Our opinion on the current state of NEPIROCK(NRP)Nepi-Rockcastle (NRP) is a R124 billion real estate investment trust (REIT) that operates over 56 shopping malls across nine central and eastern European countries. The company's portfolio is concentrated mostly in Poland (24%), Romania (35%), Slovakia (9%), Bulgaria (8%), Croatia (5%), and Hungary (11%). Nepi-Rockcastle has a total portfolio valued at €6.3 billion (R124 billion), making it the largest property share on the JSE.
The share price has experienced significant volatility in recent years. It fell sharply following the release of the 360ne report in January 2018, which affected the entire Resilient group. The share dropped from its high of R217 in December 2017 to as low as R99 in November 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic further impacted the stock, driving it down to under R55 in March 2020. However, since then, the share has recovered, trading around R103.06 recently.
On 1st February 2022, Nepi-Rockcastle announced it was ordered to pay €30 million following a civil judgment by the Arbitral Tribunal in Poland. Despite this, the company has continued to perform well. In its results for the six months ending 30th June 2024, it reported a 13.5% increase in net income and a 3.56% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The vacancy rate remained low at 2.7%, and the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio was 32.2%. Property operating expenses decreased by 3.3%, thanks to lower energy costs and operational efficiencies, while the recovery rate improved from 93% to 94%. The company also reported a strong liquidity position of almost €1.3 billion, including €672 million in cash and cash equivalents and €620 million in undrawn credit facilities.
Technically, the share has been in a strong upward trend since 1st November 2023 and is viewed as good value at current levels. The upward trend is expected to continue.
On 18th October 2024, the company raised €300 million by selling 41.7 million ordinary shares, representing 6.2% of its issued share capital, at €7.191 (R137.85) per share. This represented a discount of 4.36% to the previous closing price of R144.13 on 17th October 2024. Despite the discount, the capital raise is seen as a positive move to strengthen its liquidity and support future growth.
Overall, Nepi-Rockcastle remains a solid investment, particularly for those seeking exposure to European property markets, and continues to recover from past volatility.
NRP trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of NEPIROCK(NRP)Nepi-Rockcastle (NRP) is a R124bn real estate investment trust (REIT) that operates more than 56 shopping malls across nine Central and Eastern European countries, with significant operations in Poland (24%), Romania (35%), Slovakia (9%), Bulgaria (8%), Croatia (5%), and Hungary (11%). The share experienced a significant drop alongside the rest of the Resilient group following the release of the 360ne report in January 2018, falling from a high of R217 in December 2017 to as low as R99 in November 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic further impacted the share price, driving it down to under R55 in March 2020. Since then, it has recovered to around R103,06.
The company's total portfolio is valued at 6,3 billion euros (R124bn), making it the largest property share on the JSE. On 1st February 2022, Nepi-Rockcastle announced it had to pay 30 million euros following a civil judgment by the Arbitral Tribunal in Poland.
In its results for the six months ending 30th June 2024, the company reported net income up 13,5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 3,56%. The vacancy rate was low at 2,7%, and the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio was 32,2%. The company noted that property operating expenses decreased by 3,3% between H1 2023 and H1 2024, driven by lower energy costs and operational efficiencies. The recovery rate improved from 93% to 94%. Additionally, the group maintained a strong liquidity position of almost €1.3 billion as of 30th June 2024, consisting of cash and cash equivalents of €672 million and undrawn available credit facilities of €620 million.
Technically, the share has shown a convincing recovery from the pandemic and has been in a strong upward trend since 1st November 2023. We still regard it as good value at current levels and expect the upward trend to continue.
NEPI Castle ready to Rock up to R159.60 W Formation formed on NEPI.
It's a W Formation because the second rounding bottom is more than 50% the height of the first.
Nature: High probability analysis
Price>20
Price>200
Uptrend (Safety line - check)
First target will be at R159.60
I personally don't have experience trading this market, so not sure how it will play out - but the candles and liquidity seem ok.
Our opinion on the current state of NEPIROCK(NRP)Nepi-Rockcastle (NRP) is a prominent real estate investment trust (REIT) that plays a significant role in the European commercial property market. As a member of the Resilient group, it experienced significant market fluctuations due to external factors, including a scandalous report in 2018 and the global COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these challenges, the REIT has shown resilience and a commendable recovery trajectory.
Nepi-Rockcastle operates an extensive portfolio of over 56 shopping malls across nine Central and Eastern European countries, with significant presences in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Hungary. Its portfolio was valued at €6.3 billion (approximately R124 billion), making it the largest property share on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in terms of portfolio value.
The company's share price journey reflects the volatility inherent in the real estate sector and broader market sentiments. From a high of R217 in December 2017, it dropped significantly to R99 in November 2018 due to negative press and further plummeted to below R55 in March 2020 amid the pandemic. However, as of the latest updates, the share has recovered to around R103.06, indicating a stabilizing trend and investor confidence.
