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SOUTH KOREAN WON / U.S. DOLLAR

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KRWUSD trade ideas

ridethepig | KRW Q3 Macro Flows📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update: Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S. The next moves are cooked and almost ready to go... since the centralisation of EM FX has taken place, the board is forced to exchange in the same swing. Vaccine headlines are coming in from all angles, more fiscal and CB stimulus are also there for the last few days of July for markets to get stuck into. Typically we will see the ebb and flow in risk start by August, thin and choppy liquidity markets in the middle of summer make forr useful loading zones in calm waters. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
The USELESS SOUTH KOREAN WON: VIX of Currency MarketsSome Say USDKRW Is the VIX if the Currency Market. South Korea's currency is pretty much worthless currency relegated to being used as an "entertaining" VIX that pops up and falls down like a K-pop star. One can see leading up to the dot com bust and previous busts that the USDKRW pair rose up in a VIX like way. Will history repeat itself? I am posting this to track it for future reference leading up to a recession. A chart of the US yield spread:
by Rocketman
8
Similar to 1930 but with currency devaluation-> LONG USD"So what do all these very different recessions have in common? For one, oil price, demand and supply sensitivity appear to be consistent, and frequent historical precursors to U.S. recessions. A spike in oil prices has preceded nine out of 10 post-WWII recessions." Oil has fallen to 22$ and is shocking global funding markets. Not enough dollars to create 15Trillion Dollars needed offshore and onshore shortage. All EMs who have debt or credit with the U.S will be affected.
Long
by joshglobal
USDKRW - Covid-19 Hits Korean WonAs the increase of Covid-19 cases in South Korea keeps increasing (Currently 433 cases), I expect the Korean Won to drop heavily during the following days and weeks. The new cases have increased the fears about greater transmission outside China. I expect the USDKRW to go higher, especially since the possibility of closing businesses due to the virus. I am expecting the USDKRW to go to higher than 1244 and then break to around 1273 in the following days or weeks. The last time USDKRW went to 1273 was in May 2010.
by Joel_Ochoa
Turning point for the South Korean WonPicture perfect technical setup here for a short play to the downside for USDKRW. - We hold a guarded optimistic view on economic recovery across the South Korean economy following revisions in growth expectations. We see slowing growth bottoming out with sensitivity now positioned to the upside and a gradual rebound across the semiconductor sector as a hedge against further monetary easing. - Confirmation via BOK commentary should see decisive technical conviction through the neckline and flows into the buyside floor as optimism rises. - Put exposure added across our macro and directional portfolios.
Short
by Portier
ridethepig | KRW 2020 Macro MapKorea's economy looks set to be forming a meaningful floor in Q4 and with a helping hand from a temporary pause in protectionism we should see KRW remain in bid for the first half of 2020. For the domestic story, Korean exports have fallen which spilt over to the demand side. With this in mind, should the USD devaluation / reflationary theme pick up pace for the first half of 1H20 it will mean repricing in KRW. On the monetary side, cuts are widely priced from BoK for January. Fundamental risks to the thesis com from US-China trade and the significance of USD devaluation. On the technicals, a textbook Steel Resistance has held at 1219.xx after completing an ABC target sequence. Very high odds a meaningful top is in place and invalidation to this count comes in above 1200. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. Another round of 2020 FX maps coming over the next few sessions. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies: NZDUSD USDJPY EURUSD EURSEK USDCNY
Short
by ridethepig