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J200 trade ideas

May the Fourth Be With You - And your Stop losses!Star Wars has been around since 1977 which was written and directed by George Lucas. During that time, there have been phenomenal quotes, lessons and adventures that have been shared. Instead of telling you different lessons Star Wars can teach you about trading. How about I share some quotes and how you can apply them? Here are the ones I find are the most applicable. #1: "I find your lack of faith disturbing." Use this as a reminder to stay confident in your trades, even when the market is unpredictable. Have faith in your strategy. Have faith in your commitment. Have faith in your strong mindset. #2: "Your focus determines your reality." Stay focused on your trading goals and strategy. It’s not about what others see. It’s not about what others feel. It’s about you in your own work station, planning, preparing and executing accordingly. #3: "Do or do not, there is no try." Commit fully to your trades, rather than hesitating or second-guessing. When it’s lined up, ACTION. When you see a trade setups, write them down and prepare for execution. Don’t try… DO! #4: "Fear is the path to the dark side." Stay level-headed and not let fear or panic drive your trading decisions. Fear doesn’t exist. Only danger does. We are fearful most times in our head when there is no apparent danger. Remember this when you feel fear. #5: "In my experience, there's no such thing as luck." Successful trading is based on skill, probabilities and strategy, not luck. #"6: The Force will be with you, always." Here’s a reminder that your skills and strategy will guide you through both good and bad trading times. In this case the force is your proven strategy, your will, your commitment and your strong mind. #7: "You must unlearn what you have learned." Be open-minded and flexible when it comes to adapting your trading strategy. We learn as sheeple to buy low sell high. While I have gone against the idea and instead BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER. Also, when everyone buys, is normally where the Smart Money offloads theirs. And when retail dumb money sells, that’s where Smart money BUYS. Did you find these useful? Which one resonated the most with you?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
13
RISK less with Drawdowns and more with Winning StreaksA drawdown is a period of decline in the value of a portfolio. This is where you take a number of trades, and the losses drop the portfolio at a marginal level (if you know what you’re doing). During these times, the market is typically more volatile (jumpy) and unpredictable. And so you have a higher chance to risk money in unfavourable times. Risk less with drawdowns When your portfolio drops 6%, 8% or even 11% – This is where you’re not sure when the market will become more favourable. This is the time where you decide to risk less money per trade. You would drop the risk from 3%, 2% to 1.5% or even 1%. Then keep trading until the markets pick up and start to favour your portfolio… Once you’re out of the drawdown then… Risk more money with the winning streak During the winning streaks, the market is typically more stable and predictable, and the chances of making a profit are higher. You can then pump up the risk back to 2% or 3% (if you’re a risky biscuit). When do you do this? When your portfolio is either BACK to an all-time-high. Or when you can see the market has broken out of the sideways consolidation and volatile period. Risk management is an important aspect of successful investing, and adjusting the amount of money being invested based on market conditions is one strategy that can help investors achieve their financial goals. By risking less money during drawdowns and more money during winning streaks, you as the trader can lower your potential losses and maximize your potential gains.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Why YOU NEED a Slice of Humble PieAs a trader, you must approach the market with humility and an understanding that you are at its mercy. And so you need to remember that the market, doesn’t know you, doesn’t care about you, and doesn’t work to reward you. Let’s break that down. The Market Doesn’t Know You The financial market (Mr. Market) is a complex and dynamic system that is influenced by a multitude of factors. These factors are beyond our control and are pretty much impossible to predict. As a trader, you need to remember that the market doesn’t know you, isn’t out to get you and that your success or failure is not a personal reflection of your worth. The Market Doesn’t Care About You It can be tempting to think that the market is out to get us and that every loss is a direct result of our own mistakes. However, the market doesn’t care about us as individual. They don’t have some personal vendetta against us. Every trade is simply a result of supply and demand dynamics along with risk, reward and probabilities. We must accept that sometimes the market will work against us, no matter how skilled or experienced we are. The Market Doesn’t Work to Reward You There is such high competition with trading. This environment is very high-pressured. It sometimes feels like we are in some race to make as much money as possible. However, it is important to remember that the market doesn’t work to reward us. As a trader, you must be humble and understand that success in the markets takes time, patience, and you must be willing to learn from your mistakes. Also need to approach each and every trade with a level-headed and open-minded perspective. Focus on this, and you you’ll make which will help us to make better decisions and increase our chances of success.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
Daily Bias - JSE ALSI 40 - BULLISHWe ended the week on an awful note with resources dropping over 4%, with gaps down and with sudden breakaway trends. Looking at the bigger picture of the ALSI 40, we still remain with Bullish Bias. 7>21>200 RSI>50 And we seem to be making a Falling Flag, which needs to break up. Also with SMC, it's early days but we have the first level of liquidity (Sell Side Liquidity) where hopefully Smart Money has come swept the sellers with Long traders stopped and Shorters (entered). Them sweeping the Sell Side Liquidity is buying into it pushing the price up. We remain with a buying side bias for the week.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
WHY YOU Don't always Receive INTEREST when you are short... Q. I thought that when you go short (sell) that we earn interest (swap fees) per day. But to my surprise I was actually charged interest on my open trade with AUD/NZD. Was I not meant to earn interest?” A. Unfortunately, it depends… With each market you trade, you’ll need to look at the symbol information for each trade you take. This also depends on the deal the broker has with each market. For example, when you SELL AUD/NZD you're essentially buying NZD/AUD (as they are currency pairs). So whether you go long or short, you don't earn interest with short (sell) currencies... But make sure, you always look at Symbol information and see what swaps are positive when you are short. With the AUD/NZD you can see you pay -3.35% per year. That means each day you hold, you’ll have to pay 0.009% per day. Then with some commodities and indices you’ll either earn interest or you’ll have to pay interest when you short (sell). For example, with gold you’ll receive an interest of 1.23% per year. Whereas with cotton you’ll pay 5.4% per year. With the UK 100 FTSE, you’ll pay an annual interest of -0.24%. And with the Dow Jones you’ll receive 0.74% per year. Then with local and international stocks, you’ll receive a certain % of interest (swap fees) per year. So make sure you always check to see what each swap (daily interest fee) entails. This obviously depends on the Market Maker you're using and if you're using Trading View make sure you see the information from your broker what the interest swaps (fees) are when you go long or short.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
4 Ways to ACTION a trade - WHEN TO FIRE!You know that successful trading is… . . . . Patience. You need to wait for the setup, reason, system, lining etc… But then there is the 2% time where you actually ACTION a trade. We action a trade for three reasons. To enter To adjust To get out But we need to talk about these reasons more… Let’s do it., ACTION #1: Trade lines up – JUST TAKE THE TRADE! When your trading signal lines up with your entry, stop loss, take profit, and system: This is the most obvious time to take action. It tells you “HELLO AN OPPORTUNITY HS ARISEN” It is crucial to act quickly and decisively when this happens, as opportunities in the market can disappear just as quickly as they appear. ACTION #2: Adjust your levels – JUST CHANGE THE TRADE There are two levels you can adjust with your trades. Stop loss and Take profit. When the market is moving in your favour, and you have solid rules to move your stop loss in the favour. This is done to lock in minimum gains. For example. When my trade is 1:1 in the money, I might move my stop loss to just above breakeven. This way I have nothing to lose if it turns against me. Then when the market is shooting in your favour, you might want to adjust the take profit. This is because you can see the market wants to move further or… There is a new setup with a new take profit level in place – which happens often with my analyses. Action #3: Execute the time stop loss – JUST GET OUT When an extended period has taken place i.e. 35 days or 7 weeks. You might want to just get out of the boring trade. You are either : • Chowing (eating away at) unnecessary daily costs holding a non performing trade. • A trade setup seems null and void as a new contrary setup as formed. • Or it’s just a plain old opportunity cost where you can put your money in better places. it may be necessary to exit the trade in order to avoid incurring too much in daily fees or missing out on other better opportunities. Action #4: Exit due to unforeseen circumstances- SERIOUSLY JUST GET OUT! For example when a black swan event occurs: A black swan event is a term used to describe a market collapse (10X the standard deviationof its normal price move) that is unexpected and has a significant impact on the market. In the event of a black swan event, it is essential to exit your trade in order to protect your capital and avoid taking a bigger loss than you expected.