REM trade ideas
$JSEREM - Remgro Ltd: Head & Shoulders or?Watch the QuanTechMental analysis using this link youtu.be
Remgro is undergoing massive restructuring of its underlying investments so one needs to focus a lot on the fundamentals.
Restructuring does not always bring the value unlock investors look for and can end up being value destruction.
The charts show that since bottoming at R82,93 and rallying to a peak at R154,85 the share has been moving generally sideways.
Though it is premature show say that a head and shoulders pattern has formed, it is worthwhile to take it into consideration as a possibility.
As a result, i am cautious on Remgro both from a fundamental and technical standpoint.
Long Pivot: REMWithin my research, among the new segments I've been adding, is a slide called LONG PIVOTS:
It's geared to toward those with a short term view (intraday day and ultra short term traders), potentially looking for quick price appreciation.
Key Trading Levels For Buy/Long Side Continuation
The highlighted levels may or may not trigger during the upcoming trading session.
Blue Line = Buy Trigger
Red Line = Temporary Failure
Required: Needs to hold trigger zone with strong bids.
TF = Intraday, Ultra Short Term
Remgro gap filled and heading downwardsThere has been a big gap in JSE:REM since June 2020. It has been slowly making its way up to fill it and finally closed the gap with the highs of earlier this month. The upward momentum has disappeared and it loks like we might be heading down for a bit. The momentum indicators are also showing the same thing
REM - Support at R104.50 needs to holdREM has shown support at R104.50 for the last month. It has earnings this coming Thursday and a trading statement has already been released last week. If it manages to hold this level there could be a potential long idea of support with a nice R:R trade. Target at swing highs of R110 with a tight stop loss below R104 (close).
REM - REMGRO - (3 : 1)Since the 7th of September Remgro has been making a series of higher lows off the support line in blue with price meeting the upward resistance lines in pink around the R101.30 - R104.60 area.
On a fundamental basis, the last set of financial results published for the period ending 30th of June 2020 showed an intrinsic NAV of R154.47 per share which would imply that the current share price discount to NAV is in the region of 34.5% based on the NAV at 30 June 2020.
When reviewing the performance of Remgro's listed holdings since the 30th of June 2020:
- RMI (30.6% interest) up by 10.78% since 30 June 2020
- Firstrand (4% interest) up by 29.8% since 30 June 2020
- Mediclinic (44.6% interest) up by 5.52% since 30 June 2020
- RCL Foods (77.1% interest) down by 6.81% since 30 June 2020 (The only listed holding to decrease in value since June with the company taking the opportunity to acquire more shares and increase the % stake in RCL Foods)
- Distell (31.8% interest) up by 22.79% since 30 June 2020
- Grindrod (23.3% interest) up by 57% since 30 June 2020
- Grindrod Shipping (22.8% interest) up by 58.19% since 30 June 2020
Historically the share price discount to NAV has been as follows:
30 June 2020 - 35.3%
30 June 2019 - 19.4%
30 June 2018 - 20.5%
30 June 2017 - 15.1%
30 June 2016 - 16.9%
30 June 2015 - 11.4%
There GOES...REMGRO!Remgro remains one of my favourite “SA Inc” type of company by a country mile. Even after a 16% run over the past week, still leaves the company trading at a current discount to its intrinsic value of over 40% (compared to an average 10-year discount of 15.6%). We therefore firmly believe in the longer-term opportunity REM offers, even at current prices. Also, read our recent report on the company: oldoak.co.za
Technically, the resistance level of R96.50 which REM struggled to convincingly break, since July this year, has now been broken, with a run to its 200-day Moving Average (EMA) at R115.75, now becoming highly likely. REM’s 14-day RSI however is getting awfully close to EXTREME OVERBOUGHT levels, which might not make this a “straight line to glory” yet. We could therefore see some profit-taking soon, which could see me reload on some more.
REMGRO - possible upward move to fill gap if it breaks outJSE:REM has been trading in a consolidation since July. It is currently around the top of the consolidation area and is showing some signs of upward momentum. If it breaks out through the top, we could see a bit of an upward move - possibly even going up high enough to fill the gap from the 3rd of June. I am waiting for a confirmation of an upward breakout before considering entering.
Swing setup for $JSEREMI'm a big fan of this set up. The lack of effort leading up to the breakout and 3 thin real bodies showing not much supply coming to this market. A retest of breakout on the 2nd day has given a chance to enter if the breakout was missed.
Potential target could be 11846. We also note the large unfilled gap.
Stop - 8864 or a tighter one just below the breakout candle.