Back that Culo UP!Its hit support. Time for the reversal. Dont be scared. Join the party. Its not a diddy party, just a cool party.
SOL trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol (SOL) is an international chemicals and energy company, historically rooted in South Africa's oil-from-coal technology, and about 50% of its profits are linked to oil prices. Sasol has two major growth areas: its 50% stake in the Lake Charles Chemical Project (LCCP) in Louisiana, USA, and its expanding gas exploration efforts in Mozambique. Recently, Sasol was awarded two new gas exploration licenses in Mozambique, covering approximately 3,000 square kilometers, which could bolster its existing projects in the Rovuma province.
A major concern for Sasol is its environmental footprint, as it is the largest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and one of the top 100 fossil fuel companies worldwide, responsible for over 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Sasol is under increasing international pressure to reduce its carbon emissions, as its operations, especially in South Africa, heavily depend on coal.
Sasol's share price experienced a significant recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic but has since been affected by declining commodity prices, particularly oil. On 7th April 2024, the South African Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, upheld Sasol's appeal against a ruling by the national air quality officer that could have jeopardized the continued operation of its Secunda oil-from-coal plant. This plant, along with the company's other coal operations, delivers 10 million tonnes of thermal coal feedstock annually to its Secunda and Sasolburg facilities, as well as for export.
In its results for the year ending 30th June 2024, Sasol reported a 66% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and a 16% decline in net asset value (NAV). The financial results were significantly impacted by large impairments, including a R58.9 billion impairment on the Chemicals America Ethane value chain, a R5.3 billion impairment on Chemicals Africa, and a R7.8 billion impairment related to Secunda. While Sasol benefited from a weaker rand and a favorable rand oil price, its margins were constrained, leading to negative impacts on its fuels and chemicals businesses. Additionally, operational challenges across its portfolio further contributed to the disappointing financial performance.
In a production and sales update for the quarter ending 30th September 2024, Sasol reported that international chemical sales were negatively affected by the East Cracker in the US remaining offline. Mining saleable production was down 1% in the quarter and 4% compared to the previous year.
Sasol remains a volatile commodity stock in a long-term downward trend, and potential investors are advised to wait for a clear break above this trendline before considering any investments.
On 16th September 2024, Sasol announced the appointment of Ms. Muriel Dube as Chairman of the board, effective immediately. More recently, on 22nd October 2024, Business Day reported that a study by Wits Business School found that the future of Sasol's Secunda plant, which produces 84% of Sasol’s scope 1 and 2 emissions, rests in the hands of the government. The study concluded that the plant is unlikely to be modified to meet emissions regulations and may face closure. This adds significant uncertainty to the company’s future, especially given the growing regulatory and environmental challenges.
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol (SOL) is a large international chemicals and energy company that originated from the oil-from-coal technology developed in South Africa during the apartheid era. Around 50% of Sasol's profits are tied directly to the oil price, and the company has two key growth areas: its 50% stake in the Lake Charles Chemical Project (LCCP) in Louisiana, USA, and the development of gas resources in Mozambique. Sasol was recently awarded two new gas exploration licenses in Mozambique, covering approximately 3,000 square kilometers, which could significantly enhance its gas projects in the Rovuma province.
One major concern for Sasol is its significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, being South Africa’s largest producer and listed among the top 100 global fossil-fuel companies responsible for over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. The company faces international pressure to reduce its carbon footprint and address its environmental impact.
Sasol experienced a dramatic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic but has since been affected by the decline in commodity prices, particularly oil. On 7th April 2024, the South African Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, upheld Sasol's appeal against a ruling by the national air quality officer that could have threatened operations at its Secunda oil-from-coal plant. Secunda is a key facility for Sasol, with six coal mines delivering 10 million tonnes of thermal coal feedstock to both Secunda and Sasolburg for their operations and for export.
In its results for the year ending 30th June 2024, Sasol reported a 66% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and a 16% decline in net asset value (NAV). These declines were driven by a significant R58.9 billion impairment of the Chemicals America Ethane value chain, a R5.3 billion impairment in Chemicals Africa, and a R7.8 billion impairment related to Secunda. Despite benefiting from a weaker rand against the US dollar and a favorable rand oil price, constrained margins and various operational challenges negatively affected Sasol’s fuels and chemicals businesses.
