Thungela ResourcesJSE:TGA closed above a key level today, I would like to see it stay above this level. Also, I want to see it trade above R130 for a more (peaceful) confirmation,
TGA trade ideas
TGA.JSE Thungela Trend Cloud & FIB Study.Since it's last Earning Report - Thungela has shown a remarkable recover of it's Share Price.
I've plotted the Fibonacci Levels to see where we could encounter possible Resistance.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
PV=FV/(1+r)^t Present Value = Future Value / (1 + R Rate of Return ) ^ Time.
Our opinion on the current state of THUNGELA(TGA)Thungela (TGA) is Anglo American's coal assets which have been unbundled into the hands of Anglo shareholders and separately listed on the JSE and the LSE because of Anglo's policy of moving away from carbon-based fossil fuels like coal. Anglo sold its last 8% of Thungela on 25th March 2022 for R1.67bn. Thungela is a major thermal coal exporter in South Africa. It has over 7,500 employees and exports coal to Asia, India, SEA, and East and North African countries. The company owns 50% of Phola, which operates a coal processing plant, and it has a 23.22% interest in the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT). The company has the capacity to produce over 90 million tons of coal per annum. The company operates 7 mines in South Africa, 4 open cast and 3 underground.
In its results for the year to 31st December 2023, the company reported a profit of R5bn, down from the previous year's profit of R18.2bn. Earnings per share (EPS) fell to 3766c, down from 12708c. The company paid out a dividend of R2.8bn and bought back R500m worth of its own shares. The company said, "Industry railed volume of 47.9Mtpa in 2023, deterioration of 5% from last year. Mutual cooperation agreement establishes framework for procurement of critical spares on behalf of TFR. Industry deployed additional security on coal line."
In a trading statement for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would be between 700c and 1000c compared with 2246c in the previous period. Coal prices were down about 18%, and the free-on-board (FOB) cost per tonne is expected to be at the lower end of the range between R1170 and R1290.
The share began trading on the JSE on 7th June 2021 and immediately fell to 2190c from 2600c. It was originally estimated to be worth a minimum of 4400c but reached a high of 37752c on 16th September 2022. Since then, it has been moving sideways and downwards with lower coal prices and problems with Transnet. Obviously, it is also subject to the volatility of being a single commodity share and dependent on Transnet to get its product to port. The company has committed to paying out at least 30% of "adjusted operating free cash flow" in the form of a dividend.
TGATGA
The accompanying reading is from my research model which provides an automated comment on a share for 3x time frames (ST, MT and LT).
Today, the short term rating states the following: "strong upside move but momentum slowing with sellers becoming active".
A few days ago I also noted that 140-143 was a level to reduce, i.e. the 200-day and the previous swing high.
Our opinion on the current state of TGAThungela (TGA) represents Anglo American's coal assets, which were unbundled into the hands of Anglo shareholders and separately listed on the JSE and the LSE due to Anglo's policy of transitioning away from carbon-based fossil fuels like coal. Anglo completed the sale of its final 8% stake in Thungela on 25th March 2022 for R1.67 billion. Thungela operates as a major thermal coal exporter in South Africa, boasting over 7,500 employees and exporting coal to various regions including Asia, India, SEA, and East and North African countries. The company holds a 50% stake in Phola, which operates a coal processing plant, and a 23.22% interest in the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT). With a capacity to produce over 90 million tons of coal per annum, Thungela operates 7 mines in South Africa, consisting of 4 open-cast and 3 underground mines.
In its results for the year ending 31st December 2023, the company reported a profit of R5 billion, down from the previous year's profit of R18.2 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell to 3766c from 12708c. Thungela paid out a dividend of R2.8 billion and repurchased R500 million worth of its own shares. The company highlighted, "Industry railed volume of 47.9Mtpa in 2023, deterioration of 5% from last year • Mutual cooperation agreement establishes framework for procurement of critical spares on behalf of TFR• Industry deployed additional security on coal line."
Initially trading on the JSE from 7th June 2021, Thungela's share price experienced an immediate decline to 2190c from 2600c. Initially estimated to be worth a minimum of 4400c, the share price reached a high of 37752c on 16th September 2022. However, since then, it has been moving sideways and downwards, influenced by lower coal prices and challenges with Transnet. The company is also subject to the inherent volatility associated with being a single commodity share and reliant on Transnet for transporting its product to port. Thungela has committed to paying out at least 30% of "adjusted operating free cash flow" in the form of a dividend.
