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KGD1! trade ideas

Buying the Dip or Catching a Knife? My Gold Setup Explained.Entered a long position on XAU/USD from the 1H demand zone following sharp intraday selling into a key support level. With gold hovering near $3,300 and a significant testimony from Fed Chair Powell on deck, the setup aligns with both technical rebound potential and fundamental uncertainty that could fuel upside. The goal here is to play the liquidity vacuum left after aggressive positioning was cleared, with tight invalidation and asymmetric reward. Technicals: • Entry aligned with prior price inefficiency and confluence of multiple demand zones • 1H structure shows clear deviation below the range with immediate buy-side response • EMA channel flattening, indicating potential compression ahead of expansion • First target: $3,352 • Risk-managed with defined stop-loss below $3,260 Execution Note: This is not a “hold forever” trade. It’s an opportunistic reaction to unwind + sentiment imbalance. Fundamentals • Gold saw a 25% surge in 2024 due to safe-haven demand and dovish policy, but enters 2025 under pressure from: ▫️ A strong USD ▫️ Higher cost of carry ▫️ Speculators taking profit • Fed policy remains the core variable: ▫️ A hawkish tone from Powell could weigh on price ▫️ Rate cuts would likely revive bullish momentum • Central bank demand remains supportive • Geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran) could trigger safe-haven bids again. Bearish headwinds: • Waning bullish momentum per RSI divergence • Reduced rate cut expectations post-election • Powell’s testimony could revive volatility either way. This is a short-term tactical long, not a macro bet. With sentiment temporarily overextended and key support defended intraday, this is a high R/R window to exploit Powell-related volatility. Let’s see how price reacts into $3,350+. Any sustained strength there would open room toward $3,400, while failure would confirm a retest of $3,260s. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by AR33_
Navigating Gold Futures: Support, Resistance, and ProjectionsCOMEX:GC1! The chart appears to depict a clear five-wave pattern: I, II, III, IV, and V. Waves I to III show strong upward movements, indicating bullish sentiment. Wave IV looks like it could be a corrective phase, with a potential dip before another upward movement in Wave V. Support and Resistance Levels: The horizontal lines around 2,800 and 2,575.3 indicate critical Fibonacci retracement levels (38.20% and 50%). If the price approaches these levels during the correction, they could serve as support, making it a potential buying opportunity. RSI Indicator: From the bottom indicator (RSI), we can see fluctuations in momentum, which can aid in timing trades. Look for interpretations of the RSI: if it trends towards the extremes (overbought/oversold), that could signal reversal points. Future Projections: Should the market respect the outlined support levels, Wave V could potentially push towards a new high above 4,000 as indicated by the upward projection. Market Sentiment: Overall, the pattern suggests a bullish outlook long-term, but caution is warranted during corrective phases as prices might retrace towards support levels.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Trwin
Gold May Find Support From These Various FactorsGold May Find Support Amid Concerns Over U.S. Debt Sustainability, Economic Weakness, and Renewed Geopolitical Tensions Gold prices are holding steady today, near $1,353 per ounce in spot trading, in what is expected to be a low-liquidity session due to the early closure of U.S. markets. This follows three consecutive days of gains. The yellow metal’s subdued movement comes as markets await key labor market data that may offer further insight into the health of the U.S. economy, especially after the recent shock from ADP figures. Gold continues to find support from several underlying factors that could sustain its upward trend this week. These include rising uncertainty around the long-term sustainability of U.S. public finances and the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability have intensified following the introduction of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which combines tax cuts with spending reductions. In an opinion article for The New York Times , former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers warn of the bill’s potentially severe consequences, including persistently high interest rates, reduced business confidence, falling investment, and the risk of a financial shock that markets may struggle to absorb. This could also leave the economy more vulnerable to economic and geopolitical threats. Such risks may erode investor confidence in U.S. government debt, potentially boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset even in an environment of elevated bond yields and prolonged high interest rates. On the geopolitical front, the specter of renewed escalation in the Middle East looms, and this time, the consequences could be more severe. Amid conflicting reports and statements regarding the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, both sides appear to be preparing for the possibility of renewed hostilities. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, and hardline voices continue to call for a return to conflict. In an opinion piece for The New York Times, former National Security Advisor John Bolton described negotiations with Iran as ineffective and dangerous, calling instead for regime change and the use of force. While previous rounds of conflict have not caused lasting damage to the global economy or energy supply chains, a new round may prove more disruptive. According to Reuters , Iran has reportedly loaded naval mines onto vessels, raising fears that it may attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would cross a critical threshold and turning a contained conflict into one with global economic implications. The Strait of Hormuz handles over one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports. However, Iran may avoid this step as long as its own oil exports continue flowing through the strait, as was the case during the last conflict in June. On the trade front, there is growing optimism about the potential for new agreements that could ease tensions that have disrupted global supply chains and threatened U.S. and global economic growth. This optimism follows President Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam. There is also hope that progress can be made with China. Recent reciprocal steps, that involve the easing of restrictions on rare earth exports by China and some relaxation of U.S. technology export controls, suggest that the de-escalation agreed upon earlier in Switzerland could hold, potentially laying the groundwork for a broader trade agreement. Samer Hasn
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa
Gold Update: Possible Triangular Consolidation Before New RallyIt looks like corrective wave 4 is in the making within a large Triangle 3 waves A, B and C already emerged in 3-waves structure which confirms triangle Wave D should stay under the top of wave B Wave E could either touch or break down the support line It should keep above the valley of wave C Target area changed higher as this consolidation tends to narrowing within a contracting triangle. Lowest target now $3,900 Optimistic target is at $4,300 Breakdown below $3,123 would invalidate the pattern
COMEX:GC1!Long
by aibek
Double Top Breakdown at Resistance ZoneThe chart reveals a classic Double Top pattern formation near the 3,360–3,480 resistance zone, followed by a clear bearish rejection (highlighted with red arrows). This confirms the presence of strong supply pressure in that region. 🔍 Key Technical Highlights: 🔺 Double Top Pattern The price formed two swing highs near the resistance zone, failing to break above. After the second peak, the price started declining, confirming the reversal pattern. 📉 Bearish Channel The recent downtrend is contained within a descending channel, with consistent lower highs and lower lows. Price broke below the neckline of the double top pattern around 3,270. 🎯 Target Projection Based on the height of the double top pattern, the projected downside target is near 3,207.5, aligning perfectly with the support zone marked below. 🟠 Historical Support Areas The large orange circles indicate key reaction points, confirming that the 3,207–3,220 area has acted as support in the past. 📊 Outlook: If the current bearish momentum continues, price is likely to head towards the support target zone at 3,207.5. Any pullback toward 3,320–3,350 could provide a shorting opportunity with stops above the recent highs. 🔧 Bias: Bearish 📍 Resistance: 3,360–3,480 📍 Support: 3,207–3,220 📍 Target: 3,207.5
BIST:XAUUSD1!
by MrStellanSight
8
Gold, GC!, Sideway to the Downside (Long Term)06/30/2025, 10:30 PM PT GC! is currently at its max around 3,500. On the Weekly MACD, the crossover between MACD lind signal line already happened. There is also a bearish divergence on weekly chart. On the Daily chart, RSI just crosses below 50 on RSI, and MACD shows weakness on the bull (it still not in the bear's territory just yet). Reversasl to bear side may happen if price stays below 3,200 Bullish will continues if price break out of all time high Current range for big timeframe from 3,200 - 3,500 Plan for swing trade: Bullish Case (short term): break trendline. If hold above 3,360, price could go up to 3,400 -> 3,450 Bearish Case (short term): If price rejects and stays below 3,360, price could go down 3,310 -> 3,280 ***Disclaimer: This analysis and trade plan are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by haytinnhau123
1
STEEL-NERVE SETUP – ARE WE RE-LIVING GOLD’S 2020 BEAR-TRAP?Retail sentiment is ultra-bearish, positioning is cooling, Silver is outperforming and the S&P 500 is screaming risk-on … exactly the cocktail we saw in June 2020, right before Gold & Silver exploded higher. 1️⃣ WHY THIS FEELS LIKE 2020 AGAIN 2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally) Read-through > 70 % of TradingView ideas are bearish 💬 > 60 % were bearish Crowd may be offsides again Managed-money net-longs -18 % from April peak 📉 -25 % from March peak Powder for fresh longs First monthly ETF outflow (-$1.8 bn) 🚪 Record inflows Capitulation, not euphoria Gold/Silver ratio down to 94 ⚖️ Fell to 95 Silver leadership = bottoming tell S&P 500 at new ATH 📈 S&P at new ATH Risk-on backdrop identical 2️⃣ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % (2020: -1 %) → smaller monetary tail-wind. Gold already at inflation-adjusted ATH → upside could be shorter & sharper, not a fresh super-cycle (yet). 3️⃣ CHECKLIST FOR A REAL BEAR-TRAP Signal Watch-level Gold holds $3 200–3 250 (100-d SMA + fib) Daily close above zone Gold/Silver ratio breaks < 90 Momentum confirmation CFTC net-longs < 150 k Position flush ETF flows turn positive Fear → FOMO S&P stumbles / vols spike Classic risk-bid for Gold Need 3 of 5 boxes ticked to validate the squeeze thesis. 4️⃣ CATALYST CALENDAR 3 Jul – NFP: sub-75 k print could fire the opening salvo. 9 Jul – Tariff freeze decision: escalation would revive safe-haven demand. 15 Jul – CPI & 30-31 Jul – FOMC: dovish turn + soft data could complete the squeeze. Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinion for educational purposes only; it is not financial advice. Trading futures and commodities involves substantial risk and can lead to total loss of capital—do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified professional before acting.