Sasol’s share price remains volatile due to its exposure to commodity prices, particularly oil, and it is currently in a long-term downward trend. Investors are advised to wait for the share to break through its downward trendline before considering further action.
On 16th September 2024, Sasol announced the appointment of Ms. Muriel Dube as Chairman of the Board with immediate effect. On 22nd October 2024, *Business Day* reported on a new study by academics at Wits Business School, revealing that Sasol’s massive Secunda plant, which accounts for 84% of the company’s scope 1 and 2 emissions, may not be modifiable to comply with emissions regulations. This means that its future could now depend on government intervention, with the possibility of closure looming if compliance cannot be achieved.
SOL.JSE Sasol Prints a Reverse Cup & Handle?Sasol Prints a Reverse Cup & Handle Pattern which could be Bullish.
The Price pattern might retrace to form an Inverse Head and Shoulders.
This Ticker is under extreme Duress due to many factors as we all know, so needs to be Traded and not held IMO.
Use a tight Stop-loss if in.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol (SOL) is a massive international chemicals and energy company which has its roots in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era in South Africa. About 50% of the company's profits are directly linked to the oil price. It has two main growth areas - its 50% stake in an ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, America, known as "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its development of gas resources in Mozambique.
Sasol was awarded two new licences in Mozambique to explore for gas in an onshore development of approximately three thousand square kilometres. This could significantly add to its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province. One area of concern for Sasol is that it is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE. It is listed as one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies world-wide that contribute to more than 70% of Greenhouse gases. The company remains under international pressure to deal with its carbon emissions effectively.
After the impact of COVID-19, the share made a dramatic recovery which was brought to an end by the decline in commodity prices, especially oil. On 7th April 2024, the company announced that the Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, had upheld its appeal against a decision by the national air quality officer that might have put the continued activity at its Secunda oil-form-coal plant at risk.
Sasol operates six coal mines which deliver 10m tonnes of thermal coal feedstock to its operations at Secunda and Sasolburg and for the export market. In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported a headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 66% and a 16% drop in its net asset value (NAV). This was mainly due to the R58,9bn impairment of the Chemicals America Ethane value chain, a R5,3bn impairment of Chemicals Africa, and a R7,8bn impairment of Secunda.
The company said, "The business benefitted from a weaker R/US$ average exchange rate, and a favourable rand oil price, however constrained margins impacted negatively on our fuels and chemicals businesses. The financial results were further impacted by various operational challenges across the business." Sasol remains a volatile commodity share in a long-term downward trend. We suggest waiting until it breaks up through its downward trendline before investigating further.
On 16th September 2024, the company announced the appointment of Ms. Muriel Dube as Chairman of the board with immediate effect.
$JSESOL - Sasol: 11036 cps Still Holds The KeySee link below for previous analysis.
There is a case to be made that the bounce from 11036 cps is a five wave impulse.
The correction looks like a flat pattern which must hold above 11036 to keep the bullish outlook valid.
A break above 15000 cps without first breaking below 11036 cps will add to my conviction that Sasol bulls are back.
Bullish with a stop-loss @ 11036.
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol (SOL) is a massive international chemicals and energy company with roots in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era in South Africa. About 50% of the company's profits are directly linked to the oil price. It has two main growth areas: its 50% stake in an ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, America, known as the "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its development of gas resources in Mozambique. Sasol was awarded two new licenses in Mozambique to explore for gas in an onshore development of approximately three thousand square kilometers, which could significantly add to its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province.
One area of concern for Sasol is that it is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE. It is listed as one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies worldwide that contribute to more than 70% of greenhouse gases. The company remains under international pressure to address its carbon emissions effectively. After the impact of COVID-19, the share made a dramatic recovery, which was brought to an end by the decline in commodity prices, especially oil.
On 7th April 2024, the company announced that the Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, had upheld its appeal against a decision by the national air quality officer that might have put the continued activity at its Secunda oil-from-coal plant at risk. Sasol operates six coal mines, which deliver 10 million tonnes of thermal coal feedstock to its operations at Secunda and Sasolburg, as well as for the export market.
In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported a headline earnings per share (HEPS) decline of 66% and a 16% drop in its net asset value (NAV). This was mainly due to the R58,9 billion impairment of the Chemicals America Ethane value chain, a R5,3 billion impairment of Chemicals Africa, and a R7,8 billion impairment of Secunda. The company stated, "The business benefitted from a weaker R/US$ average exchange rate and a favorable rand oil price; however, constrained margins impacted negatively on our fuels and chemicals businesses. The financial results were further impacted by various operational challenges across the business."
Sasol remains a volatile commodity share in a long-term downward trend. We suggest waiting until it breaks up through its downward trendline before investigating further.
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol (SOL) is a large international chemicals and energy company with origins in the oil-from-coal technology developed during apartheid in South Africa. Approximately 50% of the company's profits are directly tied to the price of oil. Sasol has two primary growth areas: its 50% stake in the Lake Charles Chemical Project (LCCP) in Louisiana, USA, and the development of gas resources in Mozambique. The company was awarded two new licenses in Mozambique to explore gas in an onshore area of about 3,000 square kilometers, potentially enhancing its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province.
One significant concern for Sasol is its status as the largest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE, making it one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies worldwide that contribute to over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions. The company faces international pressure to address its carbon emissions effectively.
After the impact of COVID-19, Sasol's share price saw a dramatic recovery, which was later halted by a decline in commodity prices, particularly oil. On 7th April 2024, the company announced that the Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, upheld its appeal against a decision by the national air quality officer, which could have jeopardized the continued operation of its Secunda oil-from-coal plant.
Sasol operates six coal mines that supply 10 million tonnes of thermal coal feedstock to its operations in Secunda and Sasolburg and for export. In a production report for the end of June 2024, the company stated, "Overall, operational performance across all segments consistently met market guidance, notwithstanding persistent macroeconomic volatility impacting on profitability. The Energy Business achieved operational improvements in Mining, Gas, and Secunda Operations (SO) in Q4 FY24. Despite these improvements and a strong rand oil price, we continue to see the impact of lower diesel differentials and inflationary pressure on our liquid fuels segment."
In a trading statement for the year ending 30th June 2024, Sasol estimated that headline earnings per share (HEPS) would decrease by between 59% and 77%, with core HEPS down by between 9% and 27%. The company attributed these results to challenging market conditions, including depressed chemicals prices and constrained margins.
Sasol remains a volatile commodity share in a long-term downward trend. It is advisable to wait until it breaks up through its downward trendline before considering further investigation.
$SOL Sasol. Double bottomHad Sasol bottomed out ?
Double bottom followed by higher highs and lower lows.
Maybe worth a punt.
Will SASOL's market price make a Market Structure Shift?Support and Resistance Levels:
All-Time Low: At 2,110c
Highlighted Support Zones:
Around 12,000c — 13,000c (Green shaded zone) — This has been tested multiple times, indicating a strong support level.
Around 10,900c(Recent support zone marked as LL) — Recently established support zone.
Highlighted Resistance Zones:
Around 15,700c — 16,000c (Red shaded zone near recent highs) — This has been tested, indicating a strong resistance level.
Recent peak and major level at around 43,600c
Descending Trend Line: Connecting lower highs (LH) from mid-2021 onwards.
Potential Reversal: Indicated by the recent break of the descending trend line.
Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL):
Lower Highs (LH): Indicate a bearish trend in the long term, showing that the price is making lower highs over time.
Lower Lows (LL): Indicate continued bearish sentiment as lows are lower than previous lows, supporting the trendline.
Current Price Action:
Current Price: Around 14,900c, showing a significant positive movement (+1,255c or +9.20%).
Price Consolidation: The price is consolidating between the support level of 12,000c and the resistance level of 16,000c.
Trend Reversal: The recent break above the descending trend line suggests a potential reversal in the long-term bearish trend.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
Break Above Resistance: If the price breaks above the resistance zone around 16,000c and sustains above it, it could aim for the next resistance level near the 24,600c mark.
Continued Lower Highs and Lower Lows: The price making higher highs and higher lows would confirm the bullish trend reversal.
Bearish Scenario:
Failing to Hold Support: If the price fails to hold the current support around 12,000c and breaks below it, it might test lower support levels around 11,000c or even lower.
Resumption of Downtrend: A break below the recent support could signal a continuation of the bearish trend or a more extended correction phase.
Sideways Movement:
Price Consolidation: The price might continue to consolidate between 12,000c and 16,000c, forming a range-bound movement until a clear breakout direction is established.