Financially, Nepi-Rockcastle reported a robust year in 2023, with net rental income increasing by 21% and a modest 2.3% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The management highlighted an impressive collection rate of 98% of the reported revenues for 2023 as of December 31, which increased to over 99% by mid-February 2024. The company's investment property was valued at €6.8 billion as of the end of 2023, showing growth from €6.6 billion at the end of 2022. Nepi-Rockcastle also maintains a strong liquidity position, with €909 million available, including €339 million in cash and €570 million in undrawn committed credit facilities. Its loan-to-value (LTV) ratio was at 32.2% as of the end of December 2023, which is below the strategic upper threshold of 35%.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company continued its positive performance with a 12.7% increase in net operating income and a 10.5% rise in tenant sales. This growth is attributed to strong tenant performance and proactive asset management across its high-quality portfolio.
Technically, the stock has shown a strong upward trend since November 2023 and has been moving sideways since March 2024. Considering its recent performance and strategic position in the European market, Nepi-Rockcastle appears to be a valuable investment at its current levels. The company's strategic management, robust financial health, and significant market presence in a region with growing economic prospects support a positive outlook for continued growth and potentially higher investor returns.
Our opinion on the current state of NRPNepi Rockcastle (NRP), a significant Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with a valuation of R124 billion, specializes in managing over 56 shopping malls across nine Central and Eastern European countries. The company's portfolio is particularly concentrated in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Hungary. Nepi Rockcastle's share price experienced significant volatility, initially impacted by the fallout from the 360ne report in January 2018, which saw its value drop from a high of R217 in December 2017 to R99 in November 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated its decline, taking the share price down to under R55 in March 2020. However, a recovery phase has since seen the share price rise to around R103,06.
As of 31st December 2023, the company's portfolio was valued at 6.3 billion euros (approximately R124 billion), establishing it as the largest property share on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). A notable development in 2022 was a 30 million euro civil judgment by the Arbitral Tribunal in Poland, which the company was required to pay.
In its annual results for the year ending 31st December 2023, Nepi Rockcastle reported a 21% increase in net rental income and a 2.3% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The company highlighted a collection rate of 98% of the reported revenues for 2023 as of 31st December 2023, which increased to over 99% by mid-February 2024. The investment property was valued at 6.8 billion euros as of the end of 2023, an increase from 6.6 billion euros at the end of 2022. The Group's liquidity position was reported at 909 million euros, including 339 million euros in cash and 570 million euros in undrawn committed credit facilities, maintaining a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 32.2%, comfortably below the strategic upper threshold of 35%.
Technically, Nepi Rockcastle's share has shown a strong recovery from the pandemic's impacts, with a notable upward trend since 1st November 2023. This performance suggests that the company is well-positioned for further growth, supported by its robust portfolio, strategic geographic presence, and sound financial management. The current valuation and upward trajectory in the share price indicate that Nepi Rockcastle remains an attractive investment proposition, particularly for investors seeking exposure to the European retail property market.
Our opinion on the current state of NRPNepi-Rockcastle (NRP) is a R124bn real estate investment trust (REIT) which operates more than 56 shopping malls in 9 central and eastern European countries, mostly in Poland (24%), Romania (35%), Slovakia (9%), Bulgaria (8%), Croatia (5%) and Hungary (11%). The share fell with the rest of the Resilient group (as a result of the 360ne report in January 2018) from its high of R217 in December 2017 to as low as R99 in November 2018 and then the COVID-19 pandemic took it down to under R55 in March 2020. Since then it has staged a recovery to around R103,06. The company's total portfolio is worth 6,3bn euros (R124bn) and it ranks as the largest property share on the JSE. On 1st February 2022 the company announced that it had to pay 30m euros in a civil judgement by the Arbitral Tribunal in Poland. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported rental income up 23% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 40,79%. The company said, "On a like for like ('LFL') basis NOI was 15% higher in H1 2023 compared to H1 2022, excluding the contribution of the acquisitions completed in 2022 (Forum Gdansk Shopping Centre, Copernicus Shopping Centre in December and 50% of Shopping City Ploiesti in September)". In an update on the 9 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported net operating income up 23%. The company said, "The three acquisitions made in 2022 - Forum Gdansk and Copernicus shopping centres in Poland and the 50% share of the Ploiesti Shopping City in Romania – contributed €28 million to the NOI for 9M 2023". In a pre-close update on the final quarter of 2023 the company estimated that net operating income would increase by more than 20% and footfall after 11 months up 6% on the previous year. The company said, "By the end of October, year-to-date (YTD) cumulative tenant sales were 13% higher than in the prior year like-for-like (LFL). A strong rebound in the performance of cinemas made Entertainment one of the top performing categories, with a 23% rise". Technically, the share has recovered convincingly from the pandemic and has been in a strong upward trend since 1st November 2023. We still regard it as good value at current levels and expect the upward trend to continue.
