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KUMBA IRON ORE LTD

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KUMBA IRON ORE (KIO)KUMBA IRON ORE (KIO) - WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS KIO is currently hovering around a strong support zone, which aligns closely with the levels we saw back in September/October 2022 when China introduced additional stimulus measures following the May and August rounds. This support has held firm since April 2020, making it a key area to watch. Looking at the RSI, in 2022, we saw a downtrend break on the RSI, which triggered a significant 60% price move over the next 105 days. Currently, the RSI is teasing a similar scenario, testing the downtrend line. A break above it, combined with potential stimulus from China, could signal a similar rally. Keep an eye on this zone for a potential bullish move
JSE:KIO
by MarketMeistersTrading
Kumba Iron Ore Analysis 10/15/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/15/24 I have no open positions in Kumba Iron Ore JSE: KIO Introduction: Kumba Iron Ore is a South African Iron Ore mining company. They operate 3 mines in South Africa, all of which are quality assets operating profitably at current Iron Ore prices. The second business segment is logistics, or the transport of minerals across South Africa and internationally. Fundamentals: Looking at the 3 mines and their average costs the company is profitable at any Iron Ore prices about $40/metric ton. Well below the current prices. The return on the company's assets is very high and debt is negligible. The mine's have a long runway of 20+ years before they are at risk of running dry. With a long runway, profitable mines, the company looks attractive on a fundamentals basis. Iron Ore spot price: Current Iron prices are around $100/metric ton. Iron being a commodity tied to the general economy could see a drop in an economic downturn. $50 Iron could be possible atleast in the short term with an upside of $200/metric ton in a good economic environment for Iron. tradingeconomics.com Valuations: Kumba Iron Ore is currently trading at a P/CF and a P/E of 3.67 and 5.69 respectively. By both metrics the company is very cheap relative to the fundamentals. With a dividend yield of 11% easily covered by the company's cash flows Kumba Iron Ore looks very attractive for a long term investor bullish on Iron Ore. If you enjoyed this report follow for more! PM for consulting, portfolio analysis, and research requests.
JSE:KIOLong
by sihen999
KIO.JSE Kumba Iron Ore. High Risk / High Reward.Kumba Iron Ore is currently Trading above Recent Lows. Single Commodity Tickers are always inherently a High Risk / High Reward Scenario. They are the current Market Price Takers. Should the China Stimulus result in Positive result's , not just hype, then I expect the Demand for Steel and Iron Ore to increase and hence this Tickers Stock Value. I've Charted the Recent Lows and Highs for your Perusal. As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions. Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away. Regards Graham.
JSE:KIOLong
by hitchcoxg
Kumba Iron Ore: KIO - Long-term ViewKumba Iron Ore's monthly view shows a reversal pattern in play for a long position. The following have to play out: 1. Overcome horizontal resistance at R415 (this is expected in October) 2. When October closes above R406.01, open a long position (swing low is confirmed) 3. First target R480 area, idea to be updated based on daily timeframe analysis whether to take profit 4. If price goes above R480 area next target becomes 10 month moving average, after that the green trendline 5. A monthly close above the green trendline means holding until price closes below 10 month moving average & trendline support A rejection on green trendline means price resumes downtrend until June/July 2023.