Sasol short about to get stopped out - Ready for a swing longTrades don't always work out.
The trick is to prepare for not only the stop loss to be hit but also the counter action immediately afterwards at times.
So in this case, the false break below lead to a rounding bottom and following another higher rounding bottom
If it breaks above, we will be stopped but the next trade will be imminent for a long position.
This is how we do it as active or hyper traders :)
R207.16 - New target upside
The trend is a-changing?Interesting perspective here on Sasol.
We use a weekly chart and show how that downward sloping trendline has changed from resistance to support.
Could this finally be the changing the tide?
$JSESOL - Sasol: I Count Five Waves Down; 11036 cps Key LevelSee link below for previous analysis.
Fives waves can be counted from 32381 to 11036 cps for wave of the zigzag.
The bounce from 11036 has not yet unfolded in five waves to give me strong conviction but it was preceded by MACD/price bullish convergence; I am neutral to bullish at this early stage.
11036 is the key invalidation level.
Sasol EnergyReason for execution
1)PML & PWL LIQUIDATED
2)+BOS & ChoCH
3)0.236 Fibonacci Retracement
4) positive OF
5)1.618 Fib Expansion
SOL: second move unfolding?A price action above 13700 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 13700.
The target price is set at 15100.
The stop-loss price is set at 12700.
Remains a risky trade.
$JSESOL - Sasol: 13226 Gives Way, What Now?See link below for previous analysis.
Sasol did not take long to confirm that the down move was not complete.
The bounce from 13226 to 17380 is for wave (iv); the current sell-off is for wave (v) of .
The earliest indication that wave (v) is done will be a break above 17380.
It's a bit late to be bearish and at this mature stage of the trend, I am more interested in buying opportunities.
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol, a prominent international chemicals and energy company based in South Africa, has its origins in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era. The company is significantly influenced by fluctuations in the oil market, with about 50% of its profits directly linked to oil prices. Sasol's major growth initiatives include its 50% stake in the ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, USA, known as the "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its expanding gas operations in Mozambique, where it has been granted licenses to explore an extensive area of about three thousand square kilometers.
Sasol is also noted for its substantial environmental footprint, being the largest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and one of the top 100 fossil-fuel companies contributing to global emissions. This position places Sasol under continual international pressure to effectively manage and reduce its carbon emissions.
The impact of COVID-19 initially led to a significant recovery in Sasol's share price, driven by rising oil prices. However, this recovery has been undermined by recent declines in commodity prices, particularly oil, which have adversely affected the company's financial performance. For the six months ending on 31st December 2023, Sasol reported a decrease in revenue from R149.8 billion to R136.3 billion, primarily due to lower chemical prices and weaker oil prices. The company experienced a 34% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and a 2% decrease in net asset value (NAV).
Sasol's operations continue to be impacted by the volatile macroeconomic environment, characterized by fluctuating petrochemical prices and unstable product demand. Additional challenges include inflationary pressures and the underperformance of state-owned enterprises critical to Sasol's supply chain. Despite these challenges, Sasol has made some operational improvements in South Africa and has recently been successful in an appeal against environmental regulatory decisions that threatened its Secunda plant operations.
The company has also begun to diversify its energy sources, securing 550 megawatts of renewable energy, which aligns with its goals to reduce carbon emissions. However, production issues, particularly at the Secunda plant, led to a 9% drop in production in the quarter ending March 2024, prompting Sasol to revise its full-year production guidance for 2024 to between 6.9 and 7.1 million tons.
These developments have resulted in a sharp decline in Sasol's share price, which continues to trade well below its long-term downward trendline, reflecting the stock's high volatility and the broader uncertainties in the global commodity markets.
For investors, Sasol presents a complex case. While the company holds significant potential due to its strategic initiatives in the energy sector and its efforts to transition towards more sustainable operations, it remains highly susceptible to external economic and environmental factors. Potential investors should carefully consider the inherent risks associated with Sasol's dependency on global commodity prices and its ongoing challenges in operational and environmental compliance before making investment decisions.
SOL.JSE Sasol Trend Cloud & Fibonacci Study.Sasol has shown a decent recovery from the last selloff.
Also winning the recent Emissions court case seems to have Boosted the Stock Price.
