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J200 trade ideas

JSE Top40: At Pitchfork ResistanceThe JSE Top40 index has been trying to break the resistance of the Pitchfork to the upside, however it has continuously met failure, now price is within the timing band to drop into a half cycle correction into the end of June 2023. The line in the sand (on chart) is 69,756.50, going below this at any moment means we are in for a deeper correction. This is a high probability scenario given that the US dollar index (DXY) is showing signs of bottoming.
JSE:J200Short
by runyamhere
The Power of Trading Tunnel VisionAs humans. It’s tough. In this day and age, it feels impossible to just focus on one task at a time. You’re already shifting your attention. As you read this! You’re thinking about: What to eat, what you’re missing on Facebook, how boring this article is going to be, what’s on TV tonight, bills you have to pay, how else can you make bread for your financial future. Right? You can’t help it. It’s a disease. It’s affecting most people. It affected me for most of my life. And I think it’s one of these reasons why people are: NOT happy, NOT succeeding with their goals and NOT building their lives the way they want to. It needs to stop TODAY! Just do me one favour… Try and focus on one goal at a time. Get through this article first, move onto the next thing. Think of a racehorse. For them to be focused, avoid danger, remain undistracted and see the goal… They need to wear blinkers. So let’s put on our blinkers and let’s see why tunnel vision is the very skill you need to succeed. Not just with trading. But with every endeavour you embark to achieve and succeed. #1: Sharper Focus Tunnel vision allows you to concentrate and direct your attention to one thing at a time. Your analysis. Your setups. Your execution. Your modifications. Your reporting and reviewing. #2: Less distractions When you cut out your distractions, you will make more better decisions as a trader. It’s a skill. Put your phone away. Close your social media windows right now. Clear your desk and cupboards. Take the dog or cat out. Switch off the TV. Focus on your trading each day or when you do trade. #3: Better Risk Management When you are just about to take the trade. Make sure you double check your maths, volume trading size – according to what your portfolio is currently valued at. You don’t understand how many people make mistakes with: Wrong sizes, miscalculated levels and incorrect risk and reward. Protect and safeguard your trades with careful risk management consideration. #4: Speed up results and optimise your tasks: When you focus on one task at a time, this might be surprising but. You will finish sooner than you thought. When you put in your full – time, capital, and mental energy – you’ll be more efficient, productive and more laser focused. #5: Reduced Stress Of course when there are less distractions, less worry and less things to deal with at a time – this drops your stress. And I know you have stress right now. It’s the state of the world with the fast-paced connectivity and exponential developments. But when you narrow your life down to one thing at a time, I promise your stress will drop which will help with your trading decisions. #6: Superior strategy understanding By concentrating on a particular strategy or system, you will find that you’ll build a more profound understanding to where, why and how you’re putting your money. Master the strategy and only that one and you’ll see how far you’ll go. #7: Consistency and perseverance When you adopt tunnel vision in your life, you will begin to be more disciplined with your approach. This will lead to more consistency in your trading results. And you’ll find it will promote a stable growth of your portfolio. #8: Clearer Goals to achieve Like the horse sees the goal ahead. When you focus your attention on your goals and what you need to do to achieve them, one step at a time. You can track your progress more effectively. You can steer your trading in a better direction. You can take control of your trading with lightning focus. #9: Keeps you in the Now Time is fleeting. Before you know it, you’re in bed ready to wake up and repeat the routine. But what if, because you’re living so much in your head, that’s why time is going so quickly. I mean, right now I am only focusing on writing this article. And I’m putting in all my heart, energy and soul. And because there are no distractions, I FEEL the present. I feel time going slowly with each typing. So maybe you should to. Do everything in the present. Do it with full focus. Do it with heart. Do it with optimism and care. And this will have a positive effect on your trading.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Why Impulse Trading is DANGEROUS – 19 ReasonsJust to get you up to scratch. An impulse trader in the financial markets is someone who makes trading decisions based on sudden emotional reactions rather than structured and informed strategies. They often buy or sell markets due to fear, greed, or other emotions, disregarding systematic analysis and rational judgment. Being an impulse trader can be dangerous for the following reasons: Neglect of thorough research: Impulsive traders often disregard the need for comprehensive market analysis. Emotional trading Decisions are often driven by emotions like fear or greed. Increased risk Impulsive actions often lead to unnecessary risk-taking. Loss of capital Quick decisions can lead to significant financial losses. Overtrading Impulse trading often leads to overtrading, resulting in higher transaction costs. Lack of discipline Impulsive trading discourages the development of disciplined trading habits. Neglect of risk management Impulsive traders often disregard the importance of risk management. Increased stress The anxiety of impulsive decisions can lead to physical and mental stress. Unstable performance Results can fluctuate wildly due to inconsistent decision-making. No strategic planning Impulse trading contradicts the idea of having a clear, consistent trading strategy. Short-term focus Impulsive trading often focuses on short-term gains, neglecting long-term profitability. Dependency on luck Impulsive trading can become akin to gambling, relying more on luck than skill. Failure to learn Impulse trading does not encourage learning from mistakes or experiences. Neglecting stop loss orders Impulsive traders often neglect to place stop loss orders to limit their losses. Fear of missing out (FOMO) This emotional reaction can lead to poor trading decisions. Revenge trading Trying to recover losses quickly can lead to more losses. Market timing Trying to time the market perfectly is nearly impossible and can lead to losses. Ignoring the broader economic context Impulsive traders often neglect broader market conditions. Potential for addiction The thrill of impulse trading can become addictive, leading to a dangerous cycle.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