JSE:KIO
by runyamhere
Our opinion on the current state of KUMBA-IO(KIO)Kumba (KIO) is a highly successful iron mining operation, with 79% ownership and control by Anglo American. The company's share price experienced a significant drop to R223 in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic but later recovered to R668 before facing declines following the March 2022 quarterly results. Kumba's reliance on exports, which constitute 94% of its total sales, makes it less dependent on local sales but exposes it to risks related to the strengthening of the rand and the effectiveness of rail transport to ports. To reduce its reliance on Eskom, the company plans to build a 100 MW solar park over the next three years. However, Kumba has faced challenges such as heavy rainfall and poor rail performance. On 10th October 2022, Kumba announced that due to a force majeure at Transnet, it would lose about 50,000 tons of production per day, increasing to 90,000 tons after seven days. This disruption was expected to result in a loss of around 120,000 tons of exports, costing the company approximately $8.5 million in production and $11.7 million in lost export revenue per day. The company is also considering 490 retrenchments. In its results for the six months ending 30th June 2024, Kumba reported a 6% decline in revenue and a 26% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The average free-on-board (FOB) price received was $97 per ton, with an EBITDA margin of 44%. The company maintained a strong closing cash position of R14.6 billion and declared an interim dividend of R6.0 billion, supported by attributable free cash flow of R9.1 billion. Kumba's share currently trades at a multiple of 5.81 and offers a dividend yield (DY) of 9.39%, which provides some compensation to investors for the commodity risk associated with this rand-hedge share. However, it remains volatile and thus carries a degree of risk. Additionally, the potential offer by BPH to buy Anglo American, which includes the unbundling of Kumba, adds an element of uncertainty to the company's future. On 28th August 2024, Kumba announced plans to invest R11.2 billion in improved processing technology at its Sishen mine, which aims to increase premium quality production to 55% from the current level of 18%.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of KUMBA-IO(KIO)Kumba (KIO) is a highly successful iron mining operation that is 79% owned and controlled by Anglo American. The share price saw a significant drop to R223 in March 2020 due to COVID-19 but recovered to R668 before falling again after the March 2022 quarterly results. Notably, exports account for 94% of the company's total sales, making it less reliant on local sales but more vulnerable to the strengthening of the rand and the efficiency of rail transport to ports. To mitigate its reliance on Eskom, Kumba plans to build a 100MW solar park over the next three years. The company has faced challenges such as heavy rain and poor rail performance. On 10th October 2022, Kumba announced that due to the force majeure at Transnet, it would lose about 50,000 tons of production per day, increasing to 90,000 tons after seven days. This would result in a loss of approximately 120,000 tons of exports, costing the company about $8.5 million per day in production and $11.7 million in lost export revenue. In its results for the year ending 31st December 2023, Kumba reported revenue up 16% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 26%. The company noted, "Average realised FOB export price of US$117/tonne, 15% above benchmark - Cost savings of R1.0 billion, underpins C1 unit costs of US$41/tonne - Resilient EBITDA* margin of 53%, up from 50% - Closing net cash* of R13.2 billion." The company is considering 490 retrenchments. In an update for the three months ending 31st March 2024, Kumba reported total production down 2% and sales down 10%, largely driven by a 12% decrease in Kolomela's production to 2.7Mt, while Sishen's production increased by 4% to 6.6Mt. In a production and sales update for the six months ending 30th June 2024, the company reported volumes down 2% and sales down 5%. The company stated, "The iron ore market pulled back strongly in the first half and the reconfiguration of our business to a lower production and cost profile is helping to build greater resilience in the challenging market environment. Weak steel demand in China and Europe coupled with robust iron ore supply contributed to the Platts IODEX 62% Fe CFR benchmark iron ore price falling by 26% since the start of the year." The share trades at a multiple of 5.89 and offers a dividend yield (DY) of 8.97%, which compensates investors to some extent for the commodity risk in this rand-hedge share. However, it remains volatile and hence risky. The offer by BHP to buy Anglo includes the unbundling of Kumba. At this stage, it is not certain that the deal will go ahead.