$JSENPN Looks Due For A Little RunAccording to the MACD on the Daily chart here Naspers ($JSENPN) looks set for a little run, however the yellow line overhead is not that far away, currently sitting at around R2815. With world markets on the verge of topping out, this is the best I am expecting at this time, if it even manages to get there.
NPN trade ideas
$JSENPN Naspers Some support coming upWeekly chart of Naspers indicates that the 2800 level was an important level and a break of that level means that support could only come up at around the 2000 - 2080 levels. The massive volume that traded over the last week on weakness is also not a very bullish signal, indicating that some institutional money is move away from this one. Chinese regulators are doing shareholder no favours with tech giants like Tencent in the firing line.
NaspersDaily chart is in a short-term downtrend, but price approaching a long-term trendline around 2,400 on the weekly timeframe; which area is also coinciding with the 200 week-moving-average.
Interesting thing to note about this 200-week-moving-average is that, though it has been tested a couple of times, it has never been breached!
JSE:NPN NASPERS Do Not Get Sucked into Yesterdays RecoveryWe have been following the markdown of Naspers - see posts below. Yesterday there was a sharp recovery but one should not get caught up and think it is time to go long. Naspers remains week and the current bounce is just a retest of the yearly pivot levels. Naspers remains weaker than the market and there are no indications of a recovery. The bounce may indicate a consolidation range is starting, but it still looks like more weakness to come.
$JSENPN Back at its 200 week ma/ema, bounce incoming?the 200 day moving average/exponential moving average has been a great level of support for naspers over the last 3 years. Will the stock bounce again at this level? If history is anything to go by -Odds favor a bounce, but let's see how this unfolds
Naspers - What *Could* HappenHere we are, just below the closely watched R2800 level, down 6% today on around R2.1bn in value traded.
Today's price action reflects more of the Chinese regulation (DIDI) than the concerns around the share swap structure. As I note in my research report, published yesterday 04/07: "It may be worth monitoring NPN & PRX over the next few days/week or two. My sense of that prices are starting to stabilize, with the concerns over the share swap structure discounted in the share price to a certain extent. What's also interesting is Friday's reversal candle while over the last week the price has made a small series of higher lows. Also not the RSI developing higher highs vs lower lows on the price (positive divergence). Closely watched support at R2800"
As you can see, I've retained the annotations on the chart, accounting for the potential price drop (happening today).
What *Could* Happen: We know that the share has been under pressure, having declined from R3888 in Jan 2021 to today's low of R2750. *IF" the share opens weaker TOMORROW, traders should monitor if the following occurs during the session: a print below today's low and a reclaim of the that low on an intraday basis. This will signal temporary relief and the potential for a short term bullish reversal.
As always, I'll be monitoring in real-time for any sign of reversal.
JSE:NPN Naspers Breakout Following the markdown of Naspers - see posts below. After a smaller redistribution range, we are seeing a break out of this smaller range today continuing the push lower. The next important level down is the yearly pivot point at R2800. In the smaller redistribution range, there was a particularly high volume upthrust (ut) indicating the selloff is gaining momentum and some panic selling is happening.
Naspers Relative To JSE Equally Weighted Top 40For long term investors/traders, the decision whether to be underweight or overweight NPN can be supported by also bearing in mind this chart:
Naspers relative to the JSE Equally Weighted Top 40 Index (J2EQ): A decade-long channel breached to the downside while the RSI has lost it's horizontal support with a 46 reading (neutral becoming bearish) as per the monthly chart.
Allocation: Long Term Underweight