Our opinion on the current state of TGAThungela Resources Ltd. (TGA), a spin-off from Anglo American's coal division, has positioned itself as a significant player in the thermal coal export market, with a strong focus on the Asian, Indian, Southeast Asian, and East and North African markets. The unbundling of Thungela from Anglo American reflects the latter's strategic shift away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels, aligning with global trends towards cleaner energy sources. Thungela's operational footprint includes seven mines in South Africa, encompassing both open-cast and underground operations, and it boasts substantial annual production capacity.
Despite its considerable production capabilities and strategic assets, including a significant stake in the Richards Bay Coal Terminal, Thungela faces a range of external challenges that impact its financial performance. The first half of 2023 saw the company grappling with a softer price environment and ongoing inefficiencies in rail logistics, which have historically hampered South African coal exporters' ability to reach international markets effectively.
The company's financial results for the first half of 2023 reflect these challenges, with a notable decline in headline earnings per share (HEPS). Furthermore, Thungela's trading statement for the year ending December 2023 anticipates a significant drop in HEPS, partially attributed to non-recurring, non-cash adjustments associated with its acquisition of the Ensham Business.
Since its listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in June 2021, Thungela's share price has experienced volatility, initially trading below expected valuations before reaching a peak in September 2022. However, the share has since encountered a downward trend, influenced by lower coal prices and logistical constraints with Transnet, which underscore the inherent risks of a single-commodity focus.
Investors considering Thungela Resources should weigh the company's dividend commitment against the backdrop of operational challenges and the broader shift away from thermal coal in the global energy mix. While Thungela offers significant production capacity and access to key export markets, its future performance will likely be shaped by global commodity prices, logistical efficiencies, and the pace of energy transition policies worldwide.
$JSETGA - Thungela: Follow The Coal Futures, More Downside AheadSee link below for previous analysis.
Wave (C) is proving to be more extended to the downside.
I have updated the wave count and moved wave 3 of (C) to the 12350 bottom followed by a flat pattern for wave 4.
Wave 5 is currently unfolding and looks impulsive so I am expecting further downside in the short-term.
Short the rallies is the strategy.
There is still a very strong correlation between Thungela and coal futures which are still trending downwards.
UPDATE: Thungela continues it's land slide since the H&S break Unfortunately, the price did break below the H&S and Thungela showed a ton of supply and selling coming in.
This means, the target is still set to R91.93. The support at R121.50 was the last hope for the share to hold and bounce.
But now it's clear that this resource miner is in trouble.
Now let's cover the fundamentals.
Coal Prices Affecting Profit:
Thungela's profit dropped significantly due to weak coal prices. In a recent half-year report, their profit fell by 69%.
Earnings Forecast to Decline:
Analysts predict Thungela's earnings will decrease by an average of 64.3% per year over the next three years.
Dividend Instability:
The company's track record with dividends isn't very stable, which can unsettle investors.
Stock Performance:
Over the past year, Thungela's stock price decreased by 44.73%. In the last three months, it dropped by 27.43%, and in the last month, it fell by 15.66%.
Price Volatility:
Thungela's stock has shown high volatility, with an average weekly movement of 5.5%, which is higher than the industry average.
UPDATE Thungela continues its downside to R88.70 with a new H&SLarge H&S formed since since May 2022. The price broke below the neckline and since then it's been on a one way trajectory.
That was until it reached R123.96 in May 2023... THe price since then has consolidated in a sideways manner and has formed yet another Head and Shoulders.
With the price breaking below its neckline, we are seeing further signs of downside to come.
And the target remains EXACTLY at R88.70.
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Company Background:
Thungela Resources Limited is a South African coal mining company.
Spin-Off from Anglo American:
Thungela was spun off from Anglo American Plc, a global mining company, in June 2021.
Thungela primarily focuses on coal mining operations.
The company's main products are related to coal production, including different grades of coal that are used for various purposes such as energy generation, industrial processes, and export.
Thungela IH&S Pattern Seen.Thungela seems to have printed an Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern, showing a potential +-20% upside if the Head formation plays out.
I trust this plays out for those Invested.
Use Stop Loss management with Alarm to your preferences.
Regards Graham.
Thungela Resources to continue its rally post dividends?The market seemingly factored in the Earnings data and with news of new business acquisitions and dividend declaration, price rallied to break resistance at R143.50, breaking also the descending triangle pattern's falling trendline and closing well above the 50 DAY EMA. Clearly the Bulls have decided to launch this rocket much earlier.