COMEX:GC1!
by AustrianTradingMachine
1
Is time to be a Gold Bull?Gold has been steadily repricing lower prices since June 16th after it took out May 16th's High. On Friday, June 27th, Gold moved into the Daily BISI (+FVG) zone and retraced upside. We may see another lower prices to purge the sellside liquidity before reverse upside for the short term. I don't expect another ATH next month, unless we have the right catalyst to do so. I'd anticipate for the price action to remain inside a large consolidation within the current Dealing Range as indicated in the chart. My Bullish case will be if price breaks above the 3500 convincingly, and the Bearish case if it breaks below 3120 convincingly also. In the meantime, we'll have to be satisfied playing tic tac toe inside the range. Don't get married to a strict bias at this time. Stay nimble, and let the price presents itself to you.
COMEX:GC1!
by Martingale_FX
Gold 4H-figment of my imagination. Chart Overview: Timeframe: 4H (MCX) Current Price: ₹95,524 Volume: 1.6K Trend: Short-term bearish 📉 Observations: 1. Break of Support Zones: Multiple support zones have been drawn on the chart: Around ₹96,200, ₹94,700, ₹91,800, and finally near ₹86,600–82,200. Price is now trading below the ₹96,200 support, showing clear weakness. 2. Structure: This looks like a lower high – lower low formation. Recent price action has broken previous swing lows, indicating bearish momentum continuation. 3. Next Key Supports: ₹94,700 – could act as the next immediate support (minor bounce possible) ₹91,800 – stronger historical zone ₹86,600 to ₹82,200 – major demand zone (strong support last seen in April) 4. Volume Analysis: Volume hasn’t spiked significantly on the recent fall, suggesting no panic yet, but also lack of buying interest. 📌 Conclusion: The trend is weak and corrective, favoring sell on rise until price reclaims ₹96,200 convincingly. Safe buy zone: Near ₹91,800–₹86,600, if price shows reversal signals. Watch out: If ₹91,800 breaks, ₹86,600 or even ₹82,200 could be tested.
MCX:GOLD1!
by Pushpmegh
GOLD - Lovers Elliott wave - looking strong Short/Medium termGOLD-----Daily counts indicate Excellent bullish wave structure. Both appear to be optimistic and this stock invalidation number (S L) wave 2 low target short / long term are already shared as per charts correction wave leg seems completed (C) Investing in declines is a smart move for short/ long-term players. Buy in DIPS recommended Long-term investors prepare for strong returns over the next two to five years. one of best counter Every graphic used to comprehend & LEARN & understand the theory of Elliot waves, Harmonic waves, Gann Theory, and Time theory Every chart is for educational purposes. We have no accountability for your profit or loss.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by wavesmonk
Gold - Watching for Trendline Retest Gold has shown a significant breakout from a recent downtrend resistance line on the 4-hour chart. The price action suggests a shift in momentum, but a potential retest of the broken trendline offers a high-probability entry point. Technical Analysis: Trendline Breakout Confirmed: The provided chart clearly shows XAUUSD breaking above a descending trendline that has defined the recent short-term consolidation/downtrend. This breakout indicates a potential resumption of bullish momentum or the end of the consolidation phase. Immediate Resistance: The price has encountered resistance near the area of the previous daily high (PDH) or a local swing high around 3,376.6. This level will be the immediate target for buyers if the breakout holds. Potential Retest Zone: A common occurrence after a trendline breakout is a "retest" of the broken resistance level, which now acts as support. The trendline itself and the immediate support levels identified on the chart (e.g., 3,335.8 to 3,316.6) form a potential retest zone. Trade Idea & Strategy: The primary trade idea is to wait for a technical confirmation of the breakout by observing a retest of the broken trendline. Entry Strategy (Bullish Confirmation): Wait for the price to pull back towards the broken trendline (approximately 3,330 to 3,345 area, depending on the exact slope). Look for bullish reversal signals (e.g., candlestick patterns like hammers, engulfing patterns, or significant buying volume) at the trendline support. Enter a long position upon confirmation of support at the retest zone. Potential Target 1: The recent swing high/PDH area around 3,376.6. Potential Target 2: If Target 1 is cleared, the high of 3,476.0 (or previous major resistance levels). Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the low of the retest candle or below the significant support area (e.g., below 3,300), invalidating the bullish setup. Alternative Scenario (Bearish Rejection): If the price fails to hold the trendline support during the retest and decisively breaks back below it, the breakout may be considered a false breakout. In this scenario, the market could revert to the previous downtrend structure. Disclaimer: This is an analysis for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always perform your own research and risk analysis before trading.