My Trading Routine - Not that you care It’s no holy grain, but routine is crucial. You need to find what works vest for you. This way you’ll be able to streamline your trading activities. Here, I lift the curtain to reveal my daily trading routine — a blend of ritual, strategy, and discipline that helps me navigate the markets with confidence. My routine is not a magical formula for instant success, but a systematized approach that helps me get up and just get to it. Make Coffee First, the trading day starts with a good cup of coffee, lemon water and yoghurt and muesli. It’s not just about the caffeine kick, but also the ritual involved. Brewing coffee and the other bits, gives me time to mentally prepare for the day, clear my mind from distractions, and focus on the tasks ahead. The lemon water, kickstarts the stomach and neutralises the acids. Try it. It’s my simple, personal ritual that sets the tone for the rest of the day. Open My Charting Platform Once I’m caffeinated and alert, I log into my preferred charting platform. I use TradingView for the charts and a few trading platforms with the brokers. It’s essential to have a reliable, intuitive platform that aligns with your trading style and strategy. Over the years, I’ve customized my platform with specific tools and indicators that I regularly use, enabling efficient and focused analysis. As you’ve seen I have my customised indicators and setups ready to go. Analyse the Main Market Trends Trading bias is what sets the mood. Go onto your daily or weekly charts with different main indices. And jot down, on your trading platform whether you are. Long biased (Only looking for longs) Short biased (Only looking for sells) Neutral biased (Waiting for a breakout) This high-level analysis helps me understand the market’s overall mood and possible influencing factors. Also, I make a note of any significant events or releases scheduled for the day that might impact my trades. You can go to the TradingView Economic Calendar and check. Look for Trading Setups Next, I start scanning for potential trading setups. I use my pre-defined criteria and I look for opportunities that align with my trading strategy. Plug in Trading Levels After I’ve found potential setups and high probability trades. I determine my entry, stop-loss, take-profit levels and quantity to buy or sell for each trade. These levels are guided by my risk management rules and are non-negotiable. I use my pattern trading strategy accompanied with Smart Money Concepts. Execute Trades Finally, with all the analysis done and trading levels set. I just take the trade/s. This is where discipline really comes into play. Regardless of the market noise or sudden fluctuations, I stick to my plan. After all, successful trading is not about making impulsive decisions but about consistently following a well-thought-out strategy. So that’s it. There are a couple of other things, like analysing and re-evaluating the portfolio once a week and when to prepare for paying tax and possible withdraws and deposits. But this is more subjective and is determined in sporadic parts of the year, that changes each time. This is just a taste. Remember, a good trading routine is one that suits your personal style, strategy, and goals. So feel free to tweak, adjust, and make it your own.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
How to get LASER Vision for Trading TriumphWe live in an extremely fast-paced world. It’s almost impossible to focus on just one task at a time. In fact, you’re probably already thinking of shifting your attention away from what I have to share with you today. You’re thinking of moving to the next email, what you’re going to eat, what’s on Netflix or the bills you have to pay or how else you’ll make your millions. Well just today. I want you to slow down. Relax. Can you please try to finish reading this tutorial, before you move on to the next task. You may find that this one important trait, is the missing puzzle piece for not only your trading success. But also this will help you to enjoy life, be in the now and feel way more relaxed with less stress… This won’t only drastically improve your trading but with every aspect of your life. This important trait I’m talking about is… The Power of Tunnel Vision Tunnel vision or singular focus, is where you concentrate and direct your attention to ONE thing at a time. Think of racehorses. When they have their blinkers on they tend to have singular focus with an undistracted mindset to guide them to their goal (end of the race). With trading you need to put on your own figurative blinkers and have tunnel vision to focus on: • Your trading setups • Your trading chart analysis • Your trading process and execution • Your trading adjustments • Your reviews, reports and findings This means, while you are focusing on ONE task at a time you need to Remove distractions from your life You don’t understand how much better your trading decisions will be and the clarity you’ll have when you remove distractions when you trade. Make it a habit to put away your phone, close all irrelevant tabs, declutter your space, take the dog out and switch off the TV. Make sure you have a quiet environment. Dedicate your full attention and focus entirely to your trading activities – without any distractions. And then when it comes to execution, make sure you Focus on risk management carefully Many traders have lost their accounts, by being reckless with their trading. Before you execute any trade, make it a point to double-check your math, trade volume, and other crucial factors that concern your portfolio. You'd be surprised how many times I’ve heard from traders who: Calculate wrong sizes, miscalculated levels, and incorrect risk and reward levels. This is your hard-earned money you’re working with. So you need to always be responsible, accountable and highly focused with your money management approach. Especially when it comes to risk management. Laser focus will help you accelerate results Believe it or not. When you focus on one task at a time, it can significantly boost your efficiency and productivity. This means you’ll finish sooner than you expected. That’s because you’re devoting your resources, and mental energy on one thing. And when you’re laser focused, you'll accomplish your goals a lot quicker than expected. When it comes to trading, having laser focus will help you to: 1. Finish your trading analyses sooner 2. Have your charts setup and trading analyses ready for the next day 3. See more profit opportunities 4. Make less mistakes and errors And this which will increase your productivity and optimisation levels as a trader. In fact, you might even find a way to see new elements to add onto your strategy. This way, you’ll build and master your profitable strategy. Cut out unnecessary stress when you trade When you adopt tunnel vision in your life, there’ll be less to worry about. Think about it. Doesn’t your blood pressure go through the roof when you: • Have the TV on? • Have your dogs or cats invading your space every couple of minutes? • Have too many tabs opened on your computer? • Think about your bills, life, worries and issues? And with the state of the fast-paced and modern world, I know you have stress right now. But when you cut out all the stress, distractions and problems then you’ll feel more in control. As a trader, you’ll alleviate stress when you analyse, develop a strategy, execute your trades and review your performance. You’ll improve your discipline and achieve your goals with your trading Once you start working on adopting singular focus in your life, you will feel a complete change to the way you do things. You’ll approach your trading and life, with a more disciplined manner. And when you have discipline, it will lead to you being more consistent and will promote more stability with your trading performance. And just like race horses see their end goal. You too will be able to see the steps you need to take to track and achieve your financial goals. Final words Time is flying. And if there is one thing I want you to do, is slow down and focus on each task at hand. This will help slow down the effect of time. I assure you, because it changed my life. So from today: Engage everything in the present moment. Act with full focus and concentration Do it with heart and care. Focus on each task you pursue. This mindful approach will greatly improve your trading performance. Did you make it to the end of this tutorial? Comment YES or NO.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
3
JSE Top 40 (J200/JTOPI) Losing Steam?Is the JSE Top 40 Index running out of steam? Purely technically, has the JSE reached its top? I think we are nearing it Strong parallel channel plotted with resistance at around 73,000 and support at around 70,000 points. Price has broken the resistance and we expect a reversal to support at around 70,000, however, we are targeting lower levels for a short. Look at going short at around 73,000 - 73,300 Set Stop Loss ("SL") at 75,000 Take Profit 1: 69,000 (if 70,000 support breaks) Take Profit 2: 67,000 Take Profit 3: 58,500 Take Profit 4: 44,000 Given the current macroeconomic climate, we see central banks being hawkish as an early recession indicator and a market top with a bearish bias for us We are waiting for a 20% correction at minimum within the next 6-12 months and will hold the trade longer. 44,000 points is an extreme long-term price target which could be influenced by the Covid price correction outlier, but still relevant over the long-term Payoff Profiles: Initial Margin Required per Contract = R9535.50 Capital Buffer Required (@30%) = R2860.65 Total Capital Required per Contract = R12,396.15 Expected Profits TP 1: (73,000 - 69,000)* 1 = R4,000 Total Capital Return = 32% TP 2: (73,000 - 67,000) *1 = R6,000 Total Capital Return = 48% TP 3: (73,000 - 58,500) *1 = R14,500 Total Capital Return = 117% TP 4: (73,000 - 44,000) *1 = R29,000 Total Capital Return = 234% SL: (73,000 - 75,000) * 1 = R2,000 Total Capital Return = -16% Worst Case R/R = 2:1 Best Case R/R = 14.6:1 Realistic R/R = 3:1 #IAMTHESPEQL8R #LIONTRADE Disclaimer: The aforementioned trade analysis and idea is purely for educational purposes and is not financial advice. The author and publisher of this idea cannot be held liable for any profits or losses incurred if this trade is executed by the individual. By executing trades on this position, the individual acknowledges that their capital is at risk and that they knowingly and intentionally executed this trade. Although the author is a licensed trader and registered person, this post does not constitute financial advice and there is no intent to solicit sales of any sort from individuals reading this post for educational purposes www.tradingview.com
JSE:J200Short
by SPEQL8R_LionTrade
