Lets retest then fallafter the breakout, we might see J2 going up a little bit to retest then after that fall smoothly
J200 trade ideas
TOP 40 - Bears in ControlWe may derive the following from the Weekly J200 chart:
1. Price has fallen as previously analysed (See linked idea).
2. Some profit can be taken.
3. A correction phase over the next few weeks is likely.
4. Keep holding.
5. As always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
JSE:J200 Top 40 Markdown About to StartAfter a backup to the TR we see some supply volume pushing the price down. There is a negative divergence on the RSI. We have been waiting for the breakdown (See posts below) which finally seems to have started.
JSE:J200 Top40 Another Opportunity to go ShortAfter forming a top and breaking below the TR formed we have now seen a back up to the range. This gives another opportunity to go short.
JSE:J200 Top40 Still Looking for Shorts on the JSEFollowing on from last weeks post the market has formed a top and broke out of the short distribution range formed at the highs. Due to the short TR we need to be conservative with the targets.
JSE:J200 Market Has TurnedLast week high volume pre-warned the decline that has started (see post link below). This indicates a good time to look for shorts.
JSE:J200 Top 40 Effort without responseLast week there was some high volume (effort) but with no progress in price (response). This indicates that some selling is taking place. After breaking the channel there has been a low volume pullback. Now after a retest, there is some volume and now I am expecting a decline in the next week.
TOP 40 - Simple AnalysisLooking at the TOP40 Index, we may derive the following from the weekly chart:
1. Price is at a notable resistance level where many rejections have occurred.
2. Prince is backtesting the weekly trend line break (purple line).
3. I am favouring a move to downside.
4. Since we are at a high, the risk is far less than trying to short once the move has occurred (if it does).
5. As always - maintain your risk management.
Let's see what happens.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
SA40 maybe a bullish H&S Got good support on orange line. Looks like a upside down head and shoulders forming. Think it is a good entry close to orange line......
J200 - TOP40 JSE:J200
For people that like fractals.
Drop in October 2018 was 12 days long and drop 9% from the top or some 5000 points
Current drop is 13 days long same 9% and almost same 5000 points.
So if history repeats itself TOP40 should bounce for the first pull back.
But as it stands now this will be just pullback and more downside is on cards.
$TOP40 Head & Shoulder Breakdown (bearish)The top40 index (J200) has now broken two very important levels and is not looking healthy at all! Firstly we have broken down from the rising channel which has been in place for the best part of this year. Secondly, we have today broken below the 49200 level which is the neckline and horizontal support of the head & shoulder pattern. Based on the break of this neckline, the pattern projects a target of 45000.
Top40 - How I miss the good old days!This is not a pretty sight. Should we close at current levels (below 48950), next support levels only seem to be at 47000, which is very much where we started the year. We can clearly see that since the support channel broke on 9 May 2019, that the $JTopi’s momentum turned negative and still worsen every day. The Index is finding itself at extreme oversold levels according to its 14-day RSI.
Personally, over the short-term, I will wait for momentum to turn a bit. If not, I will most probably re-evaluate at around 47000 points.
Buy opportunity on South African stocks.The market is approaching the 48,940 Support. 1M is supported there (RSI = 52.867, MACD = 574.500, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) and the current dip is a solid medium term buy opportunity. Assuming that a roughly -2% Lower High sequence will be maintained we place the next medium term target at 52,200.
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JSE:J200 Top40 Waiting for the ElectionThe Top40 has had a great run since the start of the year. On the way up there were two occasions when institutional supply entered the market (seen by the high volume) but was unable to stop the advance. Now the market has reached the highs were previous institutional supply occurred. However, the volume has declined in the leadup to the elections. Trading volume can be expected to be low until the elections are over and the market can decide a direction. Something to note is that the RSI has made a negative reversal and once volume returns to the market we could have a volatile decline.
J200J200 H4 (240 Minute) Timeframe
Reasons For Entry :
- Trendline Breakout
- Expanding Wedge
- RSI
Everything Good Yearns Patience And Time
Disclaimer: Trading stocks, commodities, futures and forex has a level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
J200Within a bigger bullish trending channel there is a smaller bullish trending channel as well, the breakout of the smaller channel will be perfect entry for trendline breakout traders to target the support line of the bigger channel.
Sa 40Shorting opportunity. Low risk to reward ratio. Short on the 4h chart. Monthly trend line hit as resistance. Trading in 4h channel for a while now.
JSE:J200 Top40 Divergence with Number of Stocks above 50 & 200MAConsidering the number of stocks above the 50 and 200 daily MA we have seen a divergence with price. Price is making new highs but the number of stock above the MAs are decreasing. This indicates some weakness developing in the market and potentially and need to watch for reversal at resistance.
$JTopi at very interesting levelsI'm very bad at calling "tops" & "bottom". If the market taught me anything over the past 25 years, is to NEVER jump in front of a moving train ;-)
Looking at the Top40 technically, it does seem like we're in "overbought" territory according to its RSI.
The trend is however very strong (moving averages are also starting to "smile"), we saw a "Golden Cross" on 26 March (very positive) and we could possibly go and test that resistance at 51,850 (if you're short - this could possibly be your stop-loss). Be VERY careful calling a top!!
J200 top40 looking exhausted... $JSE $j200I have decided to have a deeper look into the technical structure of our top40 index which should give you a better technical view of what to expect from our market. Firstly interesting to note is that price has rejected off the 61.8% fib retracement using the last swing high and low that we saw between August and October last year. We have seen numerous topping tails below this fibonacci retracement whereby the market has tried to rally but price fell back to the lows of the day by the close (bearish characteristic which shows that sellers are appearing on any attempted rallies). Also interesting to note that the RSI has broken out of its uptrend, and has now retested this level and failed today. A convincing close below 49200 should give me confidence that we have seen a top in our overall top40 index. Caution advised going forward..