The Chart is self Explanatory.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Unfortunately the Trend Cloud Indicator is not Free. Should you wish to Purchase this, message me and I will put you in contact with the Author.
Regards Graham.
PV=FV/(1+r)^t Present Value = Future Value / (1 + R Rate of Return ) ^ Time.
Our opinion on the current state of SOLSasol, a behemoth in the international chemicals and energy sector, traces its origins to the oil-from-coal technology developed during South Africa's apartheid era. With approximately 50% of its profits tied directly to oil prices, Sasol's performance is closely linked to the volatile energy market. The company has strategically positioned itself for growth through two primary initiatives: its 50% investment in the ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, known as the "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and the expansion of its gas projects in Mozambique. The awarding of two new licenses for gas exploration in an onshore area of about three thousand square kilometers in Mozambique highlights its potential to significantly boost its existing operations in the Rovuma province.
However, Sasol faces significant environmental scrutiny. It is the largest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and is listed among the top 100 fossil-fuel companies globally contributing to over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions. This has placed Sasol under considerable international pressure to effectively manage its carbon footprint.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to a dramatic recovery in Sasol's share price, but the resurgence was short-lived due to declining commodity prices, particularly oil. For the six months ending on 31st December 2023, Sasol reported a decrease in revenue to R136.3bn from R149.8bn in the previous period, attributing the downturn to lower chemical prices and weak oil prices. The company's headline earnings per share (HEPS) and net asset value (NAV) also saw declines of 34% and 2%, respectively.
Sasol's first half of 2024 continued to be marred by a challenging macroeconomic environment, characterized by weaker oil and petrochemical prices, fluctuating product demand, and rising inflation. Operational improvements in South Africa were overshadowed by the persistent underperformance of state-owned enterprises involved in Sasol's value chain, compounded by a weaker global growth outlook, adversely affecting business performance.
On a positive note, on 7th April 2024, Sasol announced that the Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, had upheld its appeal against a decision by the national air quality officer, a ruling that could have jeopardized the operation of its Secunda oil-from-coal plant. This decision comes as a relief for Sasol's operations, albeit temporarily alleviating some regulatory pressures.
Sasol's stock initially benefited from a spike in Brent oil prices to around $127 per barrel, although prices have since receded to about $90, reflecting the inherent volatility and risk associated with commodity shares. In its pursuit of environmental stewardship, Sasol has made a notable stride by securing 550mw of renewable energy, marking progress toward achieving its carbon emission reduction goals. This move signifies Sasol's commitment to transitioning towards more sustainable energy sources amidst the evolving energy landscape and regulatory pressures.
Sasol showing upside to come with two patterns target R228.61There are two potential rising formations to come for Sasol.
Either Rev Cup and Handle or Inv Head and shoulders
We do need the confirmation though for upside to continue to come.
Moving averages yield a Medium Probability setup with
Price>20
Price<200
Oil is also confiriming a short to medium term rally which will help push up the price
Target R228.61
$JSESOL - Sasol: Bear Trend Still Intact, How Much Lower?See link below for previous analysis.
Sasol has continued its strong selloff, going well below the support zone of my previous analysis.
Price action is giving better Elliott Wave context.
I am looking at the bear market from 43860 as a zigzag with the bounce from 13226 for wave (iv) of .
The zigzag is well contained in a falling channel and a clear break out off this channel will give conviction that the bear is over.
I will maintain a bearish stance until we get five waves down for wave and/or a break out off the channel.
Sasol Ready to Reverse TrendWe have previously detailed the short position on Sasol (see linked idea), now we analyze the bullish case, Sasol price has diverged from Brent, brent is seeking a daily cycle high while Sasol is seeking a cycle low. Here we see a Hammer candle forming at the point of the 0.50 retracement of downtrend. This area is also a support level set by price as it moved out of COVID low while RSI is showing a double bottom. Indications are that price will move upwards, it is in pursuit of a yearly low. The brent chart shows price bouncing on 200 week moving average support that forms a falling wedge with the resistance. If this move plays out Sasol bulls will be happy to accumulate at current level, the implication for inflation due to sharp rising oil will be something to watch.
* Risk accepting investors can buy based on reversal Hammer candle.
* Risk averse investors are best to wait for full confirmation that the cycle has turned when price closes above the blue trendline as well as the 10 week moving average (also blue).