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of KUMBA-IO(KIO)Kumba Iron Ore (KIO), a subsidiary mainly controlled by Anglo American with a 79% stake, is one of the top iron mining operations, renowned for its substantial success in the industry. The company’s share price experienced significant volatility, dropping to R223 in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it managed a strong recovery to R668 before facing another decline after the March 2022 quarterly results. Kumba's business model heavily relies on exports, which constitute 94% of its total sales. This large percentage indicates that while the company is less dependent on the local South African market, it remains susceptible to fluctuations in the rand's value and logistical challenges related to rail transport to ports. In response to operational challenges and to lessen its dependence on Eskom, Kumba plans to construct a 100mw solar park over the next three years. In October 2022, the company faced significant disruptions due to a force majeure declared by Transnet, leading to substantial production losses—estimated at about 50,000 tons per day initially, escalating to 90,000 tons after seven days. This incident severely impacted the company’s ability to meet its export commitments, resulting in considerable financial losses estimated at around $8.5 million per day in production and $11.7 million in lost export revenue. Despite these challenges, Kumba reported a strong financial performance for the year ending 31st December 2023, with a 16% increase in revenue and a 26% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The company achieved an average realized FOB export price of US$117 per tonne, which was 15% above the benchmark, and managed to reduce its C1 unit costs to US$41 per tonne, thanks to cost savings of R1.0 billion. These factors contributed to a resilient EBITDA margin of 53%, up from 50%, and a robust closing net cash position of R13.2 billion. However, Kumba is considering reducing its workforce by 490 employees, indicating ongoing efforts to streamline operations and manage costs. For the first quarter ending 31st March 2024, Kumba reported a 2% decrease in total production and a 10% reduction in sales, primarily driven by a 12% decrease in production at the Kolomela mine. In contrast, production at the Sishen mine increased by 4%, supported by healthy buffer stocks. The company's shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 6.43 and offer a dividend yield of 8.23%. These figures suggest that while the investment presents risks associated with commodity price fluctuations and operational challenges, it also offers potential high returns through dividends. Additionally, the ongoing offer by BHP to purchase Anglo American includes plans for the unbundling of Kumba. This proposal adds another layer of uncertainty regarding Kumba’s future, making it a potentially volatile but rewarding investment for those willing to navigate the complexities of the commodity market and corporate restructuring.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of KUMBA-IO(KIO)Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) is a leading iron ore mining operation, primarily owned (79%) and controlled by Anglo American. The company's performance has been significantly influenced by global market dynamics and local operational challenges. The share price experienced a dramatic drop to R223 in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic but managed a robust recovery to R668 before experiencing a decline following the March 2022 quarterly results. A critical aspect of Kumba's business model is its heavy reliance on exports, which constitute 94% of its total sales. This international focus exposes the company to fluctuations in the rand exchange rate and the efficiency of rail transport logistics to ports, which are vital for its export operations. In response to operational challenges, including dependency on Eskom for power, Kumba plans to develop a 100mw solar park over the next three years, aiming to enhance its energy self-sufficiency. In October 2022, Kumba faced significant disruptions due to a force majeure declared by Transnet, resulting in substantial production and export losses. This event highlighted the vulnerabilities in its supply chain, significantly impacting its financial performance due to lost production and export revenues. For the fiscal year ending 31st December 2023, Kumba reported a 16% increase in revenue and a 26% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The company achieved an average realized FOB export price of US$117/tonne, which was 15% above the benchmark. Cost-saving measures contributed to a reduction in C1 unit costs to US$41/tonne, supporting a resilient EBITDA margin of 53%, an improvement from the previous 50%. The company also reported a strong closing net cash position of R13.2 billion. Despite these financial strengths, Kumba is considering 490 retrenchments as part of its operational adjustments. The first quarter of 2024 saw a 2% decrease in total production and a 10% reduction in sales, primarily due to a 12% decrease in production at the Kolomela mine. Conversely, production at the Sishen mine increased by 4%, buffered by healthy stock levels throughout the value chain. Kumba's shares currently trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 6.3 and offer a dividend yield of 8.39%. These metrics suggest that the investment may offer reasonable compensation for the inherent commodity risk and the volatility associated with being a rand-hedge share. However, potential investors should consider the risks of operational dependencies and global market sensitivities that could affect Kumba’s performance. Overall, while Kumba Iron Ore presents potential for strong returns, especially via dividends, it remains subject to significant operational and market risks that require careful consideration.