COMEX_MINI:MGCQ2025Long
by rassen21
NY Open PlaybookGold is extended heading into NY, but structure is clean and bullish. We’re sitting above PDH and holding a reclaimed supply zone. If $3,364 holds, we expect continuation toward $3,384–$3,390. If NY rejects at the top, watch for a clean reversion to $3,346 and possibly lower. Key decision level is $3,364. Key Levels PDH - $3,359 Previous day high (currently holding above) PDL - $3,310 Previous day low Displaced HVRA - $3,346 – $3,350 Reclaimed supply → demand (buy zone) FR Demand Block - $3,324 – $3,335 Fair range support if trend fails Primary HVRA - $3,372 – $3,384 Main target / short trigger zone ATE Extension - $3,390+ Final bullish extension target Bullish Scenarios (b]Reactive Long Entry: $3,346 – $3,350 SL: $3,343 (aggressive) or $3,339 (safe) TP1: $3,364 TP2: $3,372 TP3: $3,384 Momentum Breakout Long Trigger: Break + hold above $3,364 SL: $3,358 TP1: $3,372 TP2: $3,384 TP3: $3,390+ Bearish Scenario Rejection Short Entry: $3,372 – $3,384 (on wick/failure) SL: $3,390 TP1: $3,358 TP2: $3,346 TP3: $3,335 Direction is binary at $3,364. Whether we rotate down or extend up, both plays are valid execute with discipline, not bias.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by stakkd
Gold vs UNI – Is UNI in the Early Stages of AccumulationThis comparison between Gold (MGC1!) and Uniswap (UNIUSDT) on the weekly timeframe suggests that UNI could be in Phase 1 of a buy program, similar to how gold accumulated before its major breakout. 📌 Key Observations in the Chart Comparison: PHASE 1: The Accumulation Zone (Green Highlighted Area) Gold went through a long accumulation period (2013–2017), trading in a sideways range before its parabolic impulse leg kicked in. UNI is currently in a similar consolidation phase, potentially in the early stages of accumulation. The monkey face + pointing emoji suggest a "stealth phase" where most retail traders remain unaware of the underlying accumulation. Old High & Market Structure Gold formed a major high, crashed, and accumulated before breaking out. UNI also reached an all-time high (~$44), crashed, and is now ranging in what looks like a potential accumulation phase. Similar structural formation suggests UNI could be following gold’s footsteps. Impulse Leg & Breakout Potential Gold’s first major breakout came after a long accumulation, followed by a massive impulse move (Phase 2). If UNI is mirroring gold, the next breakout could start the impulse leg leading to a retest of old highs and beyond. Standard Deviation Extensions (STDVN) – Potential Price Targets Gold reached 0.5 and 1 STDVN levels after its breakout, which became short-term targets before continuation. If UNI follows a similar trajectory, targets could be $44.77, $64.98, and eventually $85+ if the accumulation plays out. 🔮 What This Means for UNI? Early accumulation phase means the smart money is likely positioning. Price compression leads to expansion—UNI could be preparing for an explosive move. Similar to gold, UNI could break above accumulation and enter Phase 2, targeting 0.5 and 1 STDVN levels. If UNI truly follows gold’s structure, long-term price discovery is on the table. 🚨 Lord MEDZ Trading Perspective "Not financial advice, but let’s keep it real…" Gold showed the exact same pattern before making a historic move. UNI is mirroring the early accumulation phase. This is the shakeout before the breakout. Smart money is accumulating while retail panics. Patience = Wealth. Stay ahead of the crowd. 🚀 UNI could be setting up for something massive. 🚀
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by Skinwah
Gold Trade Setup – Watching the BreakoutGold Trade Setup – Watching the Breakout Gold is currently consolidating between $3,200 and $3,500, with price action now pressing against a descending resistance line that has triggered multiple rejections in the past. We’re approaching a key decision point. I'm favoring the upside in this setup — the momentum and structure suggest a potential breakout — but I fully recognize the downside potential and want to be prepared for both scenarios. Tight risk controls are key here. Here’s how I’m positioned: • Long Entry: Around $3,333 - Stop Loss: $3,330 - Target: $3,363 (looking for this level to be reached by end of day) • Short Entry: Around $3,336 - Stop Loss: $3,340 - Take Profit: $3,303 The structure could resolve sharply in either direction, so I’m staying nimble and reactive.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford