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MTN trade ideas

$JSEMTN - MTN: Is The Bottom Finally In? 7043cps Holds The KeySee link below for previous analysis. MTN did not take long to reverse aggressively after the previous analysis. The bounce from 7043 cps looks impulsive and has broken above an intermediate trendline with wave 5 of (C); I will get more conviction with a break above 9876 cps as that will confirm that wave 5 is complete in the context of the ending diagonal. The MACD also shows positive signals; there has been strong convergence below the zero line and the momentum indicator has broken a strong resistance trendline above the zero line. I am bullish above 7043 cps with a buy the dips strategy.
JSE:MTNLong
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
LONG MTN Group pending trend reversalJSE listed telecommunication entity, one that has a footprint in many African countries has had their share price under some pressure for some time now. Trading near near it's lowest levels pre-covid, which it broke due to panic selling during the pandemic. It then made significant recovery since those lows that hammered values with over 200% gains. All those gains have lost in the past 2 years of trading. MTN is a large South African entity with dominance considering it only has 2 other competitors it wrestles for market share. Earnings should be coming out soon, hopefully these will change investor sentiment positively. Looking for price to close above previous support of R78.32 to signal buying taking place. This will be a value play for me, meaning I'll be looking to hold the stock as part of portfolio till I enough valid reasons to sell it. Current yield is at 4.8%, an increase in the share price would cover the below inflation return
JSE:MTNLong
by ThabangBangstarMolefe
$JSEMTN - MTN: 7753 Invalidated, Now What?See link below for previous analysis. 7753 cps eventually gave way triggering an update of the wave count. I have shifted the terminal wave E of the (B) wave triangle and I an now counting the sell-off from 14289 cps as an ending diagonal/falling wedge. I maintain that a bottom is near and I will monitor price at the low trendline of the wedge. The MACD is still giving a bullish convergence signal, indicating that selling momentum is weak. I am neutral at this juncture as it is a bit late to be bearish.
JSE:MTN
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
$JSEMTN - MTN: Is The Bottom Finally In? 7753 Needs To HoldSee link below for previous analysis. MTN released its FY'23 results on the 25th of March and it was a mixed bag of results. Salient features: Group service revenue grew by 6.9% (13.5%*) to R210.1bn (2022: R196.5bn) EBITDA (before once-off items) down by 0.5% (9.8%*) to R90.5bn (2022: R90.8bn) EBITDA margin lower by 3.0 percentage points (pp) to 40.9% (1.2 pp* lower to 41.5% *) Basic earnings per share (EPS) decreased by 78.5% to 227cps (2022: restated 1 054cps) Reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) down by 72.3% to 315cps (2022: restated 1 137cps); non-operational impacts decreased HEPS by 888cps Holding company (Holdco) leverage improved to 1.4x (December 2021: 0.8x) Adjusted return on equity (ROE) increased by 0.2pp to 24.4% (restated 2022: restated 24.2% ) Total subscribers increased by 2.0% to 294.8 million Final dividend declared of 330cps (2022: 330cps) These results did not deter investors much as the stock shrugged of the results and the stock trended higher in the following sessions. Technically, the reversal signals I was looking for have materialized. *The MACD gave a buy signal and has broken above the zero-line. *The five wave decline from 14299 looks complete at 7753. No matter how good the wave count looks, one can never be certain that a bottom is in but I am bullish and this outlook will only be invalidated by a break below 7753
JSE:MTNLong
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of MTNMTN, a leading emerging market mobile operator, serves a vast customer base of 290 million people across 19 countries in Africa and the Middle East, with significant subscriber bases in Iran, Nigeria, and South Africa. The company operates in a challenging environment characterized by fierce competition and declining voice revenue, offset to some extent by the growth in data usage. However, political risks in key markets such as Iran and Nigeria add to its overall risk profile. To diversify its revenue streams and address these challenges, MTN is expanding into fintech services, partnering with Sanlam to offer insurance products and rolling out mobile money services in several countries. The company aims to become a digital operator with a focus on fintech, digital, enterprise, and wholesale business areas. Despite its efforts to expand into new sectors, MTN faces regulatory and tax challenges in some markets. For instance, it received a tax assessment of $773 million from Ghanaian authorities, reminiscent of similar challenges in Nigeria. However, partnerships such as the one with Mastercard, which took a significant stake in its fintech business, provide opportunities for growth and innovation. In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, MTN reported a 6.9% increase in service revenue but a significant decline of 72.3% in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The decline in HEPS may be attributed to various factors, including regulatory challenges and economic volatility in key markets like Nigeria. With a current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 29.14, MTN's stock appears expensive, especially considering its recent downward trend since March 2022. Investors are advised to monitor the stock closely and wait for a clear upside break from the downward trendline before considering further investment.