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of KIOKumba Iron Ore, predominantly owned and controlled by Anglo American with a 79% stake, is a leading iron mining operation in South Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted its share price, which plummeted to R223 in March 2020. However, it saw a recovery to R668 before experiencing a decline following the March 2022 quarterly results. A critical aspect of Kumba's business model is its heavy reliance on exports, which constitute 94% of its total sales, making the company less dependent on the domestic market but susceptible to the rand's fluctuations and challenges in rail transport to ports. In response to its reliance on Eskom and to ensure sustainability in its operations, Kumba has announced plans to construct a 100mw solar park over the next three years. The company has also faced operational challenges due to heavy rain and poor rail performance. A significant setback occurred on 10th October 2022, when a force majeure declared by Transnet led to a substantial loss of production and exports, significantly impacting Kumba's revenue. For the year ending on 31st December 2023, Kumba reported a 16% increase in revenue and a 26% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The company highlighted its achievement of an average realised Free On Board (FOB) export price of US$117/tonne, which is 15% above the benchmark. Furthermore, Kumba achieved cost savings of R1.0 billion, resulting in C1 unit costs of US$41/tonne and an improved EBITDA margin of 53%, up from 50%. Despite these financial successes, the company is contemplating 490 retrenchments as part of its operational adjustments. Kumba's shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.75 and offer a dividend yield (DY) of 6.82%. These figures indicate that the company's stock may offer a reasonable compensation level for investors considering the inherent commodity risk and its status as a rand-hedge share. Kumba's strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiency, reducing dependency on Eskom through renewable energy investments, and navigating the challenges of export logistics underscores its resilience and potential for sustained growth in the face of industry and economic headwinds.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of KIOKumba Iron Ore (KIO), a premier iron mining operation, is predominantly owned (79%) by Anglo American. The company's share price experienced significant volatility, plummeting to R223 in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, then recovering to R668 before dropping again after the March 2022 quarterly results. A key aspect of Kumba's operations is that exports constitute 94% of its total sales, rendering the company less reliant on the domestic market but susceptible to rand appreciation and the efficiency of rail transport to ports. To mitigate its dependence on Eskom, Kumba has plans to construct a 100mw solar park within the next three years. Kumba has faced operational challenges, including severe weather conditions and poor rail performance. On 10th October 2022, the company announced significant production losses due to Transnet's force majeure, estimating a daily production loss of 50,000 tons, escalating to 90,000 tons after seven days. This situation was expected to lead to a loss of approximately 120,000 tons in exports, costing the company around $8.5 million daily in production and $11.7 million in lost export revenue. For the first half of the year ending 30th June 2023, Kumba reported an 11% decrease in revenue and a 17% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS). Despite these challenges, the company achieved an EBITDA of R19.8 billion, with a 52% EBITDA margin, supported by an average realized free-on-board (FOB) export price of US$106 per wet metric tonne (wmt), slightly above the benchmark price. The period also saw a 6% increase in production but a significant R6 billion loss attributed to copper cable theft. The production report for the quarter ending 30th September 2023 indicated a 2% decrease in total production and a 6% fall in iron ore sales, impacted by equipment failures at Transnet and adverse weather conditions at Saldanha Bay Port. As a result, sales saw a 12% decrease compared to Q3 2022 and a 6% decrease from Q2 2023. Revising its 2023 guidance, Kumba now anticipates production to be between 35 and 36 million tonnes (down from the previously expected 35 to 37 million tonnes) and sales forecasts adjusted to 36 to 37 million tonnes (previously 36 to 38 million tonnes). Cost expectations for Sishen and Kolomela mines have also been updated. The fourth-quarter production update for 2023 revealed a 27% decline in iron ore production, primarily due to continued rail performance issues, although sales increased by 36% for the quarter and 1% annually. Trading at a P/E multiple of 10.84 and offering a dividend yield (DY) of 5.73%, Kumba's shares appear to offer some compensation for the inherent commodity risk and its status as a rand-hedge investment.