Our opinion on the current state of KUMBA-IO(KIO)Kumba (KIO) is a highly successful iron mining operation which is owned (79%) and controlled by Anglo American.
The share price fell to as little as R223 in March 2020 because of COVID-19 but recovered to R668 before falling on the March 2022 quarterly results.
Importantly, exports make up 94% of the company's total sales - which means that it is not heavily dependent on local sales but is vulnerable to any strengthening of the rand and the effectiveness of rail transport to ports.
The company is planning to build a 100MW solar park over the next 3 years to reduce its reliance on Eskom. The company has had to contend with heavy rain and bad rail performance.
On 10th October 2022, Kumba announced that, because of the force majeure at Transnet, it would lose about 50,000 tons of production per day, rising to 90,000 tons after 7 days as a direct result of the Transnet force majeure. Furthermore, they said they would lose about 120,000 tons of exports which will cost them about $8.5m a day in production and $11.7m in lost export revenue. The company is considering 490 retrenchments.
In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue down 6% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 26%. The average free-on-board (FOB) price received was $97 per ton with an EBITDA of 44%. The company had a closing cash position of R14.6bn.
The company said, "Attributable free cash flow of R9.1 billion supported our Board's decision to declare an interim dividend of R6.0 billion."
In an update on the 3 months to 30th September 2024, the company reported production up 3% and sales up 2%.
The company said, "...in comparison to Q2 2024, sales decreased by 6% as ship loading was impacted by adverse weather conditions in July 2024 at the Saldanha Bay port. Given this, sales are expected to end the year closer to the lower end of our full year 2024 sales guidance of 36 – 38 Mt, subject to Transnet's logistics performance..."
In a trading statement for the year to 31st December 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would fall by between 43% and 48%.
The company said, "Ore railed to Saldanha Bay Port decreased by 8% compared to Q3 2024, due to the planned 15-day annual maintenance shutdown and unfortunate train derailments following the re-opening of the Ore Export Channel (OEC). To maintain a balanced and efficient value chain, finished stock at the mines was drawn down and production reduced by 17% compared to Q3 2024, while sales increased by 1% to 9.1 Mt."
The share trades at a multiple of 5.62 and a dividend yield (DY) of 9.71% - which seems to compensate the investor to some extent for the commodity risk in this rand-hedge share, but it remains volatile and hence risky.
On 28th August 2024, the company announced that it would invest R11.2bn in improved processing technology at Sishen, which would improve premium quality production to 55% from the current level of 18%.