JSE:MTN
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of MTNMTN, a prominent mobile operator in emerging markets, serves a vast customer base of 290 million people, including 29 million in South Africa, across 19 countries in Africa and the Middle East. The company's substantial subscriber bases are primarily located in Iran, Nigeria, and South Africa. Like many in the mobile service industry, MTN faces intense competition and a decline in voice revenue, challenges partially offset by a significant rise in data usage. However, the company's operations are deemed particularly risky due to the political instability in Iran and Nigeria. In a strategic move to diversify its revenue streams, MTN is collaborating with Sanlam to introduce insurance products to its clientele, aiming to establish fintech as a core component of its business model. This initiative reflects MTN's ambition to transform into a digital operator with a focus on fintech, digital services, enterprise, and wholesale business areas. The rollout of mobile money services in Nigeria and South Africa, extending to 14 of the 21 countries where it operates, underscores this ambition. With 41.8 million mobile money customers, MTN is targeting an increase to 60 million users. Additionally, MTN's listing on the Nigerian stock exchange marks a significant milestone in its expansion efforts. However, MTN's operations have not been without challenges. On 13th January 2023, the company was hit with a $773 million (approximately R13.3 billion) tax assessment by the Ghanaian tax authorities, an action perceived as a financial shakedown similar to a previous incident in Nigeria. Despite these hurdles, MTN reported a 16.5% increase in service revenue and a 7.1% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the six months ending 30th June 2023. The subscriber count also saw a modest increase to 291.7 million. The partnership with Mastercard, which involves a R100 billion stake in MTN's fintech business, represents a significant endorsement of MTN's fintech initiatives and its potential for growth. Nevertheless, the company faced challenges in maintaining its performance amidst high inflation rates across its markets, as indicated in the update for the three months ending 30th September 2023, with service revenue up by 9% and a slight increase in total subscribers. Looking ahead, MTN's financial outlook appears pressured, with an estimated 60% to 80% drop in HEPS for the year ending 31st December 2023, attributed to non-operational factors such as hyperinflation adjustments and foreign exchange losses, particularly from naira depreciation. This situation highlights the impact of economic volatility in Nigeria on MTN's overall performance. With a current P:E ratio of 7.06 and a declining share price since March 2022, the recommendation is to monitor the share's trend closely and consider investing only upon a clear upward trendline break, indicating a potential reversal in its fortunes.
JSE:MTN
by PDSnetSA
$JSEMTN - MTN: 8700 Invalidated, What's The Alternative Outlook?See link below for previous analysis. MTN stock had a strong rally from 8700 to 11800 and as per the previous analysis, it turned out to be a dead cat bounce as price has broken below 8700. I have changed the triangle wave count slightly {previously have wave E of (B) terminating at 14289} which gives a new perspective for the decline from 14299. The decline from 14299 to the current price can be labelled as a five wave impulse. There are no signs of a reversal yet so I will not get ahead of myself. I am on the lookout however for a MACD convergence buy signal that could give an early signal of a potential bottom. I am more interest in upside based on this wave count but i will sit on my hands until I see bullish price action.
