AG Capital -Storm trading Morning Call 10 January 2022We give a quick recap of markets overnight and the previous day and insights into the day ahead with a few trade ideas on the day. Ideas are strictly NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
SSW trade ideas
Market Neutral Idea: Long SSW/Short IMPFor anyone that trades pairs, this is possibly worth a look...3-month performance gap has widened, among other factors.
A pairs trade strategy is based on the historical correlation of two securities. When pairs from the trade eventually deviate—as long as an investor is using a pairs trade strategy—they would seek to take a dollar matched the long position in the underperforming security and sell short the outperforming security.
Levels:
Entry: 0.2250
Stop: 0.1950
Target: 0.2600
For more real-time insights and trade ideas, get in touch today.
SSWSSW came into the box and its going
@Miwealth, we make use of a wide arrange of strategies tools and reports to predict market movement, we are in nature attempting to trade the impulsive moves or larger correction in price, we therefore make use of fundamental analysis mainly using COT report analysis and overall market conditions such as market structure and Wave analysis. We use Wyatt's pivots on MT4/5 to find market support and resistance zones that's calculated on a yearly, monthly, weekly and daily basis. Overall, our strategy also combines price action.
We are not sniper traders, and we trade weekly and monthly swing traders.
We don't provide signals but provide a journey to getting funded to make consistent long term returns that are in excess of 3-5% pm.
The above analysis incorporates all our trading experience and therefore we only provide entry SL and TP levels.
MiWealth in terms of South African law is not a registered financial service company, and thus we do not provide financial advice, all ideas shared on trading view is our view and not necessarily in line with yours therefore you carry your own risk on your trading decisions
Enhanced Magic Formula for fundamental analysisThis is an experimental procedure based on fundamentals. Since, there isn't much option to backtest these methodologies, I am trying to create a trade and then measure performance over long period of time.
Magic Formula investing method is invented by Joel Greenblatt . In a nutshell strategy does following:
Rank all the stocks based on Return on Capital
Rank all the stocks based on Earning Yield
Add these ranks to come up with a combined rank.
Invest equally in first 10 stoscks of combined. Rebalance yearly.
Concept here is, earnings yield represents value whereas return on capital represents quality. Combining these two to get the stocks which have best of both.
More information on the methodology is present here: www.investopedia.com
Improved Method :
Since, tradingview does not allow comparing fundamentals or technicals of all stocks, I had to do this in python. Output report can be found here: docs.google.com
Basic Filtering of Stocks:
Basic filtering of stocks is done based on the methods as mentioned in quality screen indicator:
Since the financial data is taken from yahoo for generating report, some of the quality parameters are not included and there can be slight changes in the fundamental values present in tradingview. No other initial filtering is applied.
Derive ranks on several Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow parameters:
Value Parameters : P/E, P/S, P/B, P/C, P/FCF, PE-Forwarding, PEG Ratio
Profitability Parameters : ROA, ROE, ROI, GrossMargin, OperatingMargin, ProfitMargin
Growth and Momentum Parameters : Quarterly, Half Yearly and Yearly Performance, Upside Calculated from analyst valuation
Cashflow Parameters : Quick Ratio, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity, Long term Debt to Equity, Debt to Assets, Long term debt to assets.
Derive composite rank for Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow based on individual ranks:
For example, Add up all ranks of value parameter to come up with Value Score. And then sort value score in ascending order to get value rank
Derive combination ranks such as value/growth rank, value/profitability rank etc by similar method: Also create combined rank which considers all 4 ranks - value, profitability, growth and cashflow.
Sort the values based on combined rank to get top value/quality stocks - which represents lowest score.
Final stock selection consideration : Instead of picking first 10 stocks, I have picked stocks from different sectors thus sacrificing bit of Magic Formula edge. This is to avoid high concentration on single sector.
Final list of stocks selected:
SBSW - Basic Materials (Gold)
VALE - Basic Materials (Industrial Metals and Mining)
GOOG - Communication Services (Internet and Information)
CROX - Consumer Cyclical (Footwear and Accessories)
ENVA - Financial (Credit Services)
EVR - Financial (Capital Markets)
UTHR - Healthcare (Biotechnology)
LPX - Industrial (Building Products and Equipment)
TER - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
AMAT - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
Sibanye Stillwater - Monthly ChartSibanye Stillwater (SSW, 5242c): On the monthly chart, clearing downward trend line A_B is key to a continuing it's multi-year
bull trend. #LongTermCharts
This is not a trading or investment recommendation but rather my updated view of the monthly (long term chart).
This chart is an extract from my report: Active Trading Plan - Initial Thoughts and Ideas For The Week Commencing 22 November 2021.
To gain access to the full report, get in touch today.
SBSW: Follow up on cup with handle. Precious metals. I last posted on this stock in July. (link below if interested). It continues to look like a cup with handle to me. There was a recent break out above the short term down trend channel and the stock price then returned to the channel. I think it may continue short term to close the gap (2 hour chart) or may start up again now. Note the level "2" is at the up channel mid line which sometimes acts as a support and is a 50% retraction of "1". This currently has an 11% dividend rate. Watch to see if it arises out of the current down channel and goes above the current near term high, If it does I am looking for a longer term target of 37-48. Additional support for this idea would be a close above the "1" level.
As always process your way. Make your own decision.
Have a great weekend.
Sibanye StillwaterStill struggling. Price need to break that confluence of resistance around 56 to expose higher prices.
SIBANYE BUY SETUP FORMATION We can patiently wait for a breakout of the trend line before making more buy entries. If rejection is observed on the trend line we could have a pull back to the nearest support.
