Weekly game plan 17 Jan 2021 - KIOKumba looking like it's set up nicely for a pullback. With the strengthening DXY as a tailwind, weaker commodities could lead KIO lower.
KIO trade ideas
KIO a stones throw away from targetSometimes trades take a long time to play out. This one is going really well. With some luck, it'll trade through the target tomorrow.
Kumba breaks out the Symmetrical triangle patternKumba breaks through the triangle pattern
Entering the trade market open tomorrow
Stop-loss: 48950c
Target: 67407c
Symmetrical triangle on KumbaWe have a decent looking symmetrical triangle, looking good for the continuation to the upside. Using the width of the triangle pattern 67350c looks good as a minimum target.
Symmetrical triangle on Kumba continuation?Kumba looks rather undecided, but a breakout to the upside looks interesting. Could we see the share break the all-time highs?
Kumba - Double BottomJSE:KIO has formed a double bottom with the last couple of days' movement. A doji formed on the 29th of October followed by a hammer candle which can be both seen as reversal signs. The double bottom, candle patterns, MACD and stochastic are all pointing upwards, so I will consider a long position if it trades higher.
KIO- Support brokenWith Kumba Iron Ore having broken short term support, it really opens up much lower levels from here. The next major level of support is way down at around 440.00. With it currently trading below 510.00 I think any bounce can be short sold. Ideally we'd want to short at 535.00 but I don't think we'll get it.
KUMBA - upward momentumJSE:KIO is heading upward for a long position. The MACD, Stochastic and EMA's are all showing confirmation for a move to the upside. This coupled with the fact that it has recently made 2 higher lows and fails to break lower, could mean a nice move upwards to the previous resistance level.
possible inverse H&S on KUMBATwo possible scenarios on KUMBA..since the market is in an ascending channel and has rejected at the upper end of the channel we can expect the market to pull back to the lower end of the channel where it can find buyers ...if the market decides to break above the neckline we would have to wait for the neck line to act as support and then look for buying evidence
KUMBA IRON ORE 1D - UPWARD MOMENTUMAll the signs point to a movement upward. Stochastic has room left to the upside. I am trading this one more on feel than analytics. I am buying at 52160, stop 47313 and targeting 58740.
Bullish flag on Kumba Iron OreWe have a bullish flag on Kumba. The share closed the week with a bullish engulfing candle. After testing the base of the flag. Looking for a close above R509.97 the high of the engulfing candle on the daily chart. Targeting the R639 levels.
KIO Falling wedgeKIO broken out of a falling wedge and also reclaimed the 50sma. Recent highs should now be targeted.
KIO - Short IdeaI'm not a big fan of going against the trend but this weekly candle plus the point of resistance just seems too good. A close on the daily below R550 triggers the short trade with a stop loss above a close of R580. Targets are R525 and R475. Worth noting that a weaker ZAR and stronger commodities price may turn this trade around so keeping an eye on those fundamental plays will be key for this trade to work out or fail.
KIO - Volume Drying Up At These Highs
- Reversal Candle
- Bearish Divergence on MACD
- Small Bearish Divergence on 7-Day RSI
R551.82
$JSEKIO Kumba could reverse soonKeep a close eye on Kumba Iron ore around current levels. Two important inflection points are of interest to me:
(1) The stock has been quite sticky around the 200 day moving average (green line) in the recent past. The 200 day moving average often becomes support and resistance for the stock. (as indicated by the green blocks) Currently the stock seems to be consolidating around the 200 day moving average and i would expect a top to form around these levels.
(2) Most importantly, the declining trend-line joining the tops since July 2019 comes in at these levels. Stock is currently resisting off this trend-line.
In addition, volume has tapered off on the rise which doesn't instill to much confidence in the move higher. The Relative Strength Indicator has not managed to break above the RSI 63 level since October 2019 and is also currently resisting once again.
Putting all of the above together, I would favor Kumba Iron Ore retreating from current levels. Look to short between R370-R380, using a stop loss as a close above R390. Target on the downside: R305.
KIOKIO - from my research note (Sunday 10 May 2020)
On Friday, KIO printed an inverted hammer candle formation, having traded into the underside of it’s declining 200-day simple moving average. Of interest is the 1-day volume increase despite – tis despite the fact that it was a UK bank holiday (offshore being responsible for a large portion of our volumes traded). The RSI is strong however is becoming moderately overbought with a 60 print. In addition, the RSI is printing a slightly lower level that the prior swing high. Currently (last close) at 36333c, the 37600c-37900c range should monitored as a potential distribution zone.
Weekly game plan 10 May 2020 - KIODown trend is being tested, weakness starting to become evident in momentum, macro picture still negative.
Kumba for the bounce- We're long!Kumba has fallen significantly more than the dividend today and the divi drop today has coincided with a significant support level. I don't mind having missed out on the dividend as I believe at current levels, KIO presents some nice upside potential. IF we get some surprise stimulus from the ECB tomorrow and Christine shows us the size of her bazooka, we could see a bounce across the commodities complex. Whether it happens or not. SMART has bought KIO at 258.50 for a target of around 335.00. My stop is placed just below that long support at 238.00
$JSE-KIOJSE:KIO
Breaking long term support and breaking down form bearish flag.
Looks very bearish to me.
Weekly game plan 16 February 2020 - KIOLots happening here... overall setup is bearish (see related ideas), although we could see a bounce off the trend line here. Is that the bounce that gives us the short entry on the weekly, or does it invalidate our short setup? Not sure. No call here, just an observation.