JSE:MTN
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
UPDATE: MTN on the way to the R60.65 level :(Diamond Formation formed on MTN. This is a broadening pattern that could have broke either way. The fact that it broke down and almost retested the 200MA showed the momentum was down and bearish. Now it's on a one way trip down. First to R90.00 at next support If it breaks below we could very well see our main target at R60.65 FUNDAMENTALS MTN Group, a big telecom company in Africa, is facing a serious lawsuit in the US. They are accused of doing business with a group linked to terrorism, which could have helped fund terrorist activities. This is a big deal because it's the first time a company might be held responsible in the US for helping a terrorist group. Because of these legal issues, investors might be worried about MTN's future. This concern can lead to a drop in MTN's stock price, as investors might sell their shares fearing potential financial losses or damage to the company's reputation.
JSE:MTNShort
by Timonrosso
MTN Black Diamond to take the price to R60.65?Diamond Formation formed over ther last two years with MTN. Now initially, you wait for a breakout before you trade a broadening pattern like the diamond. And then, we saw it break below - showing the momentum and supply was higher to the downside. I sent this analysis out and called it a short investment. What that means is that this type of trade is a LONG hold and it will take time to hit the target. Luckily with CFDs you'll earn interest on the trade. And as price is staying below the 200MA, the target is still on to R60.65 Thoughts?
JSE:MTNShort
by Timonrosso
$JSEMTN - MTN: Is A Bottom In At 8700 cps? Early Speculative BuySee link below for previous analysis. MTN stock continued lower from the previous analysis. The stock has caught a bid at 8700 and might have a relief rally, dead cat bounce, or a bottom could be in at 8700 and this could be the early stages of a longer-tern rally. There is not much to support a thesis that a bottom is in as the bounce is not on high volume and there was no MACD/price convergence prior the bounce. It's all about probabilities and risk management so any long trades should use 8700 as a stop-loss level.
JSE:MTNLong
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of MTNMTN is a leading emerging market mobile operator, serving 290 million people (including 29m in South Africa) in 19 countries across Africa and the Middle East. MTN's three largest subscriber bases are in Iran, Nigeria and South Africa. Generally, companies supplying a mobile service have been faced with very stiff competition and declining voice revenue. The sharp increase in data usage has, to some extent, mitigated this change, but these companies remain quite risky. MTN is especially risky because of the political risk in Iran and Nigeria. MTN is working with Sanlam to offer insurance products to its clients in the hopes that "fintech" will become a major part of its business. The goal is to turn MTN into a "digital operator with a major focus on the fintech, digital, enterprise and wholesale business areas". MTN has rolled out its mobile money services in both Nigeria and South Africa. It is currently offering these services in 14 out of the 21 countries where it operates, and it has 41,8m mobile money customers. It is trying to increase that number to 60m. MTN has now listed on the Nigerian stock exchange. On 13th January 2023, MTN received an assessment from the Ghanaian tax authorities that it owed $773m (about R13,3bn). This is seen as a "shakedown" of a wealthy international company by a cash-strapped national government - similar to what happened in Nigeria. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported service revenue up 16,5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up by 7,1%. Total subscribers increased by 3,6% to 291,7m. The company said, "Our business continued to grow in a challenging trading environment, with data traffic and fintech transaction volumes up by 18.5% (up 35.0% excluding JV’s) and 37.3% respectively". The company also announced that Mastercard would take a R100bn stake in its fintech business and partner with it to expand that business. In an update on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported service revenue up by 9% and total subscribers up by 1,8% to 290,1m. The company said, "MTN maintained a resilient performance in the first nine months of 2023, as inflation remained elevated across our markets, with an average blended rate of 17.3% year-to-date (YTD) compared to 14.2% in 2022". MTN now trades on a P: E of 8,03 - which looks like good value to us. Technically, the share has been moving sideways since October 2022 and looks ready for an upside break.
JSE:MTN
by PDSnetSA