, and the price is currently in a supply level heading into the South African elections. With loadshedding expected to kick back in post-elections, this could fuel Rand hedge stocks in the index. The continued devaluation of the Rand is likely, given the weak economic growth and poor management of state resources.
What Does This Mean?
My bet is on the USD-denominated bonds hurting balance sheets, and we might see an Eskom bailout announced within the next few years. It’s still unclear how much diesel Eskom is burning to keep the lights on, but this could significantly impact the market. We could see prices hit all-time highs and then retreat to the 67,500 region, which should provide a decent entry with a target set at the 84,650 region.
If there's a risk-off event in global markets, let it fall to 57,675 before switching to the daily chart for entries. 📊🔄
Elections Around the World 🌍
Did you know that around 130 countries are having elections this year? From major economies to emerging markets, this will surely add an extra layer of excitement and unpredictability to the trading environment. Buckle up, it's going to be an interesting ride! 🎢
Final Thoughts
The blend of political events, economic challenges, and market dynamics makes this an intriguing time for the JSE Top 40. Keep your eyes on the charts, stay informed, and let's navigate these waters together.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. 📚💡
Happy trading, everyone! Let's make this year a profitable one. 🌟
STOP asking this dangerous two word questionWhat if?
This simple two word question is a psychological trap that traders often encounter.
And it does nothing more than undermine their decision-making process and overall trading performance.
This question will open a box of doubts, hypotheticals, and second-guessing.
This can paralyze action, distort risk assessment, and divert focus from the present to an endless maze of unrealized possibilities.
Let’s look into the psychological effects and what you can do to stop it from creeping in.
Psychological Impact
#1: Doubt and Hesitation
Constantly questioning “What if?” introduces doubt into the decision-making process.
For traders, you need to make decisions quickly and with confidence.
If you have any hesitation when you take a trade, it can lead to missed opportunities or entering positions at less than optimal prices.
#2: Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
“What if this stock skyrockets after I sell?”
“What if this stock isn’t ideal?”
What if this trade hits my stop loss?”
This type of questioning can lead to either:
~ Holding positions too long.
~ Not holding positions long enough.
~ Not taking the trade.
~ Or missing great opportunities that come your way.
#3: Overtrading
Conversely, the fear of missing out can also lead to overtrading.
“What if this is the next big opportunity?”
Regardless on whether the trade lined up or not.
You might be compelled to jump into trades without proper analysis or strategy.
This will increase your trades, costs and your exposure to risk.
#4: Regret and Rumination
Traders who focus on “What if?” scenarios may dwell on past decisions, and this could lead to regret and rumination.
This backward-looking perspective can hinder the ability to learn from mistakes and make more informed decisions in the future.
So let’s try prevent the WHAT IF? Scenario.
Don’t you think?
Managing “What If?” in Trading
#1: Develop a Trading Plan
Make sure you have a clear, well-thought-out trading plan.
This will help you to minimise second-guessing.
If you have pre-defined entry, exit, and risk management rules in advance, you’ll be able to reduce the temptation to ask “What if?” and instead focus on executing your strategy.
#2: Embrace Risk Management
When you understand and accept the inherent risks of trading can alleviate the stress of “What if?” questions.
Effective risk management will help ensure you to prepare for all types of outcomes.
And you’ll handle your losses without deviating from your strategy.
#3: Stay Present
You need to be in the NOW moment.
This way you’ll be able to avoid the trap of hypotheticals.
Ask the questions:
Has my trading system aligned?
What is my daily and weekly bias?
#4: Accept Uncertainty
Recognise that market conditions are inherently unpredictable as I’ve mentioned many times.
The only thing you should have your mind set to are the probabilities and possibilities of trades lining up.
No outcomes can be foreseen or controlled.
All you can do is follow your strategy accordingly and forget about the prompt “WHAT IF?”.
Final words:
I think I have covered all the ways you need to stop worrying about the unknown.
You need to stop asking “WHAT IF?”. And start saying “NOW DO”.
Let’s sum up why we would ask the hypothetical question when we trade:
#1: Doubt and Hesitation
#2: Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
#3: Overtrading
#4: Regret and Rumination
Managing “What If?” in Trading
#1: Develop a Trading Plan
#2: Embrace Risk Management
#3: Stay Present
#4: Accept Uncertainty
JSE Top 40 IndexJSE Top 40 Index
Short Term Rating: Overbought
Also highlighted is the reading from my model.