$JSENRP - Nepi Rockcastle: Maintaining Bullish OutlookSee link below for previous analysis.
Nepi has held firm since the last update.
The outlook is still intact and I am forecasting a strong move up from 9764 as a third of the third wave which tends to be very strong.
Short-term aggressive traders can use 9764 as a stop-loss level.
Our opinion on the current state of NRPNepi-Rockcastle (NRP) is a R124bn real estate investment trust (REIT) which operates more than 56 shopping malls in 9 central and eastern European countries, mostly in Poland (24%), Romania (35%), Slovakia (9%), Bulgaria (8%), Croatia (5%) and Hungary (11%). The share fell with the rest of the Resilient group (as a result of the 360ne report in January 2018) from its high of R217 in December 2017 to as low as R99 in November 2018 and then the COVID-19 pandemic took it down to under R55 in March 2020. Since then it has staged a recovery to around R103,06. The company's total portfolio is worth 6,3bn euros (R124bn) and it ranks as the largest property share on the JSE. On 1st February 2022 the company announced that it had to pay 30m euros in a civil judgement by the Arbitral Tribunal in Poland. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported rental income up 23% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 40,79%. The company said, "On a like for like ('LFL') basis NOI was 15% higher in H1 2023 compared to H1 2022, excluding the contribution of the acquisitions completed in 2022 (Forum Gdansk Shopping Centre, Copernicus Shopping Centre in December and 50% of Shopping City Ploiesti in September)". In an update on the 9 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported net operating income up 23%. The company said, "The three acquisitions made in 2022 - Forum Gdansk and Copernicus shopping centres in Poland and the 50% share of the Ploiesti Shopping City in Romania – contributed €28 million to the NOI for 9M 2023". Technically, the share has recovered convincingly from the pandemic. We still regard it as good value at current levels.
NEPI Rockcastle's Chart: A Bearish Forecast with a Target of 80.NEPI Rockcastle's Chart: A Bearish Forecast with a Target of 80.
NEPI Rockcastle plc
1. Price Formation: The price has previously broken out of an M price formation on a daily chart and hit a target. Bearish sentiment.
2. Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is below the 21-day MA.
3. 200-day Moving Average is above the Price.
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is < than 50.
6. Price Target:80
NEPI Rockcastle plc is a commercial property investor and developer. The company has a primary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and a secondary listing on the Euronext Amsterdam. The group is known for its portfolio of dominant retail assets and other commercial properties in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).
NEPI Rockcastle was formed from the merger of New Europe Property Investments (NEPI) and Rockcastle Global Real Estate. Their assets are primarily shopping centers in countries like Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and others.
The company's strategy has traditionally been to acquire, develop, and manage retail assets in the CEE region, which has seen relatively higher growth compared to Western Europe.
NRP: busy with wave 5?A price action above 10700 supports a bullish trend direction.
Increase the long exposure for a break above 11200.
Upside target is set at 11700.
Stop-loss is set at 10300.
When a share is said to be in "wave 5" of the Elliott Wave Analysis, it means that it has already completed four waves in the direction of the main trend and is currently in the fifth and final wave of the sequence.
Wave 5 is typically characterized by strong momentum and bullish sentiment, as investors who missed out on earlier buying opportunities rush to join the trend. However, this also means that the share may be reaching the end of its upward trend, and a corrective wave may follow soon.
$JSENRP - NEPI Rockcastle: Buying The Long-Term CycleNEPI listed on the JSE on 12 Jul 2017 and after an initial post-IPO run, the share price experienced a strong selloff from it high of R211,14.
The first selloff into early 2018 was a clear and crisp impulse for wave (A).
What followed was sideways consolidation in a triangle pattern for wave (B).
During this consolidation, NEPI's financial reporting came under scrutiny from notorious short-sellers Viceroy Research in a publication in November 28, 2018.
March 2020 saw another strong selloff for wave (C) triggered by the covid-19 outbreak to bottom at R49,90.
This (ABC) pattern is a textbook zigzag pattern and suggest there is a high probability that R49,90 is a long-term bottom.
The price action from the March 2020 low is still in its early stages but looks impulsive.
In the short-term, i recommend R78,29 as a stop-loss level but in the long-term, as long as price remains above R49,90 I am bullish NEPI.
$JSENRP Nepi Rockcastle. Upper channel resistance Nepi has together with most of the big players in the property space moved aggressively up in the last couple of months. Nepi has now reached the top of a larger channel and into a consolidation phase. This consolidation pattern (flag) needs to be watched carefully. An upper break through the 9600 levels could see a continuation of the upper trajectory. A break down from this flag pattern could see more downside. Neutral position and watching.
