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BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Jan 2025)BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Jan 2025)BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Jan 2025)

BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Jan 2025)

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BTCUSDF2025 trade ideas

BTC to be rejected at 200 daily SMA on the CME?BTC is presently testing the 200 SMA resistance (thick orange line) on the daily on the BTC CME futures chart. If it drops below the 200 VWMA (thin orange line), then it will likely fall back to retest the Ichicloud at ca. 19.4K USD, recently flipped bullish again (green). This will also enable the CME gap to be closed sooner rather than later first, before a possible continuation upward. The PRISM Oscillators Set also indicates overbought condition (red background lited) presently. Outlook: Bearish on the short-term (due to possible healthy price correction); and presently, still bullish on the mid-to-long term.
CME:BTC1!
by cybernetwork
2
hmm... whatever happens, i dont see bullish things... theres a wyckoff distribution scenario, theres the consolidative move followed by bear break, and theres the sell sided disequillibrium case. whatever happens, i think we have to pull back big in btcusd because of the power of trumps fed. im still bullish long term btcusd. bitcoin could go to $3k bitstamp, and coinbase could collapse before i would sell the core position at this point long. theres definitely puts to be had futures, and theres definitely short selling in all sorts of exchange and derivative product security as well as profit taking or stop loss and institutional activity bearishly due to the instability of the interest. the contrarian indication is sell and the major wave of buying is behind spot and actual names on the chain that the latency behind the product unit and the network is an astonishing rate given the exchange rate and comparison to the mining space as well as the comparison to alts. its not alt season, either. basically sell crypto, but its not impossible to see higher prices especially with how oversold the hourly is.
CME:BTC1!Short
by cerealpatterns
Who are the most influential crypto personalities? The cryptocurrency market is largely decentralized, in theory, meaning that no single entity or group controls it. However, there are many individuals and organizations in the market that have significant influence and followers, who they can use to manipulate cryptocurrency prices. Some of the most prominent crypto influencers include: Vitalik Buterin: Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has the ability to impact daily cryptocurrency prices, particularly Ethereum. His opinions and statements about the development and future of Ethereum and the broader crypto market can influence traders' and investors' sentiment and thus, affect the demand and price of Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. For example, on June 17th, 2021, Buterin tweeted about the high transaction fees on the Ethereum network and the need for a scaling solution. This caused a stir in the crypto community and resulted in a drop in Ethereum's price. His comments reflected the growing frustration among Ethereum users and developers over the network's scalability challenges. Elon Musk: As the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and one of the world's wealthiest individuals, Elon Musk is a highly influential figure, and his statements and actions related to cryptocurrencies generate a lot of interest and attention. One notable example of Elon Musk's impact on the crypto market occurred on February 8th, 2021, when he tweeted, "Just bought some Bitcoin," along with a broken heart emoji. This tweet caused a surge in Bitcoin's price, with the cryptocurrency rising by up to 20% in the hours following the tweet. The market's reaction to Musk's tweet demonstrates the influence that well-known figures can have on traders' and investors' sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Changpeng Zhao (CZ): As the CEO of one of the largest and most influential crypto exchanges, CZ's opinions and actions regarding cryptocurrencies generate a lot of interest and attention. He has a large following on social media, where he often shares his thoughts on the crypto market and the future of Binance. For example, on May 7th, 2021, CZ tweeted about Dogecoin, expressing support for the meme-inspired cryptocurrency. This caused a surge in Dogecoin's price, with the cryptocurrency rising by up to 25% in the hours after the tweet was sent. Jack Dorsey: As the former CEO of Twitter and current CEO of Square, Dorsey's statements and actions related to