This highlights my view for 3x trading time frames:
Short Term ( 1to 10 days)
Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks)
Long Term (5 to 8 weeks)
STOP Overtrading with these easy stepsDo you ever get caught in the whirlwind of overtrading?
You’re taking a ton of trades because you’re bored, to make up for losses, for the sake of trading and to maybe feel productive.
It’s like Netflix really. You’re watching your favorite TV series; before you know it, you’ve devoured the whole season in one sitting.
Time lost and you get deep withdrawal symptoms.
Well, you need to seriously stop overtrading.
It’s one of the BAD habits that you can find yourself repeating.
And over time, it will lead to a ton of losses, a blown account and you looking for the “next” best thing.
Let’s get into it.
Recognize when you’re overtrading and then simply – STOP!
TO put it blunt.
Overtrading refers to the excessive buying and selling of financial markets that are often driven by emotional decision-making rather than a strategic approach. This leads to low returns and increased risk.
First off, it’s crucial to recognize when you’re overtrading.
There are a couple of times when you could find yourself overtrading:
Chasing losses
This is where you try to recover from a losing streak by getting into more lower probability trades.
The gamblers overconfidence
The opposite can happen.
You might feel invincible and the king of the trading world, after a series of successful trades.
And this could get you to take on more trades, without proper analysis.
And it could lead to you losing all your wins for the day.
Market FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
You might see a NEWS event come out.
Your buddy might have taken an enticing trade.
Or you just feel there is more profits you believe you can take off the table.
And so, you jumping into more trades due to the fear of missing a profit opportunity.
Boredom Fever
Your trader and time is passing and, you are getting bored.
In fact, you’re probably feeling unproductive just seeing on your hands.
And so you get into other positions to pass time or for the excitement.
And you disregard, your sound market analysis.
Attempting to meet unrealistic profit goals
Most traders have a maximum loss per day, before they stop trading.
The dangerous players try to have a minimum goal of a % win they want to achieve per day.
This is dangerous. And this can lead to overtrading and more loss taking.
Peer pressure
Like I said, you might hear from a buddy who’s taking trades.
You might hear from some economist or analyst who’s diving in.
And you’ll feel peer pressure if they get you to the point to follow them.
You have your own strategy, system and risk management analysis. You don’t need anything else!
Got it?
Top of Form So what do you do when you feel the sense of overtrading?
Here are some ideas.
How to stop overtrading with easy steps
Take a break
It’s like stepping away from a heated argument to cool off. It helps clear your head.
Pick your best times and days to trade
Not all hours are created equal.
Know the market rhythms and dance to the beat that suits you best.
Keep to your plan only
Your trading plan is your roadmap.
If your plan is to follow a mentor – so be it.
If your plan is to follow your own strategy – Go for it.
If your plan is to intraday trade, day trade, position trade or core trade – Just follow it.
Don’t venture off into uncharted territory.
Quality over quantity
Focus on making a few high-quality trades rather than a bunch of haphazard ones.
Think of it as choosing a super healthy meal over a fast-food binge.
Engage in other activities
Go enjoy other aspects of life. Trading isn’t EVERYTHING.
Go for a walk.
Play with your dog or cat.
Do other business.
Distract yourself with hobbies or exercise when you feel the urge to overtrade.
You’ll thank yourself for not taking any unnecessary trades.
Because you won’t set that dangerous precedent, which can continue at a later stage.
Final words:
Overtrading is doing exactly that. Taking too many trades without following your sound principles, strategy and analyses.
This can lead to taking low probability trades, increasing your losses and destroying your mechanical mindset and trading strategy.
Let’s sum up WHAT causes you to over trade.
Chasing losses:
The gamblers overconfidence:
Market FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
Boredom fever
Attempting to meet unrealistic profit goals
Peer pressure
And we covered ways to STOP overtrading by things like:
Take a break
Pick your best times and days to trade
Keep to your plan only
Quality over quantity
Engage in other activities
Now you know what to do to STOP OVERTRADING.
Go and don’t do it!
