Sanlam Sanlam | From a long term portfolio perspective, the share price of Sanlam appears lacklustre while also being motivated by a few technical indicators. A review of the monthly chart sees the price trading at the same level it did 6 years ago, for the most part being supported by it’s 50-month moving average (MA). This MA has been tested on numerous occasions throughout the period, having held on each occasion which brings to mind the phrase ‘persistance breaks resistance’ meaning that the more times the price tested the MA the greater the likelihood that the price breaches this level and proceeds to slip below it. It should also be noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the share current trades in a bearish regime with a print below the 50 level while the MACD (Line and Signal), which has been above the centre line since July 2009, is now nearing the centre line with potential to cross below zero. These factors, along with a potential breakdown of an 18-month trend line support, suggest that long term holders of the share may want to consider reducing positions on the back of moderate technical warning signs.
SLM trade ideas
Pair Trade Setup : Short Sanlam vs. Long Standard BankSanlam has outperformed Standard bank by a margin of 27% from the lows we saw in May of this year. The chart of their relative ratios ( SLM / SBK ) has now approached an important area of resistance (0.46 to 0.477) which has been in place for the last two years. If you take a look at the individual charts of the underlying counters, one will notice that Sanlam has once again turned off important resistance levels between R82 and R85 while Standard Bank is not trading too far away from its 200 week moving average which has provided important support for the stock over the last two years. In Addition, the Standard Bank daily chart is trading in a triangle with support some R2 away from current levels. This would support my view on the pair trade as i believe that Sanlam will under-perform Standard Bank going forward, or at least, there is sufficient reason to believe that Standard bank has a better chance of climbing higher than Sanlam at this point in time. In Addition, the MACD indicator has made a lower high even though price made a slightly higher swing high which further reinforces my view that price action is weak and should see the pair ratio revert lower.
SLM -> PE ratio: 22.2x DY : 3.85%
SBK -> PE ratio 9.8x DY: 5.69%
From a fundamental perspective, Standard Bank's Price to Earnings Ratio is not demanding whilst also boasting a much better Dividend yield.
Suggested ratio entry point : 0.463 - 0.475
Suggested ratio stop loss: closed above 0.480
Suggested ratio exit point: 0.427 to 0.433
To be entered at a ratio of 1:1. i.e 100k nominal short position in Sanlam vs. 100k nominal long Position in Standard Bank.
Assuming we entered this pair at 0.465 today, used a stop loss at 0.480 and locked in profits @ 0.43, we are risking a move of 3.2% against us to make a potential profit of 7.5% for a risk reward ratio of just over 2.3x
SanlamEconomic Times has reported that Sanlam is negotiating to buy an additional stake in Shriram Capital. Sanlam already owns 26% of Shriram and it represents something around 10% of their valuation. The sale coincides with an exit from TPG Capital, a 10% Shriram shareholder. According to the Economic Times, the deal is valued between R2.8bn and R3bn. Softer ZAR is driving this trade short, and with a moody's outlook possibly falling to negative we could expect price to fall in a range between R77 and R74 in the short term.
Is Sanlam JSESLM Readying to Push to R85?$JSESLM Sanlam Limited has been testing the 81-82 level for close to one year with limited success of breaking through. So far it is holding up well above the R80 mark. Will see how this plays out but there is strong resistance on the R81 level. Watching it for now.
I'm giving Sanlam a wedgyAnother very simple set-up here... SLM making lower highs to form a flat bottomed wedge. I'm looking to short the top and I expect the price to make its way back towards the base. I don't think it will go all the way there so I'll be looking for somewhere near R73.00. The price is looking a little over-extended on the Stochastic RSI so If it breaks back above R79.00 I will pull the trigger (orders are in at 79.30). The stop loss is also easy to figure out...a break out of the wedge will be the signal to exit. I would say around R82.00 www.unum.co.za
SLM - lining up for a bullish price action?Improving bullish trend according to our proprietary technical scoring methodology.
Broke above its 21-day simple moving average - first bullish break in the last 22 days.
MACD bullish crossover (middle panel) - first bullish break in the last 38 days.
ADX (lower panel) - giving an indication that the recent strong bearish trend might be ending.
An early indication from the OBV (on-balance volume) that money is returning to the share. This might support a bullish bias.
Only regarded as a temporary correction. Adjust risk accordingly.
Time to exit: +/- 6 September 2019
SANLAM - Potential DownsideLooking at Sanlam, we may derive the following from the weekly chart:
1. Price sold sharply, as at the current weekly candle.
2. Price generally sells off at the 80-82 zone.
3. It is appearing more and more likely that price will continue lower.
4. Pay attention to the blue trend line.
5. As always - maintain your risk management.
Let's see what happens.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.