TKG trade ideas
TELKOM (TKG) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGIt is shocking to see a stock soaring in an economy plagued with state capture scandals, corruption, uncertainty and all things junk. Notwithstanding the fact that i love South Africa, it is sadly true that most stocks on the JSE stock exchange are in bear market territory. Hence the shock i had when i opened this chart.
I expect prices to move up as they continue the healthy uptrend. The exponential nature of this trend makes it difficult to ride it. It is like trying to jump onto a speeding bullet train. Anyway, i would consider the 8 200 level as a possible support area where buyers can enter into new positions. It is important to note that the price might possibly form a right shoulder to complete a tête et épaules (head and shoulders) pattern, causing the price to plummet towards the trendline. However, the long term bias is still long. I guess the bulls needed a break so to them!
Telkom showing signs that the top could be in for now.. $JSETKGTelkom has once again bumped up into its trend line resistance which has formed highs in the stock on two previous occasions. The stock has been a strong outperformer in its sector and one wonders whether it has not possibly run too hard in the context of a weak economic backdrop locally. What is interesting to note is that the top in 2015 formed in early April. The following top in 2017 happened just over 24 months later (2 years). 2 years on and we are busy possibly forming the next top. 3rd time lucky? Well.. the RSI indicator has formed bearish divergence on the weekly chart where the RSI has made a lower high, not confirmed by price which went higher. This is typically a warning of a correction to come in the stock. My first target will be the 23.6% fib retracement at R70.00. If the stock stays weak we could see the next fib targets of 66.00 and 61.50 come into play..
Telkom - Failing at Resistance With A Bearish Engulfing CandleFailing at Resistance With A Bearish Engulfing Candle: The second one in just over a week. Telecom shares under pressure.
Upward trend line yet to be broken however do we always wait for a break if fundamental evidence emerges and the technical start to show evidence of weakness? No.
This one appears to be under some selling pressure and may just tick a lower over the short term.
3 good reasons to short $JSETKG#Telkom might be running into some tough resistances after a long uptrend earlier this year.
- Retest of long term trend-line
- Bear flag forming
- Last but not least, .618 fib retracement level reached
All 3 these reasons are sitting at the same point.
Maybe a last effort or bull trap waiting, but I expect a drop
JSE:TKG Telkom Great Wykoff StudyIt is not a good time to buy Telkom but it makes a good study of the Wyckoff principles. The first thing to notice is the pattern: Markdown - Accumulation - Markup - Distribution - Markdown - Accumulation - Markup and now potentially forming a range again. The next notice the two ways that markups and markdowns en: 1) The first Markup and Markdown ended by an inability to move to the oversold or overbought trend line, 2) The second two had over throws of the lines. Both these setup resulted in a trading range forming. The next thing is to notice how the trading range forms. Only the main labels are added to have less clutter. Volume increases on the Preliminary Supply (PSY) or Support (PS) and it is possible to even be the highest volume for the range as is the case in the Distribution Range. Next a Selling (SC) or Buying (BC) Climax is formed on volume stopping the trend (Phase A). After a Aromatic Rally (AR) or Automatic Reaction (AR) (Still Phase A) a period of low volume in the TR forms where the Composite Operator (CO) is carefully either Distribution or Accumulating stock (Phase B). Once this is done the TR ends in a Spring; Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) or Last Point of Supply (LPSY) / Support (LPS) Before breaking the TR (Phase C). Once it has been marked out of the TR a backup to the trading range first takes place (Phase D) before the Markup or Markdown can begin (Phase E). Also notice how the Volume RSI can assist in providing a clue if an accumulation or distribution is forming.
Flash note: Telkom - Triple Breakaccording to our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids, "TKG is making a triple break: the 50dma, 200dma and nearly through the downward trend line. "
Telkom - Triple BreakTKG is making a triple break: the 50dma, 200dma and nearly through the downward trend line.