TradingView - Economic Calendar Widget - How it Works I've applied the amazing TradingView Economic Calendar Widget tool to my website. It's extremely useful to use and apply. What I love about it is that I can customise the high impact news to watch out for on the daily. I thought I'd share a quick How it works guide! Intro to the Economic Calendar Widget by TradingView Whether you’re a fundamental (news and market related) trader or a technical (charts and historical info related) trader, this is a must-have tool to add to your trading arsenal. What is the Economic Calendar? The Economic Calendar is a powerful tool used by most traders to help you track good & bad news announcements, economic indicators, government reports and upcoming market-moving events. Each day you’ll see a list of financial world and economical news events in a chronological order. These events are to help you research and evaluate the impact they could have on different currencies, stocks, indices and commodities. Make sure the bar chart is highlighted in blue to see only HIGH IMPACT NEWS. How to read the Economic Calendar First you can get the Economic Calendar in the TradingView Widget website by going here www.tradingview.com Once you've applied the code to your website you'll easily understand how to read the Economic Calendar. Here are the main elements to consider: 1. Date: All economic events are shown in chronological order with the date and the time the announcement was released or will be released. 2. Time and country Below the date you’ll see the country’s flag and the time the event will be released or has been announced. NOTE: If you see the bar chart highlighted in blue – it means the event is a High Impact announcement. 3. Event On the top left next to the time will indicate the news or the events. 4. Actual/Forecast/Actual With each economic indicator event released, you’ll find the Actual, Forecast (Predicted) and Previous (Prior) numbers next to the date. Actual The economic event’s data released which shows you whether the data is BETTER or WORSE than the forecast number (expected). Forecast (Predicted) The expected number or forecast is the general agreement of the experts, analysts and economists. Prior (Previous) The previous data results e.g. Last month, last quarter or previous results. How to customize your Economic Calendar First, click on countries flags at the top of the calendar. A new window will open, where you can remove or select the countries events you’d like to see. Then click ‘Apply’ to update the information. Extra notes with the Economic Calendar There are a couple of important events you’ll need to watch out for on a monthly basis. Some of the most influential events, in no specific order, are the following: • Interest rate decisions • Changed in monetary policy • Inflation rates • QE Quantitative Easing • Credit tightening • Consumer sentiment • Non-farm Payroll • Changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • Consumer Price Index (CPI) • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) • Unemployment rate • Initial Jobless Claims • FOMC, Central banks meetings and economic talks • Geopolitical events You’ll see these will have a ripple effect on wider market movements. Economic indicators are the not only important events to watch out for. Also take note about the following news events: Event #1: ECB (European Central Bank) Event #2: US Fed Event #3: Bank of England Event #4: Bank of Japan Event #5: Swiss National Bank Event #6: Bank of Australia Let me know if this was useful and if you'll apply it to your website?
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
JSE to hopefully break above the Vuvuzela formation T to 75,000This week I remain an optimist that we will see a higher low with the JSE. And it will soon (not sure when) break up and out of the long extended Vuvuzela formation. Once it does my first short term target will be to 75,000. Every year it seems the JSE is testing traders more and more. Some fundamental news: Someone asked about what happens with the Interest Rates staying put last week in South Africa? Here are my thoughts... In the short term it's normally a bullish sign as it will stimulate economic and GDP growth. It's cheaper for businesses to borrow money. On the other side the interest rates are still very high and in the medium to long term, this will discourage spending and will encourage savings as there is a better ROI keeping money in the bank... As traders, we react on the short term and hopefully with the interest rates on hold, it will push up buying and demand. Then we can get our rally we've anticipated for the last 7 months. I'm starting to feel like Clive Roffey, where you see the impending upside, but there are just no confirmation catalysts to boost it.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
2
8 Signs of Trading SuccessOnce you’re a trader, you’ll always be one. Once you have the pure desire and urge to succeed, there is no turning back. And you need to go with your own time line and slowly but surely, you will make it. But there are a few signs you’ll need to consider. It’s all up to you. Let’s start with these inevitable signs. Sign #1: You Have a Passion to Trade Successful traders are driven by an innate passion for the markets. You need to have a desire to understand the intricacies of global economies, price action and the thrill of identifying high probability trades. The wins, the losses. The winning streaks and even the losing streaks. You need to have equal passion and enthusiasm to fuel the time and effort you’ll need to put into learning, practicing, and refining your strategies. Sign #2: You Have a Trading Routine A routine is crucial. Whether it’s in the morning, afternoon or at night. This routine includes regular market analysis, pre-market preparations, and post-market reviews. Pre, during and post. Pre involves doing all the preparations and looking for sexy setups. During, is identifying high probability trades and putting in your trading levels. Post is seeing how your portfolio and trades performed. And you’ll need to foster a systematic approach to trading. Successful traders know the importance of sticking to a routine to avoid hasty, emotional decisions and to stay attuned to market changes. Sign #3. You Are Disciplined In the world of trading, discipline is king. It’s the ability to maintain control, stick to your trading plan. It’s also the state where you avoid impulsive decisions based on fleeting market sentiments. Successful traders know when to enter and exit trades, when to cut losses. They also have the discipline to monitor and make any necessary adjustments. But most important, you need to follow your strategies diligently. Sign #4: You Have a System to Follow A system has a clear set of rules and parameters for entering and exiting trades, managing risks, and securing profits. You then have the ability and vision to fine-tune the system, look for the best markets to follow and navigate the markets confidently and consistently. Your goal is to reduce the role of guesswork and emotion in your decision-making process. Sign #5: You Have a Strong Mind Trading is a mental game. It’s one of my 4 M’s with trading (Markets, Methods, Money and MIND!). A successful trader possesses a resilient mindset that can handle the emotional rollercoaster that trading often brings. They remain calm under pressure, keep their emotions in check. And most important, they are able to stay rational even when faced with losses. Sign #6: You Have Tunnel Vision Think of horses with their blinkers. They can’t see beyond their central vision. They can’t see the sexy horses around them nor the food that surrounds them. So with trading you need to be central focused. You need to learn how to block out ‘noise’ and stay focused on your trading endeavours. Don’t be swayed by others. Don’t be swayed by the news. Don’t be swayed by the hear-say! Remain focused on your plan and what you know works with you. Sign #7: You Have Goals Successful traders set clear, achievable goals. They know what they want to achieve through trading and have a timeline for these goals. They are realistic about their expectations and continually monitor their progress. Based on your track record. You have goals on what your win rate is. You have goals on what no. of winning and losing trades you can expect per year. You have goals as to what your portfolio should potentially grow to each year. Having specific goals keeps them motivated, directs their efforts, and helps gauge whether their strategies are working. Sign #8: You Have Endurance You have to learn to be persistent, and endure the ability to withstand market volatility and periods of losses. You have to understand that downturns are part of the journey. You need to lose to win and how it’s the only way to help your portfolio achieve an overall upward trajectory. Also have the endurance to wait for the right trading opportunities that will present themselves. So if you got these trading signs you have a great chance at WINNING. Here they are again. Sign #1: You Have a Passion to Trade Sign #2: You Have a Trading Routine Sign #3. You Are Disciplined Sign #4: You Have a System to Follow Sign #5: You Have a Strong Mind Sign #6: You Have Tunnel Vision Sign #7: You Have Goals Sign #8: You Have Endurance
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
A Trader’s Checklist: 12 Essential Trading Questions to answerWhatever you trade… A successful trader minimises these risks by asking and answering a series of vital questions. This will help you ensure a clear strategy, an understanding of the market, and a control of emotions. Let’s dive into these questions. Q 1. Has a Trade Lined Up? Identifying a potential trade is the first step. Look for trends, chart patterns, or any other signals that indicate a potential opportunity. Yuu can also use Smart Money Concepts or price action techniques to pinpoint a trading setup. Q 2. Do I Have a Strategy in Place? Every successful trader operates with a strategy. This could be based on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. This will give you the roadmap to tell you when to enter and exit trades. Q 3. Do I Know Where to Place My Trading Levels? Determine your entry, exit, and stop-loss points. These are crucial levels for you to know with your trading strategy. This will remove the emotions or gut feelings or like I like to say ‘gat’ feelings. Q 4. Do I Know How Much I Need to Put into My Trade? Money management is key. Decide beforehand how much of your capital you’re willing per trade. This is obviously based on what your CURRENT portfolio is rather than what it was. A common rule of thumb is not to risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital. Q 5. Am I Ready to Buy or Sell Now? Before you pull the trigger. You need to be sure you’re ready. Have all the signals from your strategy aligned? Do you see the sign to get in? Then JUST TAKE THE TRADE. Q6. Do I Understand the Underlying Asset? Whether it’s a company’s stock, a commodity, or a cryptocurrency. You need to understand what you’re trading. You need to understand the factors that influence price movements, which can also give you that extra edge. Q 7. Have I Conducted Thorough Technical Analysis? Charts, indicators, patterns, volume or Smart Money Concepts. Technical analysis is a trader’s bread and butter. Make sure you’ve analysed the market technically and your analysis supports the trade. Q 8. Am I Letting Emotions Influence My Decisions? Fear, greed and ego are a trader’s worst enemies. Are you trading based on your mechanical and analytical strategy? Or are emotions driving your decisions? Q 9. Have I Set Realistic Profit Targets? It’s important to have profit targets in place. And they need to be realistic, based on the market conditions and your trading strategy. Remember, each market has their own trading personality so work with it. Q 10. Is This Trade Consistent With My Trading Plan? You need to make sure, your trading setup aligns perfectly with your track record and system data. Each trade should align with your overall trading plan. If it doesn’t, it may be best to pass. Q 11. Am I Overexposed in One Sector or Asset? If the quantity you choose to trade matches your risk management, you’re good to go. If you have a smallish portfolio, you might not be able to trade EVERY market. Some commodities and indices are extremely expensive and too risk when it comes to volume. If you’re overexposed in one area, you could face higher losses. Q 12. Am I Prepared for the Trade to Go Against Me? Even with all the analysis in the world, trades can go wrong. Are you prepared for this, both financially and emotionally? By asking these questions, you will at least be prepared for what is to come. Do you have any more questions you ask before taking a trade?
