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VODACOM GROUP LTD

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VOD trade ideas

Probabilities of further upside on JSE's Vodacom share price?JSEVOD fell off a cliff from its all-time high of R186.99 in August 2017 and left a gap between R177.10 and R168.81 while going on a downward trajectory, reaching lows of R90.70 around March 2020. We then saw a bounce rally taking us to R163.48 before sellers stepped in around April 2022 to have price sniff R85.44 by April 2024. We have seen a positive recovery since then, with price painting what seems to be an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. The bullish crossover of the 50 and 200 Day EMA has also already occurred with the Daily RSI firmly in bullish territory. Since August 2024 a bullish flag seems to also be developing as the right shoulder of the H&S pattern, giving added confluence to probabilities of further upside. Seeing that price is still only hanging around the 50 Day EMA, there is a slight possibility that sellers might have their last and final show of strength from a zone around R110.00 ~ R111.00 to pull price back to R99.20 where we expect conservative buyers to pick the stock up for a rally to R138.86 and beyond. Earnings data coming out on 11 November 2024 might, if positive, act as a catalyst for buys up to a resistance zone around R116.22 which will need to be overcome and positively retested for aggressive buyers to step in. Recommended BUY Position: R99.20 (Conservative) with a Stop Loss of R96.00 R117.20 (Aggressive after testing R116.22) With a Stop Loss of R113.30 Take Profit 1: R138.86 Take Profit 2: R156.30 Take Profit 3: R188.80 Take Profit 4: R430.00 (Much later in life)
JSE:VODLong
by Source_Sailor
Our opinion on the current state of VODACOM(VOD)Vodacom (VOD) is South Africa's largest airtime and data provider for cell phones. It is a subsidiary of the international company Vodafone. Its competitors are MTN, Cell-C, and Telkom. The cell phone industry has been hammered by a steady decline in voice revenue which has to some extent been compensated by a sharp rise in data usage. The disadvantage which Vodacom has as an investment is that a foreign parent owns it. This was graphically demonstrated when its share price fell 7% in two days because it was feared that its parent company would be pressured to sell off its non-European subsidiaries. Vodacom has businesses in Mozambique, Tanzania, the DRC, and Lesotho. Now the group is looking to develop a business in Africa's fastest-growing economy, Ethiopia, with a population of 105 million. On 2nd December 2019, the Competition Commission ruled that Vodacom and MTN had to cut their interconnect fees by between 30% and 50%. Much of Vodacom's revenue comes from interconnect fees and it saw its share price drop by 5%. The company is launching a "super-app" in conjunction with Jack Ma's Alipay to boost its non-voice revenue. On 10th November 2021, the company announced that it was entering into a new venture called "Infraco" with Remgro in which it would own 30% potentially rising to 40%. This venture will incorporate Remgro's Dark Fiber Africa (DFA) and Vumatel and Vodacom will inject R9bn in cash. The idea is to dominate the fibre business in South Africa. It has also spent R4bn to mitigate the impact of loadshedding. We believe that this share will perform well, but may take some time to reach former heights. In its results for the year to 31st March 2024, the company reported revenue up 26,4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 10,8%. The company said, "Our acquisition of Egypt contributed significantly to the 29.1% increase in Group service revenue, supported by a resilient performance in our largest market, South Africa. A 6.4% increase in net profit showcased the robustness of our strategy and our execution track-record of adapting to changes in our operating environments, despite elevated global economic pressures." In a trading update for the 3 months to 30th June 2024, the company reported group revenue up 1,5% in constant currencies and 10% in normalised terms. Egypt grew service revenue by 43,7% in local currency and financial services revenue by 87%. The company said, "We now process US$400 billion in mobile wallet transaction value annually." Technically, the share has been falling since its high of 16214c on 1st April 2022 and we suggest waiting for a clear break up through its downward trendline which may now be happening. It looks cheap at current levels with a dividend yield (DY) of around 4,96% - but it is in an environment where the technology and regulation shift continuously making it risky.
JSE:VOD
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of VODACOM(VOD)Vodacom, as South Africa's largest provider of airtime and data for cell phones, plays a crucial role in the telecom sector. It operates as a subsidiary of the international conglomerate Vodafone, facing competition from MTN, Cell-C, and Telkom. The industry has seen a significant shift with a decline in voice revenue, although this has been somewhat offset by a dramatic increase in data usage. One of the challenges Vodacom faces is its ownership structure, with a foreign parent company, which has shown to impact its market valuation negatively. For instance, concerns about Vodafone potentially being pressured to divest its non-European subsidiaries led to a 7% drop in Vodacom's share price over two days. Vodacom's operations span several countries including Mozambique, Tanzania, the DRC, and Lesotho, and it is also exploring opportunities in Ethiopia, which is Africa's fastest-growing economy with a population of over 105 million. Regulatory challenges have also affected Vodacom. On 2nd December 2019, the Competition Commission mandated a reduction in interconnect fees by 30% to 50%, significantly impacting Vodacom's revenue, as a substantial portion comes from these fees, causing a 5% drop in its share price. Innovations such as the launch of a "super-app" in collaboration with Jack Ma's Alipay aim to boost Vodacom's non-voice revenue. Additionally, a strategic partnership announced on 10th November 2021 with Remgro to create "Infraco" sees Vodacom holding an initial 30% stake, potentially increasing to 40%. This venture, integrating Remgro’s Dark Fiber Africa (DFA) and Vumatel, represents Vodacom's ambitious plan to dominate the fibre market in South Africa. The company has also invested R4 billion to mitigate the effects of load shedding, highlighting its proactive approach to dealing with operational challenges. For the fiscal year ending 31st March 2024, Vodacom reported a significant 26.4% increase in revenue, although headline earnings per share (HEPS) decreased by 10.8%. The acquisition of operations in Egypt significantly contributed to a 29.1% rise in group service revenue, supported by strong performance in South Africa. Despite global economic pressures, a 6.4% increase in net profit reflects the effectiveness of Vodacom's strategic and operational adaptability. From a technical standpoint, the share price has been on a downward trend since reaching a high of 16214c on 1st April 2022. Given the current trend, it may be prudent for investors to wait for a clear upward break through the downward trendline before considering an investment. Despite its attractive dividend yield of around 5.13%, Vodacom operates in a dynamic and often unpredictable environment characterized by rapid technological changes and regulatory shifts, presenting a considerable risk.
JSE:VOD
by PDSnetSA
VODACOM GROUP (VOD)They are down nearly 40% since its peak in March 2022. This pullback mirrors similar trends observed in other South African Inc stocks. Currently, the share price has retreated to the lower trend line that has been established since 2022, finding support at R86.50. This pullback may potentially position the stock for a rebound. Our Entry: R88.00 There are some concerns to consider: - Upcoming earnings around the 13th of May - Elections scheduled for the 29th of May
JSE:VOD
by MarketMeistersTrading
VODACOM - Long Idea RTMThe stock has had a major pullback since hovering near the downtrend 200d moving average and hitting a recent swing high of R110 . Im looking for a relief bounce here towards R100. A daily close below R90 negates the idea. Note: This is a reversion to the mean trade (countertrend). Mean Reversion Concept: Mean reversion suggests that asset prices will eventually return to their long-term mean or average. This theory is grounded in the belief that asset prices and historical returns will gravitate toward their average levels over time. The greater the deviation from this mean, the higher the probability that the asset’s price will move closer to it in the future.
JSE:VODLong
by Trader-Dan
2
Our opinion on the current state of VODVodacom (VOD) stands as South Africa's largest provider of airtime and data services for cell phones, operating as a subsidiary of the international telecommunications company Vodafone. Competing with MTN, Cell-C, and Telkom, Vodacom operates in an industry that has faced significant challenges, including a continuous decline in voice revenue, partially offset by a substantial increase in data usage. One notable disadvantage for potential investors in Vodacom is its foreign ownership, demonstrated when its share price dropped by 7% in just two days amid concerns that its parent company might be pressured to divest its non-European subsidiaries. Vodacom currently operates in countries such as Mozambique, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Lesotho, with plans to expand its presence in Ethiopia, Africa's fastest-growing economy, boasting a population of 105 million. In December 2019, the Competition Commission ruled that Vodacom, along with MTN, must reduce their interconnect fees by 30% to 50%. This decision significantly affected Vodacom's revenue, particularly as a substantial portion of its income comes from interconnect fees. To diversify its revenue streams, the company has partnered with Jack Ma's Alipay to launch a "super-app." On November 10, 2021, Vodacom announced a new venture called "Infraco" in collaboration with Remgro, in which it would initially own 30%, with the potential to increase to 40%. Infraco incorporates Remgro's Dark Fiber Africa (DFA) and Vumatel, with Vodacom injecting R9 billion in cash. This strategic move aims to establish dominance in South Africa's fiber industry. In its financial results for the six months ending on September 30, 2023, Vodacom reported a 35.5% increase in revenue, primarily driven by the acquisition of Vodafone Egypt. However, headline earnings per share (HEPS) declined by 4.2%. The company highlighted the growth in financial services customers, including Safaricom, with over 73.5 million users transacting US$1 billion per day. Financial services revenue also surged by 39.9% to R6.2 billion, contributing 10.5% to Group service revenue. Additionally, Vodacom invested R4 billion to mitigate the impact of load shedding. Although Vodacom is expected to perform well, it may take some time to reach previous highs. Rumors of Vodafone potentially selling Vodacom in February 2023 caused a sharp rise in the share price. Technically, the share has been on a downward trajectory since reaching a high of 16,214 cents on April 1, 2022. Potential investors may want to wait for a clear break above its current downward trendline. Despite the challenges, Vodacom appears attractively priced with a dividend yield (DY) of approximately 5.42%, but it operates in an environment characterized by constant technological advancements and regulatory changes.
JSE:VOD
by PDSnetSA
Vodacom Nearing Yearly Low PriceVodacom is now on the low end of a yearly cycle with price near the COVID low, this is the longest yearly decline for Vodacom. We will use the weekly chart to gauge the right entry point, we look for the following parameters: 1. A swing low (confirmed) 2. A close above the 10 week moving average (confirmed) 3. A close above the green declining resistance (pending) The current week is showing a shooting star candle & another when viewing the daily chart. We can expect price to consolidate below the green line forming a bull flag or might want to revisit the low of 4 December setting a double-bottom. We await the fulfilment of the set parameters for an entry. More risk accepting investors can use a portion of the capital to enter at these levels aiming to achieving full holding when all conditions are met.
JSE:VODLong
by runyamhere
Poor vodacom - Target hit at R92.00 but very unexpectedlyUm... Ok I did not expect that. Look Vodacom has been going through a very tough down channel since April 2022. The high was around R160.00. The downtrend then subsided but started moving in a very eloquent channel with highs and lows. Well we expected the channel to hit the high and drop down to R92.00. But not in one candle suddenly. I don't even know if there was enough liquidity to get most people out, but here we are. So the channel will continue until it breaks. And Range Bounded traders will be thrilled to continue profiting going long and short. Are you?
JSE:VODShort
by Timonrosso
Our opinion on the current state of VODVodacom (VOD) is South Africa's largest airtime and data provider for cell phones. It is a subsidiary of the international company Vodaphone. Its competitors are MTN, Cell-C and Telkom. The cell phone industry has been hammered by a steady decline in voice revenue which has to some extent been compensated by a sharp rise in data usage. The disadvantage which Vodacom has as an investment is that a foreign parent owns it. This was graphically demonstrated when its share price fell 7% in two days because it was feared that its parent company would be pressured to sell off its non-European subsidiaries. Vodacom has businesses in Mozambique, Tanzania, the DRC and Lesotho. Now the group is looking to develop a business in Africa's fastest-growing economy, Ethiopia, with a population of 105m. On 2nd December 2019, the Competition Commission ruled that Vodacom and MTN had to cut their interconnect fees by between 30% and 50%. Much of Vodacom's revenue comes from interconnect fees and it saw its share price drop by 5%. The company is launching a "super-app" in conjunction with JackMa's Alipay to boost its non-voice revenue. On 10th November 2021 the company announced that it was entering into a new venture called "Infraco" with Remgro in which it would own 30% potentially rising to 40%. This venture will incorporate Remgro's Dark Fiber Africa (DFA) and Vumatel and Vodacom will inject R9bn in cash. The idea is to dominate the fibre business in South Africa. In its results for the six months to 30th September 2023 the company reported revenue up 35,5%, as a result of the acquisition of Vodaphone Egypt, and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 4,2%. The company said, "Financial services customers, including Safaricom on a 100% basis, 73.5 million, transacting US$1 billion per day. Financial services revenue increased 39.9% to R6.2 billion contributing 10.5% to Group service revenue". It has also spent R4bn to mitigate the impact of loadshedding. We believe that this share will perform well, but may take some time to reach former heights. On 17th February 2023 the Business Day reported on rumours that Vodaphone might be selling Vodacom causing the share price to rise sharply. Technically, the share has been falling since its high of 16214c on 1st April 2022 and we suggest waiting for a clear break up through its downward trendline which has not yet happened. It looks cheap at current levels with a dividend yield (DY) of around 5,19% - but it is in an environment where the technology and regulation shift continuously.
JSE:VOD
by PDSnetSA
Vodacom ($JSEVOD): Close to Weekly LowVodacom is seeking a weekly and yearly low price, good entry points around this zone, we are close to COVID lows. Price has found itself back in the channel that formed from April 2022 peak, currently at resistance of the channel. If we get a rejection we can expect price to attempt lower than R106.78, that would mean another lower risk entry, so it would make sense to deploy 50% of intended holding at current price then the balance on swing low after a lower low or on closing above the green line. Green trendline = Weekly cycle confirmation on closing above on a weekly basis Purple trendline = Yearly cycle confirmation on closing above on a monthly basis
JSE:VODLong
by runyamhere
Vodacom ($JSEVOD): Risk & Opportunity in OneVodacom presents a scenario that can play out both ways while at the same time offering good reward. - Price broke out of a falling wedge (bullish) - Did a backtest but was resisted by the 200 week moving average - One view is to see it in a consolidation before taking out resistance - Second view is that price wants to dip further before going higher. This view will be validated by price going lower than R120.90 & 119.81 to test the R115.62 low. - Breaking out above 200DMA/WMA and the upper resistance would allow going long Further price action will reveal the hidden hand of Mr. Market, we can only wait in anticipation. I have set alerts for both scenarios on the blue trendlines.
JSE:VOD
by runyamhere