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: A Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) - Smart Money ConceptsA Bearish Fair Value Gap is a 3 candle structure with a DOWN impulse candle (2nd) that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. WHAT DO THE IMBALANCES TELL US? These imbalances tell us that the buying and selling is not equal. Now the market needs to rebalance (move at least to 50% of the fair value gap to fill) to make up for the imbalance and rebalance. For this to happen we need to see orders filled in the prices of the candle with the FVG. HOW A BEARISH FAIR VALUE GAP IS CONSTRUCTED: 1st Candle Draw a horizontal line from the bottom of the wick. 3rd Candle Draw a horizontal line from the top of the wick 2nd Candle Draw a BOX between the bottom and the top and pull it over to see the FVG range. BETWEEN CANDLE 1 and CANDLE 3: Do NOT show common prices. They do NOT touch where the lower & the upper wicks do NOT overlap. With a Bearish FVG we can expect the market price to move UP. HOW MUCH? I believe a Bearish FVG needs to close at least 50%. So you can drag a Gann Box or a Fib retracement (take out all the other levels except 50%). Wait for the price to close and fill the prices and boom - Your Bearish Fair Value Gap has been filled. SO WHAT? When you see a Bearish Fair Value Gap, you can expect the price to move up. So you can place your stop loss below the downtrend. You can place your entry where it shows upside is imminent to close the gap. You can place your take profit above the 50% of the formation, as you expect the price to close. But also, we use other confirmation signals with the Bearish Fair Value Gap. Let me know if you have any other SMC (Smart Money Concepts) Questions.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Why you should NOT view LOSSES as LOSSESI want you to stop thinking of trading losses as losses. It’s having an effect on you emotionally and is stopping your full potential of growth. Financial trading, like any other business or aspect of life, involves costs. That’s just life. In business, there are costs associated with equipment, rent, salaries, taxes, and legal fees. In our personal lives, there are costs associated with household expenses like rent, groceries, insurance, medical fees, taxes, and repairs. Similarly, in trading, there are costs associated with normal losses, daily interest charges, and drawdowns. It’s crucial to remember that losses are an inevitable part of trading and should be viewed as a necessary cost of doing business. Just as a business owner must invest money in equipment, rent, and salaries to run their business, traders must also be prepared to invest money in losses in order to be successful in the long run. If you try to avoid taking a trade, because you are worried about the loses, you will miss out on the greater rewards for when profitable trading opportunities come your way. When you see trading losses as costs… You will be able to take a more objective and strategic approach to the trading decisions that you make going forward. This can help you to minimize losses and maximize profits over time. So there are few things you need to do to mange your costs (losses) emotionally and physically. Action #1: Set realistic stop losses Place your stop loss with every trade and never risk more than 2% of your portfolio per trade. Action #2: Understand the concept of Risk to Reward better. The risk-reward ratio is the ratio of the potential profit of a trade to the potential loss. By understanding the risk-reward ratio, traders can make more informed trading decisions and can better manage their risk. Action #3: Don’t feel your losses If you feel 2% is too much to risk, risk less! Get to the point with your life where a loss isn’t that much as with where the reward isn’t worth celebrating. Overtime, you’ll slowly grow your account and your mind too.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
JSE ALMI Take profit hit at 72,600 next trade is imminentInv Head and Shoulders formed on the 15 minute chart. We had an evidential Sell Side Liquidity Order block form around the Right Shoulder. This is where the price broke structure and we entered with our TP1 hitting 72,600. Next we have another setup preparing. We need the price to come back down to the most recent Sell Side Liquidity Order Block. sweep liquidity, turn up and break out of the downtrend . That's where we'll get our next Buy level around 72240. But I'll let you know as always!