cryptocurrencies generate interest and attention from the media and the public, sometimes affecting certain cryptocurrency prices. For instance, in 2021, Dorsey announced that he had bought Bitcoin and was a fan of the cryptocurrency, which resulted in a positive reaction in the market and a surge in Bitcoin's price. Additionally, his company Square has invested a significant amount in Bitcoin and supports buying and selling Bitcoin through its Cash App, which has helped increase the visibility and adoption of cryptocurrencies. Michael Saylor: Saylor is the CEO of MicroStrategy, a publicly traded company, and has become a prominent figure in the crypto community due to his company's investments and public statements on the subject. One example of Saylor's impact on the cryptocurrency market occurred in August 2021, when he spoke at a virtual conference about MicroStrategy's investments in Bitcoin. During his speech, he praised Bitcoin as a "superior store of value" and encouraged other companies to follow MicroStrategy's lead. This received widespread attention in the crypto community and helped boost investor confidence in Bitcoin. As the CEO of a publicly traded company with significant investments in Bitcoin, Saylor's opinions and statements carry significant weight and can have a significant impact on market sentiment. These are just a few examples of popular crypto influencers; there are many more individuals and organizations These are just a few examples of popular crypto influencers, there are many more individuals and organizations that have a significant following and influence in the crypto market. It's important to note that these influencers' opinions and predictions may not always be accurate and should not be used as a sole source of information when making investment decisions. Additionally, there are also large organizations that hold a significant amount of cryptocurrency, such as investment funds, hedge funds, and mining pools that can affect the market through their buying and selling activities. It's important to keep in mind that the crypto market is highly speculative and decentralized, which makes it hard to pin down who are the actual personalities that control the market. Additionally, the crypto market is highly influenced by market sentiment, government regulations, and overall adoption.
CME:BTC1!
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC analysis for most possible directionDidn't post yesterday, was busy --- This is copy paste from yesterday $BTC not looking so hot atm #BTC RSI is sinking fast $TOTAL 3 = #altcoin Also looks weak but nowhere near as much Facing heavy resistance We're likely due for a lil pain from here --- TODAY 1/2 $BTC @ an important area #BTC holding @ dotted line support #bitcoin trading UNDER Red Mov Avg for 2nd day Buy volume lowers, sells > than buys but not much RSI MUST NOT tread sub 50 area (middle) We break Green Mov Avg still ok but MUST HOLD Breakaway Gap area #crypto 2/2 What about $BTC vs #altcoins? $TOTAL 3 = #altcoin Staunch resistance right above Yet holding better than #BTC 4Hr shows some buys coming back See the Inverse head & shoulder? Ugly but it's there #crypto had huge run, it's okay to REST as long as it doesn't fall asleep
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin Head & Shoulders!CME:BTC1! BTC has formed a head and shoulders. Timeframe 12H. Clearer on 4H where you can look for entries for pullback to breakout level which has confluence with 50MA. Because BTC is in such a parabolic move the possibility of a fake out of the H&S neckline could occur as a liquidity run to pick stops. Look to long the break back in of the fake out. Normally BTC doesn't provide pullback entries when it's on a parabolic move so always have Plan A, Plan B setup. If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
CME:BTC1!Long
by imr4nkh8n
Rising Bull and Raging Bear in BitcoinNewton is known to have said that "The motion of heavenly bodies can be computed, but not the madness of people". That aptly fits the times we live in. Bitcoin (“BTC”) prices have rallied 40% since the start of the year despite bleak economic outlook. A short squeeze in the flagship crypto asset where $850M in short positions was liquidated in just three days is cited as the primary reason for the rally. After the US Fed, ECB, and BoE rate announcements last week, where does BTC go from here? There are ample reasons to remain bearish as much as there is to turn bullish. Are we witnessing a dead cat bounce? Or is this the dawn of a new era where rates flatten or start to soften paving the path to a bull run? Amid the chaos, one thing remains clear. Low volatility. Both realized and implied volatility for BTC remains low. In a market that could