J200 trade ideas
The top 40 looking good for all time highsA nice bullish rectangle flag on the top40. Looking good to make new highs
South African Top 40South Africa s' rand retreatsas weak data hits buying,stocks stable
South Africa s' rand retreated on Thursday, putting a hold on a rallythat took it near a 10-Month High as weak local data dampened buying,while stocks were mostly unchanged.
at 1557 GMT, the Rand Zar =D3 traded at 15.0100 versus the dollar, 0.33 % weaker than its previous close. the Rand touched its best level from Mid February this week as global risk appetite lifted demand for the currency.
But the data showing Manufactoring output fell 3,4% year-on-year in October While Mining Output dropped 6,3% tempered investors enthusiasm. Retails sales data published on Wednesday also showed a decline, down 1,8 % year-on-year. Government Bonds yield Zar 2030= were flat at 6,930%.
Stocks were stable with the 3,1 % drop in the banking Sector ,JBANK weighing on gains. the Johannesburg benchmark all-share index ,JALSH dipped 0,02% to end at 59,283 points. Group MTNJ.J fell 3,5 % after Nigeria directed all Telecomunications firms to stop selling sim-cards while it audits rule compliance. Stocks JGLDX firmed 3,41% as the Rand weakened , with Harmony Gold HARJ.J closing up to 2,26 % at 64,65 Rand. South Africa gold miners benefit from weaker currency, as their revenues are often in dollars, while costs are in Rands.
So looking at where the JSE-ALL Share index stands we expect the Market to decline in the next upcoming months.
Analysis with Entries...
SA 40 (South African Top 40
Sell Now
Take Profit 1 @ 53 865.3
Take Profit 2 @ 53 418.6
Take Profit 3 @ 52 995
Take Profit 4 @ 52 533
#ALSI Bull flag breakout retestALSI saw a decent sell off today. This has resulted in a retest of the recent flag breakout. This support level needs to hold, or it could result in sell off momentum building it breaks back into the flag. A bounce is expected off this level.
J200 Top 40 Index . Bull flag breakLooking very bullish flag break today with 53800 and 55200 (All time high) targets.
Sell Limit!Price just cant seem to close above the 53 000 level on higher time frames and it has tried numerous times. When price tries something and fails multiple times it will often go the opposite. So i am taking a short on this index on the 1h time frame. Here price is already trading under the Kijun,which is above the tenkan (bearish signal). The cloud is thick so it will probably need a momentum move to penetrate it. The lagging span has a better passage down than up. The stop is is just above the kijun resistance. This increases R but we could also get stopped out,the risk is worth the reward. The trade is a sell limit,so i anticipate price will temporarily go up again and test the kijun zone thereby triggering the trade then from there plummet.
Sell Limit Entry: 52 591
Stop Loss : 52 848
Take Profit : 51 402
R : 4.62
#ALSI Big consolidation breakRubbing the crystal ball here a bit, but big breaks like the ones we've seen on the ALSI usually gets tested at some point in time to confirm the bullish sentiment. Last week was a 10% week for ALSI + an additional 1% today. Expecting some consolidation in the near future. Market is very bullish at the moment.
J200 Top 40 Index .Headed for the top of the channel ? Are we headed for the top of the channel once again ? Be prepared for some volatility during the US presidential election period.
#ALSI JSE ALL Share Index - Bottom of channel supportThe question now is if support will hold. If it does, we should see a little bounce from here.
JSE:200 JSE Still Getting WeakerI have not posted for some time but am looking to post more regularly again. After the covid shock, we have basically been trading in a range. Using a Wyckoff view this is expected after a selling climax. The question is now where are we in the trading range and are we seeing a redistribution or accumulation? Starting off with a comparison of the Top 40 against the S&P500 we see that the JSE has relatively been in a downward trend since 2016. However, the resources sector has been in an uptrend relative to the rest of the Top 40. After the covid drop resources have also recovered well. The financial sector on the other hand has not seen any rebound effect and remains at the low levels after the drop. So following strength, it is wise to focus on the resources sector when looking for a recovery.
CAUTION AHEAD!Caution ahead as price rejected 51300 trendline resistance of the falling wedge. On weekly chart the Index printed a Doji candle indicating potential reversal.
$J200 JSE TOP40 Index. Open air belowIf this down channel is anything to go by then there is some downside risk on the TOP40 Index in coming days, weeks. Trade with caution.
SA Top40 The SA Top40 index has been facing alot of resistance lately due to the current pandemic and political climate. The SA president recently announced that they will ease the lockdown to level 1. Good news for airlines (and tourism sector) as international borders are open and more businesses will hopefully be able to resume. This should boost investor sentiment in the short-run.
However, the index is structured in key levels/zones and recently has a strong downward trend. Thus, setup 1 or 2 can be expected. Wait or clear breakouts and retests confirmation to play it safe.
Descending triangle pattern Top40 indexWe have a descending triangle pattern on Top40 a break above 50700 resistance could potentially see us hit all-time highs at 55k levels.
J200 (Top40): aiming higher?💡 A sudden bullish bias is applicable above 50173.
Pivot point (trend change) at 50173 and hence is a bullish bias applicable.
Upside target (most likely): 51610.
Downside target (least likely): 48735.
JSE Top40 Index. Channel within a channelIf the smaller channel break to the upside we could see a 1200pts move to a test of the upper resistance line of the larger channel. Expecting some upside.
JSE T0P40I initially predicted a 17% decline on JSE TOP40, the move is well in motion. See link below
South Africa has had one of the worse lockdowns in response to covid19 and it resulted in a reported decline of 51% in GDP. The unemployment numbers and number of business bankrupted are not yet publicly available. South Africa also increased its USD debt during this crisis and in a lot of ways money meant for economic recovery was lost to corruption. During this period there's also been increases in social grants and introduction of new ones despite the decrease in production.
When more of the data becomes available i think the stock market will keep falling further, though i doubt new lows could be made, but i am very convinced the we could see prices falling to a range of about 34,000 - 35,000.
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Good Luck!!!
Top 40 (J200)The index has continued to trend lower, with a 4-day decline following the rejection at the aforementioned downward trending overhead resistance. On Thursday, the 8/21-EMA was breached with a large bearish igniting candle. Considering Friday's US close, the 50224 level is vulnerable to being breached which opens up 49686 as a target. If we do see a rebound at the open, combined with an intraday rebound then the 8-EMA could act as a resistance level.
This chart forms part of a larger research report and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell.
