J200JSE:J200
Blue line J210 RESI 10
Yellow line J211 INDI 25
Green line J212 FINI 10
Red line top40 J200
Resi strongest pulling J200 higher, Fini weakest.
J200 trade ideas
J200 - TOP40 hourly chartJSE:J200
Making head and shoulders on hourly. If neck line gets broken target around 48600.
Top40 IndexThe Top40 Index recent weakness confirms my views of a strong recovery being set in motion!
The 47 000 level held ! .. so get ready for a strong move towards the 49000 levels.
Implied volatility is agreeing with my assertion getting clobbered to Mar'19 and Jun'19 expiration!
Falling over 2.5v over the course of just two days!
J200 :JSE TOP 40Theres an expansion forming in a triangular shape as its continuously giving higher highs and lower lowe. I anticipate a drop in the pair for a number of reasons towards the support.
J200 (TOP40) hourlyJSE:J200
Hit resistance from November 2018. Making broadening formation.
Back to test bottom of that formation now?
JSE:J200 Top40 at the Top of the 'Trading RangeOn the daily timeframe (TF) following the Wyckoff logic, there was a change of character that formed a Trading Range (TR) with the Selling Climax (SC) and Automatic Rally (AR). This is at the bottom of a larger TR on the weekly TF (See post below). After a Secondary Test (ST) of the lows, the price is testing the top of the TR again. This is also the 2019 Yearly Pivot Point and 200Day MA. We are now in Phase B and expect a contraction in volume and a test of the lows in Phase B before we can look for Phase C and a move out of the range. Negative divergence on the TDI (RSI) also indicates a possible move down.
JSE:J200 Top 40 Approaching Resistance After a Change of Character (CoC) and major Sign of Weakness (SoW) the JSE Top 40 has been seen the start of a smaller trading range (TR). Price is now approaching the top of the TR (Round number 49000) with confluence with the 200 Day SMA and the 2019 Yearly Pivot Point. The Rally is seen on lower volume than the decline and negative divergence with the RSI. Looking for a reaction to confirm a move to the bottom of the TR in the week to come.
JSE:J200 Top 40 Still Indicating WeaknessReconsidering the evaluation of the trading range (TR) it could be evaluated as an inclining TR. The initial part of the trading range had some signs of accumulation but after an up thrust (UT) a strong distribution character has emerged. Before the end of 2018 price had a change of character (CoC) with signs of weakness (SoW) on increasing volume. Now the Top 40 is attempting a week rally to the 200 Day SMA and new Yearly Pivot Point on decreasing volume. The number of stocks above their 200 D SMA has increased but is still below 50% and in a declining trend. The number of stocks above their 50SMA can also be seen as slightly declining. If the evaluation of an inclining TR is correct the Top 40 has however not broken the TR. Will be watching the next reaction to the downside to see how the small recent TR develops for continued distribution or accumulation.
J200 _ Top40JSE:J200
If you invested in TOP40 index (J200) in South Africa at the beginning for 2015 and hold till now your return would be ZERO.
J200 :Top40 Index Failing to break 47 000 Been building a good base at 45500... Thought we would take out this 47k level with ease....
Subsequent to this bullish move over the past few day's we note end -users sellers of ALSI 48k covered calls to Mar'19 in decent size.... trading at 20v...
So market going to be long gamma at this level... 47k also getting slammed over the past few days trading as low as 20.00v...
I'm of the view that we possibly see a move back towards the 45000 / 45500 levels just to test this support again!
J200 Top40JSE:J200
Failed to break from sideways consolidation and so far making what is called PIN bar or big inverted hammer.
This looks very bearish to me.
J200 Top40JSE:J200
Stuck in 2500 points range with few fast jumps out from early October.
No follow through in our market for whatever reason.
JSE TOP40 - Overshooting the mark ? Top40 looking stretched here. Wonder if we can see a little bounce here.....
JSE:J200 JSE Looking Like DistributionThe range in the JSE Top40 index that started in April 2015 seems to be a distribution range. Following the Wyckoff logic, we could have seen an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and test at the highs at the end of 2017 / beginning of 2018. Now we see an increase in the spread to the downside of 8 to 11 to 12 to 19% indicating a bearish Change of Character (CoC)Using the total sum of volume for Top 40 stocks there is also an increase in volume during these moves to the downside indicating that stocks have been transferred from strong to week hands. Since the last down move, we have seen a week attempt to rally. My bias for 2019 is that the Top 40 could see a resolution of the trading range to the downside. How the current potential Last Point of Supply acts (LPSY) in the new year will clarify if a markdown is about to begin. If the distribution is confirmed I will be looking for laggards in the Industrial sector which is currently the weakest sector to trade (see the previous comparison of sectors in the links below).
Resource Still Showing StrengthSince 2016 the JSE has been declining relative to the S&P 500 but December has shown a change in character with the JSE consolidating while the S&P 500 declined. The Resources sector has been leading the charge and trading in a strong upward channel. In December the resource has reacted to the demand line and is showing strength going into 2019. Resources are further the only sector above its January 2018 high.
Index strengthJ200
J210
J211
J212
Over last few days RESI (blue line) was over performing but looks like now it is way stretched to the top
Looks like FINI (green line) is ready to run now
J200 - TOP40JSE:STX40
Currently hourly chart making falling wedge so it should be bullish
But if bottom got broken will probably see 40000 in days to come.
SA 40 Index 5 RRR longTrading Methodology:
1. An asymmetric bullish/bearish pennant is drawn using ascending and descending curved trend lines with a minimum of three price action touche points per line. The direction is determined by the previous trend.
2. The angle tool is applied from the earliest two trend touch points, beginning at the earliest touch point.
3. A trend-based Fibonacci retracement triangle is drawn starting from the earliest trend touch point and ending at the earliest touch point of the opposite trend line .
4. Based on the degree, of the earlier defined angle, the appropriate (and secret) levels are selected for the fibonacci retracement ; two levels for stop-loss and two levels for take-profit. The closest stop-loss level to the current price level is the top priority stop-loss. Though the secondary stop-loss level is often chosen for some markets such as FX and some equities in order to account for seldom unexpected resistance breaks. The greater target level is the top priority, and where majority of the shares are sold, though some may choose to close part of the position at the first target level or set it to be the stop-loss once price exceeds it. Entries should be laddered in around the levels closest of the yellow line.
This trading strategy can be applied to any market and time frame, and positions most often garner the greatest risk-to-reward ratio with the highest success rate. What more can you ask for? I will only be posting my unique trading strategy until EOY. I work solely with price action to identify pennants and apply unique trend-based fibonacci retracement levels for SL and TP levels. Reach out to me if you have any questions.
JSE:J200 Number of Stocks in Top40 Above Moving AveragesI coded this indicator for the JSE. The indicator gives the percentage of stocks above its moving averages. We see that the JSE has less than 20% of the stocks above its 200 Day SMA and about 50% around its 50 Day SMA. If we look at previous analogs at the start of the trading range there was a declining trend in the 200 SMA but inclining trend in the 50 SMA which lead to some recovery. However, currently the 200 SMA is declining but the 50 SMA is not printing higher highs which seems to indicated continued weakness.
TOP40 J200JSE:J200
Made inverted head and shoulders with neckline been backtested.
If plays out target will be around 48000/48500