Considering the most recent price action, price is forecasted to trade and hold well above R143.50, heading to the R160 ~ R166.00 resistance zone. Factoring in the dividend payout period, price is set to give a reaction at this resistance level, which will also coincide with price approaching the 50 WEEK EMA.
"Bullish continuation"consolidation around this area will be a good signal to add onto long positions, whereas a STRONG bearish reaction could see price plummet to levels below R100 over the short term to fullfill the Technical Analysis 101 principle of 'price moving the length of the head in the opposite direction upon the downward break of the Head & Shoulders pattern' for an even better reversal.
JSE's Thungela Resources preparing to launch its rockets?JSETGA faced a beatdown since December 2022 after reaching the peak of its right shoulder to complete the Head & Shoulders price pattern. Considering the latest price action, we can see price hanging around bearishly around the support at R125.00
With Interim Earnings & Revenue data coming out on 21st August 2023, price is forecasted to break this support and retest the R94.00 ~ R102.50 levels, completing a mini falling wedge pattern as a reversal signal to bounce back to R200.00 to close the market gap, and eventually further up to R370.00 to close the other gap.
TGA 2hr long IdeaTGA based out nicely off R126.00 over the last 2 months and is now trading well above its 50ema
and it previous resistance level of R136.00
pullbacks to the 134/136 zone provides good Reward to risk ratios on the long side
UPDATE: Thungela still showing further downside to target R88.70Large H&S since May 2022 formed with the coal mining company.
It broke down in January and since then has been sliding on a gradual downtrend.
Other indicators confirmed downside to come including:
200 >21> 7 - Bearish (Red)
RSI <50 Red
The target still remains to be R88.70 and it looks like coal is still in very murky water.
Update: TGAThe share has reached more than 90% of the intended gain.
As always, traders could consider the following options:
(1) Raise their stop-loss to protect capital
(2) Scale out of the position as it approaches the target.
(3) Bank/Take Profit in full (and possibly get back in if it retraces).
For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
Original idea has also been attached.
TGA - 1D - BREAKOUTThungela has broken out of a downward trendline which started forming in September 2022. Prior to breakout it has formed a solid basis which suggests the bottom to me. Stochastic has still some way to go to overbought levels, and momentum is in bullish territory. I Will put a tight stop on it, as it could go south quickly.
TGAThis is a short term swing idea. The share carries higher-than-average risk profile hence a smaller percentage of a trader's portfolio might be allocated to the idea. The share is attempting to clear the downward trend line extending back to the 15 June swing high while on Tuesday, above-average volume was noted around horizontal support, possibly suggesting fresh buying interest. Do note that the share might retrace slightly after publication of this note, then continue to build it's base before a short term bullish reversal. Also note that the view may in contrast to technical structures reflected in the weekly and monthly time frames. Time stop: 18 August 2023 as earnings (event risk) are due on 21 August 2023.
THUNGELA - TimelineI put this chart to display all the ideas i have posted on this stock.
R118 - R150 is retrace zone of the larger pic ... if no support is found, a test of the initial break zone around R68 becomes a possibility #justsayin
ThungelaJSE:TGA back at the recent low level, not the absolute low. A break below the absolute low will send the stock towards R120/share, with a possibility of reaching R100/share.
Time will tell.
ThungelaJSE:TGA has been on a downtrend and breaking below potential support levels. The stock fell ex divi, and it's now hovering near an area of value. Without support at this level, the downward movement will continue. R120?
UPDATE: Thungela still showing strong downside to R88.70Large H&S cine May 2022
This is one of those medium investment trades, that you need to hold for a LONG period of time.
Luckily with CFDs, when you short stocks you gain interest, so it doesn't matter how long you hold.
The longer the better.
Any way, the price broke below
200 >21> 7 - Bearish (Red)
RSI <50 Red
Target remains at R88.70
Thungela Thungela Resources Limited shareholders are advised that JPMorgan Chase & Co. has notified the Company that accounts under its management have increased its holding in the Company such that JPMorgan Chase & Co. now holds 6.95% of the issued ordinary shares in the Company.
TGA a littler lower before going upTGA has had a brutal drop from its all time and people want to know where the bottom is.
I have the following to say
The trend is still going down, so expect a temporary relief before going further down.
I Expect it bottom out at the March 2022 low,
Now why do i have this as a long, I'm going to start dollar cost averaging into the stock, once its starts hitting my bottom targets I will start loading more
Money is leaving the asset, but could start to see a turnaround. The turn around will take some time.