AG Capital -Storm trading Morning Call 20 October 2021We give a quick recap of markets overnight and the previous day and insights into the day ahead with a few trade ideas on the day. Ideas are strictly NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
$SSW bouncing off supportAn old channel support line serving as support for the current bounce. Will it hold ? 5800 top of the channel could be a target if it holds.
SSWSSW made a fake out of the descending channel buying came in at 460, now a pullback back to 512 region will provide nice opportunity to go long
@Miwealth, we make use of a wide arrange of strategies tools and reports to predict market movement, we are in nature attempting to trade the impulsive moves or larger correction in price, we therefore make use of fundamental analysis mainly using COT report analysis and overall market conditions such as market structure and Wave analysis. We use Wyatt's pivots on MT4/5 to find market support and resistance zones that's calculated on a yearly, monthly, weekly and daily basis. Overall, our strategy also combines price action.
We are not sniper traders, and we trade weekly and monthly swing traders.
We don't provide signals but provide a journey to getting funded to make consistent long term returns that are in excess of 3-5% pm.
The above analysis incorporates all our trading experience and therefore we only provide entry SL and TP levels.
MiWealth in terms of South African law is not a registered financial service company, and thus we do not provide financial advice, all ideas shared on trading view is our view and not necessarily in line with yours therefore you carry your own risk on your trading decisions
SSW Bullish reversal (LONG)On the SSW chart, I noted a Support at 4402 which may mark the end of the regression channel.
With reference to Platinum there is a long term trend forming with the latest bounce of the support.
P/E ratio at 2.93
Forward P/E ratio 3.78
RSI in the 50's
DMI showing some change to the upside
(Not financial advice)
Please comment with advice/expertise/constructive critisicm
SSW - 1D - FAITH IN THEIR OWN SHARESAlthough SSW is in a down trend, it is bouncing of a strong support, and at the least i expect a pullback on this down trend if not a reversal. Weekly and daily stochastics are oversold. SSW has also bought back R8 billion of their own shares showing confidence to my mind, and they are also diversifying to Lithium. They are also dirt cheap at a PE of about 3.
SSW BreakoutSSW finally looking ready to start recovering, a close today above 4700 and I'm long with a target of 5100.
AG Capital -Storm trading Morning Call 1 October 2021We give a quick recap of markets overnight and the previous day and insights into the day ahead with a few trade ideas on the day. Ideas are strictly NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
#JSESSW - Reversion to the mean (Long Idea)- Price is presenting a good entry for a relief rally on Sibanye Stillwater
- Chart looks to have broken the short-term downtrend and stochastics have turned up
SL and TP on the chart
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
SIBANYE STILL WATERalot has been happening on this company latley i think it has found a bit of value at the 42/45 rand level
AG Capital -Storm trading Morning Call 15 September 2021 We give a quick recap of markets overnight and the previous day and insights into the day ahead with a few trade ideas on the day. Ideas are strictly NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
AG Capital -Storm trading Morning Call 14 SeptemberWe give a quick recap of markets overnight and the previous day and insights into the day ahead with a few trade ideas on the day. Ideas are strictly NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
SIBANYE GIVING NEW ENTRY POINTSNew entry point at support level. Great time to top-up on Sibanye at 5576 area. This is probably the dip we've been anticipating.
Bullish on SSWConsolidation period in short term last 2 months due to Production decrease in Motor vehicle industry. Recovery of industry is a given in future.
Compared to Platinum price the Support is strong and holding.
Strong support at 5443, resistance at 7430
Falling wedge shows that the trend is moving to a point where a change in direction is inevitable.
Strong balance sheet, good dividends, no brainer.
SSWFundamentals
Sibanye is highly correlated to the USD, we expect a reversal in the USD to come soon, but the current trend is to the upside and could impact commodities more, So we expect more downside on ZAR, NZD, AUD, CAD.
US Holidays are over, and we should see some profit taking and big funds to starts positioning their portfolios for the new seasonality coming up. With rates moving higher in in the USD and some potential risks with Covid looming in emerging markets that would push gold higher, however Platinum is SSW biggest holding on resources.
A 40% increase in 4E Platinum group metals (PGM) Mineral Reserves at the SA PGM operations to 39.5M 4Eoz, primarily due to the inclusion of the Marikana K4 project (12.7 M 4Eoz) and the Klipfontein opencast project (0.1M 4Eoz) following detailed feasibility studies.
Platinum
Platinum futures traded below $1,000 per troy ounce, hovering at levels not seen since last November, amid a downbeat demand outlook, following output cut announcements by major players in the auto industry amid a global semiconductor shortage. Volkswagen stated its plant in Wolfsburg, the world’s largest, planned to restart production with only one shift, while its subsidiary Audi decided to extend the summer break by one week. Earlier, Toyota had already announced the suspension of operations at 14 of its Japanese factories in September. The metal used in catalytic converters had been already under pressure, due to a spike in COVID-19 cases across the globe and as US Fed officials talked of removing stimulus as soon as this year.
Platinum is expected to trade at 1030.27 USD/t oz. by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1197.07 in 12 months’ time.
Mining Production in South Africa is expected to be -3.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Mining Production in South Africa to stand at 2.50 in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, the South Africa Mining Production is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2022 and 3.00 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models.
Exports in South Africa is expected to be 155000.00 ZAR Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Exports is projected to trend around 140000.00 ZAR Million in 2022 and 130000.00 ZAR Million in 2023, according to our econometric models.
Technicals
the Stock price made a strong bullish impulse on the monthly from 1500, and profit taking occurred at 7650, on the monthly time frame we are now in a Bullish correction and should expect buyers to come back in between 3820-5200
Market Condition on the weekly is bearish on the MACD, So wont be putting looking for buys as yet
LONG TERM when Global economy and Supply bottle necks stops and Automotive vehicle production is at full tilt this could be a great buy as they expect demand to increase, at the moment it’s a HOLD/BUY
