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NETCARE LIMITED

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NTC trade ideas

Our opinion on the current state of NETCARE(NTC)The Netcare Group (NTC) operates healthcare facilities across South Africa and Lesotho. With 59 hospitals (including four public-private partnerships), it employs approximately 22,000 staff and manages 10,600 beds. Additionally, Netcare 911, its emergency response unit, operates from 79 locations with over 1,000 paramedics. While healthcare typically remains stable regardless of economic downturns due to unavoidable medical expenses, Netcare faces challenges stemming from the competitive medical aid sector, which often demands lower prices. On March 23, 2021, Netcare received notice from the Lesotho government terminating its contract to manage Queen Mamohato Hospital in Maseru following a wildcat strike by nurses. Most Netcare hospitals are equipped with full island capacity, enabling them to operate independently of the electrical grid. They also have uninterrupted power supply (UPS) systems and over 200 backup diesel generators. In its financial results for the year ending September 30, 2023, Netcare reported a 9.5% increase in revenue and a 36.5% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). Total paid patient days (PPDs), including acute and mental health care, grew by 6.7%, with average occupancy rising to 64.4%. An operational update covering the five months ending February 29, 2024, indicated that total PPDs increased by 0.3% compared to the previous period. Acute patient day activity remained above 94% of pre-pandemic levels, and the average acute occupancy reached 69.4% in February 2024, the highest since February 2020. Revenue per PPD increased by 6.2% in the first quarter of the fiscal year, while mental health services reported an 82.4% occupancy rate in February. A voluntary update for the six months ending March 31, 2024, revealed a 4.2-4.4% increase in revenue. However, PPDs declined by 0.8% compared to the prior period but increased by 0.4% in the subsequent seven months up to April. Technically, Netcare's share price has been declining since its peak at R43 in March 2015. After bottoming out at around R12 in March 2020, the share has mostly traded sideways, hitting a new low of 1,104c on May 2, 2024. It remains vulnerable, trading at a P/E ratio of 11.29, and could decline further unless it breaks above the 1,713c resistance level.
JSE:NTC
by PDSnetSA
$JSENTC - Netcare: 1130 Gives Way, Bear Not Over; What Now?See link below for previous analysis. Netcare recently broke below 1130 invalidating the outlook I had that a bottom was in at that level. There's a minor adjustment in the wave count with wave 4 of (C) a flat pattern and wave 5, starting from 1738cps, looks to be taking the shape of an ending diagonal. As to how much lower wave 5 can go is anyone's guess but I will be bearish until i see signs of a reversal.
JSE:NTCShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of NTCThe Netcare Group, identified by its ticker NTC, is a prominent player in the healthcare sector, operating an extensive network of hospitals and medical response teams throughout South Africa and Lesotho. The group boasts fifty-nine hospitals, including four public/private partnerships, employs 22,000 people in South Africa, and offers 10,600 beds. Netcare 911, the group's emergency response division, operates from seventy-nine sites with over 1,000 paramedics, showcasing the group's comprehensive healthcare services. Despite the general notion that healthcare services are immune to business cycle fluctuations due to the essential nature of healthcare, Netcare has experienced challenges. The company points to the competitive dynamics of medical aids, which exert pressure to accept lower prices, as a significant impact on its operations. This situation underscores the complexities within the healthcare market, where providers must navigate financial pressures while delivering essential services. A notable development for Netcare was the termination of its contract to manage the Queen Mamohato Hospital in Maseru by the Lesotho government on 23rd March 2021, following a wildcat strike by nursing staff. This event highlights the operational challenges that can arise in international partnerships and the management of healthcare facilities. Netcare has taken steps to ensure the resilience of its operations, particularly in terms of energy supply. The vast majority of its hospitals possess full island capacity, enabling them to operate independently of the grid. This capability is bolstered by Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) systems and a fleet of 200 backup diesel generators, ensuring that healthcare services remain uninterrupted despite external power issues. For the fiscal year ending 30th September 2023, Netcare reported a 9.5% increase in revenue and a notable 36.5% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The company highlighted a 6.7% increase in total paid patient days (PPD), inclusive of acute and mental health services, with improved occupancies reaching 64.4% for FY 2023, up from 60.1% in the previous fiscal year. This growth in activity and occupancy rates contributed to the reported revenue growth. In an operational update covering the five months to 29th February 2024, Netcare provided insights into its performance, noting a marginal 0.3% growth in PPD compared to the prior period. The average acute patient day activity remained robust, at over 94% of pre-pandemic levels, with February 2024 witnessing the highest acute occupancy rate since February 2020 at 69.4%. The demand for mental health services also showed strength, with an average occupancy of 82.4% in February 2024. Additionally, the company reported a 6.2% increase in total revenue per PPD for the segment in Q1 FY 2024. Despite these positive operational indicators, Netcare's share price has experienced a downward trend since peaking at R43 in March 2015, hitting a low around R12 in March 2020, and has since been moving sideways without a clear upward breakout. The share appears vulnerable at a P:E ratio of 13.65, suggesting potential for further decline. Investors and analysts are likely awaiting a significant break above resistance at 1713c to signal a change in trend and to assess the stock's future performance more positively.