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
BIG TIP OF THE DAY - Ride Winners and Cut losers BIG TIP OF THE DAY: If you want to ride up winners, lock in profits and reduce losers here is what to do. 1. Place your Entry Stop loss and Take profit (But have a TP 2 and TP 3 in place). 2. When the price approaches TP 1 (Close half of your position and move your stop loss to Breakeven) 3. When the price hits TP 2 (Close half of your position and move your stop loss half-way) 4. When the price hits TP 3 (Close your entire position). This is how to ride your profits and winners.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Why we MAKE Excuses as tradersIt is an innate habit to make excuses in life. We make excuses because it is the easy way out. And let me tell you. With trading, there is no EASY way. As I like to say trading is the easiest hard way to make money. It starts with NOT making stupid excuses such as: Excuse #1: “I don’t know enough about the markets – so I won’t trade yet” People don’t trade because of one thing. Ignorance. People may make this excuse because they have not put in the time and effort to research and understand the stock or market they are trading in. They make this excuse that they believe the market is a difficult, advanced and complex world to financially grow. If you passed school, or university – you can definitely learn how trading charts work and how the market operates. Besides, it’s just demand, supply and volume and the rest is micro and macro economics (which you don’t even need). I know some 20 year olds who dropped out of school to learn to trade the markets and they are doing fine (for now). Excuse #2: “I’m scared of losing money – so I’m not going to trade”. Sure you’re worried about financial loss and that you can blow your account. Besides 98% of traders fail, because of this. But you do know you can start with a demo (paper) account in the mean time. Once you see consistent paper returns and that you have a solid and adept strategy, you can start depositing little by little. Money is no excuse when you can learn to trade – for free! Excuse #3: “I won’t be able to stick to the strategy” Most people make this excuse because either: They do not have a proven and profitable strategy. They do have a strategy but do not have the confidence to trade it. They do NOT have the faith to actually take the discipline to take a trade when the system lines up according to the strat. They don’t think they’ll be able to focus on trading because, they are distracted by other things in their lives. This is a mind game, so work on yourself before you trade for yourself. Excuse #4: “I can’t stand the fact of losing” Back to ego, pride and integrity. Let me try and help you with this one. When you buy yourself clothes, cars or other material stuff. You do know you’re spending your hard earned money – poof – gone. With business, you have monthly costs fixed and variable. With life you have expenses and unexpected doctor appointments. All of these come with an opportunity cost. I lose this to get that. Trading shouldn’t be any different. You lose a bit of capital off one trade, to bank a higher return the next time. Rinse and repeat and your losses will start to feel like costs of the business. Your winners will feel like the money to pay for some of the costs next month. Cut your ego out because every week and month you spend and waste money – it’s called maturity. Excuse #5: “I’m waiting for better conditions” When the market Is not that favourable, how do you know when it will turn back? You just need one day, one week or one month – and your portfolio could head to all time highs. It’s not our jobs to trade when markets are favourable or not. It’s our job to follow the proven strategy because we know it will yield a consistent return over time. Also… When you do eventually get into trading – then what? Are you going to stop trading again because the market isn’t feeling right for your strategy? I should hope not. You’ll be entering into a discretion and subjective form of trading which eventually ends up to be a losing strategy. I hope this helps and makes you realise that excuses are nothing more than going back into a comfort zone of no change and progress… When later in life you’ll realise. Your comfort zone, was uncomfortable to begin with.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
TAKE PROFIT HIt - JSE ALMI at 72,603 in 2 daysWe got in on Thursday 6 April 2023 at 71,540. This was based on an Inverse Head and Shoulders formation along with an Order Block of buying from smart money in two different places. Then there was a public holiday on Friday 7 April then it was the weekend and then another Pubic Holiday on 10 April.... Technically, we've only been holding this trade for 2 days. SMC The price came back down swept Sell Side Liquidity and then the buying really kicked in on Tuesday getting us out at 72,603. Nice quick gain and waiting for the next setup.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
JSE Top40 (J200): Return of the BearsThe JSE Top40 is looking weary, I am looking at this as a setting up of a topping formation for the weekly cycle for the following reasons: 1. RSI has begun falling, building negative divergence while price is still ranging in what appears to be some distribution. 2. In recent times, the Top40 has not managed above 20% distance from 200DMA, best being out of October 2020 low +21%, we managed 19% currently. 3. The uptrend has been on for 21 weeks, unless we have a long cycle, we within time for a top before going down for +10 weeks. In this environment, one is best taking profit & seek shelter in shares that move contrary to the index. Price interaction with the green and blue trendlines will be of interest for the daily cycle going into March 2023.