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Vuvuzela Pattern for the JSE ALSI 40 target to blow up to 75000 Well, well, well, we've identified the tumultuous and monotonous pattern on the chart finally. It's known as a Broadening Triangle or what I call a Vuvuzela Formation. The price diverges instead of converges in a triangle pattern... Now this can be a continuation or a reversal pattern. It all depends on the breakout. Looking at the D&S and liquidity it looks like the JSE really wants to break above the formation and head to new highs of the year. 75,000 is a decent first target... Also with Smart Money Concepts we can see there is a Sell Side Liquidity Order Block showing how Smart Money is sweeping selling and buying into it, hence there isn't a major push down in price just yet... I'm bullish with this Vuvuzela. Now we need the JSE to blow up.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
1
Shape your future with 7 Trading ChoicesAs you traverse the journey of trading. There are a couple of choices you’ll need to make. Not your spouse, not your kids, not your dog, not your neighbour. You… Every day you hold that bit of power that will shape your unique trading path. Remember, every action we take is a conscious choice. Where we say YES to one endeavour automatically entails saying NO to another. If you did economics, you would know it’s called an opportunity cost. Therefore, it is crucial that you need to say YES and make choice with whatever action is necessary to pave your successful future. Let’s go through some of the choices you need to make. Choice #1: Do you just take the trade? To Trade or Not to Trade, I call this the Hamlet Dilemma When the market lines up a juicy trade, you put your levels in and quantify your position. All that’s left is for you to press the button. If you’re hesitant, I want you to ask ONE thing. Is it a high probability trade or low? If it’s high. Count down 1, 2, 3. Just take the trade. Choice #2: The pick of the trading pops Go to a candy store, there are so many options of amazing candies. But you can’t take them all. You can’t taste them all either. You have to choose. Same with the markets. Thousands to choose from – which one do you pick? Here’s an idea. Choose a day in the week to trade a certain market. Monday stocks, Tuesday indices, Wednesday Forex, Thursday stocks. I don’t know. But condense the work and the watchlists and the markets so they’re BITE size to take and trade each week. Choice #3: Taming the Clock Time waits for no trader. Are you a day trader, where you want to open and close a trade within a day? Are you a swing trader swing trader where you catch and hold waves of market momentum over several days or weeks? Are you BOTH? Your lifestyle, trading experience, and market analysis skills can guide this decision. Tick-tock choose who you are on the clock! Choice #4: Techie or Traditionalist: Trading Platforms When you choose a trading and charting platform, it’s basically choosing a portion of your personality. It needs to suit your lifestyle and personality. You need to choose what colour backgrounds, indicators and chart layout you wish. You must want to enjoy what you see in the charts. You must find that they’re easy to work with and exactly what you need to trade with. Improve your trading skills, chart setups and become a savvy platform trader. Choice #5: Risk It All or Play It Safe: Money Management It’s the eternal trader’s tug-of-war. You get into a trade with the idea that you can lose money, or make money. And the sweet spot is what you need to decide what is best for your portfolio. Easy… Never risk more than 2% per trade. Never risk any money you can’t afford to lose. Play your trading safe in a way that you can preserve and protect your portfolio over the long haul. Choice #6: Trust gut or trust charts The big one is, what choice do you make when you decide to trade. Do you trust your gut or dive deep into data? While intuition can sometimes lead to lucky profitable outcomes. It’s not going to happen every time. It’s going to resemble gambling more than trading. And when you hit that losing streak and don’t have a solid trading system to trust and work on, it’s game over before you know it. The market doesn’t work on emotions. The market works on analytics, numbers, volume, demand and supply. So be like the market and you’ll stand a chance. Choice #7: Buy and Hold or Buy and Fold This one is the hardest choice of all. When you get into your trade. And it goes in your favour. Do you lock in profits by closing your trade, as you think it’s going to turn from here? Or do you adjust your stop loss, to protect your portfolio from taking any loss. Or do you just let your trade run according to your trading back-tested stats? Choice is yours. This also requires HIGH experience in trading. Because I still have to decide on these three choices every day when I’m in trades. Obviously, there are many other choices you need to make. But just remember. Everything you do is solely what you choose to drive you to the path of what you desire.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
How to Adapt to the Ever-Evolving Financial Markets – 4 WaysThe only constant with the financial markets is… Change The market is constantly changing in a way that it’s brining: New demand New supply New volume and fresh changes in the complex algorithms. If you want to thrive you need to learn to learn to adapt, evolve and grow with the markets. I want to cover four elements to today’s topic. The Inevitability of Market Change Change is not only constant but inevitable in financial markets. There will always be new elements streaming into the markets from: ~ Global and political events ~ Micro and macro aspects ~ Economic indicators ~ Regulatory shifts, and ~ Investor sentiment These elements are perpetually at work, shaping and reshaping the market. These catalysts can shift the trajectory of entire sectors, leading to volatile market movements. Influx of New Volume on Market Dynamics Every day, the market sees a deluge of new volume. There are new traders and investors constantly joining the financial markets world. And we are seeing an inflow of capital from retail traders, institutional investors, and high-frequency trading firms. The big institutions like Smart Money (banks, hedge funds, brokers etc…) are causing the big volatile moves in the market. The smaller guys – dumb money and retail traders – are also helping with liquidity in the markets. Every transaction is causing a shift in the market. No matter how small it’s the “Butterfly Effect of the financial market”. The Role of Algorithms in Market Evolution In the era of digital transformation, algorithms