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of KIOKumba (KIO) is a highly successful iron mining operation which is owned (79%) and controlled by Anglo American. The share price fell to as little as R223 in March 2020 because of COVID-19 but has recovered to R668 before falling on the March 2022 quarterly results. Importantly, exports make up 94% of the company's total sales - which means that it is not heavily dependent on local sales but is vulnerable to any strengthening of the rand and the effectiveness of rail transport to ports. The company is planning to build a 100mw solar park over the next 3 years to reduce its reliance on Eskom. The company has had to contend with heavy rain and bad rail performance. On 10th October 2022, Kumba announced that, because of the force majeure at Transnet, it would lose about 50 000 tons of production per day, rising to 90 000 tons after 7 days as a direct result of the Transnet force majeure. Furthermore, they said they would lose about 120 000 tons of exports which will cost them about $8,5m a day in production and $11,7m in lost export revenue. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported revenue down 11% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 17%. The company said, "We delivered an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of R19.8 billion and an EBITDA margin of 52%, underpinned by an average realised free-on-board (FOB) export price of US$106/wet metric tonne (wmt), 4% above the average benchmark price. Production increased by 6%." The company lost R6bn to copper cable theft during the period. In a production report on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported total production down 2% and iron ore sales down 6%. The company said, "...multiple Transnet equipment failures and adverse weather conditions at Saldanha Bay Port in September impacted ship loading. As a consequence, sales decreased by 12% relative to Q3 2022 and by 6% compared to Q2 2023." In an update on the company's 2023 guidance the company said it expected, "...production of between 35 - 36 million tonnes (previously 35 – 37 million tonnes) and sales at 36 – 37 million tonnes (previously 36 – 38 million tonnes). Sishen's unit cost is anticipated to increase to between R570 – 590 per tonne (previously R540 - 570 per tonne). Kolomela's unit cost is expected to improve to between R480 – 500 per tonne (previously R510 - 540 per tonne)". The share trades at a multiple of 11,75 and a dividend yield (DY) of 5,29% - which seems to compensate the investor to some extent for the commodity risk in this rand-hedge share.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA
Kumba Up Against Resistance with Little FuelKumba is back against a resistance that has rejected price now for the third time, we ended the week with an evening star candle formation. We can see the triple top that is likely forming. The 200 day moving average is just below but the overbought indicators warn us that we will not find strong enough support there. We have higher confidence in price reversing given that price at 21 August is lower than that at 20 March 2023, price is in yearly decline. Price closing above R545.66 on a weekly basis is a stop-loss.
JSE:KIOShort
by runyamhere
UPDATE:Kumba Iron Ore and the Bullish Trend: Moving Towards R600Kumba Iron Ore Kumba Iron Ore and the Bullish Trend: Moving Towards R600 1.Price Formation: The price has broken out from a C&H price formation on a daily chart. 2.Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is above the 21-day MA, which is a positive sign indicating bullish momentum. 3.200-day Moving Average is below the Price. 4.Thus, Mas 7>21>200 5.Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is > than 50, indicating bullish momentum and potential further upward movement. 6.Price Target: R600.00 Kumba Iron Ore is a mining company based in South Africa, specializing in the extraction of iron ore. As one of the leading iron ore producers on the African continent, the company operates primarily in the Northern Cape province, home to significant iron ore reserves. Kumba Iron Ore is known for operating large-scale, high-quality iron ore mines, including its flagship Sishen Mine, one of the largest open-pit mines in the world. Kumba's iron ore products are sought after for their high iron content and are exported mainly to international steelmakers. The company's mining operations, technical expertise, and emphasis on sustainable practices have positioned it as a prominent player in the global iron ore market. It's worth noting that Kumba Iron Ore has been part of Anglo American, a multinational mining company with a diverse range of mining operations across different commodities and continents. Anglo American has had a strong influence on Kumba's operational efficiencies, safety performance, and sustainability initiatives.