JSE:J200Short
by runyamhere
5 DONT'S TO be a Better TraderWe know what we need to do to be a top trader. On the method side – we need the right markets, to trade the right strategy by following proven rules and criteria. On the mind side – we know we need to adopt a strong will, with discipline, passion and pure integration. But what about the DONT’S? What mustn’t we do during the process of becoming a successful trader? That’s the question we’ll address today. #1: DON’T fear losing Losing is part of the process. The trick is to lose (risk) little and make up for it during the conducive times. All trading strategies are not 100% market proof. This means, every strategy will reach a difficult period where the market environment does not gel well with your system. I lose 37.5% of my trades. I’ve been losing this percentage of trades for the last two decades… And you know what… I love it. I love the fact, how there’s a balance with my system which leads to a level headed and content approach to trading. Don’t fear losing – embrace it and OWN it. You only fail when you quit. #2: DON’T dwell on past failures Whatever trading process you’ve endured i.e. You blew a couple of accounts. You keep losing to bad strategies. You keep going against your strategy which hurts your account. This was and is your journey, time line and experiences that will turn into wisdom which will help you to excel with your trading… Just like we learn in life not to regret and not to carry our heavy weighted past on our shoulders, so to mustn’t you do with trading. Don’t dwell on your failures – because it’s those experiences that will help you flourish #3: DON’T expect fast riches With high reward comes higher risk. We are not in the risky business. And I sure as hope you don’t want to stress, worry and live on a high adrenaline knowing you can lose everything – trying to get rich quick fast… Right? Instead, you must want a get rich slowly BUT surely method. #4: DON’T compare yourself to others Big one… Sure, there are a few (not many) but a couple of traders who are doing extremely well for themselves. They probably don’t have it in their DNA to commit hours a day to helping others achieve the same – which is fine… But they all took the necessary steps, time, blood, sweat and fears to get to where they are. Just like you are going through your trading endeavours. Don’t worry about what others are making. Don’t worry about how many winners he took or how little losers she took. Don’t stress over his 70% win rate system or her “hasn’t taken a single loss in 2 months” system. You should have everything you need right in front of you. A computer An internet connection A broker (with a charting and trading platform) A proven and tested trading system Time Keep to your time line and don’t worry about what others are doing… When you compare, you lose track and focus on what you need to achieve your goals… #5: DON’T give up You are closer today than you were yesterday. And tomorrow you’ll be even closer (despite having a good or bad trading day). Money, you can always make back. Wisdom is something you only learn through experience. It’s nothing you can teach someone, but something you can keep them aware of – for when they go through it… So keep grinding, and keep at it… Perseverance my friend… That’s the key. Enough for today… Let’s sum up with the 5 DON’TS to become a better trader… #1: DON’T fear losing… #2: DON’T dwell on the past failures #3: Don’t expect fast riches #4: DON’T compare yourself to others #5: DON’T give up
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Inverted Cup and handle still activeThe SA Top 40 has seen a strong rebound over the past 6 trading sessions, but we still have a textbook inverted cup and handle at play. Price has only today re-tested the breakout level which also coincides with the Daily 100 SMA which should be acting as resistance here. Without a break above the regression channel @ 70880 we will likely see the downtrend resumed to the inverted cup and handle target near the lower end of the channel at around 66880
TVC:SA40Short
by FXAutomate