have become a pivotal part of the financial markets. Algorithmic trading or ‘algo-trading’ employs complex mathematical models to execute trades at lightning speed and frequency. I’m talking about Copy Trader, Robinhood, AI trading bots, EA Expert Advisors and pre-determined automatic mechanical trading methods. This practice is now an integral part of the trading landscape. And they will continue to have an influence in price action, and market patterns. Haven’t you noticed? In the 50s through to the early 2000’s. The markets trended on a more consistent basis. Any monkey could choose a list of good stocks and hold them until they were up 200% – 1000%. But nowadays with derivatives, algorithms, shorts and automatic execution – markets have never been more volatile and more difficult to ride the trends. Always Adapt to Thrive in Changing Markets It’s our job to learn to be more flexible and to adapt to these market conditions. As markets evolve, so must we evolve with them. We need to always: ~ Apply new markets to our watchlists ~ Look for better trading instruments ~ Change the trading strategy to make it more conducive with the environments ~ Always look for the next best broker, trading and charting platform ~ Look for ways to reduce costs and maximise profits. I’ll end off with this. The market is constantly changing, adapting and evolving. We need to embrace the change and not see it as a threat. Have this mentality and you’ll always have the opportunities to improve, anticipate and grow as a trader.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
5 Stupid Trading Advice PointsA staggering 98% of traders inevitably stumble and tumble into the abyss of financial loss. Why such a high failure rate, you ask? It’s because failed traders try to preach their failures (as they think that’s how it is). They develop these narcissistic methods, where they misguide others and are too blinded by their own failures. Few years later, they’re back in their parents basements playing games or working at Mc Donald’s. I want to share and explore five such stupid advice points that can send even the most promising trading careers down a spiral of regret and loss. Go big or go home – a fool’s motto for financial Russian roulette. In the world of high stakes and adrenaline rush, the mantra ‘Go big or go home’ might sound like a call to glory. It might sound like a quick way to riches. However, when you say this. You’re destined for a financial land mine eventually. Going ‘big’ in trading terms typically means putting a large chunk of your capital into one or a few trades. And yes, it might very well pay off in the short term. It may pay handsomely. But for how long until you blow your entire account? Smart trading advocates a balanced approach, including diversified portfolios and proper risk management techniques. It’s more about ‘Go steady and stay in the game’ than ‘Go big or go home’. The next trade will be better – as reliable as a fortune cookie’s prophecy. This is another common trap. They just took a loss and now they feel, the next trade will be a winner. Nope! This is a dangerous mindset which will lead you to ‘revenge trading.’ Trading is not a series of independent events. Your next trade is not guaranteed to be better simply because you lost the previous one. And we can NEVER predict with certainty which trade will win. You need to approach each trade objectively. Don’t let past performances cloud your judgment. Don’t let a false and fabricated future bring on trading destruction. Learn from past mistakes, certainly, but don’t bank on the next trade as a panacea for all previous losses. Follow your heart – Your heart pumps. Your brain thinks. Stop relying on emotions and gut feelings in a robotic, cold and ruthless market. Emotions can amplify the impact of market volatility. Emotions can make you overreact to market swings. Emotions can make you stick with losing trades for too long. Emotions can cut your profits far too soon. And you can blame evolution. Instinct often plays a role in decision-making. And you need to remember that… Successful trading absolutely needs a systematic, disciplined approach based on logic and solid analysis. Everything happens for a reason – the financial equivalent of seeing faces in clouds. OK this might comfort you in some esoteric aspects of your life. But you need to get rid of this notion with the markets. The financial market is complex and influenced by numerous variables (that have nothing to do with you). Get off your high horse and believe everything revolves around you! Not every price movement has a logical or predictable reason behind it. Instead, you should focus on understanding broader market trends, develop solid trading strategies, and manage your risk effectively. With logic, with discipline, with mathematics, with statistics – NOT WITH ESOTERIC REASONS! Work harder and you’ll win more – because nothing says ‘smart trading’ like turning a strategic marathon into a frenzied sprint. While hard work is essential with business and with most areas of your life. Trading is a game where quality trumps quantity. The ‘work harder and you’ll win more’ advice often leads traders to overtrade, mistakenly believing that a higher frequency of trades equates to higher returns. In trading, it’s more important to work smarter, not harder. In trading it’s more important to think quality, not quantity. In trading it’s more important to think high probability than any probability. It’s about making well-informed trades, not just more trades. So let’s sum up the stupid trading advice points you need to watch out for. Go big or go home – a fool’s motto for financial Russian roulette. The next trade will be better – as reliable as a fortune cookie’s prophecy. Follow your heart – Everything happens for a reason – the financial equivalent of seeing faces in clouds. Work harder and you’ll win more – because nothing says ‘smart trading’ like turning a strategic marathon into a frenzied sprint. If you can think of any more, let me know in the comments.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 Vuvuzela Formation - could break up!Hi guys, this could be a concern. JSE ALSI 40 has been forming a broadening pattern (Vuvuzela) since 12 April 2023. Now with these patterns, they can break any direction... If we make a higher low, the chance of the price breaking up is higher. Then we can expect the price to finally break up and out and head to 75,000 as the first target. As this is Monday, it will set the bar to where the market will be heading soon. We need to hold onto our hats as this can go south just as quickly as it went up last week. What do you think up or down this week?