JSE:KIOLong
by Sahle
Kumba Iron Ore: KIO - Short-Term ViewKumba Iron Ore has managed to tick most conditions set in October 2022 (see linked idea). We are now approaching the green line while the $DXY is looking to put a reversal. We will be looking at price interaction with the green resistance line. We might see a pullback right below the line which can appear to be consolidation. However some profits can be harvested here. Price can trend downwards again towards the green support line. Iron Ore Futures are sitting on 200DMA, a break to the downside also cements a bearish view into May/June.
JSE:KIOShort
by runyamhere
Kumba Iron Ore and the Bullish Trend: Moving Towards R600?Kumba Iron Ore Kumba Iron Ore and the Bullish Trend: Moving Towards R600 1.Price Formation: The price has broken out from a C&H price formation on a daily chart. 2.Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is above the 21-day MA, which is a positive sign indicating bullish momentum. 3.200-day Moving Average is below the Price. 4.Thus, Mas 7>21>200 5.Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is > than 50, indicating bullish momentum and potential further upward movement. 6.Price Target: R600.00 Kumba Iron Ore is a mining company based in South Africa, specializing in the extraction of iron ore. As one of the leading iron ore producers on the African continent, the company operates primarily in the Northern Cape province, home to significant iron ore reserves. Kumba Iron Ore is known for operating large-scale, high-quality iron ore mines, including its flagship Sishen Mine, one of the largest open-pit mines in the world. Kumba's iron ore products are sought after for their high iron content and are exported mainly to international steelmakers. The company's mining operations, technical expertise, and emphasis on sustainable practices have positioned it as a prominent player in the global iron ore market. It's worth noting that Kumba Iron Ore has been part of Anglo American, a multinational mining company with a diverse range of mining operations across different commodities and continents. Anglo American has had a strong influence on Kumba's operational efficiencies, safety performance, and sustainability initiatives.
JSE:KIOLong
by Sahle
Our opinion on the current state of KIOKumba (KIO) is a highly successful iron mining operation which is owned (79%) and controlled by Anglo American. The share price fell to as little as R223 in March 2020 because of COVID-19 but has recovered to R668 before falling on the March 2022 quarterly results. Importantly, exports make up 94% of the company's total sales - which means that it is not heavily dependent on local sales but is vulnerable to any strengthening of the rand and the effectiveness of rail transport to ports. The company is planning to build a 100mw solar park over the next 3 years to reduce its reliance on Eskom. The company has had to contend with heavy rain and bad rail performance. On 10th October 2022, Kumba announced that, because of the force majeure at Transnet, it would lose about 50 000 tons of production per day, rising to 90 000 tons after 7 days as a direct result of the Transnet force majeure. Furthermore, they said they would lose about 120 000 tons of exports which will cost them about $8,5m a day in production and $11,7m in lost export revenue. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported revenue down 11% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 17%. The company said, "We delivered an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of R19.8 billion and an EBITDA margin of 52%, underpinned by an average realised free-on-board (FOB) export price of US$106/wet metric tonne (wmt), 4% above the average benchmark price. Production increased by 6%". The company lost R6bn to copper cable theft during the period. In a production report on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported total production down 2% and iron ore sales down 6%. The company said, "...multiple Transnet equipment failures and adverse weather conditions at Saldanha Bay Port in September impacted ship loading. As a consequence, sales decreased by 12% relative to Q3 2022 and by 6% compared to Q2 2023". The share trades at a multiple of 9,73 and a dividend yield (DY) of 6,39% - which seems to compensate the investor for the commodity risk in this rand-hedge share.
JSE:KIO
by PDSnetSA