JSE:NTC
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of NTCThe Netcare Group (NTC) operates hospitals and medical response teams throughout South Africa and Lesotho. It has fifty-nine hospitals, four of which are public/private partnerships, employs 22000 people in South Africa and has 10600 beds. Netcare 911 operates from seventy-nine sites and has over 1000 paramedics. Healthcare is generally not impacted by the business cycle because consumers have to pay for their healthcare, even in a recession, but Netcare says it is being impacted by the competitive nature of medical aids which force them to take lower prices. On 23rd March 2021 Netcare received a letter from the Lesotho government cancelling its contract to run the Queen Mamohato Hospital in Maseru over a wildcat strike by nursing staff. The vast majority of Netcare’s hospitals have full island capacity, allowing them to operate independently of the grid. In addition, all facilities are supported by Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) systems and a fleet of 200 backup diesel generators across the portfolio. In its results for the year to 30th September 2023 the company reported revenue up 9,5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 36,5%. The company said, "Total paid patient days (“PPD”), inclusive of acute and mental health, increased by 6.7% with improved occupancies of 64.4% for FY 2023 (FY 2022: 60.1%). The sustained improvement in activity, off a largely organic base, supported revenue growth of 9.5%". Technically, the share was in a downward trend since its peak of R43 in March 2015 until its bottom in March 2020 at around R12. Since then the share has been drifting sideways and there is no upward break yet in sight. We need to see a break above resistance at 1713c. On a P:E of 15,85 the share still appears vulnerable and may fall further.
JSE:NTC
by PDSnetSA
JSE's Netcare Limited a buy or "news hype"?JSE:NTC soared from lows of R5.81 in October 2008 only to have the Bulls get a wing snip at R44.38 in March 2015. The stock has since been on a steep meltdown with short term pullback bull-trends typically lasting less than 12 months. It has now been almost 3 year with the price caught in a falling wedge from a pullback that started in December 2020, which may be the 1st signal of "Change of Character" in market structure. This pullback also coincides with a double bottom that formed at the 38.20% of the initial bullish impulse that started in October 2008. Yesterday's earnings news saw the stock closing strongly bullish and challenging a strong internal resistance following a steep pullback from a "W" reaction at the support band of the 3 year falling wedge. On the 1H time frame, the stock formed a rising channel intraday at this internal resistance, indicating a possible "last push" by the bears towards R12.30 ~ R12.50 before the bulls flex the sharpness of their horns to take the prices higher. Long term targets to lookout for are: R17.38 R21.30 R27.00 R44.54 A nasty possible (but slightly unlikely) side of the coin would be price going below 12.00, where levels of R9.80 and R5.60 may be visited. Current sentiments: Bullish on a strong "Daily Close" above R14.26 or bullish "Daily Close" from R12.30~12.50 zone.
JSE:NTC
by Source_Sailor
Our opinion on the current state of NTCThe Netcare Group (NTC) operates hospitals and medical response teams throughout South Africa and Lesotho. It has fifty-nine hospitals, four of which are public/private partnerships, employs 22000 people in South Africa and has 10600 beds. Netcare 911 operates from seventy-nine sites and has over 1000 paramedics. Healthcare is generally not impacted by the business cycle because consumers have to pay for their healthcare, even in a recession, but Netcare says it is being impacted by the competitive nature of medical aids which force them to take lower prices. On 23rd March 2021 Netcare received a letter from the Lesotho government cancelling its contract to run the Queen Mamohato Hospital in Maseru over a wildcat strike by nursing staff. The vast majority of Netcare’s hospitals have full island capacity, allowing them to operate independently of the grid. In addition, all facilities are supported by Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) systems and a fleet of 200 backup diesel generators across the portfolio. In its results for the six months to 31st March 2023 the company reported revenue up 11,9% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 40,4%. The company said, "Acute hospital occupancies for March 2023 recorded the highest level since the onset of the pandemic. The sustained improvement in activity has resulted in Group revenue for H1 2023 exceeding H1 2019 pre-pandemic revenue by 9.7%". These latest results underscore Netcare's defensive nature. In an update on the year to 30th September 2023 the company said, "Notwithstanding the constrained economic environment and unseasonal lower activity during June and July 2023, total paid patient days (“PPD”) for FY 2023 are expected to grow by c. 6.8% against FY 2022. Revenue for FY 2023 for the Group and the Hospital and emergency services segment is expected to grow by 9.0% to 10.0% compared to the FY 2022 Group revenue of R21 636 million and Hospital and emergency services revenue of R21 024 million". In a trading statement for the year to 30th September 2023 the company estimated that HEPS would increase by between 35% and 38%. Technically, the share was in a downward trend since its peak of R43 in March 2015 until its bottom in March 2020 at around R12. Since then the share has been drifting sideways and there is no upward break yet in sight. We need to see a break above resistance at 1713c. On a P:E of 15,18 the share still appears vulnerable and may fall further.