either crumble or rally, this case study argues that a long strangle position in BTC options provides a compelling >2x reward to risk ratio. A long options position gains not only from a substantial price move but also from expanding volatility. THE UNCERTAIN ROAD AHEAD FOR BTC Outlook for BTC prices looks uncertain. Bullish tailwinds and bearish restrainers are concurrently at play. 1. Mixed Technical Signals BTC is approaching its 200-day moving average which has served as strong resistance in 2022. During the previous bear market rally, prices failed to breach past $25,000 per BTC, indicating strong resistance at this level. Current RSI at 79 points to BTC being overbought with a risk of downward price correction. However, the 20-day moving average inching towards the 200-day moving average might create the settings for a price rally. Also, the 10-day MA has crossed over the 200-day MA, forming a golden crossover which might be a harbinger of rally ahead. Using this same chart, we highlighted before that BTC prices are now just below the long-term MA (200-week MA) that has proven to be a strong indication for a long-term trend. The divergence from this trend over the past half-year might have been aberrations caused by multiple black swan events. 2. Price volatility related to GBTC lawsuit outcome Also as mentioned previously , Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC is an event to watch. Hearing date has been set for March 7th. If unsuccessful, Grayscale has announced plans to liquidate a portion of the trust to bring the GBTC shares back up to NAV of its holdings. This would involve heavy BTC selling pressure. GBTC has $14.5B in AUM with GBTC shares trading at a 41% discount. If GBTC succeeds, BTC prices could rally in sign of favorable regulatory acceptance. However, ETF’s creation/redemption mechanism would allow GBTC to rebalance their holdings resulting in spot BTC sales to arbitrage the discount. 3. Long term holders showing resilience and not selling Recent price rally has restrained long term holders from dumping their holdings. Growing number of long-term holders indicates conviction and that combined with climbing retail participation sets the tone for a bull run. 4. Hash Rate Rebound in 2023 BTC mining is profitable again. Rebounding hash rates, stable energy costs, and elevated BTC prices is a relief to the miners. Miner reserves are at a yearly low removing the risk of miners dumping their inventory. Miner sales are now limited to BTC mined daily. 5. Growing Open Interest but mixed directional positioning Asset managers have increased their net long positions by 53% between December 27th and January 24th. Meanwhile, leveraged funds continue to remain net short during this period. Clearly institutional investors remain puzzled on BTC price outlook. In a sign of growing investor attention, overall OI is up 8.4% over the last month and nearly 20% over the last quarter TRADE SET UP With adequate arguments both in favor of and against BTC prices, establishing a directional position is difficult. BTC carries a reputation for triple-digit volatility over its 14 years trading history. Intriguingly, BTC volatility has been soft in the recent past. Low volatility allows investors to acquire options at reduced costs. Being price agnostic, this study makes a case for a delta-neutral long strangle to secure a 2.27 reward to risk ratio. A long strangle combines of two trades. One, an out-of-the-money long put (at a strike below the current bitcoin price) to gain from a falling market. Two, an out-of-the-money long call (at a strike above the current bitcoin price) to gain from a rising market. A strangle allows the holder to extract an outsized gain (profit) for every unit of pain (costs incurred for premiums). This asymmetric pay-off in an options portfolio is referred to as convexity in finance. It enables holders to extract higher rewards for each unit of risk. Leg 1: Long Put options on BTCK3 (options on futures expiring in May 2023) with a strike price of $21,000 at a premium of $1,635. Leg 2: Long Call options on BTCK3 (options on futures expiring in May 2023) with a strike price of $29,000 at a premium of $1,105. Entry: $2,740 Break-even points: When CME-BTC-Futures touches $30,740 or $18,260. Target: BTC at either $33,600 or $13,700 Profit at Target: $1,860 (if BTC rises to $33,600) or $ 4,560 (if BTC drops to $13,700) Stop-loss level: At 30% of the drop in options premium. Loss at Stop-loss: $820 This strategy will start generating returns when the underling future trades past break-even points. It will also generate returns as volatillity expands fueling increase in strangle value. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME:BTC1!
by mintdotfinance
9