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
Become a Trading Machine - 11 ways!If you want to trade well and consistently. You have to be more mechanically orientated. The weekend is about to begin so I'll be literally quick and brief. Saying "literally" was unnecessary and made it longer. Sorry. Here are the pointers: 1. Stay committed 2. Cultivate patience 3. Avoid herd mentality 4. Be long-term oriented 5. Stop crying over losers 6. Review your performance 7. Stop celebrating winners 8. Adapt to market conditions 9. Keep your emotions in check 10. Don't think of quick success 11. Adapt and advance with technology
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
GLOSSARY Smart Money Concepts – Complete Terms!It’s taking the world by a storm. Smart Money Concepts is what has become famous lately. Now I’ve been trading for 20 years and even I have learnt to adapt and adjust SMC to my trading strategy. I guess we have to evolve and adapt with what there is. Anyways, today I’ve written a complete Glossary on Smart Money Concepts terms for you. Enjoy! SMART MONEY CONCEPTS GLOSSARY Break Of Structure (BOS) (CONTINUATION) A BOS is when the price breaks above or below, and continues in the direction of the trend. (CONTINUATION). Break Of Structure Down When the price breaks and closes BELOW the wick of the previous LOW in a DOWNTREND. Break Of Structure Up When the price breaks and closes ABOVE the wick of the previous HIGH in an UPTREND. Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS) Where an Order Block forms where Smart Money SELLS into retailers (dumb money) BUYING orders – Pushing the price DOWN. Change of Character (CHoCH) (REVERSAL) Refers to a much larger shift in the underlying market trend, dynamic or sentiment. This is where the price moves to the point where there is a change in the overall trend. (REVERSAL) Change of Character Down When the price breaks and closes below the previous uptrend. Change of Character Up When the price breaks and closes above the previous downtrend. Daily bias Tells us which direction, trend and environment the market is in and what we are looking to trade. Daily bias Bearish When the market environment is DOWN and the trend is DOWN – we look for shorts (sells) in the market. Daily bias Bullish When the market environment is UP and the trend is UP – we look for long positions (buys) in the market. Discount market <50% The market is at a discount when the price trades BELOW the equilibrium level. We say the price is at a discount (low price). Equilibrium Equilibrium is a state of the market where the demand and supply are in balance with the price. We say the price of the market is at fair value. Fair Value Gap (FVG) A 3 candle structure with an up or down impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. Fair Value Gap Bearish A 3 candle structure with a DOWN impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to move back up to rebalance and fill the gap. Fair Value Gap Bullish A 3 candle structure with an UP impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to come back down to rebalance and fill the gap. Levels of liquidity The area of prices where smart money players, identify and choose to BUY or SELL large quantities. E.g. Supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, trend lines, volume, indicators, psychological levels. Liquidity The degree, rate and ability for an asset or security to be easily bought (flow in) or sold (flow out) in the market at a specific price. Liquidity sweep (Liquidity grab) Smart money buys or sells (and sweeps or grabs liquidity) from traders who enter, exit or get stopped. Market down structure When the price makes lower lows and lower highs. Market structure Indicates what a market is doing, which direction it’s in and where it is more likely to go. Market Structure Shift (MSS) MSS shows you when the price is breaking a structure or changing the direction in the market. Market up structure When the price makes higher lows and higher highs. Order block Large market orders (big block of orders) where smart money buys or sells from different levels of liquidity. Order Block Bearish A strong selling or a supply zone for smart money. Order Block Bullish A strong buying or a demand zone for smart money. Order block events Large market orders where smart money buys or sells from certain events i.e. High volume, supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, Break Of Structure, Change of Character, News or economic event. Point Of Interest (POI) POI is an area or level in the market where there is expected to be a large amount of buying or selling activity i.e. Order blocks. Premium market >50% The market is at a premium when the price trades ABOVE the equilibrium level. We say the price is at a premium (high price). Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS) Where an Order Block forms where the Smart Money BUYS into the retail (dumb money traders orders – Pushing the price UP. Smart Money These are the smart, informed, and savvy financial institutions that invest (buy and sell) their large capital into different financial markets. Smart Money Concepts SMC is a more sophisticated method of price action to spot, identify and locate where smart money is buying and selling their positions Sweep Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS) Smart Money SELLS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from retail traders who are short (get stopped) and for long traders who buy and enter their trades. Sweep Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS) Smart Money BUYS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter their trades. Feel free to print this out and have it as a guide to your Smart Money Concepts trading journey. All the best!
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
101
Where is this damn JSE going - I hope UP! - Here's why. Your guess is as good as mine. One day we are up another is down. One week is up, one month is sideways. This is NOT conducive for trending markets. This is NOT conducive for breakout traders. This is not conducive for momentum traders. So we need to wait for a breakout to have a better idea on where it wants to go. Right now I'm long 8 stocks and short 6 stocks on the JSE. So yes, hedging is crucial during these times. Also, one needs to hedge with Forex, indices maybe even international markets. It's the only way to have more control of our portfolios and to diversify markets better. So which way is it going. No matter what, I always prefer the market to move up. I prefer for the optimistic approach where companies are doing well, South Africa is doing well and investors are doing well. Even though I could be stopped with all shorts, I honestly don't care. I care about the wellbeing of the country and the JSE. I don't normally rant with analyses, but this is a clear example of where we as traders, have no idea where the market is likely to head.
TVC:SA40
by Timonrosso
2