JSE:NTC
by PDSnetSA
Netcare ready to break above the Vuvuzela?Netcare has been in its downtrend since May 2023... It shortly dropped from R16.00 down to R13.68. And then, the price has been meandering in a downtrend below the 200MA since... As long as it stays in the Vuvuzela Formation, it will continue to go down. We need a strong breakout and for the price to close above the resistance of the pattern, before we put on our horns. Once we're in, the first target will be to the top of the downtrend level at R16.19. Until then, it's a waiting game.
JSE:NTCLong
by Timonrosso
Our opinion on the current state of NTCThe Netcare Group (NTC) operates hospitals and medical response teams throughout South Africa and Lesotho. It has fifty-nine hospitals, four of which are public/private partnerships, employs 22000 people in South Africa and has 10600 beds. Netcare 911 operates from seventy-nine sites and has over 1000 paramedics. Healthcare is generally not impacted by the business cycle because consumers have to pay for their healthcare, even in a recession, but Netcare says it is being impacted by the competitive nature of medical aids which force them to take lower prices. On 23rd March 2021 Netcare received a letter from the Lesotho government cancelling its contract to run the Queen Mamohato Hospital in Maseru over a wildcat strike by nursing staff. The vast majority of Netcare’s hospitals have full island capacity, allowing them to operate independently of the grid. In addition, all facilities are supported by Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) systems and a fleet of 200 backup diesel generators across the portfolio. In its results for the six months to 31st March 2023 the company reported revenue up 11,9% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 40,4%. The company said, "Acute hospital occupancies for March 2023 recorded the highest level since the onset of the pandemic. The sustained improvement in activity has resulted in Group revenue for H1 2023 exceeding H1 2019 pre-pandemic revenue by 9.7%". These latest results underscore Netcare's defensive nature. In an update on the year to 30th September 2023 the company said, "Notwithstanding the constrained economic environment and unseasonal lower activity during June and July 2023, total paid patient days (“PPD”) for FY 2023 are expected to grow by c. 6.8% against FY 2022. Revenue for FY 2023 for the Group and the Hospital and emergency services segment is expected to grow by 9.0% to 10.0% compared to the FY 2022 Group revenue of R21 636 million and Hospital and emergency services revenue of R21 024 million". Technically, the share was in a downward trend since its peak of R43 in March 2015 until its bottom in March 2020 at around R12. Since then the share has been drifting sideways and there is no upward break yet in sight. We need to see a break above resistance at 1713c. On a P:E of 15,26 the share still appears vulnerable and may fall further.
JSE:NTC
by PDSnetSA
NTCA chart is preparation for today's research reports. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today. The share is down from my previous short/sell idea (published on this platform, see attached) at 1620-1635c to today's multi-month low of 1262c (-22%). Thursday 07-Sep-2023, 17h39 Netcare Ltd (NTC, 1300c). The selling has been relentless and this may not be the exact bottom however today's candle (at the previous swing low) was enough for me to take note of a potential trading opportunity. The candle structure in question is a long lower tail, at support, within an oversold range. I'd like to see the share stop going down, then develop a base which can lead to a bullish reversal.
JSE:NTCLong
by techpers
NTCA chart from today's report (zoomed in slightly vs the one in my report). For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today. NETCARE (NTC, 1419c) | Daily Chart | Monday, 31 July 2023 (Pre-Market) | NTC is a popular range trading instrument however there is no guarantee that the range will continue to hold. Whilst pattern failures are possible, throughout last week, the development of the channel was enough for me to take note of a potential opportunity. Then, on Friday, the strong candle structure with a +3.28% move placed the share firmly on the radar. Here, the 1421c level is overhead supply, however clearing this resistance could open up a swing buy/long. Note, the price has cleared it’s 8/21-EMA while the declining 50-EMA is the ‘next resistance’. MEDIUM TERM SWING VIEW.
JSE:NTC
by techpers
NTCAn extract from tomorrow's report. NETCARE LTD (NTC, 1597c) | WEEKLY CHART SUGGESTS LONG TERM BREAKOUT BUT SHORT TERM ‘APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT’ OPENS POTENTIAL COUNTERTREND SELL TRADE The 7-day RSI is a staple in my search for short term trading opportunities. Prints above the 80/85 level suggest the share is strong but approaching an overbought range. A possible scenario is that the share prints 1-2 more days on the upside followed by an exhaustion candle(dark cloud cover, long upper wick etc.). For NTC, the 1620-1635c range is prior resistance which may be tested with an overshoot. Upon a further push higher, the reward-to-risk could be appealing for a short/sell back to the 8/21-day EMA range.
JSE:NTC
by techpers