KAS ready for next move upKaspa is looking extremely strong for the next move up. Has had a beautiful consolidation period, now we wait to see how it interacts with the 0.19 region.
KASUSD trade ideas
Do you agree?I believe this to be the next bull for Kaspa on the Daily time frame, what do you think?
Kaspa price action for September 2024Based on the Pi Cycle Top Indicator I am calling for a $1.16 price for Kaspa by end of September 2024. I am basing this using the Pi Cycle Top Indicator which is an amazing metric that predicts the peaks on BTC and since Kaspa follows BTC in both a macro and micro position I thought why not use the Pi Cycle Top on Kaspa as well. There are other metrics used here and just keep in mind that all this is highly speculative but interesting as ascending channels and fibonacci levels help pinpoint possible price action.
KASPA Still bullish and still strong above the 1D MA200.Back in November (Nov 21 2023) we made a case of why Kaspa (KASUSD) could be imitating Bitcoin's and Ethereum's trend and came up with a logarithmic curve for its growth:
As you can see, in 5 months since then, it has respected this trend-line to perfection. Zooming in on the 1D time-frame, we can see that a shorter term Channel Up pattern is involved. Every time the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and kept the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) intact, while the 1D RSI started rising (Bullish Divergence), the market accumulated.
Once it closed a 1D candle back above the 1D MA50, it was a bullish break-out signal. As a result, we are waiting for this break-out to buy and target 0.22500 (+105% rise from the Higher Low).
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KAS showing strength, could be about to break outAre we ready for an explosion in KAS price? After playing around with the long-term blue support line (lower bound of an ascending channel on the log chart), and simultaneously bouncing off the upper bound of a previous consolidation zone (green rectangle in left chart), KAS looks like its still building strength. Its now attempting to break out from a shorter term descending wedge/potential bull formation. The next few days or even hours could be instrumental in whether KAS enters another big movement up. The daily stochastic briefly touched the oversold region two days ago and has flipped back up which is potentially bullish. With hash rate increasing, and price proportionally much lower currently (since it's generally correlated to hash rate), this also is a very positive sign.
KASUSD breakdown or still preparing for pump?More lines.
As stated yesterday, KAS is playing with the long-term logarithmic channel. Let's see what happens.
Stochastic has ticked over from oversold on the 4hr chart.
KASUSD for more downside?As described previously, the blue channel line shown on this logarithmic chart has been a marker of discount buying strength for KAS since May 2023. In the past, I have used this as a tool (along with other technicals) to buy more KAS. In my last post about KAS I alluded to a negative break through this channel if KAS is obeying the power law, however, given my track record with the logarithmic channel and KAS's technical repetition I favoured a bullish outcome, with the green circle being somewhere we might see buying strength.
Now KAS is potentially, and possibly convincingly (time will tell), breaking down below this line. It's important to note that there are many zones of support below this area, so a significant price drop is not necessarily on the cards, however with pretty much all mid-to-large market-cap ALT projects dropping so far this week, we will need to look at how they perform to gauge strength of the market as a whole.
Going forwards, we can also use the charts at kasping.streamlit.app/ to look for buying zones, in particular the rainbow channel tab. In the past, KAS has bounced from, or near to, the green support line numerous times. Currently, the green line sits at $0.09., however, in the bearish scenario, it's unlikely to be a straight drop. The current angle of descent suggests an intersection at $0.1, which coincides with a support line (green line) on my chart, and psychological support. According to the 'future power law' chart at the link above, if KAS does indeed obey the power law, then the fair value should drag price action back up in the mid-to-long term. And of course, as is the case always with technicals, they could be wrong. We just use them as a measure of risk, and a pattern recognition tool. However, in my experience data analysis and technical patterns are king.
KAS ready for next big moveKASUSD has one of the most organic charts in crypto currently. As I've stated before, its no surprise when you consider it had a fair launch, with limited marketing (therefore it hasn't drawn in social media moon bois that will pump it and dump it), and, so far, no major tier-one exchange listings. This reduces the risk of exposure to 'market makers' and manipulation by exchanges. It has lead to KAS being claimed to be, along with BTC, one of the few cryptos to follow the power law. Check out charts.bitbo.io and kasping.streamlit.app to see power law corridors for both tokens.
In its relatively short life, it has repeated basic technical patterns time and time again. It now looks to be doing the same again; after breaking out of a bull flag, creating a consolidation area and dropping back down into said area, it then bounced off a long term ascending logarithmic channel showing 0.786 Fibonacci convergence (green circle). That ascending channel goes almost all the way back to its inception, with KAS sticking to it religiously since May last year. If it repeats a similar move to the one shown in Sep '23 we could see $0.45 region around the time of the BTC halving.
It must be noted, I have seen more and more technical analysis stating that KAS needs a much bigger retracement down to the $0.09 area before a parabolic move up. That would require it breaking out of the ascending logarithmic channel it has been loyal to since May '23. If it does that, it's likely more closely following the power law and guidance would come from the rainbow chart available at the streamlit link above (for instance, according to the power law, it won't hit a fair value of $0.45 until September '24, although this is the fair value, so it could reach an instantaneous value of $0.45 before then and still obey the power law). Additionally, with this being KAS's first bull run, I wouldn't be surprised to see it far exceed the currently estimated power law fair value at times, and skew the fair value higher.
KASPA Bull RUN projectionI found a very intresting pattern in KASPA
we started with a Breakout to 0.618 FIB , takes 56 DAYS
Then we have a Retest to , 0.38 to 0.5 FIB , takes 28 DAYS
Then we have the main Extention leg to 6.618 FIB of the correction retest wave , takes 81 Days
This pattern has played out already 2.5 Times perfectly , according to this projection I have charted KASPA based on Time and Price which leads us to a local top around 0.56$ in 8th of July , then we will enter into a heavy correction again to 0.20$ around Augest 26th , Then we have our breakout again around Novermber 4th , Then the Global bottom would be December 9th and we will lead our most Glorious Bull run to 2$ , maybe much higher if this pattern continues our next stops would be any station before 8$ .
Let's see if it plays our
Kaspa strong case for $0.35 by April 7th 2024I have 5 reasons why I believe Kaspa can reach a target price of $0.35 by April 7th:
1) We have an ascending wedge starting April 2nd, 2023 from April peak to November 19th peak. This wedge will act as resistance once Kaspa hits the top of this wedge by April 7th.
2) We have two previous percentage increases (green box) 331% & 373% which when averaged out gives us a 352% increase for this next breakout.
3) We have a fib resistance at 2.72 extension when calculating from November 18th high to the low of January 12th, 2024.
4) Two last breakout averages take us to the 2.72 fib extension
5) The Fibonacci channel in red is also right at the target 2.72
KAS ripping it to ATHI've been able to follow and pick up positions on every major move in KAS since September 2023 and its all due to simple good old fashioned trend lines on a log chart. Keeping it simple. Why does this work so well on KAS? Because its a fair launch that's undergoing extremely organic growth. That's exceedingly rare in crypto these days.
The obvious 20 cents is the next big marker to tackle and see what DAG power can do. Last time it pumped from a sustained down trend it posted an almost 400% move. Now there's nothing to say that will happen again but if it does, it will take KAS to 37 cents around the time of the halving (maybe quicker).
Bull flag KASNew non-parallel channel bull flag formed. Non-parallels can indicate a reduction in buying power, so time will tell. But a possible route for KAS if BTC pumps more today.
KAS pumping So far today, KAS has made absolute mincemeat of the immediate resistance, which, including a re-test after previous change of character, tested it 4 times prior. Where will DAG power take us, to new ATH high today?
KAS still consolidatingKAS is showing some good strength by consolidating. Its slowly creeping across, with the logarithmic regression line coming up to meet it and the moving averages levelling out (NB: my MA's are set more for scalping). Going to be interesting to see what happens now between here and the halving. It could be preparing for a BIG move up. If it drops below the regression line, personally I would then expect a large retracement to pick up support.
Will KAS drop to the logarithmic regression and bounce?It's always shaky business making projections off of a logarithmic regression band with so little data, given that the Kaspa token is still relatively young. Will the current crypto drop drag KAS down to the logarithmic regression band (roughly coincides with 0.618 fib and previous short-lived buying zone) at $0.088 today? Or will it drop further to the 0.786 fib at $0.065 where there is no obvious confluence.
If it goes further down we will enter new support discovery, likely coming in at $0.05, a roughly 67% drop in price from ATH. This would be a very deep regression, which, if it finds solid support, could be healthy in the long run, but would show weakness in the short.
KAS SHOWING CONSOLIDATION STRENGTHI know this irks some crypto investors and moon boys, but I believe there will be at least a 20% correction in the market before or around the time of the halving. Not only has this happened before but generally its a healthy thing for the resulting bull run as it flushes out weak liquidity and can filter poor projects.
KAS is currently showing strength by consolidating around the 0.10-0.12 region. It's entirely possible it pumps next from here. However, if it does correct, I feel the lower logarithmic band in blue will be a major point to start building positions again. It could coincide with a 0.618 retracement and a previous, admittedly short-lived consolidation zone (orange circle). There is a linear support line (not shown on view) lower than this that could also act as support.
KASUSD about to break through descending channel?Is KAS about to break out of the descending channel? Will likely need more volume, but lets see. I fortunately have my KAS bags packed from mid 2023; if I was looking to get in on KAS I would be cautious at this time to buy with alt coin weakness, and uncertainty around the BTC ETF. IF it comes down to green support areas, and especially if it tanks it to the lower trend line then I certainly will be buying more baby bags though.
KASUSD POTENTIAL SHORT-TERM WEAKNESSAs with all trading systems, there are no guarantees with technical analysis. The ascending channel may not be the best-fit or may be a curve rather than a straight trend line, the instrument may not be following a logarithmic progression, the markets may completely surprise us with more powerful fundamental news etc.
With KAS today, its playing with both the short-term trend line and the ascending channel. Will gravity win? Lets see how the daily closes.
If it breaks through both lines convincingly (entirely possible with recent alt coin weakness), buying strength may come in again at 0.08-0.09 (mid-term trend line + potential confluence with 0.618 + previous small consolidation zone (yellow circle)).
KAS Follow the 23% rule.. Target .08c 😎💯🤑😜Not financial advice.
Trade idea moving forward.
Short idea
Entry current price.
Stop loss .122
Take profit target .08-.081
Please look on chart at each time we lose these triangle's.
They are 23% windows. If we have a 3 day close below .103 our next target will be .08-.081
Classic distribution patterns and thick orange trendline is the ascending line from its previous breakout of .05c range
A retest of .07c is healthy for the token. Very good long term potential.
Always remember to practice patience
#PIK
Patience is Key
#TLAW
Think Like A Whale
KASUSD consolidation pre breakoutDespite its extremely fair launch, large community of HODLers and organic growth so far, KAS was hit hard by the recent small drop in BTC, as evidenced by the very short-lived spike down. Here, it picked up liquidity and positions at the aforementioned (see comment on previous post about KAS) ascending trend line.
Where do we go from here? Well KAS, like ICP, has some of the best tech in all of crypto. Around the corner we have Rust speed tests being available tonight, and its highly likely Smart Contracts will come to KAS; since its inception, the KAS development team have aimed to incorporate smart contracts at some point. Ultimately, the KAS DAGchain is superior to most block chain tech in the current top 20, so really it's only a matter of time (especially if we see
more real world utility/adoption). If KAS is destined for top 10 long-term, then we are still extremely early.
Potentially, KAS is forming a bull flag/consolidation zone before another break out.
Kaspa ($KAS) - Long Setup on MS Break and Reclaim of Range EqCurrently looking for a structure like this to play out on Kaspa.
Criteria is
- sweep in demand while holding that range low with only deviations below as acceptable
- consolidate inside range for an ultimate reclaim of key S/R in green zone
Time will tell and will only take the trade if it plays out similar to this structure, timing of it has next to no meaning but will use this timeframe (daily).
Cheers
Kaspa prices for 1st quarter 2024Please keep in mind that these are only speculative prices based on certain data and metrics. I have been wrong many times but when I see fib zones plus moving averages colliding together into the future it makes you wanna consider the options. The halving for Kaspa is approaching May of 2024 and from previous price action we have a run up at least a month before this event. This is why I believe that we may see prices on April 7th to be within $0.44 on the 2.618 fib or as high as $0.88 on the 3.618 fib zone as well. The bottom side for Kaspa could be as low as $0.08 based on the 200 day moving average coming in contact with the fibzone that is also making contact with this Pitchfork fib area. Granted, we don't have a Binance or other Tier 1 Listing, we could see a healthy draw back down to $0.08 before we make